U.S. Fed's Miran - Expects significant services deflation via housing

October 3, 2025 2:00 PM UTC

Fed dove Miran sees Trump policy changes lowering the neutral rate, but less dramatically than his near term dovish view would imply.

FOMC Minutes from September 17 to show differing views on the future rates path

October 2, 2025 5:51 PM UTC

The Fed will continue to function during the government shutdown, and minutes from the September 17 meeting are due on October 8. They are likely to show a broad consensus in favor of the 25bps easing delivered at the meeting, but a variety of views on the appropriate path going forward.  The indiv

U.S. Fed's Logan - Need to be very cautious about rate cuts

October 2, 2025 2:46 PM UTC

Fed's Logan remains hawkish, but has no vote this year or next.

DM Central Banks: Wider-Ranging Conditions More Than Neutral Rates

October 2, 2025 6:55 AM UTC

·        Neutral policy rate estimates and forward guidance provide some help at the start of easing cycles, but less so at mid to mature stages.  For the Fed, ECB and BOE we look at a wider array of economic and financial conditions, alongside our own projections over the next 2 years to m

U.S. Fed's Jefferson - Both mandates under pressure but more optimistic on 2026

September 30, 2025 12:50 PM UTC

Fed's Jefferson expects higher unemployment and inflation near term, but is more optimistic on 2026.

Trump Tariffs: China, Mexico and Semiconductors

September 30, 2025 8:00 AM UTC

  ·       Our baseline (60% probability) remains that a U.S./China trade deal will be agreed in Q4/Q1 2026 and it is possible though unlikely that this could be announced at the Trump/Xi meeting at the October 31 APEC summit – China requests that the U.S. changes policy on Taiwan could slo

U.S. Fed's Williams - Cautiously dovish

September 29, 2025 6:46 PM UTC

Fed's Williams is sounding more dovish than several Fed district presidents, but consistent with Powell.

U.S. Government Shutdown Expected Starting October 1

September 29, 2025 3:54 PM UTC

While a last minute deal is not to be ruled out, the US government looks set to shut down on October 1. Once a shutdown starts, the standoff could last for a few weeks, probably not as far as the next FOMC meeting on October 29, though that cannot be ruled out. As long as the government remains shut

U.S. Fed's Hammack - Inflation bigger concern than job market

September 29, 2025 12:34 PM UTC

Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack is sounding hawkish on inflation.

DM Government Bond Saints v U.S.

September 29, 2025 7:35 AM UTC

·       Overall, although the fiscal saints (Australia/Canada/Germany/Sweden) have merits over the U.S. in the scenario where Fed independence is undermined and more Fed rate cuts occur than warranted by the economics, the 10yr area of other government bond markets may not outperform. 10yr go

U.S. Fed's Schmid - Policy in the right place

September 25, 2025 1:37 PM UTC

Fed's Schmid voted for the recent ease but may be reluctant to support more.

U.S. Fed's Daly - Further rate cuts likely needed

September 24, 2025 8:21 PM UTC

Fed's Daly's is sounding less cautious about further easing than most regional Fed presidents.

U.S. Fed's Goolsbee - Not thinking about 50bps cuts

September 23, 2025 1:08 PM UTC

Fed's Goolsbee sounds cautious but will probably vote for two more 25bps moves this year. 

DM Rates Outlook: Steepening Yield Curve The Old Normal?

September 23, 2025 7:53 AM UTC

•    We continue to forecast further yield curve steepening across the U.S./EZ and UK, driven by cumulative easing.  For the U.S. this can see a modest further decline in 2yr yields, but the prospect is for a move to a premium of 2yr to Fed Funds (unless a hard landing is seen).  10yr yields

U.S. Fed's Bostic sees little reason to cut rates further

September 22, 2025 1:16 PM UTC

Fed's Bostic is sounding hawkish, but is a non-voter for 2025 and 2026.

U.S. Outlook: Fed Easing to Prevent Recession, but May Also Keep Inflation Above Target

September 22, 2025 10:15 AM UTC

•    GDP growth, supported in particular by business investment, was resilient in Q2, but growth in employment is now minimal and that will weigh on consumer spending, particularly with tariff-supported inflation set to restrain real wage growth. Recession is a risk if we see a vicious circle

Fed: Signals 25bps October and December

September 17, 2025 7:39 PM UTC

The median Fed Funds is a strong hint that the Fed will deliver an extra 50bps most likely with 25bps in October and December.  However, the split in the 2026 Fed Funds dots forecasts from FOMC members suggests that our forecast of just below trend growth and core PCE above target will likely mean

U.S. Fed's Powell - Moving towards neutral

September 17, 2025 6:56 PM UTC

Fed's Powell sees a changing balance of risks justifying easing towards, if not yet to, neutral. 

FOMC eases by 25bps, dots see two more 25bps moves this year

September 17, 2025 6:23 PM UTC

The FOMC has eased rates by 25bps to 4.0% to 4.75% with only one dissenting vote, the incoming Miran voting for 50bps. The main story in the dots is that the median sees two further 25bps moves this year rather than the expected one before seeing only one move in both 2026 and 2027, with no further

FOMC Preview for September 17: 25bps Easing on Increased Labor Market Risk

September 12, 2025 10:30 AM UTC

The FOMC meets on September 17 and we expect a 25bps easing to a 4.0-4.25% Fed Funds target range. The FOMC will continue to see similar upside risks to inflation but increased downside risks to the Labor Market. The dots are likely to continue to expect only one more move in 2025, but three moves i

September 10, 2025 10:55 AM UTC

Steeper yield curves are a function of monetary easing cycles, budget deficits, lower central bank holdings of government bonds, a move towards pre GFC real rates and shifting demand from pensions funds and life insurance companies.  Scope exists for further steepening in the U.S., EZ and UK with m

U.S. Fed's Goolsbee - Undecided about September

September 5, 2025 6:12 PM UTC

Fed's Goolsbee is likely to decide on September after seeing August CPI data.

U.S. Fed's Williams - Will become appropriate to cut rates over time

September 4, 2025 5:08 PM UTC

Fed's Williams is looking towards easing, but cautiously.

U.S. Lagged Interest Rates: Only Hurting a Bit

August 28, 2025 12:08 PM UTC

 A big shock from lagged higher interest rates is not being seen in the data looking at financial conditions; the household savings ratio and interest rate sensitive sectors.  The impact of the Trump tariffs is still uncertainty, but our alternative scenario of a hard landing remains at 25% and ou

U.S. Fed's Williams - At some point appropriate to move rates lower

August 27, 2025 12:53 PM UTC

Fed's Williams appears open to easing, but cautiously.

US 10yr: Fed Independence V Economy and Budget

August 26, 2025 12:14 PM UTC

10yr yields face upward pressure from Fed independence questions, but downward pressure from a slowing economy and a better supply picture with CBO estimates of USD4trn of tariff revenue over 10 years. One way to continue playing these themes is for yield curve steepening, where we see scope for the

Jackson Hole: Fed/ECB/BOJ and BOE on Labor Markets

August 25, 2025 9:02 AM UTC

Fed Powell focused on the cyclical softening of employment to back a more dovish undertone.  In contrast other central bank heads focused on structural labor market issues.  While ECB Lagarde was pleased with the post COVID EZ picture, current economic softness still leaves us forecasting two furt

Fed Powell: Signals September Cut

August 22, 2025 2:35 PM UTC

Fed Chair Powell spent the first 10 minutes at Jackson hole reviewing current data and discussing the policy stance.  Powell clearly signaled a September cut, given downside risks to employment after the July employment report revisions.  However, Powell did not signal whether the move will be 25b

August 18, 2025 9:05 AM UTC

The U.S. short average term to maturity is a structural fiscal weakness if higher rates lift U.S. government interest costs close to the nominal GDP trend.  Hence, Trump’s pressure for fiscal dominance of the Fed to deliver lower policy rates and reduce U.S. government interest rate costs. Howeve

U.S. Markets: Soft Versus Hard Landing

August 14, 2025 1:02 PM UTC

      A mild recession would likely trigger the Fed to ease quickly to 2.0-2.5%, which would produce yield curve steepening but would likely drag 10yr yields down to 3.50-3.75%.  The S&P500 would likely fall to 5000 in this scenario, as corporate earnings are axed; buybacks slow and the price/ea

U.S. Fed's Goolsbee - Latest services CPI was bad

August 13, 2025 6:12 PM UTC

Fed's Goolsbee, a usually dovish voter, does not seem convinced of the case to ease.

September Fed ease now more likely than not, but far from assured

August 13, 2025 3:29 PM UTC

A September FOMC easing now looks more likely than not, but remains far from a done deal. We are however revising our call to two 25bps FOMC easings this year, in September and December, from just one, in December. 2026 is harder still to call given threats to Fed independence, but we continue to ex

U.S. Fed's Musalem - Missing on inflation mandate, not on employment

August 8, 2025 2:53 PM UTC

Fed's Musalem does not sound ready to ease yet, but is watching labor market risks as well as those on inflation.

U.S. Fed's Bostic worried about inflation, Waller said favored for Fed Chairman

August 7, 2025 2:35 PM UTC

Fed's Bostic is concerned about risks on both sides of the mandate.

EM Rates: Domestic Fundamentals Dominate

August 7, 2025 9:30 AM UTC

Once trade is agreed with the U.S., the good fundamentals actually argue for a 10yr Mexico-U.S. spread close to 400bps and this is our favored strategic risk reward for big EM government bonds. In Brazil a case can be made for a 12.75% policy rate end 2026 and 10% in 2027, but this could only mean 1