Foreign Exchange
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May 13, 2025
May 12, 2025
U.S. Budget Surplus rises in April, Tariffs only a modest proportion of that
May 12, 2025 6:36 PM UTC
April saw a strong budget surplus of $258,4bn, up from $208.5bn in April 2024, though the deficit in the fiscal year to date of $1048.7bn is up from $855.2bn in the seven months to April 2024, and the 12 month average has been above $2trillion for seven straight months. The deficit on FY 2024 was $1
Preview: Due May 22 - U.S. May S&P PMIs - Manufacturing to slip below neutral, Services to hold above
May 12, 2025 12:51 PM UTC
We expect May’s S and P PMIs to show slippage in manufacturing, to 49.5 from 50.2, but a correction higher on services, to 51.5 from 50.8. Underlying momentum in both series appears to be slowing, though this may fade if trade uncertainty is reduced.
Preview: Due May 13 - U.S. April CPI - Upside risk after a below trend March
May 12, 2025 12:02 PM UTC
We expect April CPI to increase by 0.3% overall and by 0.4% ex food and energy, the core rate reflecting a rebound from a below trend March as well as some impact from tariffs, though the extent of the tariff impact is highly uncertain. We see the core rate at 0.38% before rounding.
Europe Summary and Highlights 12 May
May 12, 2025 10:09 AM UTC
The USD gained ground across the board through the European morning, showing particular strength against the JPY and CHF as the US announced a trade deal with China with a reduction in reciprocal tariffs to 10% with other measures postponed for 90 days.
Asia Open - Overnight Highlights
May 12, 2025 12:00 AM UTC
EMERGING ASIA
Most EM currencies are trading individually against the greenback as Trump's comment towards weekend China-U.S. talk supported risk sentiment in the NA session. The largest loser is THB by 0.55%, followed by MYR 0.43%, IDR 0.12%, HKD 0.06% and TWD 0.04%; while the biggest winner is KRW
May 11, 2025
May 09, 2025
Preview: Due May 23 - U.S. April New Home Sales - Correction lower within a stable trend
May 9, 2025 4:47 PM UTC
We expect an April new home sales level of 695k, which would be a 4.0% decline if March’s surprisingly strong 7.4% increase to 724k is unrevised. March’s level was near the tip of the recent range but underlying trend continues to have little direction, suggesting a dip in April is likely.
Preview: Due May 22 - U.S. April Existing Home Sales - Pending home sales suggest a rise
May 9, 2025 3:47 PM UTC
We expect April existing home sales to rise by 4.5% to 4.20m, which would not fully erase a 5.9% decline seen in March. Sales would then be up 2.9% on a yr/yr basis, after two straight negatives.
Preview: Due May 20 - Canada April CPI - To fall, but only on removal of carbon tax
May 9, 2025 2:09 PM UTC
We expect April Canadian CPI to fall to 1.6% yr/yr from 2.3% with the fall entirely due to the April 1 removal of a carbon tax which the Bank of Canada estimates will reduce inflation by 0.7%, largely in gasoline. We expect the Bank of Canada’s core rates to be unchanged from March.
Canada April Employment - Private sector detail weak
May 9, 2025 12:48 PM UTC
Canada’s April employment gain is modest at 7.4k, and whole full time employment was up by 31.5k there was also a 37.1k increase in public administration. This makes the report on balance weak, particularly with unemployment rising to 6.9% from 6.7%.
This week's five highlights
May 9, 2025 10:00 AM UTC
India, Pakistan, and the New Escalation Paradigm
Tariff Man Posing for Another Strike
FOMC leaves rates unchanged, sees increased risk on both sides of mandate
BoE Divided by Scenarios
Norges Bank Policy Easing Continues to be Deferred
Riksbank Fresh Easing Hints Confirmed
Asia Open - Overnight Highlights
May 9, 2025 12:00 AM UTC
EMERGING ASIA
Most EM currencies are trading mostly weaker against the greenback as USD marches higher on the prospect of a potential trade deal. The largest loser is INR by 1.03%, followed by MYR 0.99%, KRW 0.91%, SGD 0.52%, PHP 0.38%, THB 0.37%, CNY 0.21%, CNH 0.2% and HKD 0.16%,; while the biggest
May 08, 2025
U.S. Initial Claims correct lower, Unit Labor Costs see a strong quarter
May 8, 2025 12:53 PM UTC
Initial claims at 227k from 241k have reversed most but not all of a spike last week blamed on temporary factors in New York, while continued claims have seen only a partial correction of a sharp preceding rise. A 5.7% increase in Q1 unit labor costs is stronger than expected but above trend.