Western Europe Outlook: Economies Slip on Oil

March 24, 2026 8:00 AM UTC

·       In the UK, even without the Middle East impact we were suggesting a sub-consensus 2026 GDP picture which now has even greater downside risks attached.  Our baseline is for 4-8 week war and a reversal of oil prices over 3 quarters. The BoE has a symmetric stance between 2nd round effe

Outlook Overview: Iran War and AI Challenges

March 23, 2026 4:39 PM UTC

·       The Iran war macro impact depends on length of the conflict and impact on energy flows. Our baseline is for a 4-8 week Iran war, with WTI down to USD80-85 by June; USD65-70 end December and USD60 by Q3 2027 (here).  The jump in oil and gas prices mean at least a temporary increase in

Sweden Riksbank Review: On Hold and More Likely Still For Some Time

March 19, 2026 9:26 AM UTC

Surprising hardly anyone, the Riksbank (again) kept policy on hold with the key rate left at 1.75% it latest verdict.  However, what was more important was if and how the Board changed its rhetoric.  In this regard, it repeated its assertion of no change for some time to come but qualified it some

Sweden Riksbank Preview (Mar 19): On Hold and Still For Some Time Ahead?

March 10, 2026 10:56 AM UTC

It is highly likely that the Riksbank will (again) keep policy on hold with the key rate left at 1.75% when it gives its next verdict.  However, what will be more important is what the Board says; explicitly in terms of the recent (less pleasing to it) data flow and, implicitly in terms of updated

Europe Nuclear Weapons; NATO and Greenland

February 3, 2026 11:05 AM UTC

·        Without the U.S. nuclear weapon umbrella, Europe’s nuclear deterrent is too weak. Secondly, European countries are highly reliant on U.S. missile defense, command, intelligence and reconnaissance, which military experts estimate could take 10 years to replace. Major European count

Sweden Riksbank Review: Stable Policy Rates for 2026

January 29, 2026 9:09 AM UTC

·       Once again the Riksbank kept policy on hold with the key policy rate left at 1.75%.  The Riksbank Board remains pleased with the data flow since its last rate cut on Sep 23, though vigilant on both sides.  The Board promise of no change for some time to come was repeated, though we

December Outlook: Turbulent Times

January 2, 2026 8:10 AM UTC

Our December Outlook is now published and please see all our economic and policy chapters below.  

December Outlook: Turbulent Times

December 22, 2025 8:10 AM UTC

Our December Outlook is now published and please see all our economic and policy chapters below.  

Western Europe Outlook: Underlying Price Pressures Ebbing

December 19, 2025 9:34 AM UTC

·       In the UK, we have upgraded 2025 GDP growth by 0.1 ppt to 1.3%, but pared back that for next year by a two notches to a very sub-par 0.6%. We think the weak(er) labor market will accentuate somewhat refreshed disinflation allowing the BoE to ease further in 2026 by around 75 bp to 3.0

December 18, 2025 8:54 AM UTC

As widely anticipated, the Riksbank kept policy on hold with the key rate left (again) at 1.75%.  It does seem as if the Riksbank Board is (very) pleased with the data flow since its last and very probably final rate cut on Sep 23.  GDP saw a strong and unexpected Q3 showing of over 1% q/q while p

Outlook Overview: Turbulent Times

December 17, 2025 7:44 AM UTC

·        The U.S. slowdown remains in focus as the lagged effects of President Trump’s tariff increases continues to feedthrough, though our baseline is for a 2026 soft-landing.  The Supreme court will likely rule against part of Trump’s reciprocal tariffs, which will create short-term

Americas First: New National Security Strategy

December 9, 2025 8:40 AM UTC

·       The new NSS at one level reads like a Trump/MAGA current list of topics and desires, that may not translate into policy or a major shift of military assets.  Trump has blown hot and cold on Europe and China over the past 12 months and could shift again.  Nevertheless, the NSS does r

Sweden Riksbank Preview (Dec 18): Policy to be Unchanged and little Move in Projections?

December 8, 2025 1:18 PM UTC

As we anticipated in our review, the Riksbank Board will be very pleased with the data flow since its last and very probably final rate cut on Sep 23 (to 1.75%).  GDP saw a strong and unexpected Q3 showing of over 1% q/q while previously troublesome CPI data have softened appreciably thereby confir

Sweden Riksbank Review: Board Sticks to it Plans

November 5, 2025 9:44 AM UTC

As we anticipated in our preview, the Riksbank Board is pleased with the data flow since its last and very probably final rate cut on Sep 23 (to 1.75%).  GDP indicators suggest a strong Q3 showing of over 1% q/q while previously troublesome CPI data have softened appreciably thereby confirming (bot

October 29, 2025 10:35 AM UTC

Having delivered what was described as a final rate cut last time around (ie Sep 23), the Riksbank Board will be pleased with the data flow since.  GDP indicators suggest a strong Q3 showing of over 1% q/q while previously troublesome CPI data have softened appreciably thereby confirming suspicions

DM Government Bond Saints v U.S.

September 29, 2025 7:35 AM UTC

·       Overall, although the fiscal saints (Australia/Canada/Germany/Sweden) have merits over the U.S. in the scenario where Fed independence is undermined and more Fed rate cuts occur than warranted by the economics, the 10yr area of other government bond markets may not outperform. 10yr go

September Outlook: Into 2026 -- Market Implications

September 26, 2025 9:00 AM UTC

Our September Outlook is now published and please see all our markets chapters below.  

September Outlook: Into 2026

September 25, 2025 6:20 AM UTC

Our September Outlook is now published and please see all our economic and policy chapters below.  

Western Europe Outlook: Policy Divergences

September 23, 2025 9:54 AM UTC

·       In the UK, we have upgraded 2025 growth by 0.2 ppt back to 1.0%, but pared back that for next year by a notch to a sub-par 0.8%. We think this will refresh somewhat stalled disinflation allowing the BoE to ease further into H1 by around 75 bp. 
·       Sweden has seen a clear e

Outlook Overview: Into 2026

September 23, 2025 8:25 AM UTC

·       The critical question is how much the U.S. economy is slowing down with the feedthrough of President Donald Trump’s tariffs to boost inflation and restrain GDP growth, with the effective rate currently around 17% on U.S. imports. Though semiconductor tariffs are likely, the bulk of

Sweden Riksbank Review: Riksbank Delivers Final Rate Cut?

September 23, 2025 8:16 AM UTC

Although aware of the possible impact of recent both real activity and adjusted CPI data having delivered upside news and surprises as well as what now looks to be a clear fiscal loosening, the Riksbank delivered the 25 bp final rate cut we expected.  The Board was very clear that no further easing

Sweden Riksbank Preview (Sep 23): Riksbank To Deliver Final Rate Cut?

September 15, 2025 1:09 PM UTC

Although noting the possible impact of recent both real activity and adjusted CPI data having delivered upside news and surprises, we adhere to our view that a further but final rate cut is looming and probably at the Sep 23 verdict.  Indeed, we were disappointed that the Riksbank did not deliver a

Sweden Review: Riksbank Still Flagging Final Rate Cut?

August 20, 2025 8:37 AM UTC

Although matching nearly all expectations, we are disappointed that the Riksbank did not deliver a further and probably final 25 bp rate cut this time around, especially given its repeated suggestion of prob a cut later this year. Now, there are three more policy verdicts before year-end and we thin

Sweden Preview (Aug 20): Riksbank to Cut for Final Time?

August 11, 2025 12:42 PM UTC

We see the Riksbank delivering a further 25 bp rate cut on Aug 20, taking the policy rate to new cycle low of 1.75%.  This would chime with the hints after the last meeting and cut in July of a further move is possible.  And with both real activity and CPI data having delivered downside news and s

June Outlook: Trump’s Fluid Policies

June 25, 2025 10:00 AM UTC

All chapters of the June Outlook are now available and simply click the link below. 

Outlook Overview: Trump’s Fluid Policies

June 25, 2025 7:20 AM UTC

·       President Donald Trump still wants to use the tariff tool, and we see the eventual average tariff rate being in the 13-15% area, lowered by deals but increased by more product tariffs. Any lasting legal block on reciprocal tariffs will likely see the administration pivoting towards ot

Western Europe Outlook: The First Shall be Last…

June 23, 2025 7:46 AM UTC

·       In the UK, we have upgraded 2025 growth by 0.3 ppt back to 1.0%.  But this is purely a result of the Q1 front-loading and instead masks what we think will be essentially a flat GDP profile into 2026. The BoE will likely ease further in H2 by at least 50 bp and maybe faster and then i

Sweden: Riksbank Cuts and Flags Possible Further Move?

June 18, 2025 8:26 AM UTC

As widely expected, the Riksbank cut its policy rate by a further 25 bp to a new cycle low of 2.0%.  Moreover, as we hinted at, the Board even then suggest that a further move is possible (Figure 1).  Given that even with substantial paring back of its growth forecast in its updated Monetary Polic

Sweden Preview (Jun 18): Riksbank to Cut and Reassess Policy Outlook?

June 10, 2025 10:05 AM UTC

We are even more convinced that the Riksbank will cut further and as soon as the next Board verdict on Jun 18.  Moreover, the Board may even then suggest that further moves are possible.  This may seem stretched given that the Riksbank has virtually called a halt to the easing cycle, albeit most r

Sweden: Riksbank Needs to Revise Output Gap Estimate and Reassess Policy Outlook?

May 30, 2025 11:49 AM UTC

We are even more convinced that the Riksbank will cut further and as soon as the next Board verdict on Jun 18.  Moreover, the Board may even then suggest that further moves are possible.  This may seem stretched given that the Riksbank has virtually called a halt to the easing cycle, albeit most r

Sweden – Riksbank Review: Fresh Easing Hints Confirmed?

May 8, 2025 8:03 AM UTC

The very much expected stable policy decision at this Riksbank verdict was the second in succession but where the Board veered away from its previous assertion that that, with the policy rate now at 2.25%, this may be the end of the easing path.  Instead, and amid the stronger currency and softer C

Sweden – Riksbank Preview (May 8): Fresh Easing Hints?

April 29, 2025 1:17 PM UTC

A very likely stable policy decision next month would be the second in succession and where the Riksbank has now underscored that, with the policy rate now at 2.25%, this may be the end of the easing path.  But amid the stronger currency, with real activity signs having largely disappointed even be

March Outlook: Navigating the Turbulence

March 27, 2025 10:30 AM UTC

All chapters of the March Outlook are now available and simply click the link below. 

Outlook Overview: Navigating the Turbulence

March 26, 2025 9:30 AM UTC

·       More tariffs will arrive from the U.S. from April with product (car, pharma, semiconductors and lumber) and reciprocal tariffs. President Trump has a 3-part approach to tariffs to raise (tax) revenue; bring production back to the U.S. and get fairer trade deals.  This means some of t

Western Europe Outlook: Price Pressures - Puzzling or Possibly Persistent!

March 25, 2025 10:47 AM UTC

·       In the UK, we continue to retain our below-consensus GDP picture for this year, with growth actually downgraded and with downside risks that may actually be both increasing and materializing. The BoE will likely ease further through 2025 by at least 75 bp and maybe faster and into 202

Sweden Riksbank Review: Everything Unchanged?

March 20, 2025 9:16 AM UTC

Having delivered in January, the widely-expected sixth successive rate cut, the Riksbank adhered to the assessment made in December that the easing cycle has drawn to an end with the policy rate (down to 2.25%) having dropped 1.75 ppt in eight months.  Especially given the recent upside CPI surpris

Sweden Riksbank Preview (Mar 20): Time to Pause?

March 11, 2025 10:33 AM UTC

Having delivered in January, the widely-expected sixth successive rate cut, the Riksbank adhered to the assessment made in December that the easing cycle has drawn to an end with the policy rate (down to 2.25%) having dropped 1.75 ppt in eight months.  Especially given the recent upside CPI surpris

Sweden Riksbank Review: Shifts to Easing Bias?

January 29, 2025 9:33 AM UTC

Having delivered the widely-expected sixth successive rate cut this month, the Riksbank adhered to the assessment made in December that the easing cycle has drawn to an end with the policy rate (now at 2.25%) having dropped 1.75% in eight months.  But the Board remains open to further easing; while

Sweden Riksbank Preview (Jan 29): Not Yet the End?

January 21, 2025 2:30 PM UTC

Having delivered the widely-expected fifth successive rate cut at the December Riksbank meeting, the Riksbank hinted that the easing cycle is drawing to an end.  Indeed, this assertion was supported by a smaller move in December – ie a 25 bp move (to 2.5%) rather than the 50 bp cut seen previousl

December Outlook: The Trump Effect- Tariffs, Fiscal Shifts and Geopolitics

December 30, 2024 8:05 AM UTC

All chapters of the December Outlook are now available and simply click the link below. 

December Outlook Webinar on Jan 7: The Trump Effect- Tariffs, Fiscal Shifts and Geopolitics

December 24, 2024 8:30 AM UTC

    The U.S. economy’s momentum remains reasonable before the impact of President-elect Trump’s policies in 2025 and 2026.  While high uncertainty exists on the scale and timing of policy, the strategic bias is clear – sizeable tax cuts that will boost the budget deficit; tariffs (threats

December Outlook: The Trump Effect- Tariffs, Fiscal Shifts and Geopolitics

December 20, 2024 12:15 PM UTC

All chapters of the December Outlook are now available and simply click the link below. 

Western Europe Outlook: Divergent Policy Thinking

December 19, 2024 2:12 PM UTC

·       In the UK, perhaps the main story in our outlook is that we retain our below-consensus GDP picture for next year, with growth of 1.0% and with downside risks. The BoE will likely ease further through 2025 by at least 100 bp and maybe faster and beyond. 
·       As for Sweden, d

Sweden Riksbank Review: Nearing the End?

December 19, 2024 9:47 AM UTC

As widely expected, a fifth successive rate cut was seen at this December Riksbank meeting, but back to a 25 bp move rather than the 50 bp cut last time around (to 2.5% vs the 4% peak seen up until last May). But it was the updated projections (Figure 1) that was be the main news, not least given da

Outlook Overview: The Trump Effect- Tariffs, Fiscal Shifts and Geopolitics

December 19, 2024 9:25 AM UTC

·        The U.S. economy momentum remains reasonable before President elect Trump’s policies impact in 2025 and 2026.  While high uncertainty exists on the scale and timing of policies, the strategic bias is clear – sizeable tax cuts that will boost the budget deficit; tariffs (threats

Jan 7 Outlook Webinar: The Trump Effect- Tariffs, Fiscal Shifts and Geopolitics

December 18, 2024 1:23 PM UTC

    The U.S. economy’s momentum remains reasonable before the impact of President-elect Trump’s policies in 2025 and 2026.  While high uncertainty exists on the scale and timing of policy, the strategic bias is clear – sizeable tax cuts that will boost the budget deficit; tariffs (threats

Sweden Riksbank Preview (Dec 19): Flagging a Little Further Easing?

December 9, 2024 1:12 PM UTC

A fifth successive rate cut is seen at this looming December Riksbank meeting, but rather back to a 25 bp move rather than the 50 bp cut last time around (to 2.75% vs the 4.0% peak seen up until last May). This would fulfil the policy guidance advertised at the September Board meeting. But it will b

Sweden Riksbank Review: Faster, But Not (Yet) Any Further?

November 7, 2024 8:50 AM UTC

A fourth successive rate cut was widely seen at this Riksbank meeting, but rather than the 25 bp moves seen hitherto, there was the 50 bp move (to 2.75%) that was hinted at as part of the two further cuts advertised at the last (September) meeting.  What seems clear is that inflation worries have s

Sweden Riksbank Preview (Nov 7): Rate Cuts Driven Increasingly by Weak Economy

October 29, 2024 10:09 AM UTC

A fourth successive 25 bp rate cut (to 3.0%) is widely seen at the looming Riksbank meeting (Nov 7), with the risk that it may even be the 50 bp move that was hinted at as part of the two further cuts advertised at the last (September) meeting.  What seems clear is that inflation worries have subsi