Taiwan, Province of China
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April 18, 2024
China and the South China Sea
April 18, 2024 2:00 PM UTC
Bottom Line: A China coastguard vessel blocked two Philippines government vessels over the weekend in the Second Thomas shoal area near the Philippines, which has raised questions over whether the South China Sea will be another geopolitical flashpoint. We would say not in 2024, both given China
April 17, 2024
March 22, 2024
Asia/Pacific (ex-China/Japan) Outlook: Election Spending to Drive Growth
March 22, 2024 12:18 PM UTC
· In 2024, growth trends across emerging Asia will exhibit a mixed pattern. Encouragingly, there will be a resurgence in demand for global electronics following a period of stagnation in 2022‑23, which will provide a boost to regional trade. Moreover, the initiation of monetary policy
March 11, 2024
Elections to Keep Asia in Limelight in 2024
March 11, 2024 9:05 AM UTC
2024 is turning out to be a significant year for the Asian political scene. At the start of the year, eight countries were scheduled to hold elections this year, with close to 2.2bn people voting this year across emerging Asian economies.
With elections now over in four of the eight countries, the
March 06, 2024
March 04, 2024
Taiwan Speaker Reduces China/Taiwan War Risk
March 4, 2024 10:30 AM UTC
Bottom Line: Taiwan new speaker, Han Kuo Yu, has a willingness to open dialogue with China. This does not stop China likely undertaking large scale military exercises in the spring around Taiwan, as it still seeks to pressure the incoming DPP president. However, we see the new Taiwan speaker elect
January 16, 2024
January 15, 2024
Taiwan: DPP Weaker than 2020
January 15, 2024 8:49 AM UTC
The DPP have won the Taiwan presidential election. However, the DPP has lost its majority in parliament, while the 3rd party (Taiwan People Party (TPP) are signalling they will not form a coalition with (Kuomintang) KTT. This will restrain the DPP. However, China will still likely show its dis
January 03, 2024
Taiwan: Gray Warfare After A Mixed Election
January 3, 2024 11:02 AM UTC
With the Taiwan elections on January 13 expected to re-elect the DPP, and the U.S. focused on Ukraine and Middle East, how will the Taiwan situation develop after the election and in the coming years?
Figure 1: Taiwan Scenarios for the Next 5 Years
Source: Continuum Economics
More Gray W
December 18, 2023
Asia/Pacific (ex-China/Japan) Outlook: Going Big, Going Strong
December 18, 2023 10:05 AM UTC
Our Forecasts
Source: Continuum Economics
Risks to Our Views
Source: Continuum Economics
Regional Dynamics: Mixed Prospects in 2024
In H1-2024, much like in 2023, the emerging economies in Asia will continue to outperform other emerging markets and display notable resilience in comparison to develope
October 23, 2023
Asia and Elections: Country Risk
October 23, 2023 7:29 AM UTC
Asia Regional Overview
India continues to be an investor haven supported by strong economic growth and stable policy guidance. The political environment is heating up in India as well, as the country prepares for regional elections in five states in end-2023 and then for the larger general elections
September 15, 2023
Taiwan Country Risk Ratings
September 15, 2023 10:18 AM UTC
Though China policy is one of eventual reunification, it remains difficult for China to successfully achieve this by military means currently with one large and two mid-sized aircraft carriers. It could be into the 2030’s before China has sufficient naval capabilities. Nevertheless, China wants
February 27, 2023
Emerging Asia Faces Crosswinds
February 27, 2023 9:31 AM UTC
Indonesia: Lowest Trade Surplus Since May 2022
Indonesia’s trade surplus came in lower than market expectations as it dipped to $3.9bn in December 2022, from $5.1bn in November. The overall trade balance for Indonesia was at a record high of $54bn in 2022, on account of higher commodity prices duri
August 10, 2022
4th Taiwan Straits Crisis
August 10, 2022 11:12 AM UTC
Figure 1: Taiwan Straits Exercises nearer than 1995-96
Source: CSIS
Temporary Military Flexing or Prelude to Invasion, Blockade or Tensions?
China's military exercises in the Taiwan straits are not at the same intensity but are being extended, as China shifts to a new normal on Taiwan. China wants to