Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey
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January 23, 2025 12:06 PM UTC
Bottom Line: After Central Bank of Turkiye (CBRT) lowered its key policy rate to 47.5% on December 26, the easing cycle continued on January 23 as CBRT reduced the policy rate by 250 bps to 45% backed by the deceleration trend in inflation continued in December, monthly inflation stood below expecta
January 8, 2025 3:06 PM UTC
Bottom Line: After Central Bank of Turkiye (CBRT) lowered its key policy rate by 250 bps to 47.5% on December 26, which was the first rate cut in around two years, we believe the rate cuts will continue in 2025 following inflation fighting drive in 2024 while our end year key rate prediction remains
December 17, 2024 8:00 AM UTC
· In South Africa, our end-year policy rate prediction remains at 7.0% for 2025 and 6.5% for 2026. We foresee headline inflation will fall to 4.2% and 4.6% in 2025 and 2026, respectively, considering power cuts (loadshedding) are relieved and the domestic fiscal outlook is moderately stab
November 21, 2024 11:48 AM UTC
Bottom Line: Central Bank of Turkiye (CBRT) kept the policy rate stable at 50% for the eighth consecutive month on November 21. In its press release, CBRT highlighted that tight monetary stance will be maintained until a significant and sustained decline in the underlying trend of monthly inflation
October 17, 2024 4:27 PM UTC
Bottom Line: Central Bank of Turkiye (CBRT) kept the policy rate stable at 50% for the seventh consecutive month on October 17. CBRT’s press release remained almost unchanged, as the regulator highlighted that tight monetary stance will be maintained until a significant and sustained decline in th
October 15, 2024 6:30 PM UTC
Bottom Line: Turkiye announced the Medium-Term Program (MTP) for 2024-2027 on September 5. According to the announcement, the main goal of the program aims to bring inflation down to single digits, and ensure price stability. GDP growth aimed to accelerate to 4% next year, 4.5% in 2026 and 5% in 202
September 25, 2024 7:00 AM UTC
· In Turkiye, we still foresee upside risks emanating from buoyant domestic demand, the stickiness of services inflation, and adverse geopolitical impacts leading average inflation to stand at 58.8% and 35.3% in 2024 and 2025, respectively. We think Central Bank of Republic of Turkiye (CBRT
September 19, 2024 1:11 PM UTC
Bottom Line: As predictions were centred around no change, Central Bank of Turkiye (CBRT) kept the policy rate stable at 50% for the sixth consecutive month on September 19. CBRT reiterated in a statement that tight monetary stance will be maintained until a significant and sustained decline in the
August 29, 2024 10:24 AM UTC
Bottom Line: Central Bank of Turkiye (CBRT) recently released its summary of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting after keeping the policy rate stable at 50% on August 20. CBRT said in its summary that tight monetary stance will be maintained until a significant and sustained decline in the u
July 23, 2024 1:48 PM UTC
Bottom Line: As predictions were centred around no change, Central Bank of Turkiye (CBRT) kept the policy rate stable at 50% on July 23. CBRT said in a statement that tight monetary stance will be maintained until a significant and sustained decline in the underlying trend of monthly inflation is ob
June 27, 2024 12:32 PM UTC
Bottom Line: As predictions were centred around no change, Central Bank of Turkiye (CBRT) kept the policy rate stable at 50% on June 27 despite galloping inflation edged up to 75.5% in May, up from 69.8% in April. CBRT said in a statement on June 27 that "(…) the tight monetary stance will be main
May 23, 2024 7:30 PM UTC
Bottom Line: As predictions were centred around no change, Central Bank of Turkiye (CBRT) kept the policy rate stable at 50% on May 23 despite galloping inflation which edged up to 69.8% in April, up from 68.5% in March. CBRT said in a statement on May 23 that "(...)considering the lagged effects of
April 25, 2024 3:25 PM UTC
Bottom Line: As predictions were centred around no change, Central Bank of Turkiye (CBRT) kept the policy rate stable at 50% on April 25 despite galloping inflation, and pressure on FX lately. According to the CBRT statement, monetary policy stance will be tightened in case a significant and persist
March 25, 2024 2:00 PM UTC
· Unlike South Africa and Russia, Turkiye continued with tightening monetary policy in Q1 due to stubborn inflation, pressure on FX and reserves. Meanwhile, Russia and South Africa halted their tightening cycles as of 2024 and will likely start cutting interest rates in Q3 depending on how
March 21, 2024 4:26 PM UTC
Bottom Line: Despite predictions were centred around no change, Central Bank of Turkiye (CBRT) increased the policy rate by 500 bps to 50% on March 21 due to strong inflation, and pressure on FX and reserves lately. According to the CBRT statement, the current level of the policy rate will be mainta
February 22, 2024 12:53 PM UTC
Bottom Line: As we predicted, Central Bank of Turkiye (CBRT) ended monetary hiking cycle under new governor, and kept the key rate stable at 45% after eighth straight rate hikes since presidential elections last May. According to the CBRT statement, the current level of the policy rate will be maint
January 25, 2024 11:52 AM UTC
Bottom Line: As we pencilled a 250 bps policy rate hike by Central Bank of Turkiye (CBRT) on January 25 MPC meeting, CBRT continued its monetary tightening cycle by lifting the key rate from 42.5% to 45%. This is the eighth straight rate hike by CBRT since May presidential elections, simply to fight
December 21, 2023 12:19 PM UTC
As we pencilled a 250 bps policy rate hike by Central Bank of Turkiye (CBRT) on December 21 MPC meeting, CBRT continued its monetary tightening cycle by lifting the key rate from 40% to 42.5%. This is the seventh straight rate hike by CBRT since May presidential elections, simply to fight against ga
December 18, 2023 10:01 AM UTC
· The EMEA economies such as Russia and Turkiye will continue with restrictive monetary policy in H1 2024 due to the desire to control inflation. Meanwhile South Africa has likely halted its tightening cycle at 8.25% and will likely start cutting interest rates in Q2 2024 depending on how soon in