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October 01, 2026
Preview: Due October 19 - Canada September CPI - Steady with slightly slower BoC core rates
October 1, 2026 7:20 PM UTC
Despite upward pressure on energy, we expect September Canadian CPI to remain at 3.0% yr/yr for a third straight month, with marginal slowing in the Bank of Canada’s three core rates.
Preview: Due October 15 - U.S. September PPI - Inflationary pressure still significant
October 1, 2026 4:52 PM UTC
We expect September PPI to increase by 0.6% overall led by energy with 0.3% gains in both core rates, ex food and energy and ex food, energy and trade. This will suggest inflationary pressures remain elevated, with little sign of slowing at the producer level.
Preview: Due October 15 - U.S. September PPI - Inflationary pressure still significant
October 1, 2026 4:52 PM UTC
We expect September PPI to increase by 0.6% overall led by energy with 0.3% gains in both core rates, ex food and energy and ex food, energy and trade. This will suggest inflationary pressures remain elevated, with little sign of slowing at the producer level.
France’s Fiscal and Political Challenges Grow. Could Le Pen Fix It?
October 1, 2026 4:08 PM UTC
France’s 10-year borrowing costs have climbed above 4.9%, reaching their highest level since the 2008 global financial crisis (GFC) with the OAT/Bund spread widening to around 130bps, the highest level for 14 years. The combination of intense domestic political fragmentation, rising fiscal concern
France’s Fiscal and Political Challenges Grow. Could Le Pen Fix It?
October 1, 2026 4:08 PM UTC
France’s 10-year borrowing costs have climbed above 4.9%, reaching their highest level since the 2008 global financial crisis (GFC) with the OAT/Bund spread widening to around 130bps, the highest level for 14 years. The combination of intense domestic political fragmentation, rising fiscal concern
U.S. September ISM Manufacturing - Prices regaining momentum
October 1, 2026 2:26 PM UTC
September’s ISM manufacturing index of 54.5 from 54.6 is almost unchanged and still healthy if remaining off July’s 55.3 high. Prices paid are accelerating, rising to 77.9 after two months at 71.1, though not yet back at April’s high of 84.6.
Preview: Due October 2 - U.S. September Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Healthy if less strong than August
October 1, 2026 1:06 PM UTC
We expect September’s non-farm payroll to rise by 100k both overall and in the private sector, slower than in August but still implying a healthy trend. We expect a 4.1% unemployment rate for a third straight month but a slightly slower 0.2% rise in average hourly earnings and a stable workweek. O
US Initial Claims remain very low, Continued Claims have fallen significantly
October 1, 2026 12:44 PM UTC
Initial claims at 197k after two weeks at 198k remain exceptionally low (last week was revised from 197k). Continued claims give a similar message, falling by 11k to 1.701m, extending a recent significant slide to reach their lowest level since 2023.
EUR/USD, DXY flows: Dollar on the MOVE; shifting EUR/CHF mood
October 1, 2026 11:10 AM UTC
Surge in MOVE has been upping the volatility backdrop and helping drive the dollar firmer in the current over-extended action
Yield jump and higher vol tending to squeeze some popular carries recent days, USD/MXN especially
EUR/CHF runs out of gas against this backdrop, potentially correcting
Bond acti
Could blow out in French spreads, CDS, catch up with the euro? (EUR/GBP flows)
October 1, 2026 9:00 AM UTC
Recent action in OAT-bund spreads continues to extend, yet to fully come onto the FX mkt radar
EUR-GBP CDS spread widening the fastest since 2017
EUR/GBP could extend the resistance test failure to range lows if relative risk re-pricing starts to impact narrative, sentiment
EUR/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CHF flows - Yen dips after period end, pulls to expiries
October 1, 2026 6:59 AM UTC
USD/JPY bounces after period end weight, and key expiries again proving magnetic (158-158.25 today)
USD/CHF still trending to 0.84 resistance, CPI tame
ISM the main interest later today ahead of payrolls
September 30, 2026
Preview: Due October 12 - U.S. September Existing Home Sales - Marginal correction higher, but trend is falling
September 30, 2026 7:27 PM UTC
We see scope for a marginal upward correction in September existing home sales, by 0.5% to 4.00m after three straight declines. However rising mortgage rates and Fed tightening are likely to bring renewed slippage in Q4.
U.S. Trimmed Mean and Median PCE Price Indices slower in August
September 30, 2026 5:22 PM UTC
The Dallas Fed’s Trimmed Mean PCE price index at 1.92% annualized in August is similar to July’s and the third straight month below 2.0%. Yr/yr growth of 2.19% is down from 2.28% in both June and July and the slowest since August 2021.
Preview: Due October 6 - U.S. August Trade Balance - Advance goods data suggests widest post-tariff deficit
September 30, 2026 4:49 PM UTC
We expect an August trade deficit of $102.3bn, up sharply from $88.6bn in July and the widest deficit since the record $133.0bn seen in March 2025 ahead of the tariffs. August’s deficit will be larger than anything seen before Q1 2025.
Preview: Due October 1 - U.S. September ISM Manufacturing - Back to near the recent high
September 30, 2026 2:18 PM UTC
We September’s ISM manufacturing index to pick up to 55.5 from August’s 54.6, not quite reaching July’s 55.6 that was the highest since May 2022 but sustaining a clearly healthy picture.
U.S. GDP, Income, Spending and PCE Price revisions mostly encouraging, but Trade Deficit is rising
September 30, 2026 1:51 PM UTC
The final Q2 GDP report and August’s personal income and spending data are notable for historical revisions going back to 2021. The news in the revisions is generally encouraging, with upward revisions to GDP and real disposable income but downward revisions to PCE prices, led by non-market prices
U.S. GDP, Income, Spending and PCE Price revisions mostly encouraging, but Trade Deficit is rising
September 30, 2026 1:51 PM UTC
The final Q2 GDP report and August’s personal income and spending data are notable for historical revisions going back to 2021. The news in the revisions is generally encouraging, with upward revisions to GDP and real disposable income but downward revisions to PCE prices, led by non-market prices
EUR/USD, GBP/USD flows - PCE prices revised down as suspected; Germany confirmed higher
September 30, 2026 12:42 PM UTC
Mixed data, PCE price downward revisions, Germany upside, tending to stem the dollar
Cable seeing the greatest benefit, with short positioning and GDP data helping firm Nov hike expectations
U.S. September ADP Employment - Consistent with lower initial claims
September 30, 2026 12:30 PM UTC
September’s ADP estimate of private sector employment of 90k is on the firm side of expectations and a 3-month high for the ADP report. It leaves us comfortable with our 100k forecasts for both private sector and overall non-farm payrolls.