Bank of Japan
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October 31, 2024
October 24, 2024
September 24, 2024
DM Rates Outlook: Rate Cuts Arrive Except Japan
September 24, 2024 9:00 AM UTC
• For U.S. Treasuries, we see 2yr yields coming down further on our baseline soft landing view, as the Fed moves consistently to a 3.00-3.25% Fed Funds rate. However, with considerable Fed easing already discounted, 2yr yield decline should be modest and 2yr yields should bottom mid-2025. 1
Japan Outlook: A Hawkish Take
September 24, 2024 5:30 AM UTC
· GDP growth for 2024 has been revised lower to +0.2% after the consumption contraction in Q1 2024 and the subsequent sluggish recovery in Q2. Private consumption is expected to pick up along improving real wages but its magnitude will be limited by the unwillingness to consume at high
September 20, 2024
September 19, 2024
July 31, 2024
July 29, 2024
June 24, 2024
DM Rates Outlook: Rate Cuts Arrive Except Japan
June 24, 2024 8:45 AM UTC
• For U.S. Treasuries we see a steady easing process from the Fed from September, which can allow 2yr yields to fall consistently. However, the decline in H2 2024 will be slower at the long-end from traditional yield curve steepening pressures and then we see fiscal stress in H1 2025 unde
June 21, 2024
Japan Outlook: Slow but not Steady
June 21, 2024 12:15 AM UTC
• GDP growth for 2024 has been revised lower to +0.4% as private consumption contracted stronger in Q1 2024 from moderating but still persistent inflationary pressure. We forecast consumption to gradually recover throughout the rest of 2024 as real wage turned from negative to positive yet
June 14, 2024
June 11, 2024
May 27, 2024
BoJ's Door Closing But Window Opens
May 27, 2024 5:23 AM UTC
Since the BoJ moved interest rate to 0% in March, most market participants expects further tightening as it is hard to believe the BoJ would hike once after all these years of ultra-loose monetary policy, in face of higher inflation. However, with headline inflation trading closer to 2%, it seems th
May 16, 2024
France and Japan: Debt Fuelled Growth Problem
May 16, 2024 10:30 AM UTC
Most of the surge in debt/GDP in Japan and 40% in France is due to higher government debt and this should not be a binding constraint provided that large scale QT is avoided – we see the ECB slowing QT in 2025 and are skeptical about BOJ QT in the next few years. The adverse impact of higher deb
April 26, 2024
April 25, 2024
BoJ's Intervention and its impact
April 25, 2024 6:24 AM UTC
In the period of time when JPY significantly weakens or strengthens, BoJ will intervene in the FX market either through verbal or actual intervention. As JPY weakened significantly in the past months, once again we found ourselves in the proximity of FX intervention with unknowns for anonymity is ke
April 22, 2024
BoJ Preview: Showing no hurry
April 22, 2024 6:13 AM UTC
Our central forecast is for the BoJ to remain on hold for interest rate and signals the market they are in no rush to further tighten while allowing trend inflation data to lead policy direction in their forward guidance. BoJ has moved interest rate to 0% and officially removed YCC in March, citing
March 25, 2024
Japan Outlook: Beginning of A New Era?
March 25, 2024 4:54 AM UTC
Bottom Line:
Forecast changes: We revised 2024 GDP lower to +0.8% from +0.9% because private consumption is now expected to contract in Q1 2024. 2024 CPI is revised higher to +2.1% from +1.7% to address the stronger wage hike Japanese unions secured.
March 22, 2024
March 19, 2024
March 13, 2024
BoJ Preview: 50-50
March 13, 2024 3:17 AM UTC
Our central forecast is for the BoJ to change forward guidance in March, indicating trend inflation will be achieving target and ultra-ease monetary policy is no longer necessary and hike interest rate to 0% in April as wage growth has accelerated and the latest wage negotiation is likely to ensure
March 12, 2024
Japanese Equities: Yen Headwind Rather than Tailwind
March 12, 2024 11:23 AM UTC
Bottom Line: Japanese equities tailwind from a weak JPY boosting corporate earnings will likely go into reverse, as the extreme JPY undervaluation ebbs with small BOJ rate hikes and Fed easing. We also forecast less nominal GDP growth in 2024 and 2025 than the market consensus. As this come thro
January 23, 2024
January 18, 2024
Japan: 10yr JGB Yields set to Rise Moderately
January 18, 2024 10:15 AM UTC
The more subdued profile of Japanese wages, plus a delay in the 1st BOJ hike, has prompted us to lower the forecast of a rise in 10yr JGB yields in 2024 – though we still see a rise above 1% (Figure 1). As BOJ tightening stops, we see 10yr JGB yields falling back again in 2025.
January 15, 2024
BoJ: The Pace of Exit
January 15, 2024 5:41 AM UTC
The BoJ has kicked the can down to the spring wage negotiation before another step in monetary policy. While current inflation forecast has exceeded BoJ's 2% target in all three items of headline, ex fresh food and ex fresh food & energy, the wage growth did not reach a "sustainable" level, which Ue
December 19, 2023
Japan Outlook: Normalizing Monetary Policy Soon
December 19, 2023 9:00 AM UTC
Bottom Line:
· GDP growth for 2023 has been revised lower to +1.6% as private consumption has been dampened in the second half of 2023 by higher inflation and negative real wage. Sluggish growth should be expected for private consumption in 2024 even when wage hike (to be limited by ec
September 28, 2023
June 22, 2023
DM Rates Outlook: Yield Curve Inversion to Ebb
June 22, 2023 1:03 PM UTC
• A less inverted U.S. Treasury yield curve remains our key strategic view. We see Fed Funds peaking, then a period of elevated policy rates meaning that 2yr yields are elevated for the remainder of 2023, but do come down noticeably in 2024 alongside 75bps of Fed easing being delivered (Figure 1).
June 21, 2023
March 27, 2023
Japan Outlook: Heading back to Square One
March 27, 2023 12:01 AM UTC
Bottom Line:
• GDP for 2023 is revised lower to 1.3% as private consumption & investment are being hurt by negative real wages and a soft global economic outlook with tightening financial conditions in 2023. Government stimulus driven growth is slowing but the trade balance has shown signs of impro
February 22, 2023
In-Depth Research: Quick Roadmap Central Bank Forecast/Rationale - February 2023
February 22, 2023 10:44 AM UTC
M/T Quick Roadmap – Fundamental MMKT/CB Roadmap and Rationale
February 2023
US FEDERAL RESERVE
The February 1 December FOMC meeting saw the pace of tightening slowed to 25bps. Inflation has slowed, but January's CPI details still show broad based inflationary pressures at a pace well above the Fed's
January 18, 2023
January 13, 2023
Money Supply Squeeze
January 13, 2023 1:26 PM UTC
Bottom Line: U.S. and EZ M2 growth is been depressed by the switch from QE to QT and a slowing of lending as aggressive rate hikes bite. While some economists dismiss the usefulness of money supply growth, we include it in a broad framework alongside real and survey numbers in forecasting growth and