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September 25, 2024
Asia/Pacific (ex-China/Japan) Outlook: Shifting Gears for Growth
September 25, 2024 7:57 AM UTC
Emerging Asian economies are poised to remain the fastest growing globally. India and Southeast Asia will drive regional resilience amid China’s cooling growth engine in 2025. For India, while the external environment remains challenging due to weaker global demand and geopolitical tensions, domes
August 14, 2024
July 10, 2024
June 21, 2024
Asia/Pacific (ex-China/Japan) Outlook: Growth Momentum but Delayed Rate Cuts
June 21, 2024 9:45 AM UTC
• Economic activity in emerging Asian economies is forecast to remain strong. Despite several challenges, including a tight oil market, constrained liquidity conditions, and delayed rate cuts, the region's economic activity is expected to show resilience. Other potential obstacles include u
May 22, 2024
April 10, 2024
March 22, 2024
Asia/Pacific (ex-China/Japan) Outlook: Election Spending to Drive Growth
March 22, 2024 12:18 PM UTC
· In 2024, growth trends across emerging Asia will exhibit a mixed pattern. Encouragingly, there will be a resurgence in demand for global electronics following a period of stagnation in 2022‑23, which will provide a boost to regional trade. Moreover, the initiation of monetary policy
February 28, 2024
December 18, 2023
Asia/Pacific (ex-China/Japan) Outlook: Going Big, Going Strong
December 18, 2023 10:05 AM UTC
Our Forecasts
Source: Continuum Economics
Risks to Our Views
Source: Continuum Economics
Regional Dynamics: Mixed Prospects in 2024
In H1-2024, much like in 2023, the emerging economies in Asia will continue to outperform other emerging markets and display notable resilience in comparison to develope
November 29, 2023
RBNZ Review: OCR Revised Higher
November 29, 2023 6:01 AM UTC
RBNZ Kept Rates Unchanged but revise OCR forecast higher
OCR forecast are revised higher. Some key takeaways:
While the upward revision is minimal, not even a full 25bps revision, it signals the market the RBNZ is ready to restart its tightening when it is necessary to tackle inflation. Just looking a
November 16, 2023
Long-term Forecasts to download in Excel
November 16, 2023 10:38 AM UTC
We present our annual forecasts that go out to 2030 for GDP Growth, Inflation, and Monetary Policy and to 2028 for Exchange Rates. The file contains five sheets: a Country Coverage summary page and a sheet for each of the four indicators.
The forecasts are consistent with the Long-term Forecasts: DM
Long-term Forecasts: DM Policy Easing
November 16, 2023 8:44 AM UTC
The Continuum Economics research team has spent much of the last month researching, reviewing and debating our long-term GDP, CPI inflation and central bank policy rate forecasts for 2025-30. Alongside a reassessment of long-term factors such as productivity and demographics, we have examined the la
October 04, 2023
September 27, 2023
Asia/Pacific (ex-China/Japan) Outlook: Public Spending to be Catalyst
September 27, 2023 2:11 PM UTC
Our Forecasts
Source: Continuum Economics
Risks to Our Views
Source: Datastream
Regional Dynamics: Governments to Prop-up Growth
As in 2022, emerging economies in Asia demonstrated their continued outperformance compared to other emerging markets and exhibited greater resilience compared to developed
June 21, 2023
Asia/Pacific (ex-China/Japan) Outlook: Defying Global Headwinds
June 21, 2023 11:01 AM UTC
Our Forecasts
Source: Continuum Economics
Risks to Our Views
Source: Datastream
Regional Dynamics: Capital Spending to Buoy Economies
As seen in 2022, emerging Asian economies will continue to outperform other emerging markets and prove to be more resilient than the developed economies. Asia is expecte
May 24, 2023
RBNZ Review: Peak Rates are Here
May 24, 2023 6:29 AM UTC
RBNZ Kept Its OCR Forecast and Revised 2023 Inflation Slightly Lower
The 25bp hike was widely expected so as the no change to major forecast. Some key takeaways:
OCR Projection Slightly Lower
Figure 1: May RBNZ OCR Projection
The OCR projections little changed from the February with a lower projection s
March 28, 2023
Asia/Pacific (ex-China/Japan) Outlook: Asian Powerhouses Lead Post War and Post Pandemic Growth
March 28, 2023 9:58 AM UTC
Our Forecasts
Source: Continuum Economics
Risks to Our Views
Source: Continuum Economics
Regional Dynamics: Worsening External Demand To Be A Drag
Slowing global trade and global economic growth will be drag on Asia’s growth story in 2023. Waning global demand for Asia’s key exports, especially for
February 22, 2023
In-Depth Research: Quick Roadmap Central Bank Forecast/Rationale - February 2023
February 22, 2023 10:44 AM UTC
M/T Quick Roadmap – Fundamental MMKT/CB Roadmap and Rationale
February 2023
US FEDERAL RESERVE
The February 1 December FOMC meeting saw the pace of tightening slowed to 25bps. Inflation has slowed, but January's CPI details still show broad based inflationary pressures at a pace well above the Fed's
RBNZ Review: Little changes from November
February 22, 2023 5:08 AM UTC
RBNZ Kept Its Inflation and OCR Forecast
The 50bp hike was widely expected so as the no change to major forecast. Some key takeaways:
OCR Projection Remains
Figure 1: November RBNZ OCR Projection
The OCR projections little changed from the November but minor curve smoothing around middle 2023. The termi