June Outlook: Trump’s Fluid Policies

June 25, 2025 10:00 AM UTC

All chapters of the June Outlook are now available and simply click the link below. 

Outlook Overview: Trump’s Fluid Policies

June 25, 2025 7:20 AM UTC

·       President Donald Trump still wants to use the tariff tool, and we see the eventual average tariff rate being in the 13-15% area, lowered by deals but increased by more product tariffs. Any lasting legal block on reciprocal tariffs will likely see the administration pivoting towards ot

Asia/Pacific (ex-China/Japan) Outlook: Slower Trade, Softer Inflation, and Looser Policy

June 24, 2025 9:24 AM UTC

·       Asia’s growth profile in 2025 reflects a region navigating structural transition amid external strain. Investment-led economies like India are benefitting from infrastructure spending, industrial policy momentum, and political continuity. In contrast, trade-reliant markets such as V

China Outlook: Reasonable but Unbalanced Growth Trade

June 20, 2025 7:30 AM UTC

•    China GDP growth remains reasonable though unbalanced.  Net exports will take a hit from the trade freeze in April/May, with the impact likely to ease in H2 with the trade truce.  We attach a 65% probability to a U.S./China reaching a new trade deal that reduces the minimum overall tari

BI Likely to Keep Rates Unchanged Amid Global Volatility

June 16, 2025 5:41 AM UTC

Bank Indonesia is expected to hold rates at 5.50% in June after two cuts earlier this year, opting for a pause amid global uncertainty. Subdued inflation and a stable rupiah provide policy space, but the central bank is likely to wait for clearer signals from the Fed. A fresh rate cut remains likely

India CPI Review: CPI at 2.82%: Disinflation Deepens, But Risks Linger

June 13, 2025 7:18 AM UTC

India’s retail inflation dropped to a six-year low of 2.82% in May, driven by easing food prices and supported by favourable base effects. While disinflation continues to create monetary space, RBI's next rate cut will be data driven. 

Asia Country Risk Ratings

June 5, 2025 10:00 AM UTC

We provide country risk reviews for Asia countries including China, India, Indonesia, Taiwan and Thailand.  

Indonesia CPI Review: CPI Moderates Making Room For Rate Cut

June 4, 2025 9:55 AM UTC

Indonesia’s inflation slowed further in May, while the country’s trade surplus narrowed to its lowest level in five years, deepening expectations that Bank Indonesia (BI) could pursue additional rate cuts later this year to cushion slowing domestic growth.

India GDP Review: Growth Outpaces Expectations as Q4 GDP Hits Four-Quarter High

June 2, 2025 11:56 AM UTC

India’s economy grew 7.4% y/y in Q4 FY25, beating expectations and capping full-year growth at 6.5%. Strong gains in construction, services, and agriculture underpinned the recovery, while private consumption and investment strengthened. However, sustaining momentum in FY26 will hinge on broad-bas

BI Cuts Rates to Cushion Growth Slowdown as Inflation Stays Benign

May 23, 2025 10:23 AM UTC

Bank Indonesia cut its benchmark rate by 25bps to 5.50% in May, citing subdued inflation and stabilising currency conditions. With Q1 growth slowing to 4.87%, the central bank has shifted focus to supporting domestic momentum, signalling potential for further easing in the second half of 2025.

Ceasefire or Reset? India Redraws the Rules

May 12, 2025 6:05 AM UTC

India and Pakistan have entered a fragile ceasefire after a week of precision strikes, drone warfare, and missile exchanges. But New Delhi’s clear message—that future terror attacks will be treated as acts of war—marks a strategic shift. Deterrence in South Asia has a new author, and India is

A Windfall with Caveats: RBI’s Likely Record Dividend

May 9, 2025 2:00 PM UTC

India is set to receive a record INR 3–3.5tn dividend from the RBI, offering a fiscal cushion amid softening tax revenues and rising geopolitical tensions with Pakistan. While this windfall may help the government stick to its 4.4% fiscal deficit target for FY26, it also highlights India’s growi

India CPI Preview: Cooling Prices, Warming Room for Rate Cuts

May 9, 2025 9:48 AM UTC

India’s retail inflation likely fell to 3.2% in April, its lowest since 2019, driven by a sharp decline in food prices. The benign inflation print strengthens the case for another RBI rate cut as growth momentum softens. 

Deterrence on a Deadline: India, Pakistan, and the New Escalation Paradigm

May 9, 2025 6:29 AM UTC

India and Pakistan are now embroiled in their most serious military confrontation in years, with hostilities expanding across air, land, and unmanned domains. Following the May 7 cross-border strikes under Operation Sindoor, India launched a calibrated military offensive on Thursday targeting Pakist

Indonesia’s Q1 GDP Disappoints, Deepening Case for Rate Cut

May 8, 2025 8:05 AM UTC

Bottom line: Indonesia’s Q1 GDP growth slipped to 4.87% yr/yr, missing the 5% target as public spending declined. Household consumption edged down and fixed investment declined sharply. Looking ahead, Q2 may bring further softening. 

Transit Revoked, Ties Recalibrated: What Bangladesh's Pivot Signals

May 6, 2025 5:32 AM UTC

India’s revocation of transhipment access to Bangladesh marks a broader shift in bilateral ties, driven by Dhaka’s strategic pivot towards China and Pakistan. The move reflects India’s growing unease over regional security and the erosion of mutual trust post-regime change in Dhaka. For India,

Standoff Renewed: India and Pakistan Edge Closer to the Brink

May 6, 2025 3:33 AM UTC

India–Pakistan tensions have sharply escalated following a deadly terror attack in Kashmir, prompting sweeping diplomatic, military, and economic measures on both sides. New Delhi has ordered mock civilian defence drills and restricted the flow of river Chenab. Additionally, ceasefire violations a

Indonesia’s April Inflation Hits 7-Month High on Utility Price Rebound

May 6, 2025 3:19 AM UTC

Headline inflation rose to 1.95% y/y in April 2025, driven mainly by higher utility costs. Food and personal care items also remained key contributors to price pressures.

From Tariffs to Technology: JD Vance’s Four-Day Engagement in India

April 28, 2025 6:24 AM UTC

US Vice President JD Vance’s visit to India marked a shift toward a more pragmatic and parity-driven partnership. While reinforcing trade, defence, and energy cooperation, the trip also highlighted the difficult negotiations ahead. 

India Redraws Its Red Lines with Pakistan

April 24, 2025 10:24 AM UTC

In one of the deadliest attacks in Kashmir in years, 26 Hindu tourists were killed by Pakistan-backed militants in Pahalgam. India has responded by suspending the Indus Waters Treaty, expelling Pakistani nationals, and downgrading diplomatic ties — signalling a hard shift in its Pakistan policy. T

BI Holds Rates as Rupiah Takes Centre Stage

April 24, 2025 5:34 AM UTC

Bank Indonesia kept its policy rate unchanged at 5.75% in April, prioritising currency stability over immediate growth support. Despite subdued inflation and earlier indications of easing, the central bank is holding off on rate cuts amid heightened global uncertainty and rupiah weakness following U

Bank Indonesia to Hold Rates as Currency Pressures Mount

April 22, 2025 6:12 AM UTC

Bank Indonesia is expected to maintain its benchmark interest rate at 5.75%, reflecting a cautious stance amid the rupiah's depreciation and mixed economic signals. With the rupiah near five-year lows and influenced by external uncertainties, the central bank is balancing the need to support economi

India's Industrial Chill: 2.9 % Growth Signals Cooling Engines

April 17, 2025 1:05 PM UTC

India’s factory growth hit the brakes in February, with industrial production rising just 2.9 %, half January’s pace and the slowest since August 2024. Manufacturing and mining lost traction, while a small pickup in electricity output provided limited relief. Stalling consumer‑goods output an

Indonesia's Strategy to Counter US Tariffs

April 14, 2025 5:06 AM UTC

Facing a potential 32% tariff from the US, Indonesia has launched a multi-pronged strategy to fortify trade relations and ease market access for American giants like Apple and Microsoft. The government plans to lower domestic content requirements and introduce fiscal incentives to attract US investm

RBI Unveils New Rate Cut, Shifts Stance to Accommodative

April 10, 2025 7:29 AM UTC

In a bid to reignite momentum, the Reserve Bank of India trimmed its key policy rate to 6% and adopted an “accommodative” stance, signalling more support could follow. With inflation now forecast at 4.0% and GDP growth projected at 6.5%, Governor Sanjay Malhotra’s forward-looking policy aims t

Indonesia CPI Review: CPI Returns To Positive Territory

April 10, 2025 7:21 AM UTC

Indonesia's inflation reached a three-month high and returned to positive territory in March, recording 1.03% yr/yr. The rebound was driven by the expiry of a government electricity discount program and seasonal demand during Ramadan. The housing and utilities category saw the highest price increase

Jakarta Under Pressure: U.S. Imposes 32% Tariff on Indonesian Exports

April 7, 2025 7:12 AM UTC

The U.S. has imposed a 32% tariff on Indonesian imports, citing structural trade imbalances, local content rules, and restricted market access for American firms. The move puts pressure on Indonesia’s key export sectors such as footwear, electronics, and apparel. Jakarta has opted for diplomacy ov

Duty Bound: India’s Growth Test Amid US Tariff Heat

April 7, 2025 6:59 AM UTC

The new 26% US tariff on Indian imports poses near-term challenges for India’s export sectors and small businesses, potentially shaving up to 0.5% off GDP growth. But it also opens doors for India to capture global market share as rivals like China and Vietnam face even steeper duties. With sector

From Neutral to Accommodative? RBI Gears Up for Fresh Easing

April 7, 2025 3:31 AM UTC

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is scheduled to announce its monetary policy decision on April 9, 2025, following a three-day meeting of its MPC. We anticipate a reduction of 25 basis points in the benchmark repo rate, bringing it down from 6.25% to 6%. This prospective cut would constitute the seco

March Outlook: Navigating the Turbulence

March 27, 2025 10:30 AM UTC

All chapters of the March Outlook are now available and simply click the link below. 

Outlook Overview: Navigating the Turbulence

March 26, 2025 9:30 AM UTC

·       More tariffs will arrive from the U.S. from April with product (car, pharma, semiconductors and lumber) and reciprocal tariffs. President Trump has a 3-part approach to tariffs to raise (tax) revenue; bring production back to the U.S. and get fairer trade deals.  This means some of t

Asia/Pacific (ex-China/Japan) Outlook: Resilience Through Realignment

March 25, 2025 10:44 AM UTC

·       In 2025, growth across emerging Asia will remain steady but uneven, with investment-driven economies such as India and Malaysia outperforming on the back of infrastructure and industrial policy momentum. While global demand is set to recover modestly, geopolitical friction and tariff

China Outlook: Construction and Trade Headwinds v Policy Stimulus

March 24, 2025 9:00 AM UTC

   We look for 4.5% GDP growth in 2025.  Though residential property investment will subtract less from GDP growth, net exports will also be a drag on the economy in 2025 due to the trade war with the U.S.  Further fiscal stimulus beyond March’s NPC measures will be required to achieve a 5% GD

Bank Indonesia Holds Steady Amid Fiscal Fears and Rupiah Rout

March 20, 2025 7:49 AM UTC

Bank Indonesia has decided to maintain its benchmark interest rate at 5.75%, reflecting a cautious stance amid the rupiah's depreciation and mixed economic signals. With the rupiah near five-year lows and influenced by external uncertainties, the central bank is balancing the need to support economi

Bank Indonesia Policy Review: Rate Pause As BI Remains Watchful

March 17, 2025 6:45 AM UTC

Bank Indonesia's upcoming monetary policy decisions will hinge on a delicate balance of domestic economic indicators and global financial conditions. With a focus now tilted slightly more towards economic growth than in previous years, BI could surprise markets with its timing and decisions, dependi

Asia Country Risk Ratings

March 4, 2025 11:00 AM UTC

We provide country risk reviews for Asia countries including China, India, Indonesia, Taiwan, Singapore and Thailand.  

Trump Tariffs and U.S. Business and Consumer Sentiment

March 3, 2025 9:02 AM UTC

 •    Mexico and Canada are trying to frantically find solutions to delay across the board tariffs again, though the U.S. is hinting that the rate could be less than 25%.  China extra 10% tariff remains likely, as the U.S. increases trade pressure on China.  More tariffs also remain highly

India GDP Preview: Q3FY25 Growth - A Tepid Rebound

February 26, 2025 4:50 AM UTC

India's GDP saw a slight recovery in the last quarter of 2024, growing at 6.3% due to increased government spending. This rebound, however, still falls short of previous highs, reflecting the economy's reliance on state intervention amid weak private sector and consumer activity. Despite fiscal effo

Ukraine Peace, U.S. Troop Withdrawals and Trump NATO Threats

February 24, 2025 8:27 AM UTC

·       Our baseline remains of a Russia-friendly peace deal in Ukraine, but this need not lead to a weaker European security situation.  This is our baseline (Figure 1), but does require Europe to make concessions to the Trump administration on defence spending increases and trade. However,

Reciprocal Risks: The Stakes of U.S. Tariffs for India's Export Sectors

February 24, 2025 5:58 AM UTC

As U.S. President Donald Trump proposes reciprocal tariffs targeting nations like India, which impose higher duties on American goods, the trade relations between the U.S. and India face new tensions. This policy pivot coincides with efforts by Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi to strengthen bilat

Rate Cuts on the Horizon: RBI Signals Confidence in Inflation Outlook

February 24, 2025 1:50 AM UTC

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is tilting toward additional interest rate cuts to stimulate economic growth, rather than exclusively focusing on controlling inflation. The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) lowered the benchmark repo rate by 25 basis points to 6.25%, citing headline inflation convergi

Bank Indonesia Policy Review: Rate Pause As BI Steadies IDR

February 20, 2025 1:25 AM UTC

In line with our view Bank Indonesia kept its policy rate steady at 5.75% in its February 18-19 meeting after last month’s surprise cut. The weakening rupiah and external uncertainties reman critical factors influencing the rate decision. The central bank is likely to assess the impact of its Janu

BJP Ends 27-Year Drought in Delhi with Decisive Win

February 14, 2025 7:06 AM UTC

The BJP ended its 27-year drought in Delhi, winning 47 seats and breaking AAP’s dominance. The victory was driven by a united party front, strong RSS ground support, success in key voter blocs, including Sikh, Punjabi, and Dalit communities and the promise of freebies. AAP’s vote share fell to 4

Bank Indonesia Policy Preview: Rate Pause Likely as Rupiah Stability Takes Priority

February 13, 2025 4:55 AM UTC

Bank Indonesia is expected to keep rates steady at 5.75% in its February 18-19 meeting after last month’s surprise cut. While inflation remains low and growth is steady, the weakening rupiah and external uncertainties may delay further easing. The central bank is likely to assess the impact of its

India CPI Review:Rate Cuts in Sight as Prices Cool

February 13, 2025 4:12 AM UTC

India’s inflation cooled to 4.31% in January, clearing the way for more rate cuts as food prices dipped. The RBI is shifting focus to growth. But risks remain—rupee weakness and global commodity prices could still stir inflationary trouble.

India’s FY26 Budget: Balancing Growth, Fiscal Prudence, and Political Realities

February 12, 2025 4:56 PM UTC

India's FY26 budget is a strategic attempt to sustain economic expansion while maintaining fiscal consolidation, with the government targeting a nominal GDP growth of 10.1% and a real GDP expansion of 6.3%-6.8%. The budget continues its capex-led growth approach, increasing infrastructure investment

Trump’s Tariffs: Steel Then Reciprocal and Then Cars

February 11, 2025 1:23 PM UTC

 The 25% Steel and Aluminum tariff could have small to modest adverse inflation and GDP growth impacts on the U.S., but the prospect of reciprocal and more product and country tariffs create trade policy uncertainty/supply chain disruption and paperwork problems.  This could amplify the impact of