U.S. Fed's Goolsbee - Not on path to 2% inflation

February 13, 2026 8:38 PM UTC

Fed's Goolsbee remains wary of inflation risks after January's CPI

U.S. January CPI - Yr/yr ex food and energy pace slowest since March 2021

February 13, 2026 2:18 PM UTC

January CPI is slightly lower than expected at 0.2% overall though the ex food and energy rate at 0.3% is on consensus, with the core rate almost spot on 0.3% even before rounding. Given a strong year ago rise, yr/yr growth slowed, overall to 2.4% from 2.7% and the core to 2.5% from 2.6%, the latter

U.S. Fed's Schmid - Staying hawkish

February 11, 2026 3:22 PM UTC

Fed's Schmid, who dissented against October and December easings, remains hawkish, but will not vote this year. 

U.S. Fed's Barkin - Looking to complete job on inflation

February 3, 2026 1:49 PM UTC

Fed's Barkin's tone is moderate, hinting at openness towards easing, if not urgency. 

Kevin Warsh Nominated for U.S. FOMC Chair

January 30, 2026 4:13 PM UTC

In October we ranked the five candidates for Fed Chair, putting Trump’s choice, Former Governor Kevin Warsh, in third place, behind current Governors Waller and Bowman but ahead of outsiders Hassett and Rieder. A muted market reaction suggests the market is neither elated nor dejected by the decis

U.S. Fed's Bostic and Waller give contrasting views on the labor market and policy

January 30, 2026 2:35 PM UTC

Fed's Waller justifies his dovish dissent on labor market risks. Bostic however sees reduced labor market risks, and that seems to be the majority view on the FOMC. 

FOMC Pauses With Risks Seen Diminished

January 28, 2026 8:33 PM UTC

The FOMC has left rates unchanged at 3.5-3.75% as expected, with two dissents for a 25bps easing. The statement takes a slightly more optimistic view of the economy than the last one in December. We continue to expect two 25bps easings this year, coming in June and September.

U.S. Fed's Powell - Risks on both sides have diminished

January 28, 2026 7:54 PM UTC

Fed's Powell does not sound in a hurry to ease, but suggests rates can fall once the tariff impact on inflation fades.

FOMC leaves rates unchanged, more positive on economy, two dovish dissents

January 28, 2026 7:20 PM UTC

The FOMC has left rates unchanged at 3.5-3.75% as expected, with two dissents for a 25bps easing, from Miran, as was widely expected, and Waller, which was less so. The statement takes a slightly more optimistic view of the economy than the last one in December.

FOMC Preview for January 28: No change with early 2026 data awaited

January 22, 2026 6:42 PM UTC

The FOMC meets on January 28 and rates look set to be left at 3.5-3.75%, and while rates are likely to move lower in 2026, they are unlikely to give many hints over what is likely in March, with future decisions dependent on data. The FOMC will not update its economic forecasts or dots at this meeti

Trump on Greenland and the Fed

January 21, 2026 4:12 PM UTC

Trump has provided some relief to markets by stating that he will not take Greenland by force, though his tone towards Europe remains hostile, suggesting that he will impose tariffs, which may receive a limited European response. Separately Trump stated he would announce a new Fed Chair soon.

U.S. Fed's Bowman - Fed should avoid signaling a pause in rate cuts

January 16, 2026 4:13 PM UTC

These comments from Fed Governor Bowman may help her chances of becoming the next Fed Chair, if Trump has decided against Hassett.

U.S. Fed's Bostic - Still need restrictive policy

January 14, 2026 5:27 PM UTC

Fed's Bostic is sounding quite hawkish, with Kashkari reiterating a similar message.

DM Government Debt: 2026 Supply & Voters’ Resistance To Fiscal Consolidation

January 14, 2026 11:55 AM UTC

·        We see the most persistent issue being supply (budget deficit + QT) in 2026, which should lessen into 2027 with a slowdown in ECB/BOE QT and a partial U turn by the BOJ.  However, governments are also struggling with electorates that are resistant to higher taxes or lower governmen

U.S. Fed's Musalem - Little reason for near term easing

January 13, 2026 4:19 PM UTC

Fed's Musalem sees both recent employment and CPI data as good, and seems happy with where policy is.

Taiwan: Worst Case Consequences

January 13, 2026 3:26 PM UTC

·        The most likely option for China is to continue the air and naval grey zone warfare around Taiwan, combined with support for pro-China factions in Taiwan’s parliament to build pressure for reunification at some stage before 2049 (the 100th anniversary of the communist party).  Wi

U.S. December CPI - Moderate rebound from weak November leaves a subdued Q4

January 13, 2026 2:09 PM UTC

December’s CPI has come in slightly softer than expected, not showing a strong rebound from the weak 2-month change in November and thus leaving a subdued Q4. December CPI rise by 0.3% as expected but with the core rate weaker than expected at 0.2%, 0.24% before rounding. CPI ex food, energy and s

Reciprocal Tariffs: Supreme Court Ruling and The Aftermath

January 8, 2026 8:05 AM UTC

·        A Supreme Court ruling, partially or in full against reciprocal tariffs, would not produce a major slowdown in U.S. inflation or boost to growth, as the Trump administration would be full of threats for replacement tariffs – Trump would be worried about the loss of negotiating pow

Bessent: New Fed Inflation Range and Dropping Dots?

January 2, 2026 11:30 AM UTC

U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent over the Christmas period suggested that the Fed should shift to targeting an inflation range and drop the quarterly dots.  What impact would this have? Such a change would give the Fed more flexibility on the margin, but not significant.  This could make communicat

U.S. Consumption Vulnerable to Asset Market Hit

December 30, 2025 8:42 AM UTC

Overall, we see consumption growth prospects as being modest for 2026, as low to middle income households still struggle with the cost of living crisis. Additionally, the slowdown in immigration is causing less overall employment gains and in turn less absolute increase in real income and consumptio

U.S. Fed's Williams - Data encouraging, no urgency to act

December 19, 2025 5:56 PM UTC

Fed's Williams' comments probably represent mainstream Fed thinking, in line with Chairman Powell.

U.S. November CPI - Is the tariff impact fading?

December 18, 2025 2:10 PM UTC

November’s CPI is significantly lower than expected, at 2.7% yr/yr, 2.6% ex food and energy, compared with 3.0% for both series in September (October data will not be released). November’s core CPI index is up only 0.16% from September’s, implying an average rise of less than 0.1% per month ov

U.S. Fed's Waller - Dovish but not extremely so

December 17, 2025 3:04 PM UTC

Fed's Waller is dovish but recognises the need to maintain Fed independence.

DM Rates Outlook: 2026 Yield Curve Steepening Before 2027 Flattening

December 17, 2025 9:21 AM UTC

·       Multi quarter, we still look for 50bps of further Fed easing by end 2026, which will likely initially bring 2yr yields down to 3.35%.  However, once the Fed Funds rate get closer to 3.0-3.25% and the assumed slowdown turns into a soft landing, the 2yr will likely move to a premium ve

U.S. Fed's Bostic would have preferred to hold rates in December

December 16, 2025 8:17 PM UTC

Fed's Bostic has identified himself as one of four non-voters who would have backed a December hold.

U.S. Outlook: Consumers Vulnerable, but Recession Unlikely

December 12, 2025 4:38 PM UTC

•    US GDP growth is likely to look solid in Q3 2025 supported by resilient consumer spending, but with slowing employment growth and resilient inflation weighing on real disposable income that will be difficult to sustain. However, while consumers look vulnerable, business investment looks h

U.S. Fed's Goolsbee - Preferred to wait until early 2026 to ease

December 12, 2025 1:16 PM UTC

Fed's Goolsbee has explained his hawkish dissent to this week's decision to ease.

Fed: Slower 2026 Easing

December 10, 2025 8:34 PM UTC

Powell in the press conference made clear that the Fed is now in a wait and see mood, with policy rates entering a broad measure of neutral policy rates. This means further weakening in labor demand and then consumption would be required to prompt an early 2026 cut.  We are less upbeat than the Fed

FOMC eases by 25bps, dots unchanged from September

December 10, 2025 7:21 PM UTC

The FOMC has eased by 25bps as expected to a 3.50-3.75% Fed Funds target range, with two hawkish dissents for no change from Schmid (who dissented in October) and Goolsbee, while Miran again dissented for a steeper 50bps ease. The dots are unchanged from September, implying one 25bps ease in both 20

FOMC Preview for December 10: A close call for a 25bps easing

December 5, 2025 4:09 PM UTC

The FOMC meets on December 10 in what looks sure to be a hotly debated decision, though a 25bps easing in the Fed Funds target range to 3.50-3.75% looks likely, justified by labor market risks. However, at least two hawkish dissents for unchanged policy are likely. The meeting will deliver updated d

New Dovish Fed Chair and U.S. Yield Curve

December 2, 2025 1:00 AM UTC

·      The initial knee jerk reaction if NEC Hassett is nominated as Fed chair would be for further yield curve steepening in the 10-2yr area.  Even so, the dynamics of FOMC voting could mean that Hassett as Fed chair in itself does not deliver more Fed easing.  This is already evident with