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July 04, 2025
Asia Open - Overnight Highlights
July 4, 2025 12:00 AM UTC
EMERGING ASIA
EM currencies are trading individually against the greenback as the USD performs its up and down on stronger than expected NFP and subsequent positive risk mood. The largest winners are TWD 0.65%, followed by INR 0.46%, IDR 0.27%, PHP 0.24% and MYR 0.11%; while the biggest losers are KR
July 03, 2025
Preview: Due July 18 - U.S. June Housing Starts and Permits - Starts to correct higher, permits to continue falling
July 3, 2025 6:07 PM UTC
We expect June housing starts to rise by 3.5% to 1300k in a correction from a 9.8% May decline, but we expect permits to fall by 1.0% to 1380k, in what would be a third straight fall.
U.S. June ISM Services - Hit from tariffs shows signs of fading
July 3, 2025 2:25 PM UTC
June’s ISM services index of 50.8 from 49.9 has rebounded above neutral after falling to 49.9 in May but is still quite subdued. Detail shows bounces from weakness in May in business activity and new orders but slippage in employment and delivery times restrained the composite.
U.S. June Employment - Some signs of slowing activity, but lower unemployment suggests no urgency for Fed easing
July 3, 2025 1:09 PM UTC
June’s non-farm payroll is surprisingly strong overall with a rise of 147k, with 16k in net upward revisions, but private payrolls at 75k are weaker than expected, with 16k in net negative revisions. Unemployment unexpectedly fell to 4.1% from 4.2%, but average hourly earnings are weaker than expe
July 02, 2025
Preview: Due July 23 - U.S. June Existing Home Sales - Remaining subdued
July 2, 2025 6:41 PM UTC
We expect June existing home sales to slip by 0.5% to 4.01m, a third straight month of little change after a 0.8% rise in May and a 0.5% fall in April. The level will remain subdued but yr/yr growth will edge above zero to 2.0% for the first time since January as a June 2024 decline drops out.
Preview: Due July 17 - U.S. July Retail Sales - Mostly subdued
July 2, 2025 3:20 PM UTC
We expect a 0.1% increase in June retail sales to follow two straight declines, with a 0.3% incase ex autos that will reverse a 0.3% May decline. Ex autos and gasoline, we also expect a 0.3% increase, after a 0.1% May decline that followed a 0.1% April increase.
Preview: Due July 15 - Canada June CPI - Subdued on the month but little progress yr/yr
July 2, 2025 2:20 PM UTC
We expect June Canadian CPI to rise to 1.9% yr/yr after two straight months at 1.7%, the fall to 1.7% from 2.3% in March having been fully due to the abolition of the consumer carbon tax. We expect the Bank of Canada’s core rates to be on balance stable in June, and still above the 2.0% target.
Preview: Due July 3 - U.S. June ISM Services - Bouncing back above neutral
July 2, 2025 1:25 PM UTC
We expect a June ISM services index of 51.5, rebounding from May’s 49.9 which edged below the neutral 50 for the first time since June 2024. The recovery will reflect reduced concerns over tariffs and associated worries in the equity market.
Preview: Due July 3 - U.S. May Trade Balance - Bank to near pre-election levels
July 2, 2025 1:13 PM UTC
We expect May trade deficit to increase to $71.7bn from $61.6bn in April, which was the lowest deficit since September 2023, following a record $138.3bn in March. May’s deficit will be only a little below the pre-election trend and Q2’s deficit looks set to be less sharply below the pre-election
Preview: Due July 3 - U.S. June Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Increasing signs of slowing, but not a recession
July 2, 2025 1:01 PM UTC
We expect a 75k increase in June’s non-farm payroll, significantly slower than May’s 139k though consistent with a slowdown in growth rather than an economy entering recession. We expect an in line with trend 0.3% increase in average hourly earnings and an uptick in unemployment to 4.3% after th
U.S. June ADP Employment - Surprise decline surprisingly led by services
July 2, 2025 12:38 PM UTC
ADP’s June estimate of private sector employment shows the first decline since March 2023, contrasting positive job openings data yesterday but consistent with recent higher initial claims data. ADP surveys have recently been underperforming non-farm payrolls, for which it is not a reliable guide,
FX Daily Strategy: N America, July 2nd
July 2, 2025 8:58 AM UTC
USD may manage some recovery ahead of major data
GBP to remains under some downward pressure as BoE turns more dovish
CHF remains very expensive and hard to favour without significant geopolitical risk
AUD/CAD and NOK/SEK both have scope to gain
FX Daily Strategy: Europe, July 2nd
July 2, 2025 5:13 AM UTC
USD may manage some recovery ahead of major data
GBP to remains under some downward pressure as BoE turns more dovish
CHF remains very expensive and hard to favour without significant geopolitical risk
AUD/CAD and NOK/SEK both have scope to gain
Asia Open - Overnight Highlights
July 2, 2025 12:00 AM UTC
EMERGING ASIA
EM currencies are trading individually against the greenback as the USD chopped higher on Trump's policy uncertainty in early Asia before retracing all gains and dipped into negativity in later sessions. The largest winners are TWD 1.43%, followed by MYR 0.33%, INR & IDR 0.25% and THB 0
July 01, 2025
Preview: Due July 15 - U.S. June CPI - A little more from tariffs
July 1, 2025 6:42 PM UTC
We expect June CPI to increase by 0.3% overall and by 0.3% ex food and energy, with the overall pace close to 0.3% before rounding but the core rate rounded up from 0.27%. This would still be the strongest core rate since January and reflect tariffs starting to feed through, something expected by Fe
Preview: Due July 16 - U.S. June PPI - Stronger if still mostly subdued
July 1, 2025 6:14 PM UTC
We expect June PPI to rise by 0.3% overall, which would be the strongest increase since January, with gains of 0.2% in each of the core rates, ex food and energy and ex food, energy and trade. The core rates would be the strongest since March, though still quite subdued.
Senate adds more debt to the U.S. budget bill, and sends it back to the House
July 1, 2025 5:35 PM UTC
The Senate has passed its version of the “One Big Beautiful Bill” relying on the casting vote of Vice-President Vance. The Senate’s version adds more to the deficit than the version previously passed by the House, also passed by only one vote, meaning that a rapid approval of the Senate versio
Preview: Due July 2 - U.S. June ADP Employment - A third straight sub-100k gain
July 1, 2025 3:08 PM UTC
We expect a rise of 50k in June’s ADP estimate for private sector employment growth. This would be stronger than May’s 37k but a third straight gain of significantly below 100k. ADP underperformed the non-farm payroll significantly in April and May. We expect a more modest underperformance in Ju
U.S. May JOLTS report sees sharp rise in Job Openings, June ISM manufacturing rises but detail mixed
July 1, 2025 2:28 PM UTC
May’s JOLTS report shows a sharp and surprising rise in job openings, by 375k to 7.769m, the highest since November 2024, the gain following a 195k rise in April with the two gains fully erasing declines seen in February and March. June ISM manufacturing data is marginally improved, to 49.0 from 4
Europe Summary and Highlights 1 July
July 1, 2025 10:14 AM UTC
The USD weakened across the board through the European morning, with the JPY and CHF the best performers, both gaining around 0.5%, while riskier currencies were generally up around 0.3%, although the NOK matched CHF and JPY gains, and the SEK also slightly outperformed the EUR.
June 30, 2025
Preview: Due July 1 - U.S. June ISM Manufacturing - Modest improvement from a 6-month low
June 30, 2025 2:48 PM UTC
We expect a June ISM manufacturing index of 49.0, which would be a marginal improvement from May’s 48.5, which was the weakest since November 2024. However the index would remain below the neutral 50 which was beaten in January and February for the first times since October 2022.