Emerging Asia
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July 17, 2024 1:13 PM UTC
Bank Indonesia held its key interest rate at 6.25% to stabilize the rupiah and attract FX inflows, while maintaining interventions in the FX and bond markets. Inflation remains within target, and GDP growth forecasts are steady. Future rate cuts depend on US Federal Reserve actions. A 25bps cut is e
July 15, 2024 6:35 PM UTC
India's inflation surged in June with wholesale prices hitting a 16-month high at 3.36% y/y, driven by soaring food costs. The CPI also rose to 5.1% y/y, reversing a five-month decline, prompting caution from the RBI, which anticipates inflation to ease as seasonal factors stabilise. Governor Shakti
July 15, 2024 4:22 PM UTC
Indonesia's parliament has set ambitious economic targets for 2025, tasking Bank Indonesia with strengthening the rupiah to USD/IDR 15,300-15,900. The parliament also set a GDP growth target of 5.3-5.6% and a fiscal deficit target of 2.29-2.82% of GDP. Despite revising the 2024 fiscal deficit to 2
July 11, 2024 7:49 AM UTC
Bottom line: India’s June inflation level is expected to trend up to 4.9% y/y, rising from 4.7% y/y in May, reflecting higher food prices. The persisting heatwaves and the advance of the monsoon and its impact on produce will weigh on food prices in the near term, which could potentially see price
July 2, 2024 1:36 PM UTC
Bank Indonesia in a pro-stability move decided to maintain the key policy rate at 6.25%. The move comes at a time when the weakness in the Indonesia Rupiah has increased in recent weeks. A rate cut is therefore not on the horizon.
June 27, 2024 7:05 AM UTC
Despite a slight decline from its peak, India's reserves remain robust at US$ 652.8bn as of June 14. The RBI has followed a proactive approach in managing and diversifying these reserves, which now provide the central bank with sufficient room to stabilise the rupee amid recent volatility. It would
June 26, 2024 5:23 PM UTC
The latest minutes from the RBI MPC meeting indicated that members are optimistic about India's economic growth outlook but are exercising caution due to inflation concerns. The minutes underscored differing viewpoints between external and internal MPC members regarding future policy actions. While
June 25, 2024 10:15 AM UTC
• The global economy is showing signs of healing, as inflation comes back towards targets and growth recovers momentum in some economies. Nevertheless, the cyclical headwind of lagged monetary tightening remains in DM countries, and will likely be one of the forces slowing the U.S. economy
June 24, 2024 6:47 AM UTC
A weakened BJP has formed a government with support from regional parties and independents. The BJP holds 240 seats in parliament on its own and with its partners the government in power now holds 303 seats, which is substantially higher than the 272 needed to form a government. As a consequence, po
June 21, 2024 9:45 AM UTC
• Economic activity in emerging Asian economies is forecast to remain strong. Despite several challenges, including a tight oil market, constrained liquidity conditions, and delayed rate cuts, the region's economic activity is expected to show resilience. Other potential obstacles include u
June 19, 2024 9:35 AM UTC
Public investment and industrial production in high tech and renewables are helping to support growth and should get the economy close to 5% in 2024. However, underneath the surface, consumption is slowing, private sector investment and employment growth is sluggish, and residential property inves
June 10, 2024 9:24 AM UTC
The Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy Committee, led by Governor Shaktikanta Das, chose to keep the repo rate unchanged at 6.5% for the seventh consecutive time, aiming to ensure that the disinflationary process sustained. Growth is expected to be robust in FY25, while inflation risks are el
June 4, 2024 2:02 PM UTC
Election counting trends indicate that the BJP-led NDA is on track to secure 290 seats, with the BJP projected to win 235-240 seats. The INDIA alliance is expected to secure around 230 seats. Final results will be announced later tonight. A weakened BJP is expected to form a government with its alli
June 3, 2024 12:59 PM UTC
Exit polls for the 2024 general elections indicate another Modi wave. The markets have welcomed the exit poll results and the overall business sentiment is euphoric. Exit polls forecast a landslide victory for the BJP-led NDA, with projections nearing the '400' mark. The BJP has also secured a signi
May 28, 2024 10:11 AM UTC
Indonesia’s consumer price inflation is expected to remain broadly stable at the 3% y-o-y mark in May. Supply disruption due to floods in Sumatra region alongside persistent high food prices will keep price pressures elevated.
May 27, 2024 6:47 AM UTC
As India’s month long 2024 General Elections are almost coming to a close, lower voter turnout has increased uncertainty despite expectations of a BJP victory. While we still expect a BJP victory, the markets are becoming increasingly cautious. A decisive BJP win would likely strengthen the rupee
May 22, 2024 9:29 AM UTC
Bank Indonesia in a pro-stability move decided to maintain the key policy rate at 6.25% today. The move comes at a time when the wakness in the Indonesia Rupiah has abated and headline inflation has edged down. Despite improving stability, a rate cut is not in sight in the near term.
May 14, 2024 3:54 AM UTC
India’s consumer price inflation eased amrginally to 4.83% yr/yr in April, reflecting lower fuel and light prices. The government cut prices of LPG cylinders in India ahead of the elections. However, food price pressures persist despite various supply side measures, underscoring the sticky nature
May 13, 2024 6:58 AM UTC
India's power sector faces rising demand and power shortages, sparking fears of the most significant power shortfall in a decade. With coal imports continuing to rise and hydropower generation declining, India's aim to become a manufacturing hub could become challenging. Energy transition is likely
May 10, 2024 9:24 AM UTC
In its latest decision, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) opted to keep the overnight policy rate (OPR) steady at 3.0%, marking the seventh consecutive meeting without a change. This decision aligns with market projections and underscores BNM's commitment to support g
May 7, 2024 1:22 PM UTC
Bottom line: Indonesia's Q1 GDP — released on May 6 — saw growth rebound to 5.1% yr/yr from 4.90% yr/yr in Q4 2023. While private consumption continued its ascent, government expenditure emerged as the key driver of Indonesia's growth narrative. Private consumption was supported by festive deman
May 3, 2024 10:33 AM UTC
Indonesia’s consumer price inflation eased marginally to 3% yr/yr in April on the back of declining food prices. Despite the easing, food price remain the key inflationary factor. Additionally, imported inflation as the IDR comes under pressure could keep inflation elevated in the near term. Bank
April 29, 2024 1:25 PM UTC
Indonesia’s consumer price inflation in expected to continue to trend upward in April. Food prices, alongside higher transportation price growth will drive up inflation. Furthermore, increased demand during Ramadan will also weigh on headline inflation.
April 29, 2024 11:26 AM UTC
In a pre-emptive move to both curb inflationary pressures and safeguard the Indonesia Rupiah (IDR) against furhter depreciation, Bank Indonesia, in a surprise move, increased its main policy rate by 25 bps to 6.25%. However, further rate hikes are not expected as the central bank remains wary of hur
April 26, 2024 9:30 AM UTC
Bottom line: While much focus is on the cyclical economic position to determine 2024 monetary policy prospects, the 2025-28 structural growth trajectory differs to the pre 2020 GDP trajectory for major economies. While global fragmentation has a role to play, aging populations are already having a
April 23, 2024 11:12 AM UTC
With inflation within target range and the need to defend the currency amid global uncertainties and US dollar strength, Bank Indonesia (BI) is likely to extend its pause on rate adjustments in the upcoming monetary policy meeting on April 24. BI remains committed to stabilising the Indonesian rupia
April 22, 2024 3:18 PM UTC
The Constitutional Court dismissed cases against Vice President Gibran Rakabuming Raka and President Joko Widodo. In Gibran's case, the court didn't disqualify him from running for president but sanctioned the election committee for not amending regulations following a previous ruling. This ruling l
April 15, 2024 12:35 PM UTC
India's inflation trajectory in March 2024 showcased divergent trends in both consumer and wholesale price indices. While consumer inflation dipped to its lowest in ten months at 4.9% y/y, wholesale inflation rose to 0.5% y/y, driven by surging food prices. The outlook suggests gradual WPI escalatio
April 11, 2024 5:44 AM UTC
In line with our expectations, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) chose to maintain the policy repo rate at 6.5% in its latest meeting. The decision reflects their aim to gradually scale back stimulus measures while still supporting economic growth. It also unders
April 4, 2024 7:25 AM UTC
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is gearing up to announce its first monetary policy decision for FY25 (April-March) on April 5. For the upcoming meeting, we anticipate that the RBI will likely keep the repo rate unchanged at 6.5%, given the optimistic outlook for economic growth and still elevated i
April 2, 2024 9:00 AM UTC
Into Q2, data and policy (actual and perceived) will dominate DM markets. The ECB will likely take the spotlight with a 25bps cut on June 7, as the Fed face a better growth/more fiscal policy expansion and a tighter labor market than the EZ but also with a better productivity backdrop and outlook to
April 1, 2024 1:33 PM UTC
Indonesia's latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data has revealed a notable acceleration in inflation, surpassing expectations and marking the highest rate since August 2023. The surge, driven primarily by heightened demand during the fasting month of Ramadan, highlights significant price pressures ac
March 22, 2024 12:18 PM UTC
· In 2024, growth trends across emerging Asia will exhibit a mixed pattern. Encouragingly, there will be a resurgence in demand for global electronics following a period of stagnation in 2022‑23, which will provide a boost to regional trade. Moreover, the initiation of monetary policy
March 20, 2024 11:00 AM UTC
China’s 5% growth target will likely be tough to meet with residential property investment likely to knock 1.0-1.5% off GDP and net exports a small negative. With sluggish private investment, this means some of the old engines of growth are not firing. Some additional fiscal stimulus will likely
March 18, 2024 5:40 AM UTC
Bank Indonesia (BI) will likely maintain the key 7-day reverse repo rate unchanged in March at 6%, in line with recent trends. The stability of the rupiah remains a crucial consideration for BI, alongside CPI inflation, which has moderated within the new target band of 2.5+/-1%.
March 11, 2024 9:05 AM UTC
2024 is turning out to be a significant year for the Asian political scene. At the start of the year, eight countries were scheduled to hold elections this year, with close to 2.2bn people voting this year across emerging Asian economies.
With elections now over in four of the eight countries, the
March 8, 2024 2:30 PM UTC
India's economic landscape witnessed a remarkable upswing in Q3-FY24, with a real GDP growth rate of 8.4%, surpassing both street estimates and the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) projections. This surge not only solidifies India's position as the fastest-growing major economy globally but also unde
March 7, 2024 4:06 AM UTC
Indonesia's Consumer Price Index (CPI) data released by the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) indicates a notable uptick in inflation, reaching 2.75% y/y in February compared to 2.57% y/y in January. The three-month high inflation rate was primarily propelled by surging food prices, aligning with expe