BJP Ends 27-Year Drought in Delhi with Decisive Win

After 27 years in Delhi’s opposition, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) (the ruling party at the centre, led by Narendra Modi) has shattered the Aam Aadmi Party’s (AAP) stronghold, delivering a historic win that has sent shockwaves through the political landscape. The election results show the BJP securing 47 seats, with AAP trailing at 23 and Congress failing to open its account. The BJP’s vote share surged from 37% to 45%, an 8-percentage point gain, marking a significant breakthrough. 

Although the BJP has held power at the centre and at the municipal levels, the party could not secure a victory in Delhi for close to three decades. The vote-base shifted from the Congress to AAP a decade ago, but the BJP had failed to secure a victory even in 2015 while riding the Modi-wave in the other states. The win in Delhi is critical for the BJP, as this is the first when it will hold both the central government and the government in the national capital under Mr Modi. A range of factors influenced BJP's vote share this election including 

RSS Ground Game and Organisational Strength: The right-wing organisation, Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) played a pivotal role, with cadres mobilising voters across slum clusters and grassroots hubs. Over 30 RSS-affiliated organisations worked on the ground, ensuring tight coordination from ticket distribution to area-specific campaign strategies. This is particularly noteworthy because the BJP had reportedly sidelined the RSS in its election campaigning for the 2024 general elections, where it lost a considerable number of seats in parliament. The return of the RSS projected a united front and was a critical factor. 

Additionally, BJP made some demographic gains across vote banks. The BJP achieved a clean sweep in several key demographics, winning:

• 3 out of 4 Sikh-dominated seats
• 19 out of 28 Punjabi-strong seats
• All Valmiki (5 seats) and Jatav (4 seats) strongholds
• A surprise surge in some Muslim-majority areas, including Mustafabad

Further, the BJP’s hardline stance on illegal Bangladeshi and Rohingya migrants, particularly in slum areas, resonated with voters. Meanwhile, AAP’s traditional appeal to urban voters weakened under rising dissatisfaction with municipal services and internal party conflicts. Despite its achievements in healthcare and education, the party failed to counter the BJP’s narrative on security and illegal immigration. Additionally, while AAP’s vote share remained significant at 43.6%, it marked a sharp decline of 10 percentage points from the previous election, highlighting voter disillusionment.

AAP’s leader, Arvind Kejriwal, lost his own seat to a BJP candidate, a major setback driven by his alleged involvement in an alcohol policy scandal. The loss signals declining personal popularity, but Kejriwal is expected to remain a key player in national politics, with the party continuing its efforts to expand beyond Delhi and Punjab. The in-fighting between Congress and AAP, despite both being part of the national opposition alliance, split the anti-BJP vote. This rivalry is part of a broader trend where Congress often competes against regional parties, including stronger players like AAP, reducing its chances in state-level contests. Congress’s complete failure to win any seats further highlights its shrinking influence in Delhi.

In addition to this, the BJP at the centre had announced a range of tax measures as part of the FY26 budget, which is expected to have swayed the middle-income voter in Delhi. Further, the BJP too had announced a range of freebies to counter AAP's politics of freebie voting. This included INR 2,500 for those women below poverty line, INR 21,000 for pregnant women, INR 500 subsidy for LPG cylinders and more. 

The most significant outcome of the BJP’s win is the end of a long-standing disconnect between the state and central governments. Under AAP rule, constant power struggles with the BJP-led central administration had hampered policy implementation, as areas such as law and order and land management fall under the central government’s jurisdiction, while sectors like health, housing, and public distribution are managed by the state. With BJP now controlling both levels of government, smoother policy coordination and quicker decision-making are expected. With both the central and state governments aligned, Delhi will likely experience faster project approvals and policy rollouts. Political stability and clearer policy direction will likely encourage private investment in the capital region as well. Despite the setback, AAP will remain a formidable opposition force. Its sizable vote share suggests enduring public support, and the party is expected to regroup and focus on expanding its influence in other states.