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September 26, 2025
Canada July GDP - First increase in four months
September 26, 2025 1:30 PM UTC
July Canadian GDP followed three straight declines with a rise of 0.2%, stronger than the 0.1% preliminary estimate made with June’s data. The preliminary estimate for August is unchanged. If both August and September are unchanged Q3 GDP would be up by around 0.7% annualized after a decline in Q2
U.S. August Personal Income and Spending - Core PCE Prices maintaining trend, still above target
September 26, 2025 1:09 PM UTC
August personal income at 0.4% and spending at 0.6% are both a little stronger than expected while price indices are in line, 0.3% for overall PCE and 0.2% for the core rate, with the latter 0.227% before rounding. Each price index underperformed the August CPI counterpart by 0.1% (August PPI was so
War in Ukraine: No Light Yet at the End of the Tunnel
September 26, 2025 12:34 PM UTC
Bottom Line: Despite expectations from the 80th United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) held in New York were high, it did not yield a solution to the war in Ukraine, but an escalation between the U.S. and Russia. The claims by president Trump as he shifted his position on the war, saying for the f
Banxico Review: Slower Pace for 25bps Cuts
September 26, 2025 6:39 AM UTC
Banxico cut by 25bps to 7.5%. However, Banxico pushed up the near term inflation forecasts, which could mean that the November 6 meeting does not see a rate cut but rather Banxico waits until the December 18 meeting. This is our view and we look for 25bps to 7.25%. We then see two further 25bps
September 25, 2025
Preview: Due October 7 - U.S. August Trade Balance - Deficit to reverse most of a July increase
September 25, 2025 4:48 PM UTC
We expect an August trade deficit of $60.2bn, down from $78.3bn in July but slightly wider than June’s $59.1bn deficit that was the narrowest since March 2023. The deficit remains in a correction from elevated pre-tariff levels that brought a record high of $136.4bn in March.
Preview: Due September 26 - U.S. August Personal Income and Spending - Savings higher after GDP revisions
September 25, 2025 3:04 PM UTC
We expect August data to show 0.3% gains in both overall and core PCE prices, with personal income also up by 0.3% and personal spending slightly stronger at 0.4%. The data will incorporate historical revisions through Q2 seen with the GDP revisions.
U.S. August Existing Home Sales - Underlying picture near flat, base may be forming
September 25, 2025 2:03 PM UTC
August existing home sales are slightly stronger than expected but at 4.00m are down 0.2% from July, with the underlying picture looking fairly flat in recent months. Yr/yr growth is modest at 1.8%, and no longer negative as it was in February, March, April and May.
U.S. Initial Claims, GDP revisions, Durables and Trade all stronger than expected
September 25, 2025 1:17 PM UTC
The latest set of US data is clearly on the strong side of expectations, with Q2 GDP revised up significantly to 3.8% from 3.3%, August’s advance trade deficit falling to $85.5bn from $102.8bn, August durable goods orders rising by 2.9% with a 0.4% increase ex transport, and initial claims falling
SNB Review: Staying at Zero – For Some Time?
September 25, 2025 8:03 AM UTC
Very much as expected, both in deed and word, the SNB kept the policy rate at zero this month having cut by 25 bp back in June in June. Indeed, markets priced out what was previously seen as a good chance of rates turning negative, even against a backdrop of the punitive tariff scheme the Swiss econ