Preview: Due August 15 - U.S. July Retail Sales - Trend losing momentum
We expect a 0.1% increase in July retail sales to follow two straight declines, with 0.1% decline ex autos and an unchanged outcome ex autos and gasoline. This would restore a slowing trend after June saw a correction from declines in April and May.
A 0.1% decline ex autos would be consistent with an estimate from the Chicago Fed’s advance retail trade summary. They estimated this would be a 0.3% decline in real terms.
Prices are likely getting some support from tariffs overall but prices are likely to have a negative impact on July gasoline sales.
While the overall picture may be subdued industry auto sales saw a significant bounce in July. The bounce in retail auto sales is however likely to be less impressive, with June retail auto sales having outperformed softer June data from the auto industry.
3 month/3 month data under our forecast and no revisions would be flat overall though with gains of 0.4% ex autos and 0.7% ex autos and gasoline. The overall and ex auto paces would be the slowest in over a year though the ex auto and gasoline pace was slightly slower in Q1.
