USD/JPY-Commentary

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August 18, 2025

USD flows: Quiet start
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August 18, 2025 6:43 AM UTC

Little to move markets today with Trump-Zelenky meeting the main focus

USD/JPY flows: Trump-Putin Meeting Does not Sound Fruitful
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August 18, 2025 1:24 AM UTC

The first Trump-Putin meeting a nothing burger

August 15, 2025

USD flows: USD edges lower despite solid US data
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August 15, 2025 1:12 PM UTC

US retail sale sand Empire survey on the strong side

JPY flows: JPY firm after stronger than expected Q2 GDP
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August 15, 2025 6:40 AM UTC

Japanese GDP rose 0.3% q/q in Q2, supporting the JPY

USD/JPY flows: Q2 GDP Better than Expected
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August 15, 2025 1:38 AM UTC

Japan preliminary Q2 GDP +0.3% q/q

August 14, 2025

USD flows: USD rises after stronger PPI
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August 14, 2025 12:46 PM UTC

USD up after stronger PPI

USD/JPY flows: JPY Gains
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August 14, 2025 4:41 AM UTC

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent criticised Bank of Japan saying its time to hike rates

August 13, 2025

USD flows: USD soft in early trade
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August 13, 2025 7:50 AM UTC

USD weakening as equities extend gains on dovish Fed view

JPY, AUD flows: JPY soft, AUD firm as equities move to new highs
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August 13, 2025 6:38 AM UTC

A new high in the S&P 500 overnight maintains the risk positive tone in FX markets

USD/JPY flows: Moderate PPI
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August 13, 2025 4:21 AM UTC

Japan July PPI +0.2% m/m & +2.6% y/y
China hits Canadian canola with 75.8% tariffs

August 12, 2025

USD flows: USD slightly lower on broadly neutral data
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August 12, 2025 12:40 PM UTC

US CPI data broadly as expected, with core a tad firm. USD generally lower

USD/JPY flows: Another 90 days for Chinese tariffs
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August 12, 2025 1:08 AM UTC

Trump confirmed he extends China tariff pause for another 90 days

August 11, 2025

USD/JPY flows: Report that Nvidia, AMD to pay 15% export tax to US
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August 11, 2025 12:59 AM UTC

Report that Nvidia, AMD to pay 15% export tax to US

August 08, 2025

USD/JPY flows: Got a refund
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August 8, 2025 12:57 AM UTC

Japanese trade negotiator Akazawa got a refund

August 07, 2025

USD/JPY flows: Extra 15% tariff?
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August 7, 2025 2:06 AM UTC

Reports that Trump is going to hit Japan with an extra 15% tariff

August 06, 2025

USD/JPY flows: Wage growth rebound
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August 6, 2025 3:09 AM UTC

Japan ruling party LDP Taro Kono says higher rates are needed to bolster the yen
Labor Cash Earning 2.5% y/y

August 05, 2025

USD/JPY flows: More trade talks
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August 5, 2025 3:58 AM UTC

Japan's Akazawa is yet to confirm the tariff agreement with the US

August 04, 2025

USD, JPY, CHF flows: JPY recovery has legs, CHF under a little pressure
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August 4, 2025 7:33 AM UTC

Quiet start, CHF softer, JPY has potential to gain more longer term

USD/JPY flows: Minor Rebound after Friday's Bloodbath
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August 4, 2025 2:58 AM UTC

USD/JPY recovered minor Friday's losses

August 01, 2025

USD flows: USD hit by downward revisions to employment
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August 1, 2025 1:14 PM UTC

Big downward revisions to May and June employment data undermine labour market perceptions and weaken the USD

USD, CAD, CHF, JPY flows: CAD, CHF hit by tariffs, JPY still weak
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August 1, 2025 7:12 AM UTC

CAD and CHF marginally weaker after higher tariff announcement, JPY still weak but verbal intervention has started

USD/JPY flows: Verbal Intervention Heard
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August 1, 2025 5:00 AM UTC

Japan Finance Minister Kato says he is alarmed over FX moves, driven by speculators

July 31, 2025

JPY flows: USD/JPY gains continue
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July 31, 2025 1:00 PM UTC

USD/JPY continues higher with longer term trend traders potentially being squeezed

JPY flows: JPY firmer o/n but little impact from BoJ
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July 31, 2025 6:42 AM UTC

USD/JPY a little lower overnight but decline came pre-BoJ. Increase in inflation forecast maintains lieklihood of future tightening, but little indication that tightening is imminent. 

USD/JPY flows: BoJ on hold as expected
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July 31, 2025 4:33 AM UTC

BOJ leaves rate at 0.5% as expected

July 30, 2025

USD flows: USD gains on stronger US data
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July 30, 2025 12:43 PM UTC

US GDP above consensus, but H1 still quite soft. USD modestly firmer

EUR, USD, JPY, CAD flows: Better Eurozone data may provide some EUR support
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July 30, 2025 6:56 AM UTC

Stornger French GDP and German retail sales help stabilise EUR

USD/JPY flows: Tsunami warning issued
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July 30, 2025 5:12 AM UTC

Tsunami warnings have been issued across much of Japan's eastern coastline

July 29, 2025

USD/JPY flows: Trump shortens Russia-Ukraine peace deadline to 12 days
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July 29, 2025 2:49 AM UTC

Trump shortens Russia-Ukraine peace deadline to 12 days

July 28, 2025

EUR, USD, JPY flows: EUR/USD ambiguous after trade deal, JPY weak
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July 28, 2025 7:04 AM UTC

EEUR/USD failes to maintain initial gains on trade deal. EUR/JPY continues to advance towards all time high

July 25, 2025

JPY flows: JPY under pressure again
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July 25, 2025 9:05 AM UTC

EUR/JPY on an unprecedented ninth consecutive week of gains as risk sentiment remains buoyant, but valuation is extreme

USD/JPY flows: Regional tension arises between Thailand and Cambodia
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July 25, 2025 2:22 AM UTC

Thailand Evacuates Over 100,000 Amid Clashes with Cambodia

July 24, 2025

USD flows: USD weaker on trade deals
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July 24, 2025 8:56 AM UTC

The USD has weakened on talk of trade deals, but underlying picture is unclear

USD/JPY flows: Bessent's remark kept JPY supported
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July 24, 2025 2:59 AM UTC

Bessent threatens Japan with 25% tariff if Trump is unhappy

July 23, 2025

JPY flows: JPY reverses initial gains on trade deal
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July 23, 2025 6:42 AM UTC

JPY i nitially agins on trade deal, but positive equity market reaction and expectation of other deals helps the USD

USD/JPY flows: Mission Accomplished, Surprisingly
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July 23, 2025 12:33 AM UTC

U.S. and Japan reached a trade deal
Likely 15% of tariffs

July 22, 2025

JPY flows: JPY rallying without an obvious trigger
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July 22, 2025 1:17 PM UTC

The JPY correction higher is overdue, and should have further to go, but weaker risk sentiment is needed to create a positive JPY trend

USD flows: Risks to the downside as trade sentiment sours
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July 22, 2025 6:38 AM UTC

A quiet calendar, but the ruling out of a trade deal with India before August 1st suggests a risk negative tone

USD/JPY flows: Relative quiet session
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July 22, 2025 4:27 AM UTC

Relative quiet session on Tuesday
A limited trade deal between the US and India is reportedly ruled out before 1 August

July 21, 2025

JPY flows: Recovery after election could extend, but...
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July 21, 2025 6:39 AM UTC

JPY recovered after Upper House election result was less bad than feared, and correction can extend, but risk sentiment needs to weaken if JPY is to manage a sustained recovery.

USD/JPY flows: Opened lower on Japanese election
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July 21, 2025 3:12 AM UTC

Japan's LDP loses majority in the Upper house

July 18, 2025

USD flows: Recovery in housing starts of limited significance
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July 18, 2025 12:41 PM UTC

USD may stabilise after data after softening through the European morning

USD, JPY, EUR flows: JPY weakness continues as US data stays solid
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July 18, 2025 6:46 AM UTC

JPY stays weak as equities hit new highs 

USD/JPY flows: Elevated CPI
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July 18, 2025 2:35 AM UTC

Japan June National CPI remain above 3%

July 17, 2025

USD/JPY flows: Verbal intervention appears
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July 17, 2025 3:34 AM UTC

Japan Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary Aoki: Concerned about speculative FX market movements

July 16, 2025

USD flows: USD dips on weaker PPI
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July 16, 2025 12:58 PM UTC

June PPI weaker than expected, sustaining the impression of subdued inflationary pressures despite tariffs. USD a touch weaker but positive equity market reaction suggests CHF vulnerable

USD/JPY flows: Weekend election in focus
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July 16, 2025 2:01 AM UTC

Nikkei reports that Prime Minister Ishiba's government risks losing its majority

July 15, 2025

JPY, EUR, USD flows: JPY still weak after softer US CPI
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July 15, 2025 1:09 PM UTC

Lower US yields ought to be JPY supportive, but sentiment remains negative. USD otherwise softer versus AUD

JPY, EUR, USD flows: JPY still weak as equities stay firm
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July 15, 2025 6:48 AM UTC

JPY weak despite higher JGB yields. New high in S&P500 futures

USD/JPY flows: Approaching June High
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July 15, 2025 2:12 AM UTC

USD/JPY fast approaching June 23 high at 148.02