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January 13, 2026
Preview: Due January 23 - U.S. Q3 Current Account - Correction from record pre-tariff deficit extending further
January 13, 2026 5:22 PM UTC
We expect a Q3 US current account deficit of $223bn, down from $251.3bn in Q2 and the narrowest since Q3 2023. As a proportion of GDP the deficit would be 2.9%, down from 3.3% in Q2 and the narrowest since Q1 2020. The correction from the record $439.8bn pre-tariff deficit in Q1 continues.
Taiwan: Worst Case Consequences
January 13, 2026 3:26 PM UTC
· The most likely option for China is to continue the air and naval grey zone warfare around Taiwan, combined with support for pro-China factions in Taiwan’s parliament to build pressure for reunification at some stage before 2049 (the 100th anniversary of the communist party). Wi
U.S. September and October New Home Sales - Trend showing signs of improvement
January 13, 2026 3:23 PM UTC
October new home sales at 737k are slightly above consensus and almost unchanged from September’s 738k, which was released for the first time with this October report. August however was revised down quite sharply from a surprisingly strong 800k to 711k, while June and July were also revised lower
Preview: Due January 14 - U.S. October and November PPI - Moderate gains, with risk of some volatility
January 13, 2026 2:49 PM UTC
October and November PPI will be released together on January 14. Unlike CPI which was not measured in October we will see data for both months, but the October PPI data will be collected on a delay and that adds to the risk of inaccuracy. We expect PPI to rise by 0.1% in October and 0.3% in Novembe
Preview: Due January 14 - U.S. November Retail Sales - A mostly subdued month, but December may be stronger
January 13, 2026 2:41 PM UTC
We expect a modest 0.3% increase in November retail sales, with positive contributions from autos and gasoline, Ex autos we expect a rise of 0.2% with ex auto and gasoline sales rising by only 0.1%.
U.S. December CPI - Moderate rebound from weak November leaves a subdued Q4
January 13, 2026 2:09 PM UTC
December’s CPI has come in slightly softer than expected, not showing a strong rebound from the weak 2-month change in November and thus leaving a subdued Q4. December CPI rise by 0.3% as expected but with the core rate weaker than expected at 0.2%, 0.24% before rounding. CPI ex food, energy and s
India CPI Review: December CPI Signals End of Disinflation Cycle
January 13, 2026 8:50 AM UTC
December’s CPI print reinforces that the inflation trough is behind us. While headline inflation remains below target, a sharp rebound in core driven by gold and jewellery could limit the RBI’s room for manoeuvre in early 2026. With a new CPI series incoming, the next few months will test the cr
JPY flows: New JPY lows as market continues to trade election expectations
January 13, 2026 7:56 AM UTC
The JPY has hit a new all time low against the EUR and new one year low against the USD as markets price in more fiscal easing. The rationale for the JPY decline is weak, but the momentum is strong. Intervention looks necessary to halt the decline.