U.S. Fed's Logan - Wasn't convinced inflation falling enough even before war

April 2, 2026 3:00 PM UTC

Fed's Logan, a hawkish voter, had concerns on prices even before the war started.

U.S. Fed's Schmid - Fears inflation could remain near 3%

March 31, 2026 5:19 PM UTC

Fed's Schmid is taking a hawkish view of the oil price risks, but has no vote this year.

U.S. Fed's Powell - No hurry to move rates, Comfortable with balance sheet

March 30, 2026 3:01 PM UTC

Fed's Powell is no hurry to tighten in response to the energy price shock, and has a different view on the balance sheet to Warsh.

U.S. Outlook: Investment to Lead Growth, Underlying Inflation Set to Slow

March 24, 2026 12:15 PM UTC

•    The crisis in the Middle East poses upside risks to headline inflation and downside risks to activity and our baseline assumes a 4-8 week war with a partial reversal of energy prices by end Q2 (here). Our forecasts (below) include a soft patch in H2 2026. Entering 2026 however, the U.S. e

DM Rates Outlook: Mixed Policy Rate and Yield Paths

March 24, 2026 8:46 AM UTC

·        The multi quarter outlook for DM rates depends on the length of the Iran war Our baseline is that it will be a 4-8 week war (here) and a 3-4 quarter retracement of oil prices back to pre-war levels – longer from Europe and Asian gas prices. We forecast WTI down to USD80-85 by June

Fed: Leave Door Open To Cut, But

March 18, 2026 7:37 PM UTC

·        Bottom line: The FOMC dots still pointed towards further rate cuts and Powell left the door open – noting it was too early to make judgement on the economic effects of the Iran war.  We feel that the Fed is too optimistic about consumption and thus GDP, given that employment grow

U.S. Fed's Powell - Need progress on tariff-led goods inflation

March 18, 2026 6:49 PM UTC

Fed's Powell is focused on inflation concerns that existed before the energy shock, with the impact of the latter still unclear.

FOMC - No change in rates or median dots but more positive on GDP

March 18, 2026 6:24 PM UTC

The FOMC has left rates unchanged as expected with limited changes to the statement other than to note uncertainty arising from the Middle East with no change in the median dots for 2026, 2027 and 2028. However the FOMC has made upgrades to its growth projections, which can be seen as somewhat hawki

U.S. Private Credit: One To Watch Rather than Systemic Issue

March 17, 2026 10:29 AM UTC

While the U.S. private credit sector could face further problems in 2026/27 (due to the lagged impact of the end of ultra-low rates in 2021-23), this appears to be a sectoral issue.  U.S. banks equity capital and funding are robust enough to weather a further deterioration, though some corporates c

FOMC Preview for March 18: Little change seen in either statement or dots

March 11, 2026 3:37 PM UTC

The FOMC meets on March 18 with rates likely to be left unchanged at 3.5-3.75%. The dots will be updated but we expect them to remain where they were in December, looking for one 25bps easing in 2026 and one more in 2027. The economic forecasts are likely to see only modest changes from September, w

U.S. February CPI - Core rate has slowed, but inflation not yet defeated

March 11, 2026 1:00 PM UTC

February CPI is in line with expectations at 0.3% overall, 0.2% ex food and energy, with the respective gains before rounding being 0.267% and a reasonably subdued 0.216%. Yr/yr rates are unchanged at 2.4% overall and 2.5% ex food and energy. The data is not alarming but inflationary pressures remai

U.S. Fed's Daly cautious, Waller dovish

March 6, 2026 2:57 PM UTC

Fed's Daly does not vote this year but would probably not ease as soon as March. Fed's Waller looks likely to vote for a March easing, but we expect that would be a dissenting vote.

U.S. Fed Beige Book Summary - Similar to last report, upbeat expectations

March 4, 2026 7:11 PM UTC

The latest Fed Beige Book is only marginally weaker than an improved January report, with positive signals on manufacturing and future expectations.

U.S. Fed's Williams - Sees easing if inflation falls as expected

March 3, 2026 3:41 PM UTC

Fed's Williams remarks are on the dovish side, though not signaling imminent easing.

U.S. Fed's Miran - Wants four 25bps easings this year

February 26, 2026 2:04 PM UTC

Fed's Miran continues to argue a dovish case though less aggressively so given reduced labor market risks.

February 26, 2026 8:24 AM UTC

•    Existing Fed officials and Fed chair designate Warsh have divergent views on the impact of AI in boosting productivity and whether this means lower inflation/policy rates or high business investment/electricity prices argues against lower policy rates and potentially meaning a higher shor

Reciprocal Tariffs: Supreme Court Strike Down

February 20, 2026 4:31 PM UTC

·        The 6-3 vote by the Supreme court and full ruling against reciprocal tariffs means that the Trump administration will likely resort to other tariffs for negotiating leverage.  However, the Trump administration will also pressure to codify existing trade framework deals that have be

Q4 U.S. GDP: Lower Than Expected

February 20, 2026 2:13 PM UTC

Lower than expected Q4 GDP was mainly caused by the temporary government shutdown (-5.1% annualised), while consumer spending remained reasonable at 2.4% and AI related spending helping parts of fixed investment. However, income growth remains lower than consumption and we see this slowing the U.S.

FOMC Minutes: Shows Splits, But Rate Cuts Should Still Arrive

February 19, 2026 9:24 AM UTC

·       The January FOMC minutes show a split Fed, with some sounding mildly hawkish.  However, the district Fed presidents are on the mildly hawkish side, but most are non-voters and we feel that the FOMC voting consensus is more neutral.  Additionally, we feel that Fed is too upbeat on th

Warsh, AI and Lower Policy Rate?

February 16, 2026 10:55 AM UTC

·       Warsh will find it tricky to convince FOMC members that AI is currently boosting productivity and acting as a disinflationary force.  However, Warsh could also try to get the Fed to be more forward looking and less data dependent, which could add some proactivity into Fed debates. Fo

U.S. Fed's Goolsbee - Not on path to 2% inflation

February 13, 2026 8:38 PM UTC

Fed's Goolsbee remains wary of inflation risks after January's CPI

U.S. January CPI - Yr/yr ex food and energy pace slowest since March 2021

February 13, 2026 2:18 PM UTC

January CPI is slightly lower than expected at 0.2% overall though the ex food and energy rate at 0.3% is on consensus, with the core rate almost spot on 0.3% even before rounding. Given a strong year ago rise, yr/yr growth slowed, overall to 2.4% from 2.7% and the core to 2.5% from 2.6%, the latter

U.S. Fed's Schmid - Staying hawkish

February 11, 2026 3:22 PM UTC

Fed's Schmid, who dissented against October and December easings, remains hawkish, but will not vote this year. 

U.S. Fed's Barkin - Looking to complete job on inflation

February 3, 2026 1:49 PM UTC

Fed's Barkin's tone is moderate, hinting at openness towards easing, if not urgency. 

Kevin Warsh Nominated for U.S. FOMC Chair

January 30, 2026 4:13 PM UTC

In October we ranked the five candidates for Fed Chair, putting Trump’s choice, Former Governor Kevin Warsh, in third place, behind current Governors Waller and Bowman but ahead of outsiders Hassett and Rieder. A muted market reaction suggests the market is neither elated nor dejected by the decis

U.S. Fed's Bostic and Waller give contrasting views on the labor market and policy

January 30, 2026 2:35 PM UTC

Fed's Waller justifies his dovish dissent on labor market risks. Bostic however sees reduced labor market risks, and that seems to be the majority view on the FOMC. 

FOMC Pauses With Risks Seen Diminished

January 28, 2026 8:33 PM UTC

The FOMC has left rates unchanged at 3.5-3.75% as expected, with two dissents for a 25bps easing. The statement takes a slightly more optimistic view of the economy than the last one in December. We continue to expect two 25bps easings this year, coming in June and September.

U.S. Fed's Powell - Risks on both sides have diminished

January 28, 2026 7:54 PM UTC

Fed's Powell does not sound in a hurry to ease, but suggests rates can fall once the tariff impact on inflation fades.

FOMC leaves rates unchanged, more positive on economy, two dovish dissents

January 28, 2026 7:20 PM UTC

The FOMC has left rates unchanged at 3.5-3.75% as expected, with two dissents for a 25bps easing, from Miran, as was widely expected, and Waller, which was less so. The statement takes a slightly more optimistic view of the economy than the last one in December.

FOMC Preview for January 28: No change with early 2026 data awaited

January 22, 2026 6:42 PM UTC

The FOMC meets on January 28 and rates look set to be left at 3.5-3.75%, and while rates are likely to move lower in 2026, they are unlikely to give many hints over what is likely in March, with future decisions dependent on data. The FOMC will not update its economic forecasts or dots at this meeti

Trump on Greenland and the Fed

January 21, 2026 4:12 PM UTC

Trump has provided some relief to markets by stating that he will not take Greenland by force, though his tone towards Europe remains hostile, suggesting that he will impose tariffs, which may receive a limited European response. Separately Trump stated he would announce a new Fed Chair soon.

U.S. Fed's Bowman - Fed should avoid signaling a pause in rate cuts

January 16, 2026 4:13 PM UTC

These comments from Fed Governor Bowman may help her chances of becoming the next Fed Chair, if Trump has decided against Hassett.

U.S. Fed's Paulson - Comfortable holding rates steady in January

January 15, 2026 7:33 PM UTC

Fed's Paulson, while no hawk, is happy to leave policy steady in January.