Outlook Overview: Turbulent Times

December 17, 2025 7:44 AM UTC

·        The U.S. slowdown remains in focus as the lagged effects of President Trump’s tariff increases continues to feedthrough, though our baseline is for a 2026 soft-landing.  The Supreme court will likely rule against part of Trump’s reciprocal tariffs, which will create short-term

Asia/Pacific (ex-China/Japan) Outlook: Managing Slower Growth Without Losing the Cycle

December 16, 2025 2:43 PM UTC

·       Asia’s 2026 growth is normalizing, not weakening, though the growth outlook reflects resilience under mounting strain rather than acceleration. Larger investment-led economies such as India and Malaysia are sustaining momentum through public capex, infrastructure pipelines, and indu

Americas First: New National Security Strategy

December 9, 2025 8:40 AM UTC

·       The new NSS at one level reads like a Trump/MAGA current list of topics and desires, that may not translate into policy or a major shift of military assets.  Trump has blown hot and cold on Europe and China over the past 12 months and could shift again.  Nevertheless, the NSS does r

RBA Review: Bullock More Hawkish In Press Conference

December 9, 2025 5:16 AM UTC

The RBA meeting on December 8th keep rates unchanged at 3.6% 
Statement and press conference suggest there will be no more rate cut

Continuum Economics Calendar December 2025

November 28, 2025 12:00 PM UTC

Data and Events Calendar December 2025.

RBA Review: Hawkish tiit

November 4, 2025 5:28 AM UTC

The RBA meeting on November 4th keep rates at 3.6% with inflation forecast revised higher

Continuum Economics Calendar November 2025

October 31, 2025 10:00 AM UTC

Data and Events Calendar November 2025.

RBA Review: Data Dependency Continues

September 30, 2025 8:17 AM UTC

The RBA meeting on September 30th keep rates at 3.6% and continue to point toward data dependency

Continuum Economics Calendar October 2025

September 29, 2025 11:00 AM UTC

Data and Events Calendar October 2025.

DM Government Bond Saints v U.S.

September 29, 2025 7:35 AM UTC

·       Overall, although the fiscal saints (Australia/Canada/Germany/Sweden) have merits over the U.S. in the scenario where Fed independence is undermined and more Fed rate cuts occur than warranted by the economics, the 10yr area of other government bond markets may not outperform. 10yr go

Asia/Pacific (ex-China/Japan) Outlook: Balancing Moderation with Resilience

September 23, 2025 11:22 AM UTC

·       Asia’s growth trajectory in 2026 reflects regional resilience under strain. Investment-led economies like India and Malaysia are sustaining momentum via infrastructure push, public capex, and digital industrial policy, while Indonesia’s outlook is clouded by fiscal recalibration a

Outlook Overview: Into 2026

September 23, 2025 8:25 AM UTC

·       The critical question is how much the U.S. economy is slowing down with the feedthrough of President Donald Trump’s tariffs to boost inflation and restrain GDP growth, with the effective rate currently around 17% on U.S. imports. Though semiconductor tariffs are likely, the bulk of

Continuum Economics Calendar September 2025

August 28, 2025 10:35 AM UTC

Data and Events Calendar September 2025.

RBA Review: A Expected

August 12, 2025 5:37 AM UTC

The RBA meeting on August 12th cut rates to 3.6% and continue to point toward data dependency

RBA Preview: Locked and Loaded

August 11, 2025 4:44 AM UTC

The RBA meeting on August 12th will cut rates to 3.6% and indicates more cut to come if data allows

August 5, 2025 9:50 AM UTC

U.S. Treasury spreads versus other DM government bond markets or 10-2yr U.S. Treasuries are not yet showing a risk premium from the Trump administration attacks on the Fed and economic data. Debate over whether the U.S. is seeing a soft or hard landing are reemerging and this will dominate the outlo

Continuum Economics Calendar August 2025

July 30, 2025 11:00 AM UTC

Data and Events Calendar August 2025.

RBA Review: Shows no urgency

July 8, 2025 6:34 AM UTC

The RBA meeting on July 8th hold rates at 3.85% and shows no urgency in cutting

U.S. and Asia Defense Partners

June 30, 2025 7:30 AM UTC

 ·        Japan, S Korea and Australia could eventually agree to some extra commitment to increase (self) defence spending in the next 5-10 years though perhaps not targets like NATO countries.  This could come as part of the trade deal negotiations currently underway.  Japan and S Korea

Continuum Economics Calendar July 2025

June 26, 2025 1:00 PM UTC

Data and Events Calendar July 2025.

June Outlook: Trump’s Fluid Policies

June 25, 2025 10:00 AM UTC

All chapters of the June Outlook are now available and simply click the link below. 

Outlook Overview: Trump’s Fluid Policies

June 25, 2025 7:20 AM UTC

·       President Donald Trump still wants to use the tariff tool, and we see the eventual average tariff rate being in the 13-15% area, lowered by deals but increased by more product tariffs. Any lasting legal block on reciprocal tariffs will likely see the administration pivoting towards ot

Asia/Pacific (ex-China/Japan) Outlook: Slower Trade, Softer Inflation, and Looser Policy

June 24, 2025 9:24 AM UTC

·       Asia’s growth profile in 2025 reflects a region navigating structural transition amid external strain. Investment-led economies like India are benefitting from infrastructure spending, industrial policy momentum, and political continuity. In contrast, trade-reliant markets such as V

Continuum Economics Calendar June 2025

May 27, 2025 1:00 PM UTC

Data and Events Calendar June 2025.

RBA Review: Recognize Inflation Moderates and Upside Risk

May 20, 2025 5:32 AM UTC

The RBA meeting on May 20th cut rates to 3.85% and stated cautious in forward guidance

Continuum Economics Calendar May 2025

April 28, 2025 10:03 AM UTC

Data and Events Calendar May 2025.

Safe Havens Other Than the USD

April 17, 2025 8:30 AM UTC

The USD and U.S. Treasuries are currently not acting like safe havens, as the crisis is U.S. centric with the tariff debacle. 10yr Treasuries can regain safe haven status if a U.S. recession occurs, but U.S. equities are still clearly overvalued versus equity and equity-bond metrics.  We prefer Ind

RBA Review: Recognize Inflation Moderates and Upside Risk

April 1, 2025 5:06 AM UTC

The RBA meeting on April 1st kept rates at 4.1% with no change in forward guidance

RBA Preview: Favors CPI in Mid Range, No Imminent Cut

March 31, 2025 2:00 AM UTC

The RBA meeting on April 1st will keep rates at 4.1% and indicates no imminent cut

Continuum Economics Calendar April 2025

March 28, 2025 11:41 AM UTC

Data and Events Calendar April 2025.

March Outlook: Navigating the Turbulence

March 27, 2025 10:30 AM UTC

All chapters of the March Outlook are now available and simply click the link below. 

Outlook Overview: Navigating the Turbulence

March 26, 2025 9:30 AM UTC

·       More tariffs will arrive from the U.S. from April with product (car, pharma, semiconductors and lumber) and reciprocal tariffs. President Trump has a 3-part approach to tariffs to raise (tax) revenue; bring production back to the U.S. and get fairer trade deals.  This means some of t

Asia/Pacific (ex-China/Japan) Outlook: Resilience Through Realignment

March 25, 2025 10:44 AM UTC

·       In 2025, growth across emerging Asia will remain steady but uneven, with investment-driven economies such as India and Malaysia outperforming on the back of infrastructure and industrial policy momentum. While global demand is set to recover modestly, geopolitical friction and tariff

Continuum Economics Calendar March 2025

February 27, 2025 9:52 AM UTC

Data and Events Calendar March 2025.

RBA Review: It has begun

February 18, 2025 4:47 AM UTC

The RBA meeting on February 18th cut rates on by 25bps to 4.1% and suggest data dependency going forward

RBA Preview: Signaling Earlier Cut

February 17, 2025 2:53 AM UTC

The RBA meeting on February 18th will keep rates on hold at 4.35% and signal a cut in April

The Aussie Chapter 5.2: Another tale of two cities

February 3, 2025 5:25 AM UTC

In Chapter 5.2, we will continue to look into the dynamic between the Aussie and Kiwi after central bank policy part ways and what to expect when RBA tilts towards easing.

Continuum Economics Calendar February 2025

January 29, 2025 4:50 PM UTC

Data and Events Calendar February 2025.

December Outlook: The Trump Effect- Tariffs, Fiscal Shifts and Geopolitics

December 30, 2024 8:05 AM UTC

All chapters of the December Outlook are now available and simply click the link below. 

December Outlook Webinar on Jan 7: The Trump Effect- Tariffs, Fiscal Shifts and Geopolitics

December 24, 2024 8:30 AM UTC

    The U.S. economy’s momentum remains reasonable before the impact of President-elect Trump’s policies in 2025 and 2026.  While high uncertainty exists on the scale and timing of policy, the strategic bias is clear – sizeable tax cuts that will boost the budget deficit; tariffs (threats

Continuum Economics Calendar January 2025

December 20, 2024 2:33 PM UTC

Data and Events Calendar January 2025.

December Outlook: The Trump Effect- Tariffs, Fiscal Shifts and Geopolitics

December 20, 2024 12:15 PM UTC

All chapters of the December Outlook are now available and simply click the link below. 

Asia/Pacific (ex-China/Japan) Outlook: Trump Tariffs, China +1 and Growth

December 19, 2024 10:57 AM UTC

Emerging Asian economies are projected to lead global growth in 2025, with India and Southeast Asia at the forefront. These regions will anchor resilience in Asia, even as China's economic growth remains moderate.  
Inflation trajectories will vary across Asia, with India experiencing sticky prices

Outlook Overview: The Trump Effect- Tariffs, Fiscal Shifts and Geopolitics

December 19, 2024 9:25 AM UTC

·        The U.S. economy momentum remains reasonable before President elect Trump’s policies impact in 2025 and 2026.  While high uncertainty exists on the scale and timing of policies, the strategic bias is clear – sizeable tax cuts that will boost the budget deficit; tariffs (threats

Jan 7 Outlook Webinar: The Trump Effect- Tariffs, Fiscal Shifts and Geopolitics

December 18, 2024 1:23 PM UTC

    The U.S. economy’s momentum remains reasonable before the impact of President-elect Trump’s policies in 2025 and 2026.  While high uncertainty exists on the scale and timing of policy, the strategic bias is clear – sizeable tax cuts that will boost the budget deficit; tariffs (threats

RBA Review: Closer, but not yet

December 10, 2024 5:16 AM UTC

The RBA meeting on December 10th kept rates on hold at 4.35%

Continuum Economics Calendar December 2024

November 29, 2024 9:51 AM UTC

Data and Events Calendar December 2024.

Trump International: DM Countries

November 21, 2024 7:06 AM UTC

Much uncertainty still exists on policy but in 2025 the EU will likely be under pressure from targeted new tariffs by the Trump administration, while also being asked to spend more on defense spending.  Purchasing extra LNG and military hardware from the U.S. is one way towards a potential trade de

RBA Review: Waiting to ease

November 5, 2024 6:10 AM UTC

The RBA meeting on November 5th kept rates on hold