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July 01, 2025

Chart EUR/CAD Update: Balanced at year highs - studies continue to rise
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July 1, 2025 10:19 AM UTC

Little change, as mixed intraday studies keep near-term sentiment cautious and extend consolidation beneath the 1.6090 current year high of 27 June

Europe Summary and Highlights 1 July
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July 1, 2025 10:14 AM UTC

The USD weakened across the board through the European morning, with the JPY and CHF the best performers, both gaining around 0.5%, while riskier currencies were generally up around 0.3%, although the NOK matched CHF and JPY gains, and the SEK also slightly outperformed the EUR.

Psychology for major markets Jul 01
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July 1, 2025 10:10 AM UTC

EUR testing highs, JPY weakness looks overdone, equities holding near highs

Chart EUR/CHF Update: Room for lower
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July 1, 2025 9:48 AM UTC

Choppy trade around 0.9350 has given way to the anticipated break

USD, JPY flows: JPY starting to come to the party, but...
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July 1, 2025 9:46 AM UTC

USD/JPY down fairly sharply today but JPY continues to lag well behind European currency strength. JPY still has the most potential for major long term gains

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EZ HICP and ECB Strategy Review: Headline Up to Target as Services Inflation Rises Back?
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July 1, 2025 9:32 AM UTC

Despite its updated its monetary policy strategy detailed yesterday, inflation – now at target – is very much a side issue for the ECB at present, albeit with oil prices possibly accentuating Council divides.  Admittedly, the flash June HICP rose a notch to 2.0% matching the -consensus, but up

FX Daily Strategy: N America, July 1st
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July 1, 2025 9:01 AM UTC

Data looks unlikely to move markets
USD and JPY remain under pressure
CHF strength looks puzzling and excessive
GBP could be vulnerable to more dovish BoE comments

Chart USD/CHF Update: Fresh year lows
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July 1, 2025 8:37 AM UTC

No change to the bearish tone

Chart USD Index DXY Update: Fresh year lows
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July 1, 2025 8:18 AM UTC

Anticipated losses have posted a fresh year low at 96.61

Chart EUR/GBP Update: Meeting resistance at the 0.8590 Fibonacci retracement
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July 1, 2025 8:00 AM UTC

Anticipated gains have reached the 0.8590 Fibonacci retracement

Chart EUR/USD Update: Balanced at fresh 2025 year high - studies rising
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July 1, 2025 7:43 AM UTC

Anticipated buying interest has posted a fresh 2025 year high just above congestion resistance at 1.1800

Chart AUD/NZD Update: Leaning lower in choppy trade from 1.0840 lower high
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July 1, 2025 7:34 AM UTC

Leaning lower in choppy trade from the 1.0840 bounce high of last week and trend line from the February YTD high

Chart GBP/USD Update: Within reach of current year highs
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July 1, 2025 7:32 AM UTC

The anticipated retest below 1.3700 has bounced from 1.3675~

USD, CHF flows: USD continues to weaken, CHF leading
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July 1, 2025 7:03 AM UTC

USD weakness continues with CHF making new 10 year highs

Chart GBP/JPY Update: Leaning lower from 198.80 high
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July 1, 2025 6:50 AM UTC

 Leaning lower from the 27 June current year high at 198.80 and pullback below the 198.00 level threatens deeper pullback to 197.00 congestion

Chart EUR/AUD Update: Range-bound below 1.8000
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July 1, 2025 6:36 AM UTC

Little change, as prices extend consolidation beneath the 1.8000 figure

Chart USD/INR Update: Consolidating, room for lower
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July 1, 2025 6:00 AM UTC

Steadied at the 85.4325 low as prices consolidate losses from the 86.8990 high

Asia Summary and Highlights 1 July
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July 1, 2025 5:18 AM UTC

The Q2 BoJ Tankan Index shows business resilience 

AUD/USD flows: Equities Broadly Positive
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July 1, 2025 4:13 AM UTC

Major equity indexes broadly positive

Chart USD/CNH Update: Under pressure, but stretched
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July 1, 2025 4:00 AM UTC

Pressure remains on the downside with losses reaching fresh low at the 7.1500 congestion

Chart USD/IDR Updates: Extending the April losses
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July 1, 2025 3:46 AM UTC

Under pressure as prices extend pullback from the 16495 high through the 16300 congestion to return focus to the 16159, May low

FX Daily Strategy: Europe, July 1st
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July 1, 2025 3:27 AM UTC

Data looks unlikely to move markets
USD and JPY remain under pressure
CHF strength looks puzzling and excessive
GBP could be vulnerable to more dovish BoE comments

Chart USD/THB Update: Consolidating above 32.31 low
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July 1, 2025 3:03 AM UTC

Little change, as prices extend consolidation above the 32.31 13 June YTD low

Chart USD/KRW Update: Consolidating above 1348.00, fresh year low
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July 1, 2025 2:55 AM UTC

Turned up from fresh low at 1348.00 as prices unwind the oversold intraday studies

Chart USD/SGD Update: Consolidating test of 1.2700 level
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July 1, 2025 2:42 AM UTC

Consolidating extension to fresh low at the 1.2700 level as prices unwind oversold intraday and daily studies

Chart GBP/USD Update: Consolidating, room for higher later
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July 1, 2025 2:17 AM UTC

Little change, as prices extend consolidation below 1.3770, current year high

USD/JPY flows: BoJ Tankan Report Better than Expected
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July 1, 2025 1:55 AM UTC

The Q2 BoJ Tankan Index shows business resilience 

Chart EUR/USD Update: Extending gains
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July 1, 2025 1:32 AM UTC

Pressure remains firmly on the upside with gains reaching fresh high at 1.1806

Chart EUR/JPY Update: Consolidating below fresh year high at 169.85
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July 1, 2025 1:13 AM UTC

Settling back from fresh year high at 169.85 as prices unwind overbought intraday studies

Chart USD/JPY Update: Extending losses
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July 1, 2025 12:55 AM UTC

Under pressure and break of the 144.00/143.75, congestion and low of last week, see prices extending losses from the 148.00 high

Chart NZD/USD Update: Consolidating test of .6100, scope for break
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July 1, 2025 12:40 AM UTC

Break of the .6087 high has seen gains to fresh high before settling into consolidation just beneath the .6100 level

Chart AUD/USD Update: Extending gains
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July 1, 2025 12:20 AM UTC

Consolidation at the .6550 resistance has given way to break to fresh year high at .6583

June 30, 2025

FX Daily Strategy: Asia, July 1st
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June 30, 2025 9:00 PM UTC

Data looks unlikely to move markets
USD and JPY remain under pressure
CHF strength looks puzzling and excessive
GBP could be vulnerable to more dovish BoE comments

North American Summary and Highlights 30 Jun
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June 30, 2025 7:50 PM UTC

Overview - The USD weakened in North America after being little changed in the European morning. 

Chart USD/MXN Update: Pressuring the 18.7750 Fibonacci retracement
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June 30, 2025 4:00 PM UTC

The fall from the 19.3260 weekly high of 23 June has reached critical support at the 18.7750 Fibonacci retracement

Chart USD/CAD Update: Leaning lower
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June 30, 2025 3:38 PM UTC

Cautious trade is giving way to a drift lower in both USD- and CAD-driven trade

FX Daily Strategy: APAC, July 1st
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June 30, 2025 3:08 PM UTC

Data looks unlikely to move markets
USD and JPY remain under pressure
CHF strength looks puzzling and excessive
GBP could be vulnerable to more dovish BoE comments

Preview: Due July 1 - U.S. June ISM Manufacturing - Modest improvement from a 6-month low
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June 30, 2025 2:48 PM UTC

We expect a June ISM manufacturing index of 49.0, which would be a marginal improvement from May’s 48.5, which was the weakest since November 2024. However the index would remain below the neutral 50 which was beaten in January and February for the first times since October 2022. 

Chart AUD/USD Update: Consolidating
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June 30, 2025 1:24 PM UTC

Still little change

Chart EUR/JPY Update: Balanced beneath fresh year highs - daily studies leaning lower
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June 30, 2025 1:19 PM UTC

Little change, as mixed intraday studies keep near-term sentiment cautious

Chart USD/JPY Update: Consolidating - daily studies under pressure
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June 30, 2025 1:08 PM UTC

Still little change

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German Data Review: Services Dip Further Despite Calendar Effects?
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June 30, 2025 12:30 PM UTC

Germany’s disinflation process continues, with the lower-than-expected June preliminary numbers refreshing and reinforcing this pattern, with a 0. Ppt drop to 2.0%, a 10-mth low (Figure 1)!  Previously but there have been signs that the downtrend was flattening out and this impression may have be

Chart EUR/PLN Update: Consolidating - studies under pressure
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June 30, 2025 11:46 AM UTC

Little change, as prices extend consolidation above congestion support at 4.2350

Chart USD/ZAR Update: Consolidating - studies under pressure
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June 30, 2025 11:18 AM UTC

Anticipated minor tests higher have not been seen, as negative intraday studies keep near-term sentiment under pressure

Chart EUR/CAD Update: Further consolidation - studies continue to rise
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June 30, 2025 10:54 AM UTC

Prices have posted a fresh 2025 year high around 1.6090

Chart EUR/CHF Update: Leaning lower
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June 30, 2025 10:16 AM UTC

Choppy trade is giving way to a drift lower

Europe Summary and Highlights 30 June
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June 30, 2025 10:03 AM UTC

EUR/USD was not much changed but USD/JPY was slightly higher, gaining 20 pips to 144.20, and USD/CHF slightly lower, falling 15 pips to 0.7970. 

Psychology for major markets Jun 30
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June 30, 2025 10:01 AM UTC

EUR testing highs, JPY weakness looks overdone, equities making new highs

FX Weekly Strategy: June 30th - July 4th
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June 30, 2025 8:45 AM UTC

US employment report the prime focus
Some risk of weaker numbers after higher claims figures from mid-May
General USD weakness remains hard to oppose
JPY could recover some ground on the crosses on weaker US data

Chart USD/CHF Update: Fresh year lows - prices under pressure
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June 30, 2025 8:33 AM UTC

The break back below 0.8000 has posted a fresh 2025 year low at 0.7957