Preview: Due August 5 - U.S. July ISM Services - A modest improvement
We expect a July ISM services index of 51.5, up from 50.8 in June but a less impressive bounce than seen from the S and P services PMI, which increased to 55.2 in July from 52.9 in June.
Seasonal adjustments may restrain the ISM data in July. Regional Fed service sector surveys mostly remain subdued though did show some improvement from June.
We expect the ISM services detail to show business activity correcting lower to 53.0 from June’s improved 54.2, but new orders rising to 52.0 from 51.3 and employment rising to 49.5 from 47.2. Deliveries with a rise to 51.5 from 50.3 will complete the breakdown of the composite.
Prices paid do not contribute to the composite and here we expect an unchanged outcome of 67.5, maintaining a firmer picture seen since the introduction of tariffs.