Emerging Asia
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March 04, 2025
February 26, 2025
India GDP Preview: Q3FY25 Growth - A Tepid Rebound
February 26, 2025 4:50 AM UTC
India's GDP saw a slight recovery in the last quarter of 2024, growing at 6.3% due to increased government spending. This rebound, however, still falls short of previous highs, reflecting the economy's reliance on state intervention amid weak private sector and consumer activity. Despite fiscal effo
February 24, 2025
Reciprocal Risks: The Stakes of U.S. Tariffs for India's Export Sectors
February 24, 2025 5:58 AM UTC
As U.S. President Donald Trump proposes reciprocal tariffs targeting nations like India, which impose higher duties on American goods, the trade relations between the U.S. and India face new tensions. This policy pivot coincides with efforts by Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi to strengthen bilat
Rate Cuts on the Horizon: RBI Signals Confidence in Inflation Outlook
February 24, 2025 1:50 AM UTC
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is tilting toward additional interest rate cuts to stimulate economic growth, rather than exclusively focusing on controlling inflation. The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) lowered the benchmark repo rate by 25 basis points to 6.25%, citing headline inflation convergi
February 14, 2025
BJP Ends 27-Year Drought in Delhi with Decisive Win
February 14, 2025 7:06 AM UTC
The BJP ended its 27-year drought in Delhi, winning 47 seats and breaking AAP’s dominance. The victory was driven by a united party front, strong RSS ground support, success in key voter blocs, including Sikh, Punjabi, and Dalit communities and the promise of freebies. AAP’s vote share fell to 4
February 12, 2025
India’s FY26 Budget: Balancing Growth, Fiscal Prudence, and Political Realities
February 12, 2025 4:56 PM UTC
India's FY26 budget is a strategic attempt to sustain economic expansion while maintaining fiscal consolidation, with the government targeting a nominal GDP growth of 10.1% and a real GDP expansion of 6.3%-6.8%. The budget continues its capex-led growth approach, increasing infrastructure investment
February 07, 2025
Monetary Policy Reset: RBI’s Balancing Act Begins
February 7, 2025 4:57 PM UTC
The RBI has cut the repo rate by 25 basis points to 6.25%, marking its first reduction in five years. While aimed at supporting growth, the central bank maintains a neutral stance, signaling caution amid global uncertainties. Inflation is projected to ease, but risks from trade disruptions and finan
February 06, 2025
RBI Monetary Policy Preview: MPC to Deliver a Rate Cut
February 6, 2025 7:50 AM UTC
With the RBI’s policy review around the corner, all eyes are on how the central bank will tackle India’s slowing growth momentum and the increased currency volatility. The RBI is likely to cut rate by 25bps to 6.25% on February 8. Imported inflation will remain a key concern.
January 31, 2025
India Budget Preview: Balancing Growth and Fiscal Prudence: What to Expect from Budget 2025
January 31, 2025 2:28 PM UTC
The FY26 Budget comes at a crucial time for India’s economy, requiring a delicate balance between fiscal prudence and economic stimulus. As GDP growth moderates, inflation continues to impact disposable incomes, and global uncertainties persist, the government is expected to focus on targeted meas
January 27, 2025
Monetary Policy Watch: Will RBI Infuse Liquidity or Cut Rates?
January 27, 2025 7:27 AM UTC
With the RBI’s policy review around the corner, all eyes are on how the central bank will tackle India’s growing liquidity crunch. Despite calls for rate cuts, the banking system's liquidity shortfall—hitting INR 3.3 trillion—poses a bigger challenge, keeping lending rates high and slowing c
January 09, 2025
The Growth-Inflation Tug of War: RBI’s 2025 Policy Outlook with a New Governor
January 9, 2025 8:14 AM UTC
The Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is currently navigating a complex economic landscape marked by rising inflation and sluggish growth. The recent appointment of Sanjay Malhotra as the new RBI Governor adds another layer of intrigue to the central bank's policy directi
December 09, 2024
December 02, 2024
November 29, 2024
India GDP Review: Rural Strength vs Manufacturing Weakness - Q2 Story
November 29, 2024 3:05 PM UTC
India’s Q2 GDP slowed to 5.4%, driven by weaker manufacturing and global headwinds, but rural demand and agriculture showed resilience. Public investment and festive consumption are expected to support recovery in H2, though challenges like export contraction and fiscal constraints remain.
November 27, 2024
China Slowing LT Growth: Labor Force and Productivity Problems
November 27, 2024 11:05 AM UTC
China labor force will likely not grow in the remainder of the decade, due to falling population; reluctance to consider large-scale inward immigration; a female participation rate that is high by EM standards and limited growth in employment among those over 55. Meanwhile, education and rural to
November 26, 2024
India GDP Review: India’s GDP Faces Headwinds in Q2 FY25
November 26, 2024 9:45 AM UTC
India’s GDP growth is projected to slow to 6.6% in Q2 FY25, marking the weakest pace in six quarters. This decline is primarily due to slower growth in manufacturing and services, though agriculture has shown resilience. Despite robust government spending and rural demand, weak private consumption
November 11, 2024
China Yuan10trn Package: Shifting Debt Not Stimulus
November 11, 2024 10:06 AM UTC
Details of the Yuan10trn fiscal package show that it is all directed at a debt swap for LGFV’s and repackaging hidden local government debt. This will have little net fiscal stimulus. True fiscal stimulus will be seen for 2025 GDP growth, but it could be delayed until further details are seen
November 04, 2024
Hawks or Doves? Decoding the New RBI MPC's Monetary Policy Shift
November 4, 2024 7:18 AM UTC
The Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) recently maintained the repo rate at 6.50% while shifting its stance from "withdrawal of accommodation" to "neutral," reflecting a cautious approach towards economic growth and inflation management. The meeting, which included three new e
Will China Deflation Depress GDP?
November 4, 2024 7:05 AM UTC
China most likely faces aggressive disinflation rather than Japan style deflation that depress GDP. China is a middle income country with incomplete urbanization/consumption, while China authorities appear more proactive than Japan in the 1990’s. However, support for households remains light, wh
October 24, 2024
China Big Banking System: Lessons from Japan/GFC
October 24, 2024 10:50 AM UTC
The proposed Yuan1trn capital injection for the six largest banks would be pre-emptive, while China is also quick to merge weaker/failing small to mid-sized banks. However, rising NPL’s; plus, low net interest margins with low policy rates; low nominal GDP and pressure to rollover LGFV/SOE debt wi
October 18, 2024
China September Data Rotates Higher, But
October 18, 2024 7:30 AM UTC
Q3 GDP and September monthly figures were slightly better than expected. Combined with a speed up of local government spending in Q4 and more completion of uncompleted homes, we change our 2024 GDP forecast to 4.8% v 4.6%. However, despite a further Yuan1.5-2.0trn of fiscal stimulus to come, we st
October 17, 2024
October 16, 2024
October 09, 2024
Holding the Line: RBI Maintains Policy Rate Amid Economic Optimism
October 9, 2024 1:56 PM UTC
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has decided to maintain the policy repo rate at 6.50% and has shifted its stance to 'neutral' to balance the objectives of inflation management and economic growth. Although inflation has eased, the RBI remains cautious due to rising geopolitical tensions and increase
October 01, 2024
Futures & Options Frenzy: Retail Investors Suffer as SEBI Plans Rescue
October 1, 2024 10:05 AM UTC
Retail investors in India’s futures and options (F&O) market incurred losses of USD 21.6bn over three years, with 93% of traders losing money. SEBI is planning new measures, including raising the minimum contract size and tightening risk management rules, to curb speculative trading and protect in
September 01, 2024
India GDP Review: A Sobering Start to FY25
September 1, 2024 1:53 PM UTC
India’s GDP growth slowed to 6.7% yr/yr in Q1 FY25, falling short of expectations, as reduced public spending during the election period weighed on economic activity. Strong private consumption and investment provided some support, but a decline in manufacturing growth and weak external trade damp