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August 18, 2025
Asia Open - Overnight Highlights
August 18, 2025 12:00 AM UTC
EMERGING ASIA
EM currencies are trading mostly weaker against the greenback as U.S. data points towards mixed result. The biggest losers are IDR 0.31%, followed by PHP 0.29%, THB 0.18%, CNH 0.09%, TWD 0.08%, CNY 0.04% and MYR 0.03%; while the largest winners are SGD by 0.13% and HKD 0.12%.
USD/CNH is
August 17, 2025
August 15, 2025
Preview: Due August 29 - U.S. July Advance Goods Trade Balance - Deficit to rise as imports from China rebound
August 15, 2025 3:27 PM UTC
We expect an advance July goods trade deficit of $99.8bn, up from $84.9bn in June but still closer to the Q2 average of $89.0bn than the Q1 average of $155.0bn when imports surged ahead of tariffs.
Preview: Due August 28 - U.S. Preliminary (Second) Estimate Q2 GDP - Upward revision on retail and construction
August 15, 2025 2:59 PM UTC
We expect the second (preliminary) estimate of Q2 GDP to be revised up to 3.2% from the first (advance) estimate of 3.0%. The rise should be seen alongside a 0.5% decline in Q1 given recent extreme volatility in net exports.
Preview: Due August 29 - U.S. July Personal Income and Spending - Core PCE Prices to match Core CPI
August 15, 2025 2:34 PM UTC
We expect PCE price data to match the July CPI, with a 0.3% rise in the core rate and a 0.2% increase overall. We expect both personal income and spending to rise by 0.5%, ahead of prices.
U.S. August Preliminary Michigan CSI - Suggests worries about jobs and prices
August 15, 2025 2:15 PM UTC
August’s preliminary Michigan CSI is a disappointment, falling to 58.6 from 61.7 in July and 60.7 in June, while remaining above the 52.2 seen in April and May. The fall was led by current conditions while inflation expectations saw a disappointing bounce.
U.S. July Industrial Production - A flat picture, but Empire State survey stronger in August
August 15, 2025 1:28 PM UTC
July industrial production has seen a 0.1% decline overall with manufacturing unchanged, both following two straight gains. Mining fell by 0.4%, a second straight drop, while weather-sensitive utilities saw a marginal 0.2% decline after a rise of 1.8% in June.
U.S. July Retail Sales - Resilient entering Q3
August 15, 2025 12:51 PM UTC
July retail sales with a 0.5% increase are in line with expectations, with net upward revisions totaling 0.4%. Ex auto sales rose by 0.3% also with 0.4% in upward revisions while ex auto and gasoline sales rose by 0.2%, here with revisions of only 0.2%. The data suggest consumer spending is holdin
Asia Open - Overnight Highlights
August 15, 2025 12:00 AM UTC
EMERGING ASIA
EM currencies are trading mostly weaker against the greenback as U.S. PPI sends shockwave throughout global market. The biggest losers are KRW 0.77%, followed by SGD 0.36%, THB 0.32%, PHP 0.29%, MYR 0.12%, TWD 0.09%, INR 0.08%, CNY 0.07% and CNH 0.01%; while the largest losers is IDR by
August 14, 2025
Preview: Due August 15 - U.S. July Industrial Production - Utilities to lead a modest rise
August 14, 2025 1:51 PM UTC
We expect July industrial production to see a second straight 0.3% increase, though for manufacturing we expect only a marginal 0.1% increase, also matching June’s outcome, with utilities again supported by unusually hot weather.
Preview: Due August 15 - U.S. July Retail Sales - Trend losing momentum
August 14, 2025 1:31 PM UTC
We expect a 0.1% increase in July retail sales to follow two straight declines, with 0.1% decline ex autos and an unchanged outcome ex autos and gasoline. This would restore a slowing trend after June saw a correction from declines in April and May.
U.S. July PPI - Shocking rise after a string of subdued months
August 14, 2025 1:02 PM UTC
July PPI has risen a shocking 0.9% overall and ex food and energy, with a 0.6% increase ex food, energy and trade. The surprise was led by a 1.1% surge in services which had been showing an increasingly subdued trend into June, though goods were also firm at 0.7%, 0.4% ex food and energy.
FX Daily Strategy: N America, August 14th
August 14, 2025 9:17 AM UTC
AUD bounced on solid Australian employment data
GBP risks on the downside on GDP data
NOK at attractive levels ahead of Norges Bank decision
USD more likely to gain than fall on PPI
Underlying positive risks tone hard to justify longer term
FX Daily Strategy: Europe, August 14th
August 14, 2025 4:17 AM UTC
AUD bounced on solid Australian employment data
GBP risks on the downside on GDP data
NOK at attractive levels ahead of Norges Bank decision
USD more likely to gain than fall on PPI
Underlying positive risks tone hard to justify longer term
August 13, 2025
FX Daily Strategy: Asia, August 14th
August 13, 2025 9:00 PM UTC
AUD vulnerable if Australian employment data is weak
GBP risks on the downside on GDP data
NOK at attractive levels ahead of Norges Bank decision
USD more likely to gain than fall on PPI
Underlying positive risks tone hard to justify longer term
Preview: Due August 14 - U.S. July PPI - Pattern of weak monthly data but upward back month revisions
August 13, 2025 2:59 PM UTC
We expect July PPI to rise by a modest 0.1% overall and in each of the core rates, ex food and energy and ex food, energy and trade. This would follow unchanged outcomes in all three indices in June, but risk is that those indices will be revised higher, offsetting weakness in July.
FX Daily Strategy: APAC, August 14th
August 13, 2025 2:54 PM UTC
AUD vulnerable if Australian employment data is weak
GBP risks on the downside on GDP data
NOK at attractive levels ahead of Norges Bank decision
USD more likely to gain than fall on PPI
Underlying positive risks tone hard to justify longer term
Asia Open - Overnight Highlights
August 13, 2025 12:00 AM UTC
EMERGING ASIA
EM currencies are trading mostly individually against the greenback as USD chops on Trump/Powell fiasco. The biggest losers are TWD 0.36%, followed by IDR and PHP 0.06%; while the largest losers is KRW by 0.5%, SGD 0.27%, CNH 0.16%, CNY 0.1% and MYR 0.06%.
USD/CNH is trading lower at 7.1
August 12, 2025
U.S. Budget moves back into deficit in July
August 12, 2025 6:27 PM UTC
Contrasting June’s $27.0bn budget surplus, July has recorded a deficit of $291.1bn, which is up from $243.7bn a year ago. Outlays bounced by 9.7% yr/yr after a 7.0% decline in June while receipts rose by only 2.5% yr/yr w3hixch is the weakest since October 2024, and down from a 12.9% rise in June.