USD/JPY-Commentary

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July 03, 2025

USD flows: USD up on employment data
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July 3, 2025 12:46 PM UTC

USD gains as payrolls come in slightly above consensus

USD flows: USD awaiting employment data
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July 3, 2025 6:48 AM UTC

USD has recovered from post-ADP dip but risks on the downside

USD/JPY flows: Little Sign of a U.S. Japan trade deal
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July 3, 2025 1:27 AM UTC

Trade deal optimism boost the market

July 02, 2025

USD, GBP flows: USD softer after weak ADP, GBP falling on fiscal concerns
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July 2, 2025 1:23 PM UTC

USD lower on negative ADP report, GBP declines while UK yields rise on fiscal concerns and talk that Chancellor Reeves may resign

USD, JPY, CHF flows: JPY weaker on tariff threats, strong equities
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July 2, 2025 6:35 AM UTC

JPY weakens as Trump threatens 30% tariff

USD/JPY flows: Trump Brokering another ceasefire in Gaza
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July 2, 2025 1:34 AM UTC

Trump says that Israel has agreed to a 60-day Gaza ceasefire proposal

July 01, 2025

USD flows: Mild recovery on Powell
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July 1, 2025 2:28 PM UTC

USD up a little as Powell plays down scope for cuts

USD, JPY flows: JPY starting to come to the party, but...
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July 1, 2025 9:46 AM UTC

USD/JPY down fairly sharply today but JPY continues to lag well behind European currency strength. JPY still has the most potential for major long term gains

USD, CHF flows: USD continues to weaken, CHF leading
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July 1, 2025 7:03 AM UTC

USD weakness continues with CHF making new 10 year highs

USD/JPY flows: BoJ Tankan Report Better than Expected
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July 1, 2025 1:55 AM UTC

The Q2 BoJ Tankan Index shows business resilience 

June 30, 2025

EUR, USD flows: German sales weaker, EUR a little stretched
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June 30, 2025 6:41 AM UTC

German retail sales disappoint, FX market generally steady but some risk of EUR/USD correcting lower

USD/JPY flows: Trump whines about Japan Auto
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June 30, 2025 2:16 AM UTC

Trump whining about unfair auto trade, wants Japan to buy more oil

June 27, 2025

USD flows: Softer after data, EUR leading
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June 27, 2025 1:17 PM UTC

USD lower as prices rise more than expected and income and spending disappoint

USD flows: New highs in S&P supportive for USD/JPY
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June 27, 2025 7:00 AM UTC

Quiet overnight session but equity strength keeping JPY under pressure

USD/JPY flows: Tokyo CPI Treads Lower but still High
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June 27, 2025 1:07 AM UTC

Tokyo Headline CPI 3.1%y/y

June 26, 2025

USD flows: USD makes modest gains after mixed data
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June 26, 2025 12:52 PM UTC

US data mixed but net slightly stronger, USD makes some gains versus JPY

USD, CHF, EUR, JPY flows: USD weakness extends on Trump Fed talk
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June 26, 2025 6:51 AM UTC

USD remains weak as WSJ reports Trump considering an early announcement of Powell's replacement as Fed Chair.

USD/JPY flows: USD Offered on Early Fed Chair Appointment Report
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June 26, 2025 1:36 AM UTC

Wall Street Journal: Trump considers naming next Fed chair early

June 25, 2025

USD/JPY flows: BoJ Speakers Hawkish
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June 25, 2025 5:57 AM UTC

BOJ’s Tamura warns decisive rate hike may be needed
BOJ's Tamura: For now, I don't think we need an imminent rate hike

June 24, 2025

USD/JPY flows: Ceasefire brokered
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June 24, 2025 2:51 AM UTC

Trump seems to be able to broker a ceasefire between Israel and Iran

June 23, 2025

JPY, USD, EUR, CHF flows: JPY the big loser overnight, PMI data of interest
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June 23, 2025 6:52 AM UTC

JPY loses ground across the board overnight. Preliminary June PMIs of interest in the absence of escalation of the Middle East conflict

USD/JPY flows: And it has begun
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June 23, 2025 1:13 AM UTC

U.S. strike Iran nuclear site over the weekend

June 20, 2025

USD/JPY flows: On/off headlines continue
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June 20, 2025 3:13 AM UTC

Trump may give Iran’s supreme leader one last chance to give up nuclear

June 19, 2025

USD flows: USD firmer on Fed and geopolitics
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June 19, 2025 6:30 AM UTC

Mildly more hawkish fed and talk of US strike on Iran USD supportive 

USD/JPY flows: Japan drafting plans to cut long dated bond sales
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June 19, 2025 4:17 AM UTC

Japan drafting plans to cut 20/30yr bond sales

June 18, 2025

USD/JPY flows: Trade balance Less Negative
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June 18, 2025 12:47 AM UTC

Japanese Exports for May -1.7% y/y, Import -7.7% y/y

June 17, 2025

USD flows: Not much reaction to softer retail sales
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June 17, 2025 12:46 PM UTC

May retail sales came in below consensus, but little FX reaction as trend is still solid

JPY, SEK flows: JPY soft, SEK has scope to weaken
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June 17, 2025 7:08 AM UTC

JPY weakness looks extended, some scope for correction. SEK strength may falter after higher unemployment

USD/JPY flows: BoJ As Expected
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June 17, 2025 4:43 AM UTC

BoJ keep rates unchanged as expected

USD/JPY flows: Trump Proposing Talks
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June 17, 2025 3:32 AM UTC

Trump is proposing talks with Iran this week on nuclear deal, ceasefire
G7 statement: We have been consistently clear that Iran can never have a nuclear weapon 

June 16, 2025

USD/JPY flows: Geopoltiical tension remains
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June 16, 2025 2:42 AM UTC

Missiles continue to be firing between Israel and Iran

June 13, 2025

USD/JPY flows: Haven Bids
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June 13, 2025 4:12 AM UTC

Haven asset receive some nice bids 
Partially retraced as session progress

June 12, 2025

USD/JPY flows: USD weakens
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June 12, 2025 1:43 AM UTC

US officials have been told Israel is fully ready to launch an operation into Iran

June 11, 2025

USD flows: US-China trade progress fails to impress
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June 11, 2025 7:17 PM UTC

Even with a surprisingly subdued CPI to welcome, equities have not been as positive on the US-China trade progress as was Trump, with China’s 6-month limit on rare-earth export licenses suggesting they wish to maintain some leverage. USD weakness has resumed after the post-CPI dip was followed by

USD/JPY flows: U.S.-China has a "handshake for a framework"
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June 11, 2025 1:48 AM UTC

Japan April PPI -0.2% m/m
US - China has a "handshake for a framework"

June 10, 2025

USD/JPY flows: Ueda's remark weakens the JPY
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June 10, 2025 2:09 AM UTC

Bank of Japan Governor Ueda says Bank has limited room to support growth with rate cuts

June 09, 2025

USD/JPY flows: Q1 GDP Revised Higher
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June 9, 2025 1:25 AM UTC

Japan Q1 revised  GDP -0.2%

June 06, 2025

USD, CAD flows: USD gains on employment report, CAD stronger still
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June 6, 2025 12:49 PM UTC

USD gains on employment data look unreliable given downward revisions. CAD to sustain marginal rise. 

EUR, JPY flows: EUR supported by German data, JPY soft
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June 6, 2025 6:44 AM UTC

Solid German production and orders data support more positive EUR tone post-ECB. JPY undermined by weak real wages and consumption.

USD/JPY flows: Household spending lags
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June 6, 2025 1:50 AM UTC

Japan April household spending -0.1% y/y 

June 05, 2025

USD flows: Dip on higher claims
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June 5, 2025 12:31 PM UTC

Initial claims rise puts USD on back foot

USD/JPY flows: Labor Cash Earning 2.3%
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June 5, 2025 4:25 AM UTC

Japan Labor Cash Earning 2.3%

June 04, 2025

USD flows: USD dips further on weak ISM services
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June 4, 2025 2:38 PM UTC

Weak ISM services keeps downward pressure on the USD

USD flows: USD dips on weak ADP
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June 4, 2025 12:33 PM UTC

ADP much weaker than expected pulling the USD lower, especially against the JPY

USD flows: USD still mid-range with mild downside bias
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June 4, 2025 6:32 AM UTC

USD in the middle of the range seen in the last two months. More tariff news or significant data required for ranges to be tested

USD/JPY flows: USD broadly higher
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June 4, 2025 5:01 AM UTC

Japan's ruling coalition partner to propose sales tax cut on food

June 03, 2025

USD, JPY, AUD flows: USD firmer overnight, JPY dips on Ueda, AUD soft
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June 3, 2025 6:39 AM UTC

USD firmer in Asia with commodity currencies weaker. JPY dips on Ueda but net impact modest. Rangy trading to persist

USD/JPY flows: Ueda hints no imminent hike
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June 3, 2025 4:09 AM UTC

BoJ's Ueda says Japan’s real wages are negative, wage growth may slow then rebound

June 02, 2025

USD flows: USD softer after ISM
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June 2, 2025 2:25 PM UTC

ISM slightly on the soft side but USD weakness reflects the market's tendency rather than the data

USD flows: USD softer on tariff concerns
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June 2, 2025 6:44 AM UTC

USD softer as Trump threatens product tariff increases