France’s Fiscal and Political Challenges Grow. Could Le Pen Fix It?

October 1, 2026 4:08 PM UTC

France’s 10-year borrowing costs have climbed above 4.9%, reaching their highest level since the 2008 global financial crisis (GFC) with the OAT/Bund spread widening to around 130bps, the highest level for 14 years. The combination of intense domestic political fragmentation, rising fiscal concern

France’s Fiscal and Political Challenges Grow. Could Le Pen Fix It?

October 1, 2026 4:08 PM UTC

France’s 10-year borrowing costs have climbed above 4.9%, reaching their highest level since the 2008 global financial crisis (GFC) with the OAT/Bund spread widening to around 130bps, the highest level for 14 years. The combination of intense domestic political fragmentation, rising fiscal concern

EZ HICP Review: Higher Inflation Ahead. How Will the ECB Respond?

September 29, 2026 4:27 PM UTC

Headline annual inflation is likely to increase again in September given the push from higher oil and gas prices. CPI numbers from member countries such as Spain already point to a likely strong jump in the EZ September while the increase in the European Commission Selling Prices indicator also back

EZ HICP Review: Higher Inflation Ahead. How Will the ECB Respond?

September 29, 2026 4:26 PM UTC

Headline annual inflation is likely to increase again in September given the push from higher oil and gas prices. CPI numbers from member countries such as Spain already point to a likely strong jump in the EZ September while the increase in the European Commission Selling Prices indicator also back

EZ PMIs Show Ongoing Growth Momentum in Q3

September 23, 2026 8:42 AM UTC

The S&P flash Eurozone PMI signalled a quickening in the pace of activity during September with the composite index rising to 53.1 from 52 before and boosted by rapid gains in the service sector and ongoing growth in the manufacturing sector. With September’s number now in hand the PMIs point to E

EZ PMIs Show Ongoing Growth Momentum in Q3

September 23, 2026 8:42 AM UTC

The S&P flash Eurozone PMI signalled a quickening in the pace of activity during September with the composite index rising to 53.1 from 52 before and boosted by rapid gains in the service sector and ongoing growth in the manufacturing sector. With September’s number now in hand the PMIs point to E

DM Rates Outlook: Long-term challenges, but selective short-term value

September 23, 2026 6:15 AM UTC

*Overweight gilts for 2027, focusing on intermediates. Large ‘policy uncertainty’ premium offers value on any less adverse Middle East scenario.
* Treasuries may offer tactical opportunity into weakness over Q4 2026-Q1 2027, with US10s projected back towards 4½% in respite. Longer term issues re

DM ex U.S.: Weathering Higher Energy Prices

September 22, 2026 1:22 PM UTC

·       EZ. We expect the Eurozone economy to remain resilient in coming quarters despite the ongoing energy shock. Household consumption growth should strengthen into 2027, supported by a recovery in real wage growth and by favourable employment increases. Increased defence and infrastructur

QT: BOE Slowdown But Not BOJ/ECB Yet

September 11, 2026 11:50 AM UTC

·       The BOE will likely slow the pace of QT to GBP50bln pa at the September 17 MPC meeting, but the BOJ/ECB have no current plans to slow QT.  The BOJ QT at 6% of GDP is huge and pushing up JGB yields and the BOJ could slow the pace over the winter into the spring once the next 25bps pol

ECB Hikes by 25bp to 2.5%, leaves the door open – but no great urgency

September 10, 2026 3:16 PM UTC

Today’s decision to increase the deposit rate by 25bp to 2.5% came as no surprise given the uptick in headline euro area inflation, the energy market backdrop and recent comments from ECB members. President Lagarde in the press confidence said that today’s increase was a “no brainer” and a ?

ECB Hikes by 25bp to 2.5%, leaves the door open – but no great urgency

September 10, 2026 3:07 PM UTC

Today’s decision to increase the deposit rate by 25bp to 2.5% came as no surprise given the uptick in headline euro area inflation, the energy market backdrop and recent comments from ECB members. President Lagarde in the press confidence said that today’s increase was a “no brainer” and a ?

ECB Preview after EZ CPI: A 25bps Hike

September 1, 2026 9:14 AM UTC

·       We feel that recent data or the continued hostilities between Iran and the U.S. do not argue for a U turn in the rate hike bias.  Thus we now confirm a forecast of a 25bps hike at the September 10 ECB meeting. Nevertheless, we would also expect the ECB to then cool market expectation

ECB Preview after EZ CPI: A 25bps Hike

September 1, 2026 9:12 AM UTC

·       We feel that recent data or the continued hostilities between Iran and the U.S. do not argue for a U turn in the rate hike bias.  Thus we now confirm a forecast of a 25bps hike at the September 10 ECB meeting. Nevertheless, we would also expect the ECB to then cool market expectation

Continuum Economics Calendar September 2026

August 28, 2026 11:00 AM UTC

Data and Events Calendar September 2026.

ECB Account: Hard Not to Read Between the Lines on Sep

August 27, 2026 1:01 PM UTC

* Some members would not have opposed raising rates at the last meeting
* While decisions remained data-dependent, another rate hike would likely be necessary unless the inflation outlook improved significantly
* Market participants appeared to have a good understanding of the ECB’s reaction functio

EZ PMI: Help From Manufacturing

August 21, 2026 9:23 AM UTC

·       The headlines look reasonable, with the highlight being the August EZ Manufacturing PMI at 52.8 versus consensus of 51.8 (a general pick-up; help in Germany from defence spending and also some AI related output as well).  This should keep reasonable expectations for Q3 GDP.  However

EZ PMI: Help From Manufacturing

August 21, 2026 9:23 AM UTC

·       The headlines look reasonable, with the highlight being the August EZ Manufacturing PMI at 52.8 versus consensus of 51.8 (a general pick-up; help in Germany from defence spending and also some AI related output as well).  This should keep reasonable expectations for Q3 GDP.  However

DM Central Banks Watching Stablecoins

August 20, 2026 10:55 AM UTC

·       Overall, DM central banks have a watching brief for stablecoins and the scale of growth in the next 5 years.  This is largely a USD centric issue, with stablecoins dominated by USD issuance. Central banks are watchful on whether it impacts access to low cost deposit for banks; guardi

Running on Empty - Low Rivers could add to Europe’s Supply Squeeze

August 19, 2026 9:30 AM UTC

* Drought is not only directly impacting water-dependent activity, fire damage, and food crops. It is also seeing extreme low river levels across the major Rhine–Danube/Central-European industrial corridor
* That can significantly impact freight flow, adding to costs and disrupting industrial produ

EZ CPI and ECB Rate Prospects

July 31, 2026 9:16 AM UTC

•    The July provisional CPI provided no major surprise with the headline 2.9% Yr/Yr figure boosted by energy prices, but core at 2.5% and CPI ex energy unchanged at 2.2% Yr/Yr. Combined with the latest negotiated wage settlement data, we see no signs of 2nd round effects. For the ECB the dat

September 25bps ECB Hike: 50% Probability?

July 23, 2026 1:42 PM UTC

·       Lagarde disclosed that some ECB board members considered a hike at today’s meeting and she noted that the consensus was to wait for incoming data before the September 10 meeting and then reassess. This clearly signals that the September meeting will seriously consider a 25bps hike,

ECB: September Hike 50% Probability?

July 23, 2026 1:41 PM UTC

·       Lagarde disclosed that some ECB board members considered a hike at today’s meeting and she noted that the consensus was to wait for incoming data before the September 10 meeting and then reassess. This clearly signals that the September meeting will seriously consider a 25bps hike,

ECB: Bark No Bite

July 17, 2026 7:05 AM UTC

·       The vigilance mantra means that the ECB will still have a broad caution against 2nd round effects and the risks that energy prices could push higher.  We feel that the June inflation data, plus the prospect that Iran/U.S. could call a new truce (here) will be enough to make most on t

EZ HICP Review: Absence Second-Round Effects Continues

July 1, 2026 1:42 PM UTC

Contrary to some thinking, EZ HICP inflation continues to behave, both absolutely and relatively – ie to what looks ever excessive ECB price thinking.  The question must be if and when the ECB chooses to note friendlier price and costs signals, rather than pander to the upside prices risks that o

EZ HICP Review: Absence Second-Round Effects Continues

July 1, 2026 10:41 AM UTC

Contrary to some thinking, EZ HICP inflation continues to behave, both absolutely and relatively – ie to what looks ever excessive ECB price thinking.  The question must be if and when the ECB chooses to note friendlier price and costs signals, rather than pander to the upside prices risks that o

Continuum Economics Calendar July 2026

June 30, 2026 11:00 AM UTC

Data and Events Calendar July 2026.

ECB Sin(a)tra Preview: Should the ECB Only Consider My Way?

June 26, 2026 1:29 PM UTC

The speed and manner in which the ECB adopted a hawkish stance is response to the Middle East conflict was no surprise; it has many precedents, some of which have led to policy errors which we think may be being repeated at this juncture.  Indeed, despite friendlier price and costs signals, the ECB

DM Rates Outlook: Tightening or Easing?

June 23, 2026 8:15 AM UTC

·       With the U.S./Iran interim agreement likely to hold and energy prices softening, our projected consumer slowdown will likely tilt the Fed not to hike in H2 2026 and to actually ease by 50bps in 2027, with 25bps moves in both Q2 and Q3.  With 2yr yields consistent with a hike, the tra

Eurozone Outlook: Has Inflation Peaked Already?

June 22, 2026 11:35 AM UTC

·       Under our only slightly updated view of no further fighting in the Middle East, we see oil and gas prices largely consolidating recent falls before falling afresh from mid-2027.The current situation is very different from that of 2022 and the Ukraine War in which the EZ lost access to

Germany/France/Italy and Spain: Growth and Inflation Outlooks

June 22, 2026 10:25 AM UTC

·       We have retained our 2026 GDP picture of 0.3% (Our Forecasts below) and actually pared back that for next year, with more and more signs that China is continuing to ship cheap products to Germany (lower energy prices post Iran war still help 2027).  For France, we have made a 0.3% do

ECB Review: If Not Insurance, Why the Hike?

June 11, 2026 2:27 PM UTC

The 25 bp official rate hike unveiled today was so well-flagged it is hard to suggest that it is consistent with a decision process on a meeting-by-meeting basis.  Similarly, the dominance of inflation upside risks, alongside another dose of optimistic real economy projections, is hardly proper dat

ECB Preview (Jun 11): Words Not Deeds the Focus

June 3, 2026 10:23 AM UTC

Aware of repeating ourselves (again), it is the case that the next ECB Council meeting will be more important for what is said than what is done.  In fact, a 25 bp official rate hike is virtually nailed on irrespective of how events in the Middle East may fare in coming days.  But the ECB comments

EZ HICP Review: Headline Rise Capped by Food & Energy, Services Jump Seasonal?

June 2, 2026 9:50 AM UTC

Even given what seem to be a series of reassuring aspects, the May flash HICP data is unlikely to have a material impact on ECB thinking.  As expected, and helped by German fuel subsides which kept the energy rise to around zero, headline HICP rose just 0.2 ppt to 3.2%, still a 32-mth high, but whe

ECB April 30 Account: Not Willing to Look Through Energy Shock?

May 28, 2026 12:40 PM UTC

The Account of the April 30 ECB meeting offers few added clues with comments from Council member since more directly suggesting a precautionary if not pre-emptive 25 bp rate hike on June 11.  As was case back then, markets are seeing two such moves by September and a strong probability of a third b

Continuum Economics Calendar June 2026

May 27, 2026 11:00 AM UTC

Data and Events Calendar June 2026.

EZ HICP Preview (Jun 2): Headline To Surge Again as Core Starts To Rise?

May 27, 2026 9:23 AM UTC

While somewhat important, the May flash HICP data is unlikely to have a material impact on ECB thinking, irrespective of whichever way it may surprise.  Most likely the data will show a further and still largely energy driven rise of 0.4 ppt, matching the April gain, but now to a 32-mth high of 3.4

Europe: Anti-Immigration Vs More Negative Demographics

May 22, 2026 8:12 AM UTC

 A significant demographic tremor is gaining speed and breadth - globally. Just as politics – certainly in the west - is framed around ending or at least reducing and controlling immigration, it seems that the populists at the helm of such thinking are not considering the ramifications of such a

Eurozone: PMI Slump Shows Energy Surge Constraining Activity, Not Just Hitting Costs

May 21, 2026 8:36 AM UTC

Once again surprising on the downside flash Eurozone Composite PMI fell to 47.5 in May from 48.8 in April and below the 50.0 no-change mark for the second successive month. The latest reading thereby signalled a further and steeper m/m reduction in business activity, was the sharpest since October 2

ECB: Not the Only Game in Town – But A Time for Hair Shirts?

May 19, 2026 11:22 AM UTC

When hearing ECB Council policy thinking one can get the impression that it sees only a direct link from changes in its policy rate to inflation rather than the latter succumbing to a range of factors, this being the transmission mechanism.  Most important of course is the economic damage that chan

Middle East Conflict: U.S. Helping Chinese Whispers?

May 15, 2026 11:26 AM UTC

 In hosting President Trump this week, China feels it is vying, if not achieving, parity with the U.S. as the world’s superpowers; from China’s perspective, it regards Russia similarly.  It does seem as if China’s goal at this summit was to get more effective flexibility in shaping Taiwan’

Eurozone: In Dire Straits?

May 8, 2026 10:55 AM UTC

Amid all the concern about the energy-induced surge in inflation resulting from the Middle East conflict, the impact on EZ real economy looks to be sizeable and growing.  High profile PMI numbers are flashing alarmingly, but the message from the April composite (at a 17-mth low) may actually be not

ECB Review: ECB Mixed Communications

April 30, 2026 2:01 PM UTC

·       Overall, the June and July meetings have live risks that the ECB could undertake a modest 25bps hike.  If a partial reopening of the Straits of Hormuz occurs then the ECB will likely keep hawkish, but not actually hike.  We feel that the ECB is overestimating natural gas prices, whi

Eurozone GDP & HICP Review: Fragile Resilience?

April 30, 2026 9:30 AM UTC

We continue to be critical of the ECB assertion (at least before the Iran War) that the EZ economy was in a ‘good place’.  This to us was too backward looking and amid some signs in both hard, soft and monetary data, that the economy going into the last quarter was soft and fragile.  Indeed, f

Continuum Economics Calendar May 2026

April 29, 2026 11:00 AM UTC

Data and Events Calendar May 2026.

Eurozone: Even Tighter Corporate Credit Standards Continues and More Loans Applications Rejected

April 28, 2026 8:51 AM UTC

Given the ever clearer fall-out from the conflict in the Gulf, it was hardly a surprise of even tighter credit standards (Figure 1), thereby merely accentuating trends in the four previous Bank Lending Surveys (BLS).  At least as far as firms and especially consumers seeking credit are concerned, t

ECB Preview (Apr 30): Real Economy Buckling Already!

April 23, 2026 12:21 PM UTC

We again expect no change from the ECB on Apr 30, but President Lagarde will probably have to admit in the Q&A that unlike last time the decision was not unanimous.  Overall, the communication will again suggest upside risks for inflation and downside risks for economic growth the extent and durati