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June 20, 2025

North American Summary and Highlights 20 Jun
Freemium Article

June 20, 2025 7:28 PM UTC

Overview - Friday saw a sharp rise in EUR/JPY as USD/JPY and EUR/USD both advanced.  

Preview: Due July 2 - U.S. June ADP Employment - A third straight sub-100k gain
Paying Article

June 20, 2025 5:38 PM UTC

We expect a rise of 50k in June’s ADP estimate for private sector employment growth. This would be stronger than May’s 37k but a third straight gain of significantly below 100k. ADP underperformed the non-farm payroll significantly in April and May. We expect a more modest underperformance in Ju

U.S. Fed's Barkin - Contrasts dovish earlier remarks from Waller
Paying Article

June 20, 2025 4:53 PM UTC

Fed's Barkin sees no rush to ease. Earlier Fed's Waller said the Fed could move as early as July.

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Preview: Due July 3 - U.S. June Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Increasing signs of slowing, but not a recession
Freemium Article

June 20, 2025 4:29 PM UTC

We expect a 75k increase in June’s non-farm payroll, significantly slower than May’s 139k though consistent with a slowdown in growth rather than an economy entering recession. We expect an in line with trend 0.3% increase in average hourly earnings and an uptick in unemployment to 4.3% after th

FX Weekly Strategy:Asia, June 16th-20th
Paying Article

June 20, 2025 3:55 PM UTC

Geopolitics Remain in the Spotlight
Slate of U.S. Data will otherwise dictate sentiment
And Likely See Choppy DXY
Followed By Canada CPI and GDP

Chart USD/CAD Update: Room for higher in CAD-driven trade
Freemium Article

June 20, 2025 3:23 PM UTC

Little change, as prices extend cautious trade above congestion support at 1.3700

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U.S. Outlook: Slowdown but not Recession, Cautious Fed Easing
Paying Article

June 20, 2025 2:14 PM UTC

•    Policy uncertainty remains high and final details of the tariffs will depend on the decisions of the courts as well as those of President Trump. However the magnitude of the tariffs is becoming easier to predict than the detail. Trump looks set to insist on a minimum average tariff of at

Chart AUD/USD Update: Consolidating
Paying Article

June 20, 2025 1:44 PM UTC

The anticipated test of congestion support at 0.6450 has given way to a bounce

Chart EUR/JPY Update: Fresh year highs
Paying Article

June 20, 2025 1:33 PM UTC

Cautious trade is giving way to further gains

Preview: Due June 23 - U.S. May Existing Home Sales - Remaining subdued
Paying Article

June 20, 2025 1:31 PM UTC

We expect May existing home sales to maintain a subdued picture with a decline of 1.3% to 3.95m. This would be the lowest pace since September 2024. Yr/yr data at -2.7% from -2.0% in April would also be the weakest since September 2024.

Preview: Due June 23 - U.S. June S&P PMIs - Corrections lower after May gains, but remaining positive
Paying Article

June 20, 2025 1:27 PM UTC

We expect June’s S and P PMIs to show modest corrections lower to correct May improvements, which contrasted weaker data from the ISM surveys in May. However the corrections, manufacturing to 51.0 from 52.0, and services to 53.0 from 53.7, should be moderate enough to suggest scope for gains in Ju

Chart USD/JPY Update: Price action remains positive
Paying Article

June 20, 2025 1:06 PM UTC

Little change, as prices extend cautious trade beneath resistance at 146.00

Canada April retail sales resilient but May seen much weaker
Freemium Article

June 20, 2025 1:04 PM UTC

Canadian retail sales saw a 0.3% increase in April, slightly less than the preliminary estimate of 0.5% made with March’s data. The preliminary estimate for May is for a 1.1% decline, which suggests US tariffs are starting to weaken the Canadian economy.

U.S. June Philly Fed - Details mostly weak
Paying Article

June 20, 2025 12:45 PM UTC

June’s Philly Fed manufacturing index of -4.0 is unchanged from May and weaker than expected. The details are generally soft, with 6-month expectations slowing to 18.3 from May’s very strong 47.2, though the 6-month view is still stronger than seen in March and April.

Chart USD/ZAR Update: Choppy in range - studies edging higher
Paying Article

June 20, 2025 11:40 AM UTC

Still little change, as prices extend choppy trade within 18.0000 - 18.1000

Chart EUR/CAD Update: Edging higher
Paying Article

June 20, 2025 10:58 AM UTC

Anticipated gains are approaching congestion resistance at 1.5800

Chart EUR/CHF Update: Extending consolidation
Paying Article

June 20, 2025 10:36 AM UTC

Little change, as prices extend consolidation around congestion resistance at 0.9400

Chartbook: Chart GBP/USD: Room for higher as long-term studies improve
Paying Article

June 20, 2025 10:16 AM UTC

Anticipated gains have reached resistance at the 1.3330 Fibonacci retracement and congestion around 1.3500

This week's five highlights
Freemium Article

June 20, 2025 10:00 AM UTC

Fed Hold Then Cautious Easing
Labour Market Softness Triggers a Dovish BoE Hold 
SNB Cut to Zero, But Negative Rates an Option
Norges Bank Coming (Very) Late to the Party
Riksbank Cuts and Flags Possible Further Move

FX Daily Strategy: N America, June 20th
Paying Article

June 20, 2025 9:55 AM UTC

Geopolitical concerns likely to dominate on Friday
Scope for a JPY recovery on the crosses
USD to hold firm even if Philly Fed weak, especially versus EUR and scandis

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Commodities Outlook: Policy Realignment
Paying Article

June 20, 2025 9:30 AM UTC

In Q2 2025, eight OPEC+ countries pledged a faster oil supply hike, motivated by market share losses, internal frictions, and geopolitical shifts. However, actual output has fallen short due to overproduction offsets, domestic consumption, and capacity limits. Further gradual increases are expected,

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Eurozone Outlook: In Tariff Limbo Land?
Paying Article

June 20, 2025 9:24 AM UTC

·       Amid what may still be tightening financial conditions and likely protracted trade uncertainty, we have pared back the EZ activity forecast for 2026. However, the picture this year appears to be slightly better but this is largely a distortion and we think that the economy has instead

Chart USD/CHF Update: Immediate losses to remain limited
Paying Article

June 20, 2025 8:34 AM UTC

Little change, as prices extend cautious trade beneath congestion resistance at 0.8200

Chartbook: Chart USD/JPY: Consolidating above 140.00, room for break later
Paying Article

June 20, 2025 8:29 AM UTC

Sharp losses from the January high has seen losses to retest the critical 140.00/139.60 support and 2024 year low

Chart USD Index DXY Update: Downside to remain limited
Paying Article

June 20, 2025 8:15 AM UTC

Cautious trade around resistance at 99.00 has given way to a pullback

Chart EUR/GBP Update: Balanced around 0.8547/50
Paying Article

June 20, 2025 8:03 AM UTC

Consolidation around resistance at 0.8547, (GBP/EUR 1.1700), and congestion around 0.8550 has given way to a test lower

Chart EUR/USD Update: Limited tests higher
Paying Article

June 20, 2025 7:46 AM UTC

Cautious trade has given way to a bounce

Chart EUR/AUD Update: Consolidate corrective gains from May low
Paying Article

June 20, 2025 7:30 AM UTC

Remains within the channel from the 1.7250 May low as prices extend choppy gains to retrace the April/May losses

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China Outlook: Reasonable but Unbalanced Growth Trade
Paying Article

June 20, 2025 7:30 AM UTC

•    China GDP growth remains reasonable though unbalanced.  Net exports will take a hit from the trade freeze in April/May, with the impact likely to ease in H2 with the trade truce.  We attach a 65% probability to a U.S./China reaching a new trade deal that reduces the minimum overall tari

Chart GBP/USD Update: Further gains to remain limited
Freemium Article

June 20, 2025 7:28 AM UTC

The test of strong support at congestion around 1.3400 and the 1.3415 weekly low of 29 May has given way to a bounce

Chart AUD/NZD Update: Extend corrective bounce from 1.0725
Paying Article

June 20, 2025 7:11 AM UTC

Break above 1.0800 level see prices extending bounce from the 1.0725 low to retrace losses from the 1.0910/30 resistance

Chartbook: Chart EUR/JPY: Extending gains from February low
Freemium Article

June 20, 2025 6:17 AM UTC

Clearance of the 164.00/165.00 area further extend the broad choppy gains from the 154.40, August 2024 year low, to reach 167.40, 61.8% Fibonacci level.

Asia Summary and Highlights 20 Jun
Paying Article

June 20, 2025 5:44 AM UTC

The broader risk sentiment is more positive
Trump may give Iran’s supreme leader one last chance to give up nuclear

Chart USD/CNH Update: Extend consolidation below 7.2000
Paying Article

June 20, 2025 5:42 AM UTC

 Settled back from test of the May trendline as prices extend consolidation below resistance at the 7.2000 congestion

Chart USD/INR Update: Lower in consolidation from 86.9000 level
Paying Article

June 20, 2025 5:31 AM UTC

Lower in range from the 86.9000 high as prices consolidate test of the upper wedge pattern

AUD/USD flows: Risk sentiment calmer on "two weeks"
Paying Article

June 20, 2025 5:30 AM UTC

The broader risk sentiment is more positive

FX Daily Strategy: Europe, June 19th
Paying Article

June 20, 2025 5:20 AM UTC

Geopolitical concerns likely to dominate on Friday
Scope for a JPY recovery on the crosses
GBP risks may be on the downside on retail sales
USD to hold firm even if Philly Fed weak, especially versus EUR and scandis

Chart USD/IDR Updates: Extend corrective bounce
Paying Article

June 20, 2025 3:14 AM UTC

Break above the 16300 resistance extend gains from the 16159 May low to reach resistance at the 16400 level

USD/JPY flows: On/off headlines continue
Paying Article

June 20, 2025 3:13 AM UTC

Trump may give Iran’s supreme leader one last chance to give up nuclear

Chart USD/THB Update: Room to extend corrective gains
Paying Article

June 20, 2025 3:06 AM UTC

Settled back from the 32.95 bounce high as prices consolidate strong gains from the 32.31 low of last week

Chart USD/KRW Update: Consolidating test of 1385.00, higher later
Paying Article

June 20, 2025 2:54 AM UTC

Settled back from test of the 1385.00 resistance as prices unwind overbought intraday studies

Chart USD/SGD Update: Consolidating below 1.2900, room for higher later
Paying Article

June 20, 2025 2:33 AM UTC

Met with selling pressure beneath the 1.2900 level as prices unwind overbought intraday studies 

Chart GBP/USD Update: Consolidating, room for lower later
Freemium Article

June 20, 2025 1:56 AM UTC

Limited on break of the 1.3400 level as prices unwind oveersold intraday studies and consolidate losses from the 1.3632 high

Chart EUR/USD Update: Consolidating, room for lower later
Paying Article

June 20, 2025 1:46 AM UTC

Turned up from the 1.1450 support as prices unwind oversold intraday studies

Chart EUR/JPY Update: Rebound eye retest of 167.60 high
Paying Article

June 20, 2025 1:22 AM UTC

Rebound from the 166.00 support to regain the 167.00 level return focus to the 167.60 high

Chart USD/JPY Update: Extending gains, room to 146.00/55 resistance
Paying Article

June 20, 2025 1:05 AM UTC

Edging higher above the 145.00 level to extend gains from the 142.79 low of last week

Chart NZD/USD Update: Consolidating at .6000 level
Paying Article

June 20, 2025 12:37 AM UTC

Turned up from the .5958 low to consolidate at the .6000 level as prices unwind oversold intraday studies

Chart AUD/USD Update: Leaning lower from .6550 resistance
Paying Article

June 20, 2025 12:18 AM UTC

Choppy trade has seen prices down to tag the .6450 support

Asia Open - Overnight Highlights
Paying Article

June 20, 2025 12:00 AM UTC

EMERGING ASIA
EM currencies are trading mostly weaker against the greenback as the USD gains on higher geopolitical tension between Iran and Israel. The largest losers are PHP 0.87%, followed by IDR 0.58%, KRW 0.51%, THB 0.44%, INR 0.30%, TWD 0.29%, MYR 0.21%, SGD 0.16%; while the biggest winner is C

June 19, 2025

FX Daily Strategy: Asia, June 19th
Paying Article

June 19, 2025 9:00 PM UTC

Geopolitical concerns likely to dominate on Friday
Scope for a JPY recovery on the crosses
GBP risks may be on the downside on retail sales
USD to hold firm even if Philly Fed weak, especially versus EUR and scandis