Central Bank of Russia
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October 25, 2024 12:31 PM UTC
Bottom Line: Central Bank of Russia (CBR) announced on October 25 that it increased its policy rate by 200 bps to 21% to tame the stubborn price pressures stemming from high military spending, tight labour market and fiscal policy igniting domestic demand. CBR said in a press release that “Over th
September 25, 2024 7:00 AM UTC
· In Turkiye, we still foresee upside risks emanating from buoyant domestic demand, the stickiness of services inflation, and adverse geopolitical impacts leading average inflation to stand at 58.8% and 35.3% in 2024 and 2025, respectively. We think Central Bank of Republic of Turkiye (CBRT
September 13, 2024 4:20 PM UTC
Bottom Line: As we predicted, Central Bank of Russia (CBR) announced on September 13 that it increased its policy rate by 100 bps to 19% to tame the stubborn price pressures stemming from high military spending, tight labour market and fiscal policy igniting domestic demand. CBR said in a press rele
July 26, 2024 2:16 PM UTC
Bottom Line: As we predicted, Central Bank of Russia (CBR) announced on July 26 that it increased its policy rate by 200 bps to 18% after four consecutive rate holds, and first time in 2024, to tame the stubborn price pressures stemming from high military spending, tight labour market and fiscal pol
June 7, 2024 12:57 PM UTC
Bottom Line: Central Bank of Russia (CBR) announced on June 7 that it decided to keep the policy rate unchanged at 16% for the fourth meeting in a row, but signalled that a rate hike is possible in the near term to tame the stubborn price pressures stemming from high military spending, tight labour
April 26, 2024 1:12 PM UTC
Bottom Line: As widely expected, Central Bank of Russia (CBR) announced on April 26 that it decided to keep the policy rate unchanged at 16% for the third meeting in a row. CBR made critical changes in its key rate and inflation forecasts as it lifted its 2024 inflation forecast to 4.3-4.8% from 4-4
March 25, 2024 2:00 PM UTC
· Unlike South Africa and Russia, Turkiye continued with tightening monetary policy in Q1 due to stubborn inflation, pressure on FX and reserves. Meanwhile, Russia and South Africa halted their tightening cycles as of 2024 and will likely start cutting interest rates in Q3 depending on how
March 22, 2024 10:55 AM UTC
Bottom Line: As we envisaged, Central Bank of Russia (CBR) announced on March 22 that it decided to keep the policy rate unchanged at 16% for the second meeting in a row, despite inflationary pressures remaining elevated, and currency weakening continued. We expect the CBR to hold the key rate stab
February 16, 2024 1:49 PM UTC
Bottom Line: As we predicted, Central Bank of Russia (CBR) announced on February 16 that it decided to keep the policy rate unchanged at 16% after lifting the rate in the last five consecutive MPC meetings, despite inflationary pressures and expectations remaining elevated, domestic demand still out
December 18, 2023 10:01 AM UTC
· The EMEA economies such as Russia and Turkiye will continue with restrictive monetary policy in H1 2024 due to the desire to control inflation. Meanwhile South Africa has likely halted its tightening cycle at 8.25% and will likely start cutting interest rates in Q2 2024 depending on how soon in
December 15, 2023 3:47 PM UTC
As we correctly predicted, Central Bank of Russia (CBR) announced on December 15 that it decided to hike the key rate by 100 bps to 16% as inflationary pressures elevated, government spending and domestic demand remained high, labour shortages especially in manufacturing continued, and households’
December 8, 2023 7:47 PM UTC
Bottom Line: Russian inflation continued its increasing pattern in November by hitting 7.48% YoY after surging by 6.7% YoY in October. According to the figures announced by Rosstat on December 8, the prices rose by 1.1% on a MoM basis, which marks the fastest MoM pace since April 2022, particularly
November 29, 2023 7:11 PM UTC
Bottom Line: The Russian economy grew by a strong 5% in October YoY, thanks to increased defense spending boosting industrial production, invigorated consumer activity triggered by domestic labor market, and growth of real money income of households. We foresee Russian GDP to grow by 1.7% in 2023 si
November 15, 2023 5:25 PM UTC
Bottom Line: According to Rosstat's announcement on November 15, the Russian economy has grown by a strong 5.5% in Q3 when compared to the same quarter of the last year, thanks to increased defense spending to boost industrial production, continued consumer demand and lending coupled with higher pen
November 10, 2023 5:06 PM UTC
Bottom Line: Russian inflation continued its increasing pattern in October by hitting 6.7% Yr/Yr. According to the figures announced by Rosstat on November 10, the prices rose by 0.8% on a MoM basis, which marks the second fastest MoM pace after September since April 2022, particularly due to high c
November 9, 2023 12:02 PM UTC
Bottom line: We expect 0.8-1.0% growth in Russia in the 2025-2030 period.We foresee huge economic and financial war related sanctions, shrinking population and labor force are going to be persistent headwinds for Russia GDP growth in the coming years.Additionally, increasing financial burden, and e