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February 17, 2026
Preview: Due February 18 - U.S. November and December Housing Starts and Permits - Moderately positive picture
February 17, 2026 3:10 PM UTC
Housing starts and permits data for both November and December are due on February 18. For starts we expect a rise of 8.3% in November to 1350k to follow a decline of 4.6% in October, with a more moderate 1.5% increase to 1370k in December. For permits we expect moderate gains of 0.6% in November, t
Preview: Due February 18 - U.S. January Industrial Production - Positive signals, but risks from weather
February 17, 2026 2:55 PM UTC
We expect a 0.5% increase in January industrial production, with ISM manufacturing and manufacturing payrolls suggesting stronger data, though there is some downside risk from bad weather late in the month.
Preview: Due February 18 - U.S. December Durable Goods Orders - Aircraft to slip, but ex transport trend is positive
February 17, 2026 2:45 PM UTC
We expect December durable goods orders to fall by 5.0% after a 5.3% increase in November, the reversal led by aircraft after a strong November increase. Ex transport we expect a 0.4% increase, matching the gain in November.
China: Boosting Consumption In March?
February 17, 2026 2:05 PM UTC
· China’s consumption medium term could be boosted by higher structural safety nets (social spending/health/pensions) and revisions to the Hukou system (shifting 200mln urban workers from lower rural to higher urban benefits). However, March NPC will likely see only further small to m
UK Labor Market: Job Losses Weighing on Wages
February 17, 2026 7:52 AM UTC
There are further signs that the labor market is haemorrhaging jobs both clearly and broadly with fresh and deep falls in the more authoritative measure of jobs covering payrolls. Indeed, private sector payrolls are still falling, down almost a full ppt in y/y terms and more steeply so (Figure 1).
February 16, 2026
Preview: Due February 17 - Canada January CPI - Little change from December but some underlying slowing
February 16, 2026 2:38 PM UTC
We expect January Canadian CPI to be unchanged at 2.4% yr/yr, with both December and January at 2.36% before rounding). We expect the Bank of Canada’s core rates to be on balance softer, with CPI-Trim and CPI-Common both slowing, but CPI-Median stabilizing after a sharper fall in December.
Warsh, AI and Lower Policy Rate?
February 16, 2026 10:55 AM UTC
· Warsh will find it tricky to convince FOMC members that AI is currently boosting productivity and acting as a disinflationary force. However, Warsh could also try to get the Fed to be more forward looking and less data dependent, which could add some proactivity into Fed debates. Fo
From Trade War to Trade Truce: Washington and Delhi Recalibrate
February 16, 2026 7:50 AM UTC
The US–India interim trade pact lowers tariffs after a bruising 2025 dispute, offering relief to Indian exporters while committing New Delhi to expanded market access for American goods. Washington is presenting the deal, including India’s stated intent to import up to USD 500bn in US energy and
India’s CPI Overhaul: Smoother Prints, Deeper Scrutiny
February 16, 2026 6:37 AM UTC
India’s January 2026 CPI rose to 2.75% yr/yr, marking the launch of a rebased 2024=100 index that better reflects modern consumption patterns. Food’s reduced weight is likely to dampen headline volatility, while services, housing and discretionary spending will exert greater influence going forw