From Tariffs to Technology: JD Vance’s Four-Day Engagement in India

US Vice President JD Vance’s four-day visit to India from April 22 to 25 marked an important recalibration of US-India relations under the second Trump administration. Blending strategic intent with economic urgency, Vance’s trip reinforced India’s standing in Washington’s shifting global priorities, while exposing the challenges that lie ahead in translating ambition into outcomes.

Vance’s visit—his first to India—was rich in symbolism, coming early in his term and following visits only to Europe and Greenland. It underscored India’s growing weight in American strategic thinking. His engagements sought to balance cultural affinity with the Indian diaspora, strategic cooperation through the Quad, and renewed economic alignment across trade, energy, and technology.

Economic Gains and Frictions

At the heart of the visit was a push to redefine the trade relationship. The US and India finalized the Terms of Reference for a bilateral trade deal, with an ambitious target to double trade to USD 500 billion by 2030. Vance made it clear that the US would abandon the “preachiness” of past administrations and seek a more pragmatic, parity-based partnership.

Vance’s trip yielded important steps toward a new bilateral trade agreement. The two nations finalised the Terms of Reference for negotiations, aiming to double trade to USD 500 billion by 2030. India’s willingness to consider tariff reductions on USD 23bn of U.S. agricultural imports—particularly almonds and apples—marked a notable, if politically sensitive, concession. Meanwhile, the U.S. pressed for lower duties on manufactured goods and greater market access for pharmaceuticals and IT services, sectors where India's protectionist instincts run deep.

Parallel discussions on technology and energy added depth to the economic agenda. The Semiconductor Supply Chain Partnership was reaffirmed, with future joint fabrication projects on the table. Energy talks touched on boosting U.S. LNG exports to India and potential American investments in India’s strategic petroleum reserves. Notably, Elon Musk's planned 2025 visit aims to fast-track Tesla's production ambitions and Starlink’s market entry into India.

However, major points of friction remain. India’s high average agricultural tariffs (39%, compared to the U.S.'s 4%) continue to complicate negotiations. Digital trade also remains a thorny issue, with American tech companies resisting India's data localisation mandates that they see as restricting market access.

Geopolitical Dimensions: Quad Strengthened, But Balancing Act Persists

From a strategic standpoint, Vance’s visit reinforced India’s central role in the Quad grouping (U.S., India, Japan, Australia), positioning New Delhi as a key counterweight to Beijing’s influence in the Indo-Pacific. Defence cooperation discussions emphasised expanding joint military exercises, co-developing platforms, and enhancing U.S. defence technology transfers. Yet the absence of any agreement on high-end defence sales, such as the F-35 jets, signals a continued American wariness about technology sharing.

China's reaction was predictably dismissive. State media portrayed the visit as unlikely to ease India's economic concerns or alter its "Make in India" agenda. It's worth noting India's  careful calibration—strengthening ties with Washington while avoiding actions that could provoke economic retaliation from Beijing, with whom it shared over USD 127bn in trade in 2024.

The establishment of a negotiating roadmap is a positive development after years of stalled talks, but history suggests that execution will be the real test. Agricultural tariff cuts face domestic opposition, given the political sensitivities surrounding India's farmers. On the U.S. side, demands for expanded access in IT and pharmaceuticals could clash with India's broader protectionist strategies. Defence collaboration clearly strengthens India’s deterrence posture, but it also exposes vulnerabilities if diversification of defence partnerships is not maintained. Meanwhile, India’s economic entanglements with China complicate its full-throated alignment with Washington’s Indo-Pacific strategy.

The timing of Vance’s visit, coinciding with the terrorist attack in Pahalgam, Kashmir, added a sober dimension to the dialogue. Vance offered unequivocal support for India’s counterterrorism efforts, reinforcing Washington’s zero-tolerance posture. The extradition of Tahawwur Rana earlier this year and the broader calls for deeper counterterrorism cooperation signal a hardening stance against Pakistan’s use of terror as a policy tool, though translating sentiment into sustained action will be critical.

A Critical Inflection Point

JD Vance’s visit succeeded in laying out an ambitious framework for the next phase of U.S.-India relations. However, the tensions between strategic aspirations and economic realities are clear. The administration’s pause on tariff hikes offers a fleeting window to make progress, but unless both sides are willing to make politically difficult compromises—especially on agriculture and digital trade—the partnership risks losing momentum. However, it does appear that India may be the first country to strike a deal with the US. In the Indo-Pacific chessboard, India’s balancing act between deterring China and protecting its economic autonomy will remain a defining challenge in the near term. The next six months will reveal whether India and the US can convert a renewed spirit of engagement into tangible, durable outcomes.