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July 26, 2024
Preview: Due August 5 - U.S. July ISM Services - Unlikely to match strong S&P Services PMI
July 26, 2024 6:53 PM UTC
We expect July’s ISM services index to correct higher to 51.0 after slipping to 48.2, its lowest since the pandemic in May 2020. However the index will remain a lot weaker than the S and P services PMI, which in July saw a third straight rise to 56.0, to its highest since March 2022.
Preview: Due August 6 - U.S. June Trade Balance - Deficit to narrow on goods
July 26, 2024 3:40 PM UTC
We expect June’s trade deficit to slip to $73.4bn from $75.1bn, which would be the first narrowing since March. We expect exports to rise by 1.6% after a 0.7% May decline and imports to rise by 0.7% after falling by 0.3% in May.
U.S. June Personal Income and Spending - Core PCE Prices acceptably subdued, Income underperforming Spending
July 26, 2024 1:03 PM UTC
June’s personal income and spending report is largely old news, with Q2 totals seen in the GDP detail. In Q2 income surprised on the downside but spending and PCE prices surprised on the upside. For prices and spending the Q2 surprise came more in back month revisions than June data. For income th
FX Daily Strategy: N America, July 26th
July 26, 2024 8:57 AM UTC
FX market dominated by fluctuating risk sentiment
Much of the JPY gain reflects a big overshoot since early May, but JPY remains undervalued
Risk positive currencies may now be oversold, notably NOK
More neutral market Friday after Tokyo CPI comes in in line with consensus
FX Daily Strategy: Europe, July 26th
July 26, 2024 4:31 AM UTC
FX market dominated by fluctuating risk sentiment
Much of the JPY gain reflects a big overshoot since early May, but JPY remains undervalued
Risk positive currencies may now be oversold, notably NOK
Tokyo CPI may determine risk tone on Friday
Asia Open - Overnight Highlights
July 26, 2024 12:00 AM UTC
EMERGING ASIA
EM currencies perform individually against the USD as the greenback reversed its decline against major in the U.S. session after witnessing stronger GDP but its gain is limited outside of pairs that was oversold. CNH saw the largest gains of 0.36%, followed by MYR and CNY 0.23%, THB 0.0
July 25, 2024
Preview: Due July 26 - U.S. June Personal Income and Spending - Q2 data implies some surprises, but possibly in back month revisions
July 25, 2024 2:21 PM UTC
Ahead of the GDP report, we forecast a 0.1% increase in the June core PCE price index, with a 0.3% rise in personal income and a 0.2% rise in personal spending. If there are no revisions to April or May, we would see a core PCE price index rounded up to 0.3%, with personal income unchanged and spend
US Q2 GDP exceeds expectations, business investment the main upside suprise
July 25, 2024 1:06 PM UTC
Q2 GDP has come in significantly stronger than expected with a 2.8% increase while core PCE prices are also above consensus at 2.9%, which suggests despite yesterday’s call from former New York Fed President Dudley, a July Fed easing remains very unlikely.
July 24, 2024
Preview: Due August 1 - U.S. July ISM Manufacturing - A little firmer but still below neutral
July 24, 2024 6:09 PM UTC
We expect a July ISM manufacturing index of 49.0, slightly improved from 48.5 in June though still short of neutral. March’s 50.3 was the only reading to reach neutral since October 2022.
Preview: Due July 25 - U.S. June Durable Goods Orders - Trend still close to flat
July 24, 2024 5:05 PM UTC
We expect June durable orders to increase by a modest 0.3% overall, ex transport and ex defense, following May data in which overall orders rose by 0.1% but ex transport fell by 0.1% and ex defense fell by 0.2%. This would keep trend close to flat.
U.S. June New Home Sales - Sharp May drop marginally extended
July 24, 2024 2:16 PM UTC
June’s 617k total for new home sales is weaker than expected, and while down only a marginal 0.6% from May extends a sharp 14.9% May decline suggesting that housing demand has lost momentum, as other data has also suggested.
U.S. June Advance Goods Trade Deficit corrects lower as exports bounce
July 24, 2024 12:44 PM UTC
June’s advance goods US trade deficit of $96.8bn from $99.4 is narrower than expected and the first decline in the deficit since December. This and a 0.7% rise in advance retail inventories is supportive for Q2 GDP though the advance rise in wholesale inventories was subdued at 0.2%.
USD flows: USD downside risk on Dudley call for an immediate rate cut
July 24, 2024 11:35 AM UTC
Former NY Fed president Dudley has written an article calling for an immediate rate cut to avoid recession. His status suggests the market will need to price in a July cut as a more significant risk, puting downward pressure on the USD.