Emerging Asia
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November 11, 2024
China Yuan10trn Package: Shifting Debt Not Stimulus
November 11, 2024 10:06 AM UTC
Details of the Yuan10trn fiscal package show that it is all directed at a debt swap for LGFV’s and repackaging hidden local government debt. This will have little net fiscal stimulus. True fiscal stimulus will be seen for 2025 GDP growth, but it could be delayed until further details are seen
November 04, 2024
Hawks or Doves? Decoding the New RBI MPC's Monetary Policy Shift
November 4, 2024 7:18 AM UTC
The Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) recently maintained the repo rate at 6.50% while shifting its stance from "withdrawal of accommodation" to "neutral," reflecting a cautious approach towards economic growth and inflation management. The meeting, which included three new e
Will China Deflation Depress GDP?
November 4, 2024 7:05 AM UTC
China most likely faces aggressive disinflation rather than Japan style deflation that depress GDP. China is a middle income country with incomplete urbanization/consumption, while China authorities appear more proactive than Japan in the 1990’s. However, support for households remains light, wh
October 24, 2024
China Big Banking System: Lessons from Japan/GFC
October 24, 2024 10:50 AM UTC
The proposed Yuan1trn capital injection for the six largest banks would be pre-emptive, while China is also quick to merge weaker/failing small to mid-sized banks. However, rising NPL’s; plus, low net interest margins with low policy rates; low nominal GDP and pressure to rollover LGFV/SOE debt wi
October 18, 2024
China September Data Rotates Higher, But
October 18, 2024 7:30 AM UTC
Q3 GDP and September monthly figures were slightly better than expected. Combined with a speed up of local government spending in Q4 and more completion of uncompleted homes, we change our 2024 GDP forecast to 4.8% v 4.6%. However, despite a further Yuan1.5-2.0trn of fiscal stimulus to come, we st
October 17, 2024
October 16, 2024
October 09, 2024
Holding the Line: RBI Maintains Policy Rate Amid Economic Optimism
October 9, 2024 1:56 PM UTC
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has decided to maintain the policy repo rate at 6.50% and has shifted its stance to 'neutral' to balance the objectives of inflation management and economic growth. Although inflation has eased, the RBI remains cautious due to rising geopolitical tensions and increase
October 01, 2024
Futures & Options Frenzy: Retail Investors Suffer as SEBI Plans Rescue
October 1, 2024 10:05 AM UTC
Retail investors in India’s futures and options (F&O) market incurred losses of USD 21.6bn over three years, with 93% of traders losing money. SEBI is planning new measures, including raising the minimum contract size and tightening risk management rules, to curb speculative trading and protect in
September 01, 2024
India GDP Review: A Sobering Start to FY25
September 1, 2024 1:53 PM UTC
India’s GDP growth slowed to 6.7% yr/yr in Q1 FY25, falling short of expectations, as reduced public spending during the election period weighed on economic activity. Strong private consumption and investment provided some support, but a decline in manufacturing growth and weak external trade damp