Preview: Due August 21 - U.S. July Existing Home Sales - Maintaining a slowly declining trend
We expect July existing home sales to maintain a modestly negative trend with a 0.8% decline to 3.90m. which would be the lowest level since a matching September of 2024. Trends in the housing sector are modestly negative and probably need Fed easing to find a base.
Survey evidence from the NAHB and MBA was little changed from June to July. Pending home sales, designed to predict existing home sales, were slightly weaker in June but above April’s level and January’s low. A large move in July existing home sales is not signaled.
We expect upward corrections in the Northeast and Midwest from sharp June declines but renewed weakness in the West after a rise in June. The South, which is the largest region, is likely to see a second straight modest decline.
Yr/yr sales will be only marginally negative at -2.0%. We expect the median price to see a seasonal decline of 2.0% on the month, seeing yr/yr growth falling to 1.2% from 2.0% in June, reaching its lowest since June 2023.