June 8, 2026 2:10 PM UTC

·        Our baseline is for DM government bond yields ex Japan to remain elevated, but controlled.  Japan extra risk premium is driven by BOJ QT at 6% of GDP, more than long-term debt fears. Major catalysts could drive a regime change to higher risk premia and steeper yield curves, but non

U.S. Fed's Hammack - Reiterates view, steady for now, may need to act against inflation soon

June 5, 2026 3:28 PM UTC

Cleveland Fed President Hammack has reiterated a hawkish lean after the employment report. 

U.S. May Employment - Surprise came from local government and leisure and hospitality

June 5, 2026 1:19 PM UTC

May’s non-farm payroll is significantly stronger than expected with a rise of 172k though the private sector was less impressive at 120k, if still healthy. Upward revisions to March and April add to the positive message.  In addition to government, leisure and hospitality with a 70k increase was

U.S. Fed's Hammack - Reasonable to keep rates steady for now

June 2, 2026 3:13 PM UTC

Cleveland Fed President Hammack is hawkish but not ready to tighten quite tet.

U.S. Fed's Bowman still dovish, Paulson moderate, Schmid hawkish

May 29, 2026 2:44 PM UTC

Today's Fed talk shows Bowman still leans dovish, while Schmid remains hawkish like many district presidents. Paulson is more balanced. 

U.S. Fed's Waller - Should remove easing bias, watching inflation expectations

May 22, 2026 2:32 PM UTC

Fed's Waller turned dovish in 2025 on labor market risks. His focus is now shifting to inflation.

FOMC Minutes from April 29: Hawkish concerns appear broadly felt

May 20, 2026 6:54 PM UTC

FOMC minutes from April 29 show a hawkish leaning, confirming market perceptions that there was more interest in removing an easing bias from the language than revealed by the three hawkish dissents at the meeting. Should inflation remain persistent, tightening could come onto the agenda, though sho

U.S. Fed's Collins - Expects restrictive policy for some time

May 13, 2026 3:57 PM UTC

Fed's Collins appears to be getting more hawkish as the energy shock persists.

U.S. April CPI - Subdued ex food, energy and what looks like one-time strength in shelter

May 12, 2026 1:08 PM UTC

April CPI is only marginally stronger than expected on the core rate, up by 0.4%, 0.376% before rounding, and the data not alarming outside of a one-time distortion in housing. The headline gain of 0.6% was as expected, and here the rise was a little firmer at 0.64% before rounding.

U.S. April Employment - Resilience should keep easing off the near term agenda

May 8, 2026 1:04 PM UTC

April’s non-farm payroll suggests the US economy continues to grow at a respectable pace in early Q2 with no signs of a hit from the oil shock yet. Payrolls increased by a stronger than expected 115k, with unemployment stable at 4.3% and the workweek stronger at 34.3 hours from 34.2. Average hourl

U.S. Fed's Daly - Policy slightly restrictive

May 7, 2026 5:37 PM UTC

San Francisco Fed's Daly is sounding less hawkish than some district presidents.

U.S. Labour: In Praise of Older Workers

May 5, 2026 8:32 AM UTC

·       While financial pressures are prompting U.S. workers to delay retirement and work longer, this is not being realized due to deteriorating health/labour market skills mismatches and other issues. More work from older workers is unlikely to be the solution to shrinking net immigration.

U.S. Fed's Williams - Policy well positioned for uncertain economy

May 4, 2026 5:00 PM UTC

Fed's Williams' tone is quite moderate, in no hurry to change policy, contrasting hawkish concerns of some at the FOMC.

U.S. Fed's Kashkari, Hammack and Logan explain their hawkish dissents

May 1, 2026 2:42 PM UTC

The three hawkish dissents at the latest meeting were against an easing bias. Kashkari seems the most hawkish, with a leaning to tightening. Hammack and Logan both noted resilence in activity data as well as infltionary risk. There was a dovish dissent from Miran, but he will leave the Fed once Wars

FOMC - Easing call moved to December from September

April 29, 2026 7:58 PM UTC

The Fed is now entering a transition from Chairman Powell to Chairman Warsh, who looks set to be in place at the next meeting on June 17. The final meeting of Powell’s term saw three hawkish dissents on the language and Powell announce he will continue as Governor after his term as Chair ends. We

U.S. Fed's Powell - Number who want to change language has incrased

April 29, 2026 6:56 PM UTC

This is likely to be Powell's last meeting as Chair. Concern over inflation is increasing as we enter the handover to Warsh. 

FOMC keeps rates on hold but three of four dissents are hawkish

April 29, 2026 6:23 PM UTC

The main surprise in the FOMC statement was the number of dissents, one dovish, Miran continuing to call for a 25bps easing, and three hawkish, with Hammack, Kashkari and Logan in agreement with the decision to leave rates unchanged but objecting to the inclusion of an easing bias.

FOMC Preview for April 29: Uncertainty keeping the Fed on hold

April 22, 2026 2:29 PM UTC

The FOMC meets on April 29 and there is little risk of a change in rates from the current target range of 3.5-3.75%. High uncertainty, both on the geopolitical situation and the future of the Fed, suggests there will be little forward guidance, and the dots will not be updated until the next meeting

U.S. Fed's Williams - Policy well positioned to balance risks

April 16, 2026 1:12 PM UTC

Fed's Williams is showing some concern over core inflationary risks from the war, and that will make him more reluctant to ease.

U.S. March CPI - Subdued core rate provides relief

April 10, 2026 12:55 PM UTC

March CPI is as the market expected with a 0.9% increase (0.865% before rounding) led by a surge in energy, but the core rate ex food and energy shows little sign of feed through, rising by a lower than expected 0.2%, with the gain before rounding at 0.196%, the slowest since November’s subdued tw

U.S. Fed's Daly - Reluctant to hike but may hold steady for longer

April 10, 2026 12:21 PM UTC

Fed's Daly is reluctant to hike rates but will be cautious about easing if the oil shock is persistent.

FOMC Minutes from March 18: Increased risks, but still a dovish leaning

April 8, 2026 6:58 PM UTC

FOMC minutes from March 18 show greater concern over inflationary risks but with concerns also seen on risks to employment, do not appear to be hawkish. It still appears that the next move is more likely to be an ease than a hike, even if the timing for rate cuts may have been pushed back somewhat.

U.S. Fed's Williams - Story around underlying inflation not much changed

April 7, 2026 1:10 PM UTC

Fed's Williams expect the war to add only 0.1-0.2% to core inflation, though this may assume worst case scenarios can be avoided.

U.S. March Employment - Strong report suggests risks clearly higher on the inflation side

April 3, 2026 1:27 PM UTC

March’s non-farm payrolls is clearly on the strong side of expectations, up by 178k and an even stronger 186k in the private sector, with minimal net downward revisions of 7k. Unemployment unexpectedly fell to 4.3% from 4.4%. Less positive are a lower than expected 0.2% rise in average hourly earn

U.S. Fed's Logan - Wasn't convinced inflation falling enough even before war

April 2, 2026 3:00 PM UTC

Fed's Logan, a hawkish voter, had concerns on prices even before the war started.

U.S. Fed's Schmid - Fears inflation could remain near 3%

March 31, 2026 5:19 PM UTC

Fed's Schmid is taking a hawkish view of the oil price risks, but has no vote this year.

U.S. Fed's Powell - No hurry to move rates, Comfortable with balance sheet

March 30, 2026 3:01 PM UTC

Fed's Powell is no hurry to tighten in response to the energy price shock, and has a different view on the balance sheet to Warsh.

U.S. Outlook: Investment to Lead Growth, Underlying Inflation Set to Slow

March 24, 2026 12:15 PM UTC

•    The crisis in the Middle East poses upside risks to headline inflation and downside risks to activity and our baseline assumes a 4-8 week war with a partial reversal of energy prices by end Q2 (here). Our forecasts (below) include a soft patch in H2 2026. Entering 2026 however, the U.S. e

DM Rates Outlook: Mixed Policy Rate and Yield Paths

March 24, 2026 8:46 AM UTC

·        The multi quarter outlook for DM rates depends on the length of the Iran war Our baseline is that it will be a 4-8 week war (here) and a 3-4 quarter retracement of oil prices back to pre-war levels – longer from Europe and Asian gas prices. We forecast WTI down to USD80-85 by June

Fed: Leave Door Open To Cut, But

March 18, 2026 7:37 PM UTC

·        Bottom line: The FOMC dots still pointed towards further rate cuts and Powell left the door open – noting it was too early to make judgement on the economic effects of the Iran war.  We feel that the Fed is too optimistic about consumption and thus GDP, given that employment grow

U.S. Fed's Powell - Need progress on tariff-led goods inflation

March 18, 2026 6:49 PM UTC

Fed's Powell is focused on inflation concerns that existed before the energy shock, with the impact of the latter still unclear.

FOMC - No change in rates or median dots but more positive on GDP

March 18, 2026 6:24 PM UTC

The FOMC has left rates unchanged as expected with limited changes to the statement other than to note uncertainty arising from the Middle East with no change in the median dots for 2026, 2027 and 2028. However the FOMC has made upgrades to its growth projections, which can be seen as somewhat hawki

U.S. Private Credit: One To Watch Rather than Systemic Issue

March 17, 2026 10:29 AM UTC

While the U.S. private credit sector could face further problems in 2026/27 (due to the lagged impact of the end of ultra-low rates in 2021-23), this appears to be a sectoral issue.  U.S. banks equity capital and funding are robust enough to weather a further deterioration, though some corporates c

FOMC Preview for March 18: Little change seen in either statement or dots

March 11, 2026 3:37 PM UTC

The FOMC meets on March 18 with rates likely to be left unchanged at 3.5-3.75%. The dots will be updated but we expect them to remain where they were in December, looking for one 25bps easing in 2026 and one more in 2027. The economic forecasts are likely to see only modest changes from September, w

U.S. February CPI - Core rate has slowed, but inflation not yet defeated

March 11, 2026 1:00 PM UTC

February CPI is in line with expectations at 0.3% overall, 0.2% ex food and energy, with the respective gains before rounding being 0.267% and a reasonably subdued 0.216%. Yr/yr rates are unchanged at 2.4% overall and 2.5% ex food and energy. The data is not alarming but inflationary pressures remai