USD/JPY-Commentary

View:

April 02, 2025

USD, JPY flows: ADP above consensus
Paying Article

April 2, 2025 12:19 PM UTC

ADP has come in above consensus, but impact unlikely to be large

USD, JPY, EUR, AUD flows: Tariffs awaited, markets uncertain
Paying Article

April 2, 2025 6:41 AM UTC

From a big picture perspective US equities still look expensive and tariff increases suggest further downside for equities and USD/JPY. But in the short term the makret may perceive the risks to have been priced in by the 10% decline in the S&P from the highs, so there is a risk of a "buy on the new

USD/JPY flows: Recouping partial losses
Paying Article

April 2, 2025 2:25 AM UTC

BoJ's Ueda says US tariffs likely to push up US inflation in near term

April 01, 2025

USD, EUR, JPY flows: USD lower on ISM
Paying Article

April 1, 2025 2:16 PM UTC

A weak ISM survey pulling the USD lower against the JPY in particular

USD, EUR, JPY flows: Tariffs awaited
Paying Article

April 1, 2025 6:47 AM UTC

A quiet calendar today with tomorrow's reciprocal tariff announcement the main focus

USD/JPY flows: Calmer market
Paying Article

April 1, 2025 2:07 AM UTC

Japan February Unemployment Rate 2.4%
BOJ will reduce purchases of 10–25-year JGBs

March 31, 2025

USD, JPY, EUR flows: JPY gains as risk weakens
Paying Article

March 31, 2025 6:46 AM UTC

Weaker equities and lower yields on tariff concerns supporting JPY gains

USD/JPY flows: Drop on the opening bell
Paying Article

March 31, 2025 1:52 AM UTC

More tough talk from the tariff man

March 28, 2025

USD flows: USD weaker with equities and bond yields
Paying Article

March 28, 2025 2:31 PM UTC

The USD is weakenin gin early US trading with bond yields and equities both lower, although the underlying cause is unclear

USD/JPY flows: Tokyo CPI Stays elevated
Paying Article

March 28, 2025 1:03 AM UTC

Tokyo February headline CPI +2.9% y/y 

March 27, 2025

USD/JPY flows: Another Tariff Man Day
Paying Article

March 27, 2025 1:09 AM UTC

Trump's 25% auto tariff on foreign-made cars start on April 2nd
Trump has allowed a one-month tariff exemption for auto parts imports
Trump said he may reduce tariffs on China to help facilitate TikTok US operations sale

March 26, 2025

USD/JPY flows: Same Old Ueda
Paying Article

March 26, 2025 4:51 AM UTC

Japan February Services Producer Price Index +3% y/y

March 25, 2025

USD flows: USD staying soft as confidence declines further
Paying Article

March 25, 2025 2:26 PM UTC

USD weaker in early US and the lower than expected Conference Board consumer confidence index should sustain the weaker tone. 

EUR, USD, JPY flows: EUR focus on IFO, USD strength dependent on equities
Paying Article

March 25, 2025 7:47 AM UTC

EUR may continue to drift lower unless IFO surprises on the upside. JPY weakness dependent on continued US equity gains

USD/JPY flows: Little cues from BoJ Minutes
Paying Article

March 25, 2025 4:10 AM UTC

BoJ Minutes suggest Most members agreed the likelihood of hitting 2% target had been rising

March 24, 2025

USD flows: USD up after stronger PMI
Paying Article

March 24, 2025 2:31 PM UTC

USD gains across the board on stronger PMI, but gains look a little stretched, particularly versus the JPY

EUR, USD, JPY flows: Focus on PMIs
Paying Article

March 24, 2025 7:34 AM UTC

The EUR was firmer overnight helped by a better general risk tone, but the focus is now on the PMIs 

USD/JPY flows: Positive Start for the week
Paying Article

March 24, 2025 1:02 AM UTC

China is considering joining the potential peacekeeping mission for Ukraine
White House is narrowing its approach to April 2 tariffs set

March 21, 2025

USD, JPY flows: Softer JPY overnight hard to justify
Paying Article

March 21, 2025 7:36 AM UTC

JPY weakened overnight despite lower equities and stronger Japanese inflation

USD/JPY flows: Headline CPI Stays Elevated
Paying Article

March 21, 2025 1:10 AM UTC

Japan February National Headline CPI 3.7% 

March 20, 2025

USD flows: USD firm after neutral US data
Paying Article

March 20, 2025 12:38 PM UTC

USD holding its firm tone with data still showing a solid labour market

JPY flows: JPY benefiting from lower US yields and geopolitics
Paying Article

March 20, 2025 8:08 AM UTC

JPY strengthening on the back of lower US yields 

USD/JPY flows: Trump talks
Paying Article

March 20, 2025 4:01 AM UTC

Trump says the Fed should cut rate as tariffs hit the economy

March 19, 2025

JPY, CHF, EUR, TRY flows: Safe havens benefit as TRY sells off
Paying Article

March 19, 2025 8:15 AM UTC

Safe haven rising as TRY sells off on detention of mayor of Istanbul

JPY flows: JPY mildly supported by Ueda press conference
Paying Article

March 19, 2025 7:38 AM UTC

Ueda mildly hawksih, JPY has upside scope in most scenarios

USD/JPY flows: BoJ kept rates unchanged
Paying Article

March 19, 2025 4:44 AM UTC

Bank of Japan leaves policy unchanged as expected

USD/JPY flows: Softens before BoJ
Paying Article

March 19, 2025 1:12 AM UTC

Japan February exports +11.4% y/y

March 18, 2025

JPY, AUD flows: JPY soft AUD strong as risk tone improves
Paying Article

March 18, 2025 7:55 AM UTC

USD/JPY correcting towards 150, AUD/USD threatening 0.64 resistance area

USD/JPY flows: Closer to 150
Paying Article

March 18, 2025 1:39 AM UTC

The rebound in USD/JPY is closing in on 150

March 17, 2025

USD flows: US data mixed, initial USD gains look unjustified
Paying Article

March 17, 2025 12:51 PM UTC

USD gain after the US data look hard to justify goven slowing retail sales trend and weak Empire survey

USD flows: USD mixed, focus on US data
Paying Article

March 17, 2025 7:49 AM UTC

Commodity currencies storng but USD makes gains against the JPY overnight. US retail sales and Empire Manufacturing survey in focus

USD/JPY flows: USD opened higher
Paying Article

March 17, 2025 12:50 AM UTC

USD opened higher on Monday
US Treasury Secretary Bessent's comment not comforting

March 14, 2025

USD flows: USD initially rises slightly on weak UMich survey, but...
Paying Article

March 14, 2025 2:15 PM UTC

The University of Michigan confidence surey for March makes worrying reading with inflation expectations rising strongly again and confidence weakening further. Initial USD gains may not hold

GBP flows: GBP slips on weaker GDP
Paying Article

March 14, 2025 7:31 AM UTC

GBP lower as January GDP falls 0.1%

USD/JPY flows: Market Somewhat Upbeat
Paying Article

March 14, 2025 12:43 AM UTC

Schumer confirms that Democrats will vote to keep government open
Canada FM Dominic Leblanc says Canada agreed to maintain dialogue

March 13, 2025

USD flows: USD firmer despite softer PPI
Paying Article

March 13, 2025 1:29 PM UTC

USD moves higher as equities and yields rise after softer PPI

JPY flows: JPY supported by hawkish BoJ and weaker equities
Paying Article

March 13, 2025 7:59 AM UTC

JPY resumes gains as equities slip and Ueda maintains hawkish stance

USD/JPY flows: Welcoming Sign from Early Wage negotiation
Paying Article

March 13, 2025 1:55 AM UTC

Shunto wage negotiations show most organizations asking wage hikes nearly twice as large as last year

March 12, 2025

USD, EUR, JPY flows: USD recovers after initial post-CPI dip
Paying Article

March 12, 2025 1:47 PM UTC

USD recovering in more positive risk environment despite softer CPI

USD, CAD, EUR, JPY flows: USD recovers as JPY corrects lower
Paying Article

March 12, 2025 7:52 AM UTC

USD recovering modestly in moe neutral risk environment. EUR/JPY back in line with the historic risk premium correlation

USD/JPY flows: Spring Wage Negotiation Seems to Brew Strong Result
Paying Article

March 12, 2025 1:10 AM UTC

Bank of Japan Governor Ueda says higher long term rates reflecting market views on economy
Japan’s Major Firms to Offer Strong Wage Hikes 

March 11, 2025

USD/JPY flows: Continue to search for more downside
Paying Article

March 11, 2025 12:48 AM UTC

Japan Trade Minister Muto received no assurance Japan would be exempt from US tariffs
Japan Q4 2024 final GDP +0.6% q/q
January Household Spending +0.8% y/y

March 10, 2025

JPY flows: JPY continues to make gains
Paying Article

March 10, 2025 11:02 AM UTC

JPY strength continues as yield spreads narrow and equities weaken

USD/JPY flows: Solid Wage Growth
Paying Article

March 10, 2025 1:02 AM UTC

Labour Cash Earnings +2.8% y/y

March 07, 2025

USD, EUR, JPY flows: USD a little weaker after employment report
Paying Article

March 7, 2025 1:46 PM UTC

The employment report was marginally weaker than expected, and the USD has slipped lower in response, but we doubt we will see USD weakness extend further today

USD, EUR, JPY flows: EUR staying firm despite weaker German orders, JPY strong despite Kato comments
Paying Article

March 7, 2025 7:55 AM UTC

USD mixed overnight, gaining against the commodity currencies but falling against the EUR and JPY. But it may be ripe for a correction if the employment report is solid

USD/JPY flows: Retesting Thursday's low
Paying Article

March 7, 2025 3:56 AM UTC

Japan's Finance Minister Kato says recently there have been one-sided, rapid market moves

March 06, 2025

USD, EUR, JPY flows: EUR marginally fimer after ECB, USD remains under pressure
Paying Article

March 6, 2025 2:23 PM UTC

ECB rate cut as expected, statement and comments broadly neutral. USD still under pressure

USD/JPY flows: Calm tone chills JPY bids
Paying Article

March 6, 2025 5:12 AM UTC

USD/JPY recaptured 149 figure
The White House announced a one-month tariff reprieve for auto imports from Mexico and Canada

March 05, 2025

USD flows: Data provides only minor support
Paying Article

March 5, 2025 3:35 PM UTC

USD still under pressure despite better ISM services data