Emerging Asia
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October 02, 2024
Markets: Rate Cuts or Geopolitics?
October 2, 2024 9:36 AM UTC
Israel will likely counteract Iran, which will prompt a further missile attack by Iran. However, our bias remains that Israel main aim is to have a buffer zone in southern Lebanon up to the Latani river and not fight a prolonged war with Iran. This limits the economic fallout globally and on oil
October 01, 2024
Futures & Options Frenzy: Retail Investors Suffer as SEBI Plans Rescue
October 1, 2024 10:05 AM UTC
Retail investors in India’s futures and options (F&O) market incurred losses of USD 21.6bn over three years, with 93% of traders losing money. SEBI is planning new measures, including raising the minimum contract size and tightening risk management rules, to curb speculative trading and protect in
Indonesia CPI Review: Cooling Inflation Signals More Rate Cuts Ahead for Indonesia
October 1, 2024 9:25 AM UTC
In September, Indonesia experienced its slowest inflation in nearly three years, driven by a drop in food and transport costs. Core inflation edged up, reflecting price increases in non-essential goods. The ongoing deflationary trend since May, influenced by supply-side factors like strong harvests,
September 30, 2024
RBI’s October Rate Call: Patience May Prevail Over Pressure
September 30, 2024 6:58 AM UTC
The RBI is expected to keep interest rates unchanged in its October meeting, despite global central banks initiating rate cuts. Domestic inflation concerns and uncertainties over MPC appointments are likely to drive a cautious "wait-and-watch" approach, with potential easing only by December.
September 27, 2024
September 25, 2024
Asia/Pacific (ex-China/Japan) Outlook: Shifting Gears for Growth
September 25, 2024 7:57 AM UTC
Emerging Asian economies are poised to remain the fastest growing globally. India and Southeast Asia will drive regional resilience amid China’s cooling growth engine in 2025. For India, while the external environment remains challenging due to weaker global demand and geopolitical tensions, domes
Outlook Overview: Rate Cuts But How Far?
September 25, 2024 7:30 AM UTC
· The U.S. economy is slowing, with the critical question being whether this is a soft or harder landing. Our broad analysis leaves us inclined to the soft landing view into 2025, though we shall watch real sector data closely over the next 3-6 months to check the trajectory. Else
September 24, 2024
China Outlook: Unbalanced Growth and Slowing
September 24, 2024 8:54 AM UTC
Growth is benefitting from momentum in public investment/exports and high tech production. However, domestic demand is slower and this is a drag on H2 2024 and 2025 growth prospects. Aside from the ongoing negative drag from the residential construction crisis, consumption is also softe
September 16, 2024
India CPI Review: India's Inflation Edges Up to 3.65% in August, Staying Below RBI Target
September 16, 2024 6:55 AM UTC
Bottom line: India’s August rose to 3.6% yr/yr, rising marginally from 3.53% y/y in July, reflecting higher food prices. Anticipate increased inflation over Q4, as festive demand drives up prices and the high base effects drop out of the equation.
September 15, 2024
Sep 27 Outlook Webinar: Rate Cuts But How Far?
September 15, 2024 10:30 AM UTC
Uncertainty about whether the U.S. economy will have a soft or hard landing is growing as the market approaches Q4. This is shaping the debate regarding the scale of easing through the remainder of 2024 and 2025 by the Fed. European easing is underway, but how much further will central ba
September 10, 2024
India CPI Review: Easing Prices, but Monsoon Risks Loom
September 10, 2024 9:14 AM UTC
Bottom line: India’s August inflation level is expected to trend down to 3.5% yr/yr, from 3.53% y/y in July, reflecting higher base effects. Interest rate cut is unlikely though as the RBI perceives this as a temporary reprieve.
September 03, 2024
September 01, 2024
India GDP Review: A Sobering Start to FY25
September 1, 2024 1:53 PM UTC
India’s GDP growth slowed to 6.7% yr/yr in Q1 FY25, falling short of expectations, as reduced public spending during the election period weighed on economic activity. Strong private consumption and investment provided some support, but a decline in manufacturing growth and weak external trade damp
August 29, 2024
August 26, 2024
India GDP Preview: Slowing Growth, Solid Prospects
August 26, 2024 6:04 AM UTC
India’s Q1 FY25 (Apr-Jun) GDP is expected to moderateto 7% yr/yr. The slowdown is expected on the back of limited government spending and sluggish urban demand. Additionally, high interest rates and inflation are expected to have been a drag on growth.
August 22, 2024
Rupiah Gains Ground: BI Stays Cautious on Rate Cuts
August 22, 2024 11:26 AM UTC
Bank Indonesia held its key interest rate at 6.25% to stabilise the rupiah and attract FX inflows, while maintaining interventions in the FX and bond markets. Inflation remains within target, and GDP growth forecasts are steady. Future rate cuts depend on US Federal Reserve actions. A 25bps cut is e
August 13, 2024
India CPI Review: Cooling Inflation - Will India’s RBI Shift Gears?
August 13, 2024 8:02 AM UTC
India's inflation cooled to 3.54% yr/yr in July, marking its lowest in nearly five years and slipping below the RBI's 4% target. With food prices driving the decline, the central bank may now consider a rate cut. However, future inflation risks remain amid uncertain monsoon patterns and global price
August 11, 2024
Despite Favourable Metrics RBI Committed to Tightening
August 11, 2024 5:03 PM UTC
The RBI will retained its stance of withdrawal of accomodation and maintained benchmark rate of 6.5% in its August meeting, staying on the path of inflation target. Concerns around high food inflation and geopolitical instability ensured that the RBI remained committed to its monetary tightening sta
August 05, 2024
Monsoon Boost or Policy Shift? RBI Faces Critical Decision
August 5, 2024 6:34 AM UTC
The calls for a rate cut are rising in the Indian market, but this is unlikely to impact the RBI's upcoming decision. The RBI will retain its stance of withdrawal of accomodation and maintain benchmark rate of 6.5% in its August meeting, staying on the path of inflation target. Concerns around high
August 04, 2024
Indonesia Q2 GDP Preview: Slight Easing After a Robust Start
August 4, 2024 8:00 PM UTC
Bottom line: Indonesia's Q2 GDP growth is expected to ease to 5% yr/yr. While government consumption is expected to have remained stable, moderation in Indonesia's external sector will hold growth back. Additionally, with no longer the boost from festive demand, private consumption is also expected
July 17, 2024
Stable Rupiah, Steady Growth: Inside Bank Indonesia's Latest Rate Decision
July 17, 2024 1:13 PM UTC
Bank Indonesia held its key interest rate at 6.25% to stabilize the rupiah and attract FX inflows, while maintaining interventions in the FX and bond markets. Inflation remains within target, and GDP growth forecasts are steady. Future rate cuts depend on US Federal Reserve actions. A 25bps cut is e
July 15, 2024
Inflation Heatwave: India's CPI and WPI Climb
July 15, 2024 6:35 PM UTC
India's inflation surged in June with wholesale prices hitting a 16-month high at 3.36% y/y, driven by soaring food costs. The CPI also rose to 5.1% y/y, reversing a five-month decline, prompting caution from the RBI, which anticipates inflation to ease as seasonal factors stabilise. Governor Shakti
Prabowo's Economic Vision: Ambitious Targets and Fiscal Debates for 2025
July 15, 2024 4:22 PM UTC
Indonesia's parliament has set ambitious economic targets for 2025, tasking Bank Indonesia with strengthening the rupiah to USD/IDR 15,300-15,900. The parliament also set a GDP growth target of 5.3-5.6% and a fiscal deficit target of 2.29-2.82% of GDP. Despite revising the 2024 fiscal deficit to 2
July 11, 2024
India CPI Preview: Weather Disruptions to Propel Headline Inflation
July 11, 2024 7:49 AM UTC
Bottom line: India’s June inflation level is expected to trend up to 4.9% y/y, rising from 4.7% y/y in May, reflecting higher food prices. The persisting heatwaves and the advance of the monsoon and its impact on produce will weigh on food prices in the near term, which could potentially see price
July 02, 2024
Softening inflation will provide BI room to hold rate
July 2, 2024 1:36 PM UTC
Bank Indonesia in a pro-stability move decided to maintain the key policy rate at 6.25%. The move comes at a time when the weakness in the Indonesia Rupiah has increased in recent weeks. A rate cut is therefore not on the horizon.
June 27, 2024
Gold Rush: RBI Bolsters Reserves Amid Global Uncertainty
June 27, 2024 7:05 AM UTC
Despite a slight decline from its peak, India's reserves remain robust at US$ 652.8bn as of June 14. The RBI has followed a proactive approach in managing and diversifying these reserves, which now provide the central bank with sufficient room to stabilise the rupee amid recent volatility. It would
June 26, 2024
Split Perspectives: RBI MPC's Take on Growth and Inflation
June 26, 2024 5:23 PM UTC
The latest minutes from the RBI MPC meeting indicated that members are optimistic about India's economic growth outlook but are exercising caution due to inflation concerns. The minutes underscored differing viewpoints between external and internal MPC members regarding future policy actions. While
June 25, 2024
Outlook Overview: Cyclical and Structural Forces
June 25, 2024 10:15 AM UTC
• The global economy is showing signs of healing, as inflation comes back towards targets and growth recovers momentum in some economies. Nevertheless, the cyclical headwind of lagged monetary tightening remains in DM countries, and will likely be one of the forces slowing the U.S. economy
June 24, 2024
Modi 3.0 to be Much Like Previous Two Terms
June 24, 2024 6:47 AM UTC
A weakened BJP has formed a government with support from regional parties and independents. The BJP holds 240 seats in parliament on its own and with its partners the government in power now holds 303 seats, which is substantially higher than the 272 needed to form a government. As a consequence, po
June 21, 2024
Asia/Pacific (ex-China/Japan) Outlook: Growth Momentum but Delayed Rate Cuts
June 21, 2024 9:45 AM UTC
• Economic activity in emerging Asian economies is forecast to remain strong. Despite several challenges, including a tight oil market, constrained liquidity conditions, and delayed rate cuts, the region's economic activity is expected to show resilience. Other potential obstacles include u
June 19, 2024
China Outlook: 2024 on Track, but 2025 Headwinds
June 19, 2024 9:35 AM UTC
Public investment and industrial production in high tech and renewables are helping to support growth and should get the economy close to 5% in 2024. However, underneath the surface, consumption is slowing, private sector investment and employment growth is sluggish, and residential property inves
June 10, 2024
RBI’s Balanced Act: Steady Rates and a Promising FY25 Outlook
June 10, 2024 9:24 AM UTC
The Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy Committee, led by Governor Shaktikanta Das, chose to keep the repo rate unchanged at 6.5% for the seventh consecutive time, aiming to ensure that the disinflationary process sustained. Growth is expected to be robust in FY25, while inflation risks are el
June 04, 2024
India Elections: Early Trends Point to a Weakened BJP Government
June 4, 2024 2:02 PM UTC
Election counting trends indicate that the BJP-led NDA is on track to secure 290 seats, with the BJP projected to win 235-240 seats. The INDIA alliance is expected to secure around 230 seats. Final results will be announced later tonight. A weakened BJP is expected to form a government with its alli
June 03, 2024
Modi's Marathon: Exit Polls Predict Third Term with Sweeping Majority
June 3, 2024 12:59 PM UTC
Exit polls for the 2024 general elections indicate another Modi wave. The markets have welcomed the exit poll results and the overall business sentiment is euphoric. Exit polls forecast a landslide victory for the BJP-led NDA, with projections nearing the '400' mark. The BJP has also secured a signi
May 28, 2024
Indonesia CPI Preview: Food Prices to Maintain Pressure
May 28, 2024 10:11 AM UTC
Indonesia’s consumer price inflation is expected to remain broadly stable at the 3% y-o-y mark in May. Supply disruption due to floods in Sumatra region alongside persistent high food prices will keep price pressures elevated.
May 27, 2024
Votes to Volatility: Potential Market Outcomes and Policy Directions Post Elections
May 27, 2024 6:47 AM UTC
As India’s month long 2024 General Elections are almost coming to a close, lower voter turnout has increased uncertainty despite expectations of a BJP victory. While we still expect a BJP victory, the markets are becoming increasingly cautious. A decisive BJP win would likely strengthen the rupee
May 22, 2024
Bank Indonesia Holds Firm on Rates: A Steady Hand for Currency Stability
May 22, 2024 9:29 AM UTC
Bank Indonesia in a pro-stability move decided to maintain the key policy rate at 6.25% today. The move comes at a time when the wakness in the Indonesia Rupiah has abated and headline inflation has edged down. Despite improving stability, a rate cut is not in sight in the near term.
May 14, 2024
India Inflation Review: Sticky Prices to Keep RBI Cautious
May 14, 2024 3:54 AM UTC
India’s consumer price inflation eased amrginally to 4.83% yr/yr in April, reflecting lower fuel and light prices. The government cut prices of LPG cylinders in India ahead of the elections. However, food price pressures persist despite various supply side measures, underscoring the sticky nature
May 13, 2024
Watts at Stake: India's Looming Power Shortage
May 13, 2024 6:58 AM UTC
India's power sector faces rising demand and power shortages, sparking fears of the most significant power shortfall in a decade. With coal imports continuing to rise and hydropower generation declining, India's aim to become a manufacturing hub could become challenging. Energy transition is likely
May 10, 2024
Benign Inflation Allows BNM to Hold Rate
May 10, 2024 9:24 AM UTC
In its latest decision, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) opted to keep the overnight policy rate (OPR) steady at 3.0%, marking the seventh consecutive meeting without a change. This decision aligns with market projections and underscores BNM's commitment to support g
May 07, 2024
Indonesia Q4 GDP Review: Robust Start to 2024
May 7, 2024 1:22 PM UTC
Bottom line: Indonesia's Q1 GDP — released on May 6 — saw growth rebound to 5.1% yr/yr from 4.90% yr/yr in Q4 2023. While private consumption continued its ascent, government expenditure emerged as the key driver of Indonesia's growth narrative. Private consumption was supported by festive deman
May 03, 2024
Indonesia CPI Review: Inflation Inches Down but BI on Alert
May 3, 2024 10:33 AM UTC
Indonesia’s consumer price inflation eased marginally to 3% yr/yr in April on the back of declining food prices. Despite the easing, food price remain the key inflationary factor. Additionally, imported inflation as the IDR comes under pressure could keep inflation elevated in the near term. Bank