U.S. Treasuries: Waiting for Data and Yield Curve Steepening

November 4, 2025 1:57 PM UTC

•    Multi quarter we still look for 75bps of further Fed easing by end 2026, which will likely initially bring 2yr yields down to 3.4%.  However, once the Fed Funds rate get closer to 3.0-3.25% and the slowdown turns into a soft landing, the 2yr will likely move to a premium versus Fed Funds

U.S./China Trade Framework: Avoiding Escalation

October 31, 2025 7:48 AM UTC

·         The U.S./China framework deal avoids renewed escalation of trade tension, but is unlikely to be followed by a comprehensive trade deal in 2026 as China does not want major import and bilateral trade commitments.  The economic effects will likely be small and the deal main aim app

FOMC - Strong Differences of Opinion Leave December Decision Dependent on Incoming Information

October 29, 2025 7:58 PM UTC

After a statement that contained no major surprises, the highlight of FOMC Chairman Jerome Powell’s press conference was his comment that there were strong differences on policy going forward, and that a December ease was far from assured. While we still feel that on balance easing in December is

U.S. Fed's Powell - December move far from sure

October 29, 2025 6:54 PM UTC

Fed's Powell has noted strong differences on future policy at the FOMC, casting some doubt on a December easing

FOMC eases by 25bps, to conclude quantitative tightening on December 1

October 29, 2025 6:21 PM UTC

The FOMC has eased rates by 25bps to a 3.75%-4.00% range as expected and decided to conclude the reduction of its securities holdings on December 1 as Chairman Powell had hinted at on October 14. There were two dissents, Governor Miran favoring a 50bps move and Kansas City Fed’s Schmid delivering

FOMC Preview for October 29: 25bps Easing but Little Forward Guidance

October 24, 2025 3:49 PM UTC

The FOMC meets on October 29 and a 25bps easing to 3.75%-4.0% looks likely, particularly after September’s CPI came in on the low side of expectations.  The statement is however still likely to express concerns over inflation while the scale of downside risks on activity are uncertain, and not on

U.S. September CPI - Soft enough for an October FOMC easing but still above target

October 24, 2025 12:58 PM UTC

September CPI is on the low side of expectations at 0.3% overall, 0.2% ex food and energy, and should not pose an obstacle to a likely 25bps easing at the October 29 FOMC meeting. The core rate was up by 0.23% before rounding, slower than July and August gains that rise by more than 0.3% before roun

Looking at the Candidates for U.S. FOMC Chair

October 17, 2025 3:22 PM UTC

There are now five candidates for Fed Chair, in a rough order of decreasing credibility, current Fed Governor Christopher Waller, current Fed Governor Michelle Bowman, former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh,  National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett, and Rick Rieder, Blackrock’s Chief Investment

U.S. Fed's Waller - 25bps easing justified in October, after that will depend on data

October 16, 2025 1:15 PM UTC

Fed's Waller is dovish on inflation, but notes a contrast between strong GDP and weak labor market data.

U.S. Fed's Powell - May end balance sheet run-off in coming months

October 14, 2025 4:34 PM UTC

Fed's Powell has signalled that QT, already reduced, may soon end, but added little fresh on the outlook for Fed Funds.

U.S. Fed's Paulson - Moderate tone

October 13, 2025 5:42 PM UTC

Early comments from incoming Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson are moderate in tone.

U.S. Fed's Waller - Cautions given contrast between GDP and employment

October 10, 2025 12:02 PM UTC

Fed's Waller while dovish, does not favor easing in more than 25bps steps.

FOMC Minutes from September 17 - No dramatic divisions revealed

October 8, 2025 6:54 PM UTC

FOMC minutes from September 17 do not show a clear split between two camps, despite Fed speakers since the meeting showing some with clearly hawkish concerns and others significantly less so. This reflects a broad consensus to ease by 25bps at this meeting. While future decisions are not set in ston

U.S. Fed's Kashkari - Cautions agains excessive easing

October 7, 2025 5:21 PM UTC

Fed's Kashkari is sounding a little more cautious on rate cuts today than he has in some recent remarks.

U.S. Fed's Miran - Expects significant services deflation via housing

October 3, 2025 2:00 PM UTC

Fed dove Miran sees Trump policy changes lowering the neutral rate, but less dramatically than his near term dovish view would imply.

FOMC Minutes from September 17 to show differing views on the future rates path

October 2, 2025 5:51 PM UTC

The Fed will continue to function during the government shutdown, and minutes from the September 17 meeting are due on October 8. They are likely to show a broad consensus in favor of the 25bps easing delivered at the meeting, but a variety of views on the appropriate path going forward.  The indiv

U.S. Fed's Logan - Need to be very cautious about rate cuts

October 2, 2025 2:46 PM UTC

Fed's Logan remains hawkish, but has no vote this year or next.

DM Central Banks: Wider-Ranging Conditions More Than Neutral Rates

October 2, 2025 6:55 AM UTC

·        Neutral policy rate estimates and forward guidance provide some help at the start of easing cycles, but less so at mid to mature stages.  For the Fed, ECB and BOE we look at a wider array of economic and financial conditions, alongside our own projections over the next 2 years to m

U.S. Fed's Jefferson - Both mandates under pressure but more optimistic on 2026

September 30, 2025 12:50 PM UTC

Fed's Jefferson expects higher unemployment and inflation near term, but is more optimistic on 2026.

Trump Tariffs: China, Mexico and Semiconductors

September 30, 2025 8:00 AM UTC

  ·       Our baseline (60% probability) remains that a U.S./China trade deal will be agreed in Q4/Q1 2026 and it is possible though unlikely that this could be announced at the Trump/Xi meeting at the October 31 APEC summit – China requests that the U.S. changes policy on Taiwan could slo

U.S. Fed's Williams - Cautiously dovish

September 29, 2025 6:46 PM UTC

Fed's Williams is sounding more dovish than several Fed district presidents, but consistent with Powell.

U.S. Government Shutdown Expected Starting October 1

September 29, 2025 3:54 PM UTC

While a last minute deal is not to be ruled out, the US government looks set to shut down on October 1. Once a shutdown starts, the standoff could last for a few weeks, probably not as far as the next FOMC meeting on October 29, though that cannot be ruled out. As long as the government remains shut

U.S. Fed's Hammack - Inflation bigger concern than job market

September 29, 2025 12:34 PM UTC

Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack is sounding hawkish on inflation.

DM Government Bond Saints v U.S.

September 29, 2025 7:35 AM UTC

·       Overall, although the fiscal saints (Australia/Canada/Germany/Sweden) have merits over the U.S. in the scenario where Fed independence is undermined and more Fed rate cuts occur than warranted by the economics, the 10yr area of other government bond markets may not outperform. 10yr go

U.S. Fed's Schmid - Policy in the right place

September 25, 2025 1:37 PM UTC

Fed's Schmid voted for the recent ease but may be reluctant to support more.

U.S. Fed's Daly - Further rate cuts likely needed

September 24, 2025 8:21 PM UTC

Fed's Daly's is sounding less cautious about further easing than most regional Fed presidents.

U.S. Fed's Goolsbee - Not thinking about 50bps cuts

September 23, 2025 1:08 PM UTC

Fed's Goolsbee sounds cautious but will probably vote for two more 25bps moves this year. 

DM Rates Outlook: Steepening Yield Curve The Old Normal?

September 23, 2025 7:53 AM UTC

•    We continue to forecast further yield curve steepening across the U.S./EZ and UK, driven by cumulative easing.  For the U.S. this can see a modest further decline in 2yr yields, but the prospect is for a move to a premium of 2yr to Fed Funds (unless a hard landing is seen).  10yr yields

U.S. Fed's Bostic sees little reason to cut rates further

September 22, 2025 1:16 PM UTC

Fed's Bostic is sounding hawkish, but is a non-voter for 2025 and 2026.

U.S. Outlook: Fed Easing to Prevent Recession, but May Also Keep Inflation Above Target

September 22, 2025 10:15 AM UTC

•    GDP growth, supported in particular by business investment, was resilient in Q2, but growth in employment is now minimal and that will weigh on consumer spending, particularly with tariff-supported inflation set to restrain real wage growth. Recession is a risk if we see a vicious circle

Fed: Signals 25bps October and December

September 17, 2025 7:39 PM UTC

The median Fed Funds is a strong hint that the Fed will deliver an extra 50bps most likely with 25bps in October and December.  However, the split in the 2026 Fed Funds dots forecasts from FOMC members suggests that our forecast of just below trend growth and core PCE above target will likely mean