FOMC Minutes: Inter-meeting data seen as important

August 19, 2026 6:58 PM UTC

FOMC minutes from July 29 confirm that most participants supported leaving rates steady but several favored a 25bps tightening, implying more than the three hawkish dissenters, presumably non-voting district presidents. Many assessed that tightening would be necessary if inflation did not decline, w

FOMC Minutes: Inter-meeting data seen as important

August 19, 2026 6:56 PM UTC

FOMC minutes from July 29 confirm that most participants supported leaving rates steady but several favored a 25bps tightening, implying more than the three hawkish dissenters, presumably non-voting district presidents. Many assessed that tightening would be necessary if inflation did not decline, w

U.S. Fed's Barkin - Torn between two differing arguments on inflation

August 13, 2026 3:13 PM UTC

Fed's Barkin's comments today may succinctly sum the arguments of the Fed hawks and the Fed doves in the inflation debate.

U.S. July CPI - On consensus, detail a marginal disappointment

August 12, 2026 1:15 PM UTC

July’s CPI is largely as expected, up 0.1% overall and 0.2% ex food and energy, with the latter at 0.215% before rounding only a marginal disappointment, though possibly a little more so in the detail. This does not provide a compelling case for Fed tightening in September, though by that meeting

U.S. July CPI - On consensus, detail a marginal disappointment

August 12, 2026 1:15 PM UTC

July’s CPI is largely as expected, up 0.1% overall and 0.2% ex food and energy, with the latter at 0.215% before rounding only a marginal disappointment, though possibly a little more so in the detail. This does not provide a compelling case for Fed tightening in September, though by that meeting

Big EM Currencies: No U.S. Yield Pressure

August 12, 2026 7:55 AM UTC

·       Our view remains that major EM currencies outlooks are being driven by relative domestic fundamentals versus the U.S.  No major tensions are being seen from rising U.S. Treasury yields and Fed tightening fears. H2 2026 will likely see the choppy EM FX conditions continue against the

Taylor Rules for Uncertain Times

August 11, 2026 2:44 PM UTC

* The Fed’s rate puzzle has three awkward-shaped pieces: which inflation measure to trust, how much slack remains, and where r* now sits.
* Taylor rules may be deeply unfashionable, but they force those hidden assumptions into the open.
* Change only the inflation measure and the same rule can make

FOMC Minutes Preview: Hawks, Doves and Data-Dependents

August 10, 2026 2:49 PM UTC

FOMC minutes from July 29 are due on August 19 and will get extra attention with Chairman Warsh not having given a clear explanation of the decision to leave rates unchanged, after a meeting which saw three dissenting votes for tightening. The minutes may suggest that several in the majority could b

Slicing and dicing US inflation – why different measures are at the centre of Fed debate

August 10, 2026 1:01 PM UTC

* Wide divergence of US inflation measures becoming increasingly material to policy debate and sets the unusual statistical backdrop to the next CPI release
* Reflects many of the divergent opinions over AI, ‘relative price adjustment’ vs generalised inflation, temporary vs persistent overshoot.

U.S. July Employment - Softer payroll and falling unemployment hint at labor shortages, but no lift to earnings

August 7, 2026 1:20 PM UTC

July’s non-farm payroll at -23k with negative back month revisions is weaker than expected but largely because of negatives in government led by local government education and leisure and hospitality, which may reflect labor shortages. A declining labor force saw the unemployment rate fall, to 4.1

U.S. Fed's Paulson - If policy is in the right place inflation will ease

August 4, 2026 12:17 PM UTC

Fed's Paulson backed keeping policy on hold but needs inflation to fall if she is to maintain that stance. 

Fed SLOOS on Bank Lending shows stronger demand for C+I loans

August 3, 2026 6:27 PM UTC

The Fed’s July Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey of bank lending practices suggests a positive picture for commercial and industrial loans, particularly for large firms, presumably led by AI, though elsewhere the survey presents a less impressive picture.

Fed SLOOS on Bank Lending shows stronger demand for C+I loans

August 3, 2026 6:27 PM UTC

The Fed’s July Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey of bank lending practices suggests a positive picture for commercial and industrial loans, particularly for large firms, presumably led by AI, though elsewhere the survey presents a less impressive picture.

U.S. Fed's Williams - Strongly supported latest FOMC decision

August 3, 2026 2:53 PM UTC

Remarks on Friday from Fed's Williams may take some of the heat off Chairman Warsh.

The Fed's Balance Sheet: Revolution or Recalibration

August 3, 2026 9:18 AM UTC

·       Fed chair Warsh has reopened the question of how the Federal Reserve implements monetary policy, not just the size of the balance sheet. The two go hand in hand.
·        The realistic choice is not between today's balance sheet and a return to 2006, but among several ways of o

FOMC - Warsh leaves markets confused

July 29, 2026 7:30 PM UTC

That this FOMC meeting showed a 9-3 vote for unchanged policy, with the dissents being for tightening, shows there was a case for tightening and a case for steady policy. However, the press conference from Chairman Warsh gave little insight on the nature of the debate, talking a lot about how the Fe

FOMC leaves rates unchanged with three hawkish dissents, Bank of Canada minutes a slightly hawkish lean

July 29, 2026 6:17 PM UTC

The FOMC has left rates unchanged as we expected, in a 9-3 vote, with three hawkish dissents for a 25bps tightening, from Cleveland Fed’s Hammack, Dallas Fed’s Logan and Minneapolis Fed’s Kashkari. We had expected only the first two of the three dissents, but Kashkari’s is not a major shock.

Trump: Tariffs 2.0

July 24, 2026 7:16 AM UTC

•    Replacing section 122 at 10% with section 301 at 10-12.5% is unlikely to have much lasting economic impact in itself.  However, the Trump administration are also undertaking section 301 investigation against 16 countries on excess production, with the report and new tariffs expected in A

U.S. Fed's Logan wants modestly higher rates, Schmid also hawkish

July 16, 2026 9:06 PM UTC

Fed's Logan looks set to vote for a tightening this month, though we expect that will be a dissenting vote. Fed's Schmid is also sounding hawkish, but he does not have a vote this year. 

U.S. Fed's Cook - Prudent to wait a bit for inflation to slow

July 15, 2026 5:27 PM UTC

Fed's Cook is not yet ready to tighten, but sees risks as having shifted towards higher inflation.

FOMC Preview for July 29: Unchanged policy with an unspoken tightening bias

July 15, 2026 3:52 PM UTC

The FOMC meets on July 29 in a meeting that will see no update to the dots or economic forecasts. With forward guidance now becoming limited all meetings should be seen as live, but after softer than expected June non-farm payroll and more importantly CPI data, a change in policy looks unlikely at t

FOMC Preview for July 29: Unchanged policy with an unspoken tightening bias

July 15, 2026 3:49 PM UTC

The FOMC meets on July 29 in a meeting that will see no update to the dots or economic forecasts. With forward guidance now becoming limited all meetings should be seen as live, but after softer than expected June non-farm payroll and more importantly CPI data, a change in policy looks unlikely at t

U.S. Fed's Goolsbee - Want to seee more soft CPIs

July 14, 2026 5:35 PM UTC

Fed hawk Goolsbee is only cautiously encouraged by today's soft CPI. 

FOMC Preview for July 29: Unchanged policy with an unspoken tightening bias

July 14, 2026 5:14 PM UTC

The FOMC meets on July 29 in a meeting that will see no update to the dots or economic forecasts. With forward guidance now becoming limited all meetings should be seen as live, but after softer than expected June non-farm payroll and more importantly CPI data, a change in policy looks unlikely at t

U.S. June CPI - Some volatile moves, but a clear relief for the Fed

July 14, 2026 1:12 PM UTC

June CPI is significantly softer than expected, both on the -0.4% headline and an unchanged outcome ex food and energy, with the respective figures before rounding being -0.422% and -0.017%. While there are a number of volatile declines in the breakdown and recent events in the Middle East present r

Iran/U.S.: A New War or Escalating to Deescalate?

July 14, 2026 10:40 AM UTC

·       Our baseline remains that the MOU will hold and that the Strait of Hormuz will reopen.  Iran can be pressured economically by the U.S. naval blockade being re-established. Additionally, President Trump loves to escalate to de-escalate to get a deal.  This is a 60% probability scenar

U.S. Fed's Waller - A strong core CPI could justify a near term tightening

July 13, 2026 7:07 PM UTC

Fed's Waller seems to want the upcoming core CPI to decide the Fed's next decision. Chairman Warsh testifies to Congress tomorrow,

FOMC Minutes - Fork in the road: scenario-dependent policy

July 8, 2026 10:19 PM UTC

The June Minutes show a Committee that had skewed slightly more hawkish, in pockets, but had mainly moved toward greater uncertainty and dispersion. 
The spine of the policy debate now revolves around a fork in the road: two plausible inflation trajectories, with policy calibration in either directi

U.S. June Employment - Upside May surprise offset, but unemployment falls on lower labor force

July 2, 2026 1:12 PM UTC

June’s non-farm payroll is weaker than expected with a 57k increase, 49k private, with downward revisions to April and May. The slowing is consistent with an upturn in the initial and continued claims trends, though both were almost unchanged (-1k to 215k and +2k to 1.814m respectively)  in the l

U.S. Fed's Warsh - Prices too high, risks have come down

July 1, 2026 1:49 PM UTC

Fed's Warsh is giving the necessary signals on the inflation target and independence, but is not sounding hawkish.

U.S. Fed's Kashkari - Fed may need to raise rates

June 26, 2026 3:55 PM UTC

Minneapolis Fed's Kashkari is sounding hawkish but district presidents are more hawkish than other Fed voters.

The Whig History of late-90s Fed Policy

June 26, 2026 8:00 AM UTC

Bessent's approving 1997-Fed anecdote raises eyebrows and debate about its implications
It's important to recall how that era played out however: a sequence of many global events, not a grand vision

U.S. Trimmed Mean and Median PCE Price Indices not as strong as Core PCE

June 26, 2026 7:05 AM UTC

The Dallas Fed’s Trimmed Mean PCE inflation index, which is reported to be a series favored by Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, as well as the Cleveland Fed’s Median PCE price index, look a little less alarming than the Fed’s officially targeted Core PCE price index. This could be used as an argument ag

U.S. Fed's Williams - Monetary policy well positioned

June 25, 2026 7:50 PM UTC

Fed's Williams' tone remains moderate, even with an upward adjustment to his inflation forecast.

U.S. Trimmed Mean and Median PCE Price Indices not as strong as Core PCE

June 25, 2026 6:19 PM UTC

The Dallas Fed’s Trimmed Mean PCE inflation index, which is reported to be a series favored by Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, as well as the Cleveland Fed’s Median PCE price index, look a little less alarming than the Fed’s officially targeted Core PCE price index. This could be used as an argument ag

DM Rates Outlook: Tightening or Easing?

June 23, 2026 8:15 AM UTC

·       With the U.S./Iran interim agreement likely to hold and energy prices softening, our projected consumer slowdown will likely tilt the Fed not to hike in H2 2026 and to actually ease by 50bps in 2027, with 25bps moves in both Q2 and Q3.  With 2yr yields consistent with a hike, the tra

U.S. Outlook: Consumers Looking Vulnerable

June 22, 2026 2:17 PM UTC

•    The US economy is showing resilience with strength in investment offsetting a gradual slowing in consumption, though consumer spending, which is running well ahead of real disposable income, looks set to slow further. This is likely to see the economy slow in the second half of 2026 even