South African Reserve Bank
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March 25, 2025 7:00 AM UTC
· In South Africa, we foresee average headline inflation will stand at 4.1% and 4.5% in 2025 and 2026, respectively, despite there are upside risks to inflation such as remaining power cuts (loadshedding), tariff hikes by Eskom, spike in food and housing prices, and global uncertainties. We
January 24, 2025 1:19 PM UTC
Bottom Line: After StatsSA announced on January 22 that annual inflation stood at 3.0% in December, which is below midpoint of target band of 3% - 6%, we now think it is likely that South African Reserve Bank (SARB) will cut the key rate from 7.75% to 7.5% on January 30 as inflation remains moderate
January 9, 2025 11:23 AM UTC
Bottom line: After South African Reserve Bank (SARB) started cutting the key rate on September 19 and decreased the rate from 8.25% to 7.75% in 2024 given fall in inflation below midpoint of target band of 3% - 6%, suspended power cuts (loadshedding) and deceleration in inflation expectation, we for
December 17, 2024 8:00 AM UTC
· In South Africa, our end-year policy rate prediction remains at 7.0% for 2025 and 6.5% for 2026. We foresee headline inflation will fall to 4.2% and 4.6% in 2025 and 2026, respectively, considering power cuts (loadshedding) are relieved and the domestic fiscal outlook is moderately stab
November 21, 2024 3:58 PM UTC
Bottom line: South African Reserve Bank (SARB) cut the key rate by 25 bps to 7.75% at its final meeting of the year on November 21 given power cuts (loadshedding) are suspended, inflation expectations decelerated, and CPI softened further to 2.8% YoY in October due to falling fuel prices and slowing
October 8, 2024 5:25 PM UTC
Bottom line: After South African Reserve Bank (SARB) started cutting the key rate on September 19 and decreased it from 8.25% to 8.0% given fall in inflation below midpoint of target band of 3% - 6%, suspended power cuts (loadshedding) and deceleration in inflation expectation, we now foresee the ra
September 25, 2024 7:00 AM UTC
· In Turkiye, we still foresee upside risks emanating from buoyant domestic demand, the stickiness of services inflation, and adverse geopolitical impacts leading average inflation to stand at 58.8% and 35.3% in 2024 and 2025, respectively. We think Central Bank of Republic of Turkiye (CBRT
September 19, 2024 3:57 PM UTC
Bottom line: As we expected, South African Reserve Bank (SARB) started cutting the key rate at the upcoming MPC meeting on September 19 and decreased it from 8.25% to 8.0% given recent fall in inflation, suspended power cuts (loadshedding) after March, deceleration in inflation expectations and a re
September 12, 2024 7:09 PM UTC
Bottom line: South African Reserve Bank (SARB) will likely start cutting the key rate at the upcoming MPC meeting on September 19 and decrease the rate from 8.25% to 8.0% given recent fall in inflation, suspended power cuts (loadshedding) after March, deceleration in inflation expectations and a rel
July 24, 2024 11:25 AM UTC
Bottom Line: According to the inflation figures announced by Department of Statistics of South Africa (Stats SA) on July 24, CPI marginally decreased to 5.1% YoY in June due to slowdown in costs for food, fuel and transportation coupled with suspended power cuts (load shedding) in June. The inflatio
May 30, 2024 3:06 PM UTC
Bottom line: As widely expected, South African Reserve Bank (SARB) kept the key rate constant at a 15-year high of 8.25% on May 30 despite inflation rate fell for a second consecutive month in April due to less severe power cuts (load shedding), a firmer South African rand (ZAR) coupled with lower f
April 24, 2024 9:26 AM UTC
Bottom line: According to the Monetary Policy Review Report by the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) on April 23, the risk of higher inflation still remains and inflation returning to the midpoint of the target band is only expected in the last quarter of 2025. SARB highlighted in its report that ma
March 27, 2024 3:26 PM UTC
Bottom line: As widely expected, South African Reserve Bank (SARB) kept the key rate constant at 8.25% on March 27. It appears the decision targeted to anchor inflation expectations around the target midpoint, and enhance confidence in achieving the inflation goal as SARB signalled that its fight to
March 25, 2024 2:00 PM UTC
· Unlike South Africa and Russia, Turkiye continued with tightening monetary policy in Q1 due to stubborn inflation, pressure on FX and reserves. Meanwhile, Russia and South Africa halted their tightening cycles as of 2024 and will likely start cutting interest rates in Q3 depending on how
January 29, 2024 9:00 AM UTC
Bottom line: We expect 1.3-1.5% GDP growth in South Africa in the 2025-2030 period. We are concerned with the structural problems affecting economic dynamics negatively, including loadshedding, transportation bottlenecks, and shrinking trade surplus. Despite structural problems; growing population,
January 25, 2024 2:02 PM UTC
Bottom line: As widely expected, South African Reserve Bank (SARB) kept the key rate at 8.25% on January 25, given recent fall in inflation, coupled with relatively less power cuts (loadshedding), a stable Rand (ZAR) and softer global oil prices since December. It appears the decision targeted to a
January 18, 2024 1:57 PM UTC
Bottom line: South African Reserve Bank (SARB) is likely to keep the key rate at 8.25% at the upcoming meeting on January 25, given recent fall in inflation, relatively less power cuts (loadshedding) and a stable Rand (ZAR) since December.
December 18, 2023 10:01 AM UTC
· The EMEA economies such as Russia and Turkiye will continue with restrictive monetary policy in H1 2024 due to the desire to control inflation. Meanwhile South Africa has likely halted its tightening cycle at 8.25% and will likely start cutting interest rates in Q2 2024 depending on how soon in
December 13, 2023 1:43 PM UTC
Bottom Line: After increasing sharply on food and fuel prices in October with 5.9%, inflation cooled off to 5.5% in November largely due to slowing fuel prices and transport prices. Core inflation slightly rose to 4.5% YoY in November from 4.4% in October. Department of Statistics of South Africa (S
November 14, 2023 1:07 PM UTC
Bottom line: We expect 1.3-1.5% GDP growth in South Africa in the 2025-2030 period. We are concerned with the structural problems affecting economic dynamics negatively, including loadshedding, transportation bottlenecks, and shrinking trade surplus. Despite structural problems; growing population,