Succession and Strongmen Leaders

 Figure 1: Key Leaders Age Source: Continuum Economics 

President Xi and Putin were picked up discussing the prospect of living to 150 years old helped by organ transplants and advanced medical procedures on the sidelines of China's Victory Day parade in Beijing.  Though they see themselves as ruling for many years to come, doctors would warn that the risk of death in any one year increases progressively for a man in his 70’s or 80’s.  A tail or modest risk exists in any one year of an unexpected death of one of the strongmen in Figure 1, which raises the question of succession and continuity of policies.  Internal overthrow is also possible in Russia and China, though very unlikely. A couple of points are worth making:

•    Putin.  Putin has no clear successors, given his grip on power and suppression of strong alternatives.  In the event of Putin death, PM  Mikhail Mishustin would take over as interim president and is seen as a potential replacement.  Others see Sergei Sobyanin Moscow Mayor and  Sergei Kiriyenko who is Putin’s first deputy chief of staff, while Dmitry Medvedev is not seen to be a strong contender having been subservient to Putin. Whoever is the replacement, they would likely be willing to compromise more on a peace deal with Ukraine and the U.S.  The primary multi-year goal would be to build a new regime domestically, strengthen domestic economy, and rebuild military strength depleted by the Ukraine war.

•    Xi.  Xi has also suppressed potential strong candidates to eventually succeed him and like Putin wants to keep on ruling, and will go for a 4th term in 2028.  China experts note that Xi has no clear successors and does not appear to have an interest in naming one – as it would risk undermining his authority and eventually safety.  Xi’s desire for policy continuity could eventually see one emerging, but China watchers point out that Mao successor Hua Guofeng lasted only 2 years and was not a strong leader.  In the scenario of Xi’s death, some initial infighting could be seen in the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), before a replacement is announced. While they would likely maintain the broad thrust of shifting to high tech and common prosperity, any new leaders would likely pull back from potentially aggressive decision on Taiwan. 

•    Erdogan.  Erdogan 3rd term as president ends in May 2028.  Legally, he is supposed to step down. However, some reports have suggested he wants to run for a 4th term, which would require a change to the constitution.  He is reported to be healthy. It is also not clear who could replace him in 2028 and AK party could risk losing the presidential election.  In the scenario of an early death, it is not clear who would be his successor, though some have talked of his son-in-law Selçuk Bayraktar (CEO of Baykar, which produces well-known Turkish UAVs, UCAVs and drones).   

•    Trump and Modi.  In the scenario of President Trump death, Vice President JD Vance takes over before the November 2028 presidential election. While Vance would likely sustain the broad thrust of Trump’s policies, he would likely be cautious in his early years to avoid mistakes hoping to win the following U.S. presidential race.  PM Modi also has no successor that he has chosen, as it is too far away from the 2029 election when some expect Modi to retire. Amit Shah (minister for home affairs) and Nitin Gadkari (minister of roadways and transport) are seen to be two potential candidates.  However, it is not clear whether they or others would have Modi’s magic to help the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) coalition win a 2029 election.