USD/JPY-Commentary

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July 12, 2024

JPY flows: JPY bids continue with BoJ suspected
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July 12, 2024 2:39 PM UTC

JPY remains well bid, with talk of some official intervention, though no confirmation. Some support likely above 157 initially.

USD flows: Still soft despite strong PPI
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July 12, 2024 1:10 PM UTC

PPI came in stronger thna expected, but the market mood is still dominated by yesterday's CPI

USD/JPY flows: Suspected Intervention and Rate Check
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July 12, 2024 3:14 AM UTC

USD/JPY slumps in the early Asia hours

July 11, 2024

USD flows: Weaker on CPI, more downside seen
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July 11, 2024 12:52 PM UTC

Weaker US CPI puts the USD at risk across the board. JPY has the most upside potential longer term, but AUD and GBP may be the best short term performers.

JPY flows: Extreme JPY weakness; what can turn it?
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July 11, 2024 10:53 AM UTC

The JPY is at record weak levels and continued to make new lows despite narrowing yield spreads and FX intervention. Will the trend ever turn? Risk aversion looks liek the most likely candidate to trigger a recovery which could be huge when it comes

July 10, 2024

USD/JPY flows: Resume upward traction
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July 10, 2024 4:55 AM UTC

Japan June PPI +0.2% m/m and +2.9% y/y 

July 09, 2024

SEK, JPY flows: SEK weakness can extend, JPY weakness pausing
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July 9, 2024 6:45 AM UTC

SEK fell back on Monday and can extend losses. JPY weakness pausing but still lacking a trigger for major recovery. 

USD/JPY flows: BoJ meeting market participants on bond purchase cut
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July 9, 2024 5:19 AM UTC

The Bank of Japan will be holding in-person meetings with market participants this week

July 08, 2024

EUR, JPY flows: EUR bounces after initial dip on French election
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July 8, 2024 9:18 AM UTC

EUR/JPY reached new 32 year highs

EUR flows: EUR slightly softer after French election
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July 8, 2024 6:53 AM UTC

EUR a little softer, mainly versus CHF, after Left Alliance unexpectedly the largest party after the French election. But parliament still looks deadlocked as expected

USD/JPY flows: Labor Cash Earning Remains Below 2%
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July 8, 2024 4:17 AM UTC

Japan May Labor Cash Earning 1.9% y/y with April revised to 1.6% from 2.1%

July 05, 2024

USD flows: USD shrugs of mildly weak US employment report
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July 5, 2024 12:50 PM UTC

US emloyment report modestly weak, with lower than expected private payrolls and a rise in unemployment. But USD reverses initial decline

USD/JPY flows: Further Correction
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July 5, 2024 4:59 AM UTC

Japan finance minister Suzuki says weak yen is pushing up import costs
Japan May household spending -1.8% y/y (expected +0.1%)

July 04, 2024

EUR, JPY flows: Weak German orders may cap EUR
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July 4, 2024 6:38 AM UTC

German orders weakest since pandemic

USD/JPY flows: Partial Correction
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July 4, 2024 5:35 AM UTC

Some U.S. politics fiasco
Japan M5.4 earthquake off Chiba prefecture

July 03, 2024

USD flows: Softer on ISM
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July 3, 2024 12:52 PM UTC

USD lower on weaker ISM

JPY flows: More new lows, levels are extreme
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July 3, 2024 7:14 AM UTC

JPY declines continue with no BoJ opposition

USD/JPY flows: Reversing Tuesday's Direction
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July 3, 2024 5:12 AM UTC

Japan June Services PMI 49.4, prior 53.8

July 02, 2024

USD flows: Weaker on Powell comments
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July 2, 2024 1:54 PM UTC

Powell mildly dovish, USD slightly lower

JPY flows: More new lows, but getting overdone?
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July 2, 2024 7:04 AM UTC

JPY hits another new low, Japanese authorities still inactive.

USD/JPY flows: Another high
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July 2, 2024 3:59 AM UTC

Japan finance minister Suzuki and his usual jawboning

July 01, 2024

JPY flows: More new lows, but getting overdone?
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July 1, 2024 11:15 AM UTC

JPY hits another new low but positioning looking a little extended

USD/JPY flows: GDP Revised Significantly Lower
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July 1, 2024 4:32 AM UTC

Japan Q1 GDP revised to -2.9% from -1.8%

June 28, 2024

USD/JPY flows: Escalated rhetoric but no sign of action
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June 28, 2024 4:50 AM UTC

Escalated rhetoric from Suzuki
Tokyo CPI stays above 2%

June 27, 2024

USD flows: USD a bit softer after trade data
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June 27, 2024 1:30 PM UTC

US trade deficit above 100bn and USD weaker, but JPY shows little reaction. 

JPY flows: Options for the BoJ
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June 27, 2024 7:08 AM UTC

The best plan for the BoJ would be to get the US support to stabilise the JPY. Failing that, intervention is needed soon.

USD/JPY flows: Longs taking profit
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June 27, 2024 3:48 AM UTC

Japan's Suzuki saying watching FX moves with a high sense of urgency
Japan Chief Cabinet Secretary Hayashi says won't comment on FX levels

June 26, 2024

JPY flows: USD/JPY to new 38 year highs, all time highs in real terms
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June 26, 2024 1:43 PM UTC

USD/JPY continues to move sharply higher, without any obvious news. Stops have no doubt been taken out at the previous highs, and we are now at the highest level since December 1986. Of course, in real terms this massively understates the weakness of the JPY, as relatively low Japanese inflation mea

AUD, JPY flows: AUD firm on CPI, JPY testing lows
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June 26, 2024 6:35 AM UTC

AUD has scope to test highs after CPI. JPY weak but bears should be wary

USD/JPY flows: Grinding towards 160
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June 26, 2024 4:40 AM UTC

Another test of 160 looks inevitable

June 25, 2024

USD flows: Watching U.S. Tech
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June 25, 2024 10:09 AM UTC

Some traders are watching the sharp pullback in Nvidia share price in the last few sessions. 

USD/JPY flows: Just below 160
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June 25, 2024 4:48 AM UTC

Hayashi's turn for jawbone intervention

June 24, 2024

EUR, JPY flows: IFO awaited, JPY stays weak
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June 24, 2024 6:47 AM UTC

IFO likely to show May PMI was an anomaly. JPY weak but may be due a pause

USD/JPY flows: 160 in sight
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June 24, 2024 4:22 AM UTC

BoJ summary of opinions no surprises
Japan FX Diplomat Kanda doesn't comment on FX levels

June 21, 2024

USD flows: Supported by strong PMIs
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June 21, 2024 1:59 PM UTC

USD up on better than expected PMIs, particularly against the JPY

EUR, GBP flows: UK PMI falls but holds up better than Eurozone
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June 21, 2024 7:36 AM UTC

UK PMI weaker but EUR/GBP a little lower as UK a little better than EZ.

JPY flows: Another day of JPY declines
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June 21, 2024 6:27 AM UTC

Seventh consecutive day of USD/JPY gains despite yield spreads moving in the JPY's favour. Intervention threat rising

USD/JPY flows: The return of jawboning
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June 21, 2024 4:58 AM UTC

Suzuki said excessive, disorderly fx moves could hurt economies
Japan May CPI headline 2.8% y/y 

June 20, 2024

USD/JPY flows: Japan Business Survey Pessimistic
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June 20, 2024 5:01 AM UTC

The Japan Business Survey is showing only 7% business believe wage can catch up with inflation

June 19, 2024

USD flows: BOE/SNB Next Focus
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June 19, 2024 2:43 PM UTC

Thursday see key BOE and SNB meetings. 

USD/JPY flows: Export beats
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June 19, 2024 4:40 AM UTC

Headline trade balance and export beats, import missed but resumed expansion

June 18, 2024

USD flows: USD softer after retail sales
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June 18, 2024 12:49 PM UTC

USD lower after retail sales come in below consensus in May, but impact unlikely to be large

JPY flows: JPY weakness extends toward key levels
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June 18, 2024 8:30 AM UTC

USD/JPY testing the retracement levels close to 158.30. Intervention risk rising

EUR, JPY, AUD: Mild risk recovery continues
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June 18, 2024 6:48 AM UTC

EUR firmer but upside limited. AUD supported by hawkish RBA. JPY weakness extends but one way market looks unsustainable.

USD/JPY flows: Ueda fail to inspire a JPY rally with limited credibility
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June 18, 2024 4:38 AM UTC

Bank of Japan Governor Ueda says chance we could raise interest rates at July meeting

June 17, 2024

EUR, JPY: Steady trading in quiet markets
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June 17, 2024 6:34 AM UTC

EUR awaiting more news on French elecitons, but holding steady for now. JPY awaiting trigger for singificant gains

USD/JPY flows: Risk balanced by BoJ disappointment and intervention fear
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June 17, 2024 4:50 AM UTC

Silence from BoJ 

June 14, 2024

JPY flows: JPY lower after BoJ disappoints, but...
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June 14, 2024 6:53 AM UTC

USD/JPY above 158 for the first time since end-April BoJ intervention after BoJ leaves policy unchanged. But risks remain to the downside

USD/JPY flows: BoJ Surprise Again
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June 14, 2024 4:59 AM UTC

BoJ keep rates on hold and did not cut bond purchase this month
Forward guidance suggest BoJ will decide bond purchase cut in July

June 13, 2024

USD, JPY flows: USD lower after PPI, claims
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June 13, 2024 12:51 PM UTC

USD diops after weaker than xpected PPI and higher jobless claims, but scope for bigger decline