North American Summary and Highlights 5 Sep

September 5, 2025 7:36 PM UTC

Overview - The USD was marginally lower ahead of the US employment report and extended losses on weak data. USD/CAD was an exception, with Canada’s employment report even weaker than the US one. 

U.S. Fed's Goolsbee - Undecided about September

September 5, 2025 6:12 PM UTC

Fed's Goolsbee is likely to decide on September after seeing August CPI data.

Preview: Due September 16 - U.S. August Industrial Production - Aggregate hours suggest a decline

September 5, 2025 5:10 PM UTC

We expect August industrial production to fall by 0.4% with a matching 0.4% decline in manufacturing. This will be the steepest decline overall since October 2024 and the first decline in manufacturing since a 0.5% drop in April.

Chart USD/CAD Update: Choppy trade - gains to remain limited

September 5, 2025 4:00 PM UTC

Cautious trade around 1.3840 has given way to a sharp break lower

FX Weekly Strategy: Sep 8th-12th

September 5, 2025 3:14 PM UTC

Focus on CPI but employment data aftermath may dominate early part of the week
USD downside favoured, particularly against the JPY
CAD may be even more vulnerable after very weak August employment
GBP could suffer if July GDP turns out negative

Preview: Due September 17 - U.S. August Housing Starts and Permits - Subdued with little direction

September 5, 2025 2:47 PM UTC

We expect August housing starts to fall by 6.2% to 1340k, correcting two straight gains of over 5.0%, while permits fall by a marginal 0.1% to 1360k. 

Chart EUR/JPY Update: Choppy trade - studies leaning lower

September 5, 2025 1:24 PM UTC

Still little change, as prices extend cautious trade beneath congestion resistance at 173.00

Chart USD/JPY Update: Lower in both USD- and JPY-driven trade

September 5, 2025 1:16 PM UTC

Cautious trade has given way to a sharp pullback in both USD- and JPY-driven trade

USD, CAD, JPY flows: US employment weak, Canadian weaker

September 5, 2025 12:52 PM UTC

USD lower after weaker employment data, Canadian data much weaker still 

Chart EUR/PLN Update: Studies under pressure

September 5, 2025 12:27 PM UTC

Little change, as prices extend consolidation around congestion support at 4.2500

Chart USD/ZAR Update: Back in range

September 5, 2025 11:52 AM UTC

The anticipated test of congestion resistance at 17.8000 has been pushed back

Chart EUR/CAD Update: Edging higher

September 5, 2025 10:36 AM UTC

Cautious trade around 1.6100 has given way to the anticipated break

Chart EUR/CHF Update: Limited tests higher

September 5, 2025 10:21 AM UTC

Little change, as prices extend cautious trade beneath congestion resistance at 0.9400

Europe Summary and Highlights 5 September

September 5, 2025 10:13 AM UTC

The USD was generally weaker through the European morning, losing 0.1-0.2% across the board.

Psychology for major markets Sep 5

September 5, 2025 10:11 AM UTC

Ranges continue to dominate ahead of US employment data, but JPY weak

This week's five highlights

September 5, 2025 10:00 AM UTC

Trump Keep the Ball Rolling
U.S. August Non-Farm Payrolls Similar to July's
This Week's Fed Speakers
More consolidation for DXY
EZ HICP Headline Inflation Edges Higher

FX Daily Strategy: N America, Sep 5th

September 5, 2025 9:05 AM UTC

US August employment data likely to be similar to July
USD downside risks on weak data likely greater than upside risks on strong data
Japanese wage data could impact BoJ expectations
UK delayed retail sales data needs to beat consensus to sustain better trend

JPY flows: JPY supported by strong wage data

September 5, 2025 8:27 AM UTC

JPY upside potential remains, downside risks decline as wages rise

Chart USD/CHF Update: Balanced in range

September 5, 2025 8:11 AM UTC

Little change, as prices extend consolidation around resistance at 0.8050

Chart USD Index DXY Update: Leaning lower in range

September 5, 2025 7:55 AM UTC

Little change, as prices extend consolidation within the 98.00-98.50 range

Chart GBP/JPY Update: Consolidating below 200.00/30 highs

September 5, 2025 7:46 AM UTC

Little change, as prices extend consolidation below resistance at the 200.00/30, July/August highs

Chart EUR/GBP Update: Further consolidation

September 5, 2025 7:40 AM UTC

Little change, as prices extend cautious trade around 0.8675

Chart EUR/USD Update: Range extension - studies under pressure

September 5, 2025 7:32 AM UTC

Little change, as prices extend cautious trade within the 1.1600-1.1700 range

Chart GBP/USD Update: Consolidating - studies under pressure

September 5, 2025 7:25 AM UTC

Anticipated tests lower have not been seen

Chart EUR/AUD Update: Consolidating test of 1.7810/00 support

September 5, 2025 7:11 AM UTC

Turned up from test of the 1.7810/00 support as prices consolidate losses from the 1.8155 high of August

Chartbook: Chart JP Nikkei Update: Extend to record high

September 5, 2025 6:56 AM UTC

Rally above the 40000 level at the start of Q3 saw follow-through to break the July high at 42426 to reach fresh all-time high just below the 44000 level

Chart AUD/NZD Update: Extending gains to retest 1.1150/80

September 5, 2025 6:41 AM UTC

Break of the 1.1100 level has seen gains to retest thee July 2024 high at 1.1150

GBP flows: GBP slightly firmer after retail sales

September 5, 2025 6:35 AM UTC

UK retail sales much as expected after significant revisions, GBP a little firmer

Chart USD/INR Update: Remains supported above 87.8850

September 5, 2025 4:59 AM UTC

Little change, as prices holds steady in consolidation following bounce from 87.8850 support

Asia Summary and Highlights 5 Sep

September 5, 2025 4:55 AM UTC

July labor cash earnings +4.1% y/y 

AUD/USD flows: Risk mood broadly positive

September 5, 2025 4:42 AM UTC

Major equity indexes in the green

FX Daily Strategy: Europe, Sep 5th

September 5, 2025 4:16 AM UTC

US August employment data likely to be similar to July
USD downside risks on weak data likely greater than upside risks on strong data
Japanese wage data could impact BoJ expectations
UK delayed retail sales data needs to beat consensus to sustain better trend

Chart USD/CNH Update: Leaning lower from the 7.1440/7.1500 resistance

September 5, 2025 3:07 AM UTC

Corrective bounce from the 7.1200 low has seen gains checked at 7.1440/7.1500, July lows

Chart USD/THB Update: Under pressure

September 5, 2025 2:52 AM UTC

Leaning lower to pressure support at the 32.26/24 lows as prices extend pullback from the 32.68/32.88, August highs

Chart USD/KRW Update: Drifting below 1400.00 level

September 5, 2025 2:40 AM UTC

Little change, as prices drift within a narrow range below the 1400.00 level

Chart USD/SGD Update: Consolidating, room for higher later

September 5, 2025 2:32 AM UTC

Little change, as prices extend consolidation below the 1.2900 resistance

USD/JPY flows: Strong Wage

September 5, 2025 1:47 AM UTC

Trump warned of 100% tariffs on foreign chip imports unless firms build in U.S.
July labor cash earnings +4.1% y/y 

Chart GBP/USD Update: Leaning lower from 1.3550 resistance

September 5, 2025 1:44 AM UTC

Turned up to consolidate above the 1.3400 level after failing to sustain break of the 1.3370 support

Chart EUR/USD Update: Extend consolidation above 1.1600

September 5, 2025 1:34 AM UTC

Little change, as prices extend consolidation above the 1.1600 level following pullback from the 1.1700/42 resistance

Chart EUR/JPY Update: Extend consolidation below 173.00

September 5, 2025 1:09 AM UTC

Still limited above the 173.00 level but pressure remains on the upside

Chart USD/JPY Update: Consolidating below 148.65/149.00 resistance

September 5, 2025 12:58 AM UTC

Settled back from test of strong resistance at the 148.65/149.00 area

Chart NZD/USD Update: Under pressure

September 5, 2025 12:37 AM UTC

Under pressure as prices extend pullback from Monday's swing high at .5915 to reach the .5830 support