Published: 2025-07-31T14:25:04.000Z
Preview: Due August 5 - U.S. June Trade Balance - Deficit to fall on lower imports
Senior Economist , North America
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We expect a June trade deficit of $61.3bn, down from $71.5bn in May though similar to April’s, and confirming significantly lower deficits in Q2 after the pre-tariff inflated deficits seen in Q1.
The narrowing of the deficit will be due to a 3.5% fall in imports. Exports are likely to see a weak month with a fall of 0.6%. We expect goods exports to fall by 0.6%, and goods imports to fall by 4.1%, similar to respective falls of 0.6% and 4.2% in advance goods data.
We expect services to see falls of 0.7% in exports and 0.5% in imports. Our forecasts for goods and services are in line with the assumptions made with the Q2 GDP report.
