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August 18, 2025
Preview: Due August 19 - U.S. July Housing Starts and Permits - Negative underlying trend
August 18, 2025 2:05 PM UTC
We expect July housing starts to fall by 4.6% to 1260k, reversing a similar rise in June which corrected a 9.7% decline in May. We expect permits to confirm a slipping trend with a fourth straight decline, by 3.1% to 1350k. A soft trend is likely to persist unless Fed easing commences.
Preview: Due August 19 - Canada July CPI - Lower on gasoline but core rates to remain firm
August 18, 2025 1:46 PM UTC
We expect July Canadian CPI to fall to 1.6% yr/yr from 1.9%, taking the pace to the slowest since September 2024, though April’s abolition of the carbon tariff is still depressing yr/yr growth by around 0.6%. July’s dip will be largely on gasoline and we expect little change in the BoC’s core
Trump-Putin Summit: No Ceasefire Agreement, Possible Concessions Discussed
August 18, 2025 12:29 PM UTC
Bottom Line: U.S. President Trump and Russian President Putin met in Alaska on August 15 to discuss the fate of war in Ukraine. The meeting lasted three hours, but did not yield an immediate ceasefire agreement as we expected. After the meeting, Trump and Putin both signaled what could happen next i
U.S. Strategic Fiscal Comparisons
August 18, 2025 9:05 AM UTC
The U.S. short average term to maturity is a structural fiscal weakness if higher rates lift U.S. government interest costs close to the nominal GDP trend. Hence, Trump’s pressure for fiscal dominance of the Fed to deliver lower policy rates and reduce U.S. government interest rate costs. Howeve
Asia Open - Overnight Highlights
August 18, 2025 12:00 AM UTC
EMERGING ASIA
EM currencies are trading mostly weaker against the greenback as U.S. data points towards mixed result. The biggest losers are IDR 0.31%, followed by PHP 0.29%, THB 0.18%, CNH 0.09%, TWD 0.08%, CNY 0.04% and MYR 0.03%; while the largest winners are SGD by 0.13% and HKD 0.12%.
USD/CNH is
August 17, 2025
August 15, 2025
Preview: Due August 29 - U.S. July Advance Goods Trade Balance - Deficit to rise as imports from China rebound
August 15, 2025 3:27 PM UTC
We expect an advance July goods trade deficit of $99.8bn, up from $84.9bn in June but still closer to the Q2 average of $89.0bn than the Q1 average of $155.0bn when imports surged ahead of tariffs.