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December 04, 2025
China/Japan: The Australia Playbook or Grey Warfare
December 4, 2025 10:05 AM UTC
China will likely escalate pressure on Japan to back down over it less pacifist stance on self-defense, as it wants to drive a wedge between Japan and the U.S. One option is to repeat the 2020 copybook when China banned coal imports from Australia for 3 years. A 2nd alternative is grey warfare a
UK GDP Preview (Dec 12): Underlying Economy Fragile and Listless
December 4, 2025 9:55 AM UTC
As we have underlined, GDP has hardly moved since March and this is un likely to change with the October GDP release. Indeed, it has fallen in two of the last three months (Figure 1), albeit where some recovery should be in store for the current quarter as the September numbers were hit (temporari
SNB Preview (Dec 11). Still Staying at Zero – And For Some Time?
December 4, 2025 8:10 AM UTC
Along with just about everyone, we see unchanged SNB policy when it gives it next quarterly assessment on Dec 11. It is likely to retain what were modest growth outlook for this and next year and still see inflation nearer zero than the 2% upper target (figure 1). But this will be enough to just
December 03, 2025
U.S. November ISM Services - Rise led by delivery times
December 3, 2025 3:17 PM UTC
November’s ISM services index has marginally extended an October bounce, and at 52.6 from 52.4 is at its highest since February. Details are less impressive but the latest two months suggest the economy is still expanding, if moderately, and worries over tariffs, which may have contributed to a di
U.S. September Industrial Production - Trend marginally positive
December 3, 2025 2:34 PM UTC
September industrial production was in line with expectations with a marginal rise of 0.1%, with manufacturing unchanged. Mining was also unchanged with the rise in industrial production coming from a 1.1% upward correction from a 3.0% August decline in weather-sensitive utilities.
Turkiye’s Inflation Eased to 31.1% y/y in November, Hitting Below Expectations
December 3, 2025 1:40 PM UTC
Bottom line: According to Turkish Statistical Institute’s (TUIK) announcement on December 3, Turkiye’s inflation softened to 31.1% y/y in November backed by moderate unprocessed food prices. We continue to think upside-tilted inflation risks will likely limit the downward trend during the disin
U.S. November ADP Employment leaves trend looking fairly flat
December 3, 2025 1:38 PM UTC
ADP’s November estimate of private sector employment of -32k does not quite reverse a 47k increase in October (revised from 42k) but leaves trend looking fairly flat. The data is consistent with negative signals from weekly ADP employment data released a week ago and also the finding of the latest