India Redraws Its Red Lines with Pakistan
In one of the deadliest attacks in Kashmir in years, 26 Hindu tourists were killed by Pakistan-backed militants in Pahalgam. India has responded by suspending the Indus Waters Treaty, expelling Pakistani nationals, and downgrading diplomatic ties — signalling a hard shift in its Pakistan policy. The move marks a strategic recalibration, with India now leveraging water, diplomacy, and economic tools alongside potential military action. For Pakistan, this attack risks severe diplomatic fallout, heightened security pressure, and long-term isolation.
In a devastating blow to Kashmir’s hard-won stability, 26 tourists were gunned down on April 22 in the scenic Baisaran meadow near Pahalgam, Jammu & Kashmir, in what has become one of the deadliest terrorist attacks on civilians in recent memory. The assault, launched by armed militants disguised in uniform, targeted unsuspecting Hindu tourists. The Resistance Front (TRF), a proxy of Pakistan-based Lashkar-e-Taiba, claimed responsibility.
The attack shattered a period of relative calm in Kashmir. Since state elections in late 2024 — the first after months of President’s Rule and communication blackouts — the region had witnessed a resurgence in tourism and economic activity. In 2024 alone, the Valley welcomed 23.6 million tourists. That fragile recovery now stands threatened.
In the immediate aftermath, Prime Minister Narendra Modi returned early from his diplomatic visit to Saudi Arabia and convened an emergency security huddle. Union Home Minister Amit Shah, already in Srinagar, has taken charge of the on-ground response. Intelligence suggests that five to six militants, including Pakistani nationals, infiltrated across the border in advance of the attack — confirming cross-border involvement.
India’s Retaliation: From Tactical Precision to Strategic Coercion
India’s initial response has been measured, but decisive. In an unprecedented move, the Cabinet Committee on Security announced the suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) — a landmark 1960 water-sharing pact often hailed as a rare success in India-Pakistan ties. This is not just symbolic: it’s the first concrete step towards using treaty frameworks as tools of strategic leverage. Further, India has shut all movement across the Attari-Wagah border, cancelled visas issued to Pakistani nationals, ordered the expulsion of Pakistanis currently in India, and initiated a sharp reduction of diplomatic staff in both capitals. Defence attaches have been declared persona non grata. Security forces nationwide have been placed on high alert.
These steps represent a recalibration of India's policy architecture vis-à-vis Pakistan: from reactive diplomacy to multidimensional escalation — military, diplomatic, and economic.
Will India Escalate Militarily?
The public mood is clear: there is a growing expectation of kinetic retaliation, akin to the 2016 surgical strikes or 2019 Balakot air raids. But the strategic question for India’s security establishment is more complex - can India dominate the escalation ladder if Pakistan responds?
Surgical strikes alone won’t suffice. A credible deterrent must be backed by readiness for prolonged engagement. The real test for India is not just about launching a strike — it’s about absorbing the blowback and continuing the pressure. The government will ensure that any military action must be matched with stockpiled munitions, protected civilian zones along the LoC, and a clear doctrine of escalation control.
Beyond the battlefield, India is signalling that its playbook is expanding. The government is open to considering a wide range of tools including:
Economic Blacklisting: Any global firm with commercial operations in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK) may be barred from doing business in India.
Cultural Isolation: Pakistani entertainers, athletes, and artists could be banned from Indian platforms.
Sporting Sanctions: India may push for Pakistan’s suspension from international cricket and other federations.
All of these are non-military yet potent forms of pressure that strike at Pakistan’s global visibility and soft power — areas it has historically used to counterbalance diplomatic isolation.
For Pakistan, India's response will be crucial. The country is already facing a severe economic crisis, with dwindling reserves and a dependency on IMF bailouts; internal insurgencies in Balochistan, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, and rising discontent in Sindh; and a diplomatic credibility gap, with few takers globally for its repeated denials of terror sponsorship. By provoking India at a moment when it is more assertive and less constrained by global ambivalence, Pakistan risks triggering a chain of escalation it is poorly equipped to handle.
If India sustains pressure along the LoC or initiates cross-border kinetic strikes, Pakistan could be forced into a two-front security dilemma — fighting domestic insurgents in the west while defending against a more active Indian posture in the east. The suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty further threatens Pakistan’s long-term water security. The suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) will have cascading impacts across its agriculture, energy, and internal stability. Even if actual water flow isn’t blocked in the short term, the psychological disruption and legal ambiguity may undermine investor confidence in key water-linked sectors, such as agriculture and hydropower. It also sets a precedent — Pakistan can no longer take "stability through treaties" for granted.
Diplomatically, Islamabad may once again turn to Beijing, Riyadh, and Washington for damage control. Beijing will be a key concern for India. In our view, the Indian government will resort to military action like seen earlier in 2016 and 2019 as surgical strikes and assert economic pressure through suspension of the water treaty. However, India is unlikely to escalate this into a full conflict, especially as it remains stretched along with border with China. It is noteworthy that while India will dominate in a war with Pakistan, China is likely to use such a situation to its advantage in the east and seek to acquire land along the states of Ladakh and Arunachal Pradesh. Further, there is increased tension between India and Bangladesh currently. As a consequence, India will seek to not escalate this incident into a full-blown conflict but resort to other measures.
India has sent a clear message: its tolerance threshold has changed. The “threshold of terrorism” doctrine — where India retaliates only if an undefined line is crossed — is being replaced by a doctrine of proactive, layered deterrence. This new approach weaves together punitive military strikes, treaty re-negotiation, trade leverage, and reputational warfare. It is aimed at not just punishing one attack, but recalibrating the cost of future provocations. The Pahalgam massacre, while tragic, may become a turning point — not just in Kashmir’s trajectory, but in India’s national security doctrine. The next few weeks will reveal whether India’s actions are isolated moves — or part of a long-term strategy to shift the India-Pakistan paradigm.