Trump’s Peace Framework as a Path to a Late 2026 Settlement?

December 23, 2025 1:48 PM UTC

Bottom Line: With Russia maintaining its long-held demands in Ukraine and negotiations intensifying around President Trump’s latest peace proposal, our baseline view is that this framework will serve as the primary catalyst for a settlement. We anticipate a Russia-friendly peace deal (70% probabil

Russia’s Inflation is Expected to Continue to Soften in December

December 22, 2025 2:11 PM UTC

Bottom Line: After edging down to 6.6% in November, we expect Russian inflation to continue its decreasing pattern in December owing to lagged impacts of previous aggressive monetary tightening and relative resilience of RUB. December inflation figures will be announced on December 29, and we forese

South Africa Inflation Moderately Softens to 3.5% y/y in November

December 17, 2025 5:08 PM UTC

Bottom Line: Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) announced on December 17 that annual inflation softened moderately to 3.5% y/y in November from 3.6% the previous month, but food and restaurant prices remained worrisome. Despite inflation staying within the South African Reserve Bank’s (SARB) 1 pe

Asia/Pacific (ex-China/Japan) Outlook: Managing Slower Growth Without Losing the Cycle

December 16, 2025 2:43 PM UTC

·       Asia’s 2026 growth is normalizing, not weakening, though the growth outlook reflects resilience under mounting strain rather than acceleration. Larger investment-led economies such as India and Malaysia are sustaining momentum through public capex, infrastructure pipelines, and indu

EMEA Outlook: Uncertainties Give Mixed Signals

December 16, 2025 7:00 AM UTC

·     In South Africa, we foresee average headline inflation will stand at 3.8% and 3.5% in 2026 and 2027, respectively. Upside risks to inflation remain such as, utility costs, and supply chain destructions. We see growth to be 1.4% and 1.5% in 2026 and 2027, respectively. Risks to the growth

Exceeding Expectations: Russia Inflation Eased Fast to 6.6% y/y in November

December 11, 2025 8:15 AM UTC

Bottom Line: Russian inflation continued its decreasing pattern in November and edged down to 6.6% owing to lagged impacts of previous aggressive monetary tightening, and relative resilience of RUB despite food and services prices continued to surge in November. We think the inflation will continue

Turkiye’s Inflation Eased to 31.1% y/y in November, Hitting Below Expectations

December 3, 2025 1:40 PM UTC

Bottom line: According to Turkish Statistical Institute’s (TUIK) announcement on December 3, Turkiye’s inflation softened to 31.1% y/y in November backed by moderate unprocessed food prices. We continue to think upside-tilted inflation risks will likely limit the downward trend during the disin

South African GDP Growth Hit 2.1% y/y in Q3, Marking the Fastest Expansion Since Q3 2022

December 2, 2025 8:03 PM UTC

Bottom Line: Department of Statistics of South Africa (Stats SA) announced Q3 GDP growth on December 2. South African economy grew by 2.1% YoY in Q3, the fastest expansion since Q3 2022. We think that the growth momentum will continue to be supported by low inflation, improved consumer sentiment, fe

Turkish Economy Expanded by 3.7% in Q3 Backed by Robust HH Consumption and Investments

December 1, 2025 10:41 AM UTC

Bottom Line: Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK) announced GDP growth for Q3 on December 1. Turkish economy grew by 3.7% YoY in Q3 backed by household consumption, investments, and government spending.

Turkiye GDP Growth Preview: Economy will Expand by Around 4% in Q3

November 27, 2025 4:22 PM UTC

Bottom Line: Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK) will announce Q3 GDP growth on December 1 and we expect that Turkish economy will expand around 4.0% YoY backed by investments, strong construction and industry activities in Q3. Of course, growth figure could hit below our expectations due to the we

Turkiye Inflation Preview: Inflation will Likely Soften to 32.0% in November

November 24, 2025 6:43 PM UTC

Bottom line: After hitting 32.9% annually in October, we expect Turkiye’s inflation will likely soften to around 32.0% in November backed by moderate food prices while upside-tilted inflation risks continue to limit the downward trend during the ongoing disinflationary process. We foresee MoM in

South Africa Inflation Edged Up to 3.6% y/y in October, Marking the Highest Reading Since September 2024

November 19, 2025 3:53 PM UTC

Bottom Line: Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) announced on November 19 that annual inflation edged up to 3.6% YoY in October due to accelerated transport, alcoholic beverages and tobacco, and recreation costs. Despite inflation staying  within the South African Reserve Bank’s (SARB) 1 percenta

Slowest Rate of Growth for Russia Since Q1 2023: 0.6% y/y in Q3 2025

November 14, 2025 6:06 PM UTC

Bottom Line: According to Ministry of Economic Development’s preliminary figures, Russia's GDP expanded by a moderate 0.6% y/y in Q3, marking the slowest rate of growth since Q1 2023 showing the economic slowdown in Russia is more evident now. We think Central Bank of Russia’s (CBR) previous agg

Russia’s Inflation Softened to 7.7% y/y in October

November 14, 2025 5:00 PM UTC

Bottom Line: As expected, Russian inflation continued its decreasing pattern in October and edged down to 7.7% thanks to lagged impacts of previous aggressive monetary tightening, and relative resilience of RUB particularly after July. Despite fall in inflation; we think the inflation will continue

Russia’s Inflation is Expected to Continue to Soften in October Likely Hitting Below 8.0% y/y

November 6, 2025 2:39 PM UTC

Bottom Line: We expect Russian inflation to continue its decreasing pattern in October thanks to lagged impacts of previous aggressive monetary tightening coupled with softening food prices and decreasing core inflation. October inflation figures will be announced on November 14, and we foresee Yr/Y

Inflation Slightly Edged Down in October: But MoM Stood High at 2.5%

November 3, 2025 10:50 AM UTC

Bottom line: Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK) announced October inflation figures on November 3. Turkiye’s y/y inflation moderately softened to around 32.9% in October from 33.3% in September while upside-tilted inflation risks continued limiting the downward trend during the ongoing disinfla

Turkiye: Macroeconomic Problems Limit Long Term Growth

October 30, 2025 12:25 PM UTC

Bottom line: We forecast 3.5%-4.0% GDP growth in Turkiye in the 2026-2030 period. We are concerned with the macroeconomic problems will stay critical until 2027/2028, including stubborn inflation, trade and budget deficits, and weakening Turkish Lira (TRY). Despite growing population and young labor

Turkiye Inflation Preview: Inflation will Slightly Soften in October Despite Risks Dominate

October 28, 2025 4:43 PM UTC

Bottom line: After hitting 33.3% annually in September, we expect Turkiye’s inflation will likely soften moderately to around 32.5% in October while upside-tilted inflation risks limiting the downward trend during the ongoing disinflationary process. September inflation suggested that the pace o

South Africa Inflation Slightly Surged to 3.4% YoY in September

October 22, 2025 2:01 PM UTC

Bottom Line: Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) announced on October 22 that annual inflation edged up to 3.4% YoY in September from 3.3% YoY in August due to accelerated housing, restaurant and utilities costs. Despite inflation is still within the South African Reserve Bank’s (SARB) 3%-6% targe

Preview: CBR will Likely Hold the Key Rate Stable at 17% on October 24

October 16, 2025 1:09 PM UTC

Bottom Line: We expect Central Bank of Russia (CBR) to hold the policy rate constant at 17% during the next MPC on October 24 since the pace of the fall in inflation decelerated in September due to heightened gasoline prices after Ukraine stepped up hitting oil refineries in Russia; which could also

Tourism and Services Income Helped Turkish Current Account in August

October 13, 2025 1:59 PM UTC

Bottom Line: According to the figures announced by the Central Bank of Turkiye (CBRT) on October 13, Turkiye’s current account surplus (CAS) stood at USD5.5 billion in August 2025 from USD4.9 billion in the same month of the previous year, hitting the largest on record, thanks to strong tourism an

Russia’s Inflation Softened to 17-Month Low in September

October 10, 2025 7:02 PM UTC

Bottom Line: Russian inflation continued its decreasing pattern in September, and hit the lowest in 17-months after with 7.98% y/y, particularly thanks to lagged impacts of previous aggressive monetary. According to Rosstat’s announcement on October 10, core inflation eased to 7.7% y/y from 8% y/y

Enthusiastic Turkish Medium Term Program Towards 2026-2028 Aims to Find Solutions to Macroeconomic Issues… But Road is Bumpy

October 9, 2025 1:26 PM UTC

Bottom Line: According to the recently announced Medium-Term Program (MTP) for 2026-2028, the main goal of the program remained bringing inflation down to single digits and ensuring price stability soon. Despite GDP growth is forecasted to be 3.8% next year, 4.3% in 2027 and 5% in 2028, we think the

CBRT’s Inflation Target for end-2025 will Likely Be Missed as Actual Inflation Deviates from the Targets

October 7, 2025 5:45 PM UTC

Bottom line: After inflation slightly increased to 33.3% y/y in September from 32.9% y/y in August driven by higher education, housing and food prices, Central Bank of Turkiye (CBRT) governor Karahan announced on October 7 that CBRT will ensure that inflation remains consistent with interim targets

15-Month Consecutive Falling Streak Ends: Turkiye Inflation Surged to 33.3% in September

October 3, 2025 9:54 AM UTC

Bottom line: Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK) announced on October 3 that the inflation slightly increased to 33.3% y/y in September from 32.9% y/y in August driven by higher education, housing and food prices, ending the 15-month consecutive falling streak. Increasing inflation, upside-tilted

Russia’s Growth Continues to Lose Steam

October 2, 2025 11:17 AM UTC

Bottom Line: According to a recent announcement by the Ministry of Economic Development, Russia's GDP expanded by a moderate 0.4% YoY in August, meeting the same pace in the previous month, driven by manufacturing, retail trade and agriculture activities. According to the announcement, the growth in

Russia’s Inflation is Expected to Continue to Soften in September

October 1, 2025 1:35 PM UTC

Bottom Line: We expect Russian inflation to continue its decreasing pattern in September, after hitting the softest rate since April of 2024 with 8.1% YoY in August, particularly thanks to lagged impacts of previous aggressive monetary tightening coupled with softening services and food prices. Sep

War in Ukraine: No Light Yet at the End of the Tunnel

September 26, 2025 12:34 PM UTC

Bottom Line: Despite expectations from the 80th United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) held in New York were high, it did not yield a solution to the war in Ukraine, but an escalation between the U.S. and Russia. The claims by president Trump as he shifted his position on the war, saying for the f

Asia/Pacific (ex-China/Japan) Outlook: Balancing Moderation with Resilience

September 23, 2025 11:22 AM UTC

·       Asia’s growth trajectory in 2026 reflects regional resilience under strain. Investment-led economies like India and Malaysia are sustaining momentum via infrastructure push, public capex, and digital industrial policy, while Indonesia’s outlook is clouded by fiscal recalibration a

EMEA Outlooks Stay Mixed into 2026: Domestic and Global Uncertainties

September 22, 2025 6:58 AM UTC

·     In South Africa, we foresee average headline inflation will stand at 3.4% and 4.2% in 2025 and 2026, respectively, despite upside risks to inflation such as swings in food prices, supply chain destructions including energy shortages and port inefficiencies and global uncertainties. We see

South Africa Inflation Slightly Softened to 3.3% YoY in August

September 17, 2025 1:17 PM UTC

Bottom Line: Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) announced on September 17 that annual inflation softened  to 3.3% YoY in August from 3.5% in July thanks to slower food price growth and falling fuel costs. Despite inflation is still within the South African Reserve Bank’s (SARB) 3%-6% target rang

Turkiye’s Inflation Slightly Eased to 32.9% YoY in August... But, Monthly Inflation is Still Over 2.0%

September 3, 2025 4:11 PM UTC

Bottom line: Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK) announced on September 3 that the inflation slightly softened to 32.9% y/y in August from 33.5% y/y in July driven by lagged impacts of previous monetary tightening, tighter fiscal measures and suppressed wages. August figure came in slightly above

Protests Return to Jakarta—No Threat to Regime, But Signal to Watch

September 2, 2025 12:41 PM UTC

Indonesia’s recent protests are not just about housing allowances—they reflect deeper disillusionment with elite politics. The government may contain unrest in the short term, but the structural issues driving dissent will persist. For businesses and investors, expect periodic social volatility,

Hitting Beyond Expectations thanks to Construction Activities: Turkiye’s GDP Growth Rebounded Strong in Q2

September 1, 2025 10:55 AM UTC

Bottom Line: According to Turkish Statistical Institute’s (TUIK) announcement on September 1, Turkish economy increased by a strong 4.8% YoY despite political turbulence after arrest of Istanbul mayor and opposition’s presidential candidate Ekrem Imamoglu in Q2, prolonged monetary tightening eff

South Africa GDP Growth Preview: Moderate Growth Will Resume in Q2

August 27, 2025 3:22 PM UTC

Bottom line: Department of Statistics of South Africa (Stats SA) will announce Q2 GDP growth on September 3, and we expect that South African economy will likely grow by around 1.0%-1.2% YoY in Q2 2025. We think that the growth momentum will continue to be supported by low inflation and interest rat

Turkiye GDP Growth Preview: Slowdown Will Continue in Q2

August 26, 2025 5:14 PM UTC

Bottom Line: Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK) will announce Q2 GDP growth on September 1 and we expect that Turkish economy will expand around 1.7% -2.0% YoY backed by private consumption despite early indicators demonstrate a lower acceleration rate in domestic demand amid tightening financial

South Africa Inflation Surges: 3.5% YoY in June

August 20, 2025 11:12 AM UTC

Bottom Line: Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) announced on August 20 that annual inflation rose to 3.5% YoY in July from 3.0% in June due to elevated prices of food and non-alcoholic beverages; housing and utilities; and restaurants and accommodation services. MoM prices surged by 0.9% in July, m

Trump-Putin Summit: No Ceasefire Agreement, Possible Concessions Discussed

August 18, 2025 12:29 PM UTC

Bottom Line: U.S. President Trump and Russian President Putin met in Alaska on August 15 to discuss the fate of war in Ukraine. The meeting lasted three hours, but did not yield an immediate ceasefire agreement as we expected. After the meeting, Trump and Putin both signaled what could happen next i

CBRT Kept Its End-Year Inflation Forecast at 24%, and Announced Its New Interim Targets

August 14, 2025 4:01 PM UTC

Bottom Line: Central Bank of Turkiye (CBRT) released its third quarterly inflation report of the year on August 14, and kept its inflation forecast constant at 24% for 2025, 16% by the end of 2026 and 9% by end-2027. CBRT governor Karahan said the regulator decided to separate the targets from its i

Russian Economy is Slowing: GDP Growth Continued to Lose Steam in Q2 2025

August 14, 2025 9:23 AM UTC

Bottom Line: According to Russian Federal Statistics Service (Rosstat) figures, Russia's GDP expanded by 1.1% YoY in Q2, the slowest pace of growth since the economy resumed expansion in Q2 2023, driven by military spending, investments, higher wages and fiscal stimulus. We think Central Bank of R

Deceleration in Inflation Resumes in Russia: 8.8% YoY in July

August 13, 2025 7:28 PM UTC

Bottom Line: According to Russian Federal Statistics Service (Rosstat) data on August 13, inflation stood at 8.8% YoY in July after hitting 9.4% YoY in June, ignited by higher non-food and services prices. Despite inflation eased for a fourth straight month, we foresee inflation will continue to st

Turkiye Inflation will Slightly Soften in July: Tax Adjustments and Gas Price Hike in July Will Limit the Fall

July 30, 2025 8:35 AM UTC

Bottom line: After easing to 35.1% annually in June, we expect Turkiye’s consumer price index (CPI) will continue to soften moderately in July to 34.1%-34.3% as tax adjustments and energy price hikes in July will limit the downward trend. Despite tight monetary policy and moderately falling dema

Indonesia’s 2026 Blueprint: Growth Goals Amid a Shaky Global Backdrop

July 28, 2025 5:54 AM UTC

Indonesia’s newly approved 2026 macroeconomic framework targets robust growth, fiscal discipline, and poverty eradication. However, external headwinds—including unresolved US tariff risks—and tepid domestic consumption pose serious execution risks. Without sharper prioritisation and institutio

Food Prices Lifted South Africa Inflation to 3.0% YoY in June

July 23, 2025 12:36 PM UTC

Bottom Line: Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) announced on July 23 that annual inflation rose to 3.0% YoY in June from 2.8% in May as food prices reached a 15-month high coupled with elevated restaurant and health services prices. The inflation is still within South African Reserve Bank’s (SARB)

Deal or Dilemma: What the US–Indonesia Trade Pact Really Means

July 17, 2025 5:46 AM UTC

The US–Indonesia trade deal marks a significant geopolitical and economic pivot, reducing a threatened 32% tariff to 19% in exchange for USD 34bn in US imports and open market access. While the agreement offers Jakarta temporary relief, it locks the country into a transactional trade model amid ri

CBR will Likely Cut its Key Rate to 19% on July 25

July 16, 2025 4:32 PM UTC

Bottom Line: After Central Bank of Russia (CBR) reduced its key interest rate by 100 basis points to 20% on June 6, citing continued easing in inflationary pressures, including core inflation, we foresee that the rate will be further reduced to 19% on July 25 taking into account that inflation slowe

Tax Shortfalls and Slow Growth Complicate Indonesia’s Budget Plans

July 15, 2025 3:05 PM UTC

Indonesia’s fiscal position is coming under renewed strain, as weaker-than-expected revenue collection forces the government to widen its 2025 budget deficit to 2.78% of GDP—above initial targets but still below the legal threshold. Delays in VAT implementation, falling commodity prices, and mod

Turkiye MPC Preview: CBRT will Likely Restart its Easing Cycle on July 24

July 15, 2025 12:09 PM UTC

Bottom Line: After Central Bank of Turkiye (CBRT) held its key policy rate stable at 46% on June 19, we believe CBRT will likely reduce the policy rate by 150-250 bps during the MPC meeting scheduled for July 24 considering the deceleration trend in inflation in June beat forecasts and reinforced ex

Deceleration in Inflation, Albeit Gradual, Continued in June: 9.4% YoY

July 11, 2025 4:48 PM UTC

Bottom Line: According to Russian Federal Statistics Service (Rosstat) data, inflation stood at 9.4% YoY in June after hitting 9.9% YoY in May, partly due to favorable base impacts, recent RUB strengthening and falling oil prices. We think the recent tariffs hike for electricity, gas, heating and w