Foreign Exchange
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April 02, 2025
Preview: Due April 15 - Canada March CPI - Another acceleration as sales tax holiday ends
April 2, 2025 3:43 PM UTC
We expect March Canadian CPI to increase to increase to a 9-month high of 2.7% yr/yr from 2.6% in February. We also expect the Bank of Canada’s core rates to move higher, moving further above the 2.0% target.
Preview: Due April 16 - U.S. March Retail Sales - Strong end to a subdued quarter
April 2, 2025 2:29 PM UTC
We expect US retail sales to rise by 1.3%, led by autos, in what will be a strong end to a subdued quarter. Ex autos we expect a moderate rise of 0.5% but ex autos and gasoline the rise we expect sales to rise by 0.8%.
Preview: Due April 3 - U.S. February Trade Balance - Deficit down from January record but still very large
April 2, 2025 1:19 PM UTC
We expect a February trade deficit of $125.0bn, down from January’s record $131.4bn, but still above December’s $98.1bn, and the previous record deficit of $101.9bn seen in March 2022.
U.S. March ADP Employment - Return to trend after a weaker February
April 2, 2025 12:32 PM UTC
ADP’s March estimate of private sector employment growth of 155k is a return to trend after a below trend 84k (revised from 77k) in February, suggesting the labor market remains healthy. While ADP is far from a reliable guide to payrolls, we expect something similar from the March non-farm payroll
Asia Open - Overnight Highlights
April 2, 2025 12:10 AM UTC
EMERGING ASIA
EM currencies perform mostly weaker against the USD despite the global market braces for the impact of Trump's latest tariff. The only winner is KRW by 0.05%; while the largest losers are THB 0.53%, followed by CNH 0.2%, CNY 0.18%, SGD 0.11%, TWD 0.03% and HKD 0.01%.
USD/CNH is trading h
April 01, 2025
U.S. February Job Openings, March ISM Manufacturing - Worrying detail, though not yet a clear trend
April 1, 2025 2:33 PM UTC
February’s JOLTS report on labor turnover does not make positive reading, with falls in openings and quits but a rise in layoffs, though the volatility of the series calls for caution. March ISM manufacturing data is weaker, at 49.0 from 50.3, but prices but with prices paid up sharply to 69.4 fro
Preview: Due April 2 - U.S. March ADP Employment - February weakness may prove erratic
April 1, 2025 1:40 PM UTC
We expect a 125k increase in March’s ADP estimate for private sector employment growth, stronger than February’s weak 77k that significantly underperformed the non-farm payroll, but still below the pre-February trend. Initial claims suggest the labor market remains healthy.
Preview: Due April 10 - U.S. March CPI - Gasoline softer, but upside risk on core rate
April 1, 2025 1:00 PM UTC
We expect March to increase by a subdued 0.1% overall but by 0.3% ex food and energy, with the core rate likely to be on the firm side at 0.335% before rounding. This will follow core rates of 0.2% in February and 0.4% in January, both of which were rounded down.
March 31, 2025
Preview: Due April 11 - U.S. March PPI - Ex food and energy to bounce from a weak February
March 31, 2025 4:50 PM UTC
We expect March PPI to increase by a moderate 0.2% overall, restrained by dips in food and energy, but we expect a 0.4% bounce ex food and energy after a 0.1% dip in February. Ex food, energy and trade, we expect a rise of 0.3%.
Asia Open - Overnight Highlights
March 31, 2025 12:00 AM UTC
EMERGING ASIA
EM currencies perform individually against the USD despite the global market turmoil on tariff uncertainty fear. The biggest winners are INR by 0.38%, followed by PHP & TWD 0.01%; while the largest losers are KRW 0.3%, MYR 0.15%, SGD 0.13%, THB 0.11%, HKD 0.04% and CNH 0.03%.
USD/CNH is
March 30, 2025
March 28, 2025
U.S. March Final Michigan CSI - Even more pessimistic
March 28, 2025 2:16 PM UTC
March’s final Michigan CSI does not appear to have got any support from a slightly improved equities picture, with the overall index revised down to 57.0 from 57.9, and inflation expectations even higher, the 1-year view at 5.0% from 4.9% and the 5-10 year view at 4.1% from 3.9%.
Canada January GDP - Looking healthy ahead of the trade war
March 28, 2025 1:19 PM UTC
January Canadian GDP with a 0.4% increase was even stronger than the preliminary 0.3% estimate made with December’s report. Canada’s economy was clearly gaining momentum ahead of the emerging trade war. The preliminary estimate for February is unchanged. Negatives may follow as the trade war esc
U.S. February Core PCE Prices firm, Income outpaces Spending again
March 28, 2025 12:58 PM UTC
February’s core PCE price data at 0.4%, 0.365% before rounding) has come in considerably stronger than the 0.2% core CPI though the 2.8% yr/yr pace, with January revised up to 2.7% from 2.6%, is in line with a forecast from Fed’s Powell. Personal income was surprisingly strong with a 0.8% increa