Emerging Asia

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May 12, 2025

Ceasefire or Reset? India Redraws the Rules
Freemium Article

May 12, 2025 6:05 AM UTC

India and Pakistan have entered a fragile ceasefire after a week of precision strikes, drone warfare, and missile exchanges. But New Delhi’s clear message—that future terror attacks will be treated as acts of war—marks a strategic shift. Deterrence in South Asia has a new author, and India is

May 09, 2025

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A Windfall with Caveats: RBI’s Likely Record Dividend
Paying Article

May 9, 2025 2:00 PM UTC

India is set to receive a record INR 3–3.5tn dividend from the RBI, offering a fiscal cushion amid softening tax revenues and rising geopolitical tensions with Pakistan. While this windfall may help the government stick to its 4.4% fiscal deficit target for FY26, it also highlights India’s growi

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India CPI Preview: Cooling Prices, Warming Room for Rate Cuts
Paying Article

May 9, 2025 9:48 AM UTC

India’s retail inflation likely fell to 3.2% in April, its lowest since 2019, driven by a sharp decline in food prices. The benign inflation print strengthens the case for another RBI rate cut as growth momentum softens. 

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Deterrence on a Deadline: India, Pakistan, and the New Escalation Paradigm
Freemium Article

May 9, 2025 6:29 AM UTC

India and Pakistan are now embroiled in their most serious military confrontation in years, with hostilities expanding across air, land, and unmanned domains. Following the May 7 cross-border strikes under Operation Sindoor, India launched a calibrated military offensive on Thursday targeting Pakist

May 08, 2025

Indonesia’s Q1 GDP Disappoints, Deepening Case for Rate Cut
Paying Article

May 8, 2025 8:05 AM UTC

Bottom line: Indonesia’s Q1 GDP growth slipped to 4.87% yr/yr, missing the 5% target as public spending declined. Household consumption edged down and fixed investment declined sharply. Looking ahead, Q2 may bring further softening. 

May 06, 2025

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Transit Revoked, Ties Recalibrated: What Bangladesh's Pivot Signals
Paying Article

May 6, 2025 5:32 AM UTC

India’s revocation of transhipment access to Bangladesh marks a broader shift in bilateral ties, driven by Dhaka’s strategic pivot towards China and Pakistan. The move reflects India’s growing unease over regional security and the erosion of mutual trust post-regime change in Dhaka. For India,

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Standoff Renewed: India and Pakistan Edge Closer to the Brink
Freemium Article

May 6, 2025 3:33 AM UTC

India–Pakistan tensions have sharply escalated following a deadly terror attack in Kashmir, prompting sweeping diplomatic, military, and economic measures on both sides. New Delhi has ordered mock civilian defence drills and restricted the flow of river Chenab. Additionally, ceasefire violations a

Indonesia’s April Inflation Hits 7-Month High on Utility Price Rebound
Paying Article

May 6, 2025 3:19 AM UTC

Headline inflation rose to 1.95% y/y in April 2025, driven mainly by higher utility costs. Food and personal care items also remained key contributors to price pressures.

April 28, 2025

From Tariffs to Technology: JD Vance’s Four-Day Engagement in India
Paying Article

April 28, 2025 6:24 AM UTC

US Vice President JD Vance’s visit to India marked a shift toward a more pragmatic and parity-driven partnership. While reinforcing trade, defence, and energy cooperation, the trip also highlighted the difficult negotiations ahead. 

April 24, 2025

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India Redraws Its Red Lines with Pakistan
Freemium Article

April 24, 2025 10:24 AM UTC

In one of the deadliest attacks in Kashmir in years, 26 Hindu tourists were killed by Pakistan-backed militants in Pahalgam. India has responded by suspending the Indus Waters Treaty, expelling Pakistani nationals, and downgrading diplomatic ties — signalling a hard shift in its Pakistan policy. T

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BI Holds Rates as Rupiah Takes Centre Stage
Paying Article

April 24, 2025 5:34 AM UTC

Bank Indonesia kept its policy rate unchanged at 5.75% in April, prioritising currency stability over immediate growth support. Despite subdued inflation and earlier indications of easing, the central bank is holding off on rate cuts amid heightened global uncertainty and rupiah weakness following U

April 22, 2025

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Bank Indonesia to Hold Rates as Currency Pressures Mount
Paying Article

April 22, 2025 6:12 AM UTC

Bank Indonesia is expected to maintain its benchmark interest rate at 5.75%, reflecting a cautious stance amid the rupiah's depreciation and mixed economic signals. With the rupiah near five-year lows and influenced by external uncertainties, the central bank is balancing the need to support economi

April 17, 2025

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India's Industrial Chill: 2.9 % Growth Signals Cooling Engines
Paying Article

April 17, 2025 1:05 PM UTC

India’s factory growth hit the brakes in February, with industrial production rising just 2.9 %, half January’s pace and the slowest since August 2024. Manufacturing and mining lost traction, while a small pickup in electricity output provided limited relief. Stalling consumer‑goods output an

April 14, 2025

Indonesia's Strategy to Counter US Tariffs
Paying Article

April 14, 2025 5:06 AM UTC

Facing a potential 32% tariff from the US, Indonesia has launched a multi-pronged strategy to fortify trade relations and ease market access for American giants like Apple and Microsoft. The government plans to lower domestic content requirements and introduce fiscal incentives to attract US investm

April 10, 2025

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RBI Unveils New Rate Cut, Shifts Stance to Accommodative
Paying Article

April 10, 2025 7:29 AM UTC

In a bid to reignite momentum, the Reserve Bank of India trimmed its key policy rate to 6% and adopted an “accommodative” stance, signalling more support could follow. With inflation now forecast at 4.0% and GDP growth projected at 6.5%, Governor Sanjay Malhotra’s forward-looking policy aims t

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Indonesia CPI Review: CPI Returns To Positive Territory
Paying Article

April 10, 2025 7:21 AM UTC

Indonesia's inflation reached a three-month high and returned to positive territory in March, recording 1.03% yr/yr. The rebound was driven by the expiry of a government electricity discount program and seasonal demand during Ramadan. The housing and utilities category saw the highest price increase

April 07, 2025

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Jakarta Under Pressure: U.S. Imposes 32% Tariff on Indonesian Exports
Paying Article

April 7, 2025 7:12 AM UTC

The U.S. has imposed a 32% tariff on Indonesian imports, citing structural trade imbalances, local content rules, and restricted market access for American firms. The move puts pressure on Indonesia’s key export sectors such as footwear, electronics, and apparel. Jakarta has opted for diplomacy ov

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Duty Bound: India’s Growth Test Amid US Tariff Heat
Freemium Article

April 7, 2025 6:59 AM UTC

The new 26% US tariff on Indian imports poses near-term challenges for India’s export sectors and small businesses, potentially shaving up to 0.5% off GDP growth. But it also opens doors for India to capture global market share as rivals like China and Vietnam face even steeper duties. With sector

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From Neutral to Accommodative? RBI Gears Up for Fresh Easing
Paying Article

April 7, 2025 3:31 AM UTC

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is scheduled to announce its monetary policy decision on April 9, 2025, following a three-day meeting of its MPC. We anticipate a reduction of 25 basis points in the benchmark repo rate, bringing it down from 6.25% to 6%. This prospective cut would constitute the seco

March 27, 2025

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March Outlook: Navigating the Turbulence
Paying Article

March 27, 2025 10:30 AM UTC

All chapters of the March Outlook are now available and simply click the link below. 

March 26, 2025

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Outlook Overview: Navigating the Turbulence
Paying Article

March 26, 2025 9:30 AM UTC

·       More tariffs will arrive from the U.S. from April with product (car, pharma, semiconductors and lumber) and reciprocal tariffs. President Trump has a 3-part approach to tariffs to raise (tax) revenue; bring production back to the U.S. and get fairer trade deals.  This means some of t

March 25, 2025

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Asia/Pacific (ex-China/Japan) Outlook: Resilience Through Realignment
Paying Article

March 25, 2025 10:44 AM UTC

·       In 2025, growth across emerging Asia will remain steady but uneven, with investment-driven economies such as India and Malaysia outperforming on the back of infrastructure and industrial policy momentum. While global demand is set to recover modestly, geopolitical friction and tariff

March 24, 2025

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China Outlook: Construction and Trade Headwinds v Policy Stimulus
Freemium Article

March 24, 2025 9:00 AM UTC

   We look for 4.5% GDP growth in 2025.  Though residential property investment will subtract less from GDP growth, net exports will also be a drag on the economy in 2025 due to the trade war with the U.S.  Further fiscal stimulus beyond March’s NPC measures will be required to achieve a 5% GD

March 20, 2025

Bank Indonesia Holds Steady Amid Fiscal Fears and Rupiah Rout
Paying Article

March 20, 2025 7:49 AM UTC

Bank Indonesia has decided to maintain its benchmark interest rate at 5.75%, reflecting a cautious stance amid the rupiah's depreciation and mixed economic signals. With the rupiah near five-year lows and influenced by external uncertainties, the central bank is balancing the need to support economi

March 17, 2025

Bank Indonesia Policy Review: Rate Pause As BI Remains Watchful
Freemium Article

March 17, 2025 6:45 AM UTC

Bank Indonesia's upcoming monetary policy decisions will hinge on a delicate balance of domestic economic indicators and global financial conditions. With a focus now tilted slightly more towards economic growth than in previous years, BI could surprise markets with its timing and decisions, dependi

March 04, 2025

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Asia Country Risk Ratings
Paying Article

March 4, 2025 11:00 AM UTC

We provide country risk reviews for Asia countries including China, India, Indonesia, Taiwan, Singapore and Thailand.  

March 03, 2025

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Trump Tariffs and U.S. Business and Consumer Sentiment
Paying Article

March 3, 2025 9:02 AM UTC

 •    Mexico and Canada are trying to frantically find solutions to delay across the board tariffs again, though the U.S. is hinting that the rate could be less than 25%.  China extra 10% tariff remains likely, as the U.S. increases trade pressure on China.  More tariffs also remain highly

February 26, 2025

India GDP Preview: Q3FY25 Growth - A Tepid Rebound
Paying Article

February 26, 2025 4:50 AM UTC

India's GDP saw a slight recovery in the last quarter of 2024, growing at 6.3% due to increased government spending. This rebound, however, still falls short of previous highs, reflecting the economy's reliance on state intervention amid weak private sector and consumer activity. Despite fiscal effo

February 24, 2025

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Ukraine Peace, U.S. Troop Withdrawals and Trump NATO Threats
Paying Article

February 24, 2025 8:27 AM UTC

·       Our baseline remains of a Russia-friendly peace deal in Ukraine, but this need not lead to a weaker European security situation.  This is our baseline (Figure 1), but does require Europe to make concessions to the Trump administration on defence spending increases and trade. However,

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Reciprocal Risks: The Stakes of U.S. Tariffs for India's Export Sectors
Paying Article

February 24, 2025 5:58 AM UTC

As U.S. President Donald Trump proposes reciprocal tariffs targeting nations like India, which impose higher duties on American goods, the trade relations between the U.S. and India face new tensions. This policy pivot coincides with efforts by Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi to strengthen bilat

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Rate Cuts on the Horizon: RBI Signals Confidence in Inflation Outlook
Paying Article

February 24, 2025 1:50 AM UTC

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is tilting toward additional interest rate cuts to stimulate economic growth, rather than exclusively focusing on controlling inflation. The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) lowered the benchmark repo rate by 25 basis points to 6.25%, citing headline inflation convergi

February 20, 2025

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Bank Indonesia Policy Review: Rate Pause As BI Steadies IDR
Freemium Article

February 20, 2025 1:25 AM UTC

In line with our view Bank Indonesia kept its policy rate steady at 5.75% in its February 18-19 meeting after last month’s surprise cut. The weakening rupiah and external uncertainties reman critical factors influencing the rate decision. The central bank is likely to assess the impact of its Janu

February 14, 2025

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BJP Ends 27-Year Drought in Delhi with Decisive Win
Freemium Article

February 14, 2025 7:06 AM UTC

The BJP ended its 27-year drought in Delhi, winning 47 seats and breaking AAP’s dominance. The victory was driven by a united party front, strong RSS ground support, success in key voter blocs, including Sikh, Punjabi, and Dalit communities and the promise of freebies. AAP’s vote share fell to 4

February 13, 2025

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Bank Indonesia Policy Preview: Rate Pause Likely as Rupiah Stability Takes Priority
Paying Article

February 13, 2025 4:55 AM UTC

Bank Indonesia is expected to keep rates steady at 5.75% in its February 18-19 meeting after last month’s surprise cut. While inflation remains low and growth is steady, the weakening rupiah and external uncertainties may delay further easing. The central bank is likely to assess the impact of its

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India CPI Review:Rate Cuts in Sight as Prices Cool
Paying Article

February 13, 2025 4:12 AM UTC

India’s inflation cooled to 4.31% in January, clearing the way for more rate cuts as food prices dipped. The RBI is shifting focus to growth. But risks remain—rupee weakness and global commodity prices could still stir inflationary trouble.

February 12, 2025

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India’s FY26 Budget: Balancing Growth, Fiscal Prudence, and Political Realities
Paying Article

February 12, 2025 4:56 PM UTC

India's FY26 budget is a strategic attempt to sustain economic expansion while maintaining fiscal consolidation, with the government targeting a nominal GDP growth of 10.1% and a real GDP expansion of 6.3%-6.8%. The budget continues its capex-led growth approach, increasing infrastructure investment

February 11, 2025

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Trump’s Tariffs: Steel Then Reciprocal and Then Cars
Paying Article

February 11, 2025 1:23 PM UTC

 The 25% Steel and Aluminum tariff could have small to modest adverse inflation and GDP growth impacts on the U.S., but the prospect of reciprocal and more product and country tariffs create trade policy uncertainty/supply chain disruption and paperwork problems.  This could amplify the impact of

February 07, 2025

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Monetary Policy Reset: RBI’s Balancing Act Begins
Paying Article

February 7, 2025 4:57 PM UTC

The RBI has cut the repo rate by 25 basis points to 6.25%, marking its first reduction in five years. While aimed at supporting growth, the central bank maintains a neutral stance, signaling caution amid global uncertainties. Inflation is projected to ease, but risks from trade disruptions and finan

February 06, 2025

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RBI Monetary Policy Preview: MPC to Deliver a Rate Cut
Paying Article

February 6, 2025 7:50 AM UTC

With the RBI’s policy review around the corner, all eyes are on how the central bank will tackle India’s slowing growth momentum and the increased currency volatility. The RBI is likely to cut rate by 25bps to 6.25% on February 8. Imported inflation will remain a key concern. 

January 31, 2025

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India Budget Preview: Balancing Growth and Fiscal Prudence: What to Expect from Budget 2025
Freemium Article

January 31, 2025 2:28 PM UTC

The FY26 Budget comes at a crucial time for India’s economy, requiring a delicate balance between fiscal prudence and economic stimulus. As GDP growth moderates, inflation continues to impact disposable incomes, and global uncertainties persist, the government is expected to focus on targeted meas

January 28, 2025

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Bank Indonesia’s Policy Shift: Is More Easing on the Horizon?
Paying Article

January 28, 2025 9:01 AM UTC

Bank Indonesia’s surprise rate cut marks a departure from its traditionally cautious approach and underscores the central bank’s growing focus on stimulating growth. While the decision provides a much-needed boost to economic activity, it also raises questions about the future trajectory of mone

January 27, 2025

Monetary Policy Watch: Will RBI Infuse Liquidity or Cut Rates?
Freemium Article

January 27, 2025 7:27 AM UTC

With the RBI’s policy review around the corner, all eyes are on how the central bank will tackle India’s growing liquidity crunch. Despite calls for rate cuts, the banking system's liquidity shortfall—hitting INR 3.3 trillion—poses a bigger challenge, keeping lending rates high and slowing c

January 21, 2025

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Rupee at Record Low: Can India Weather the Dollar Storm?
Freemium Article

January 21, 2025 5:03 AM UTC

The Indian rupee has slumped to an all-time low of 86 against the US dollar, underscoring the pressure on emerging market currencies as the dollar index surges to multi-month highs. For India, this currency depreciation signals potential disruptions in financial markets, with equities and bonds—no

January 16, 2025

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India CPI Review: CPI Cools but Target Not in Sight
Paying Article

January 16, 2025 2:27 PM UTC

India’s retail inflation eased to a four-month low of 5.22% in December 2024, driven by a seasonal decline in food prices, particularly vegetables and cereals. With inflation within the RBI’s target range, all eyes are on the upcoming monetary policy review for potential rate cuts.

January 13, 2025

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Cyberattacks and AI Misinformation: Market and Economic Fallout
Paying Article

January 13, 2025 8:10 AM UTC

   A major cyberattack is a tail risk, while a huge AI misinformation crisis is a modest crisis in our view.  Russia/China and Iran are less likely to launch a state sponsored cyberattack for geopolitical reasons and also uncertainty over president elect Donald Trump’s response.  A huge AI mis

January 10, 2025

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India CPI Preview: A Cautiously Optimistic Outlook
Paying Article

January 10, 2025 10:36 AM UTC

Bottom line: India's inflation rate for October is projected to ease to 5.2% y/y due to base effects and domestic food prices. Moderating food pressures and global commodity prices will see inflationary pressures ease in the coming months. 

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Reserves, Rates, and Reform: BI’s 2025 Strategy to Stabilise the Rupiah
Paying Article

January 10, 2025 8:06 AM UTC

Currency pressures and policy pivots define BI’s entry into 2025, with the rupiah breaching 16,000 per dollar. Strong reserves and strategic moves signal resilience, but sustaining investor confidence in the face of fiscal and structural vulnerabilities remains a tough challenge.

January 09, 2025

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The Growth-Inflation Tug of War: RBI’s 2025 Policy Outlook with a New Governor
Freemium Article

January 9, 2025 8:14 AM UTC

The Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is currently navigating a complex economic landscape marked by rising inflation and sluggish growth. The recent appointment of Sanjay Malhotra as the new RBI Governor adds another layer of intrigue to the central bank's policy directi

January 06, 2025

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Markets 2025: A Tale of Two Halves
Paying Article

January 6, 2025 8:10 AM UTC

·  For financial markets, 2025 will likely be a game of two halves.  US exceptionalism will likely drive US equities to extend outperformance in H1, while the USD rises further as tariffs (threats and actual) escalate.  However, 10yr U.S. Treasury yields will likely push higher in H2, which can

December 30, 2024

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December Outlook: The Trump Effect- Tariffs, Fiscal Shifts and Geopolitics
Paying Article

December 30, 2024 8:05 AM UTC

All chapters of the December Outlook are now available and simply click the link below.