Preview: Due August 25 - U.S. July New Home Sales - Increased weakness
We expect a July new home sales level of 615k, which would be a 1.9% decline if June’s 0.6% increase to 627k is unrevised. The level would be the lowest since November 2023. We may be near a base but significant gains in new home sales are likely to require the start of Fed easing.
July’s NAHB homebuilders’ index saw a marginal increase but preceding declines in the index do not yet appear to be fully reflected in new home sales.
In July we expect upward corrections from June slippage in the North East and West to be outweighed by slippage in the Midwest and South after June increases. The South is the largest region.
We expect prices to see corrections higher on the month, the median by 2.0% and the average by 1.0% after respective June declines of 4.9% and 2.1%, but this would see yr/yr data weakening, the median to –4.5% from –2.9% and the average to -1.4% from a 1.1% increase.