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June 14, 2024

U.S. June Michigan CSI - Lower on current conditions
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June 14, 2024 2:11 PM UTC

June’s preliminary Michigan CSI showed an unexpected fall to 65.6 from 69.1, to its lowest since November. Significantly the fall was led by current conditions, a sign that the economy may be slowing, as also suggested by yesterday’s sharp rise in initial claims.

European Summary and Highlights 14 June
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June 14, 2024 11:06 AM UTC

The JPY recovered in the European morning after the overnight sell off, with USD/JPY dropping a big figure to just above 157, while EUR/JPY fell more than 150 pips to trade below 168.

Psychology for major markets June 14th
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June 14, 2024 10:18 AM UTC

EUR under pressure on French election concern; risk sentiment weakening

This week's five highlights
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June 14, 2024 10:00 AM UTC

FOMC delivers hawkish 2024 dots
U.S. Initial Claims up sharply, May PPI corrects April strength
U.S. May CPI Loses Momentum
BoJ Surprise Again
Flat April UK GDP 

FX Daily Strategy: N America, June 14th
Paying Article

June 14, 2024 8:57 AM UTC

BoJ the focus on Friday and surprised market again
Already plenty of reasons for JPY recovery, but increasingly hard to find a trigger
SEK vulnerable vs NOK unless CPI comes in strong
USD generally looks vulnerable if US outperformance fades

CHF flows: EUR/CHF continues to probe lower
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June 14, 2024 8:44 AM UTC

Concerns about French politics and underlying fiscal fragility maintain downward pressure on EUR/CHF

SEK flows: EUR/SEK reverses initial dip after stronger CPI
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June 14, 2024 7:03 AM UTC

Swedish CPI stronger than expected in April, but SEK fails to sustain initial gains

JPY flows: JPY lower after BoJ disappoints, but...
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June 14, 2024 6:53 AM UTC

USD/JPY above 158 for the first time since end-April BoJ intervention after BoJ leaves policy unchanged. But risks remain to the downside

Asia Summary and Highlights 14 June
Freemium Article

June 14, 2024 5:33 AM UTC

BoJ keep rates on hold and did not cut bond purchase this month
Forward guidance suggest BoJ will decide bond purchase cut in July

FX Daily Strategy: Europe, June 14th
Paying Article

June 14, 2024 5:28 AM UTC

BoJ the focus on Friday and surprised market again
Already plenty of reasons for JPY recovery, but increasingly hard to find a trigger
SEK vulnerable vs NOK unless CPI comes in strong
USD generally looks vulnerable if US outperformance fades

AUD/USD flows: Soft regional sentiment
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June 14, 2024 5:07 AM UTC

Chinese and Hong Kong equities in the red

USD/JPY flows: BoJ Surprise Again
Paying Article

June 14, 2024 4:59 AM UTC

BoJ keep rates on hold and did not cut bond purchase this month
Forward guidance suggest BoJ will decide bond purchase cut in July

June 13, 2024

FX Daily Strategy: Asia, June 14th
Paying Article

June 13, 2024 9:00 PM UTC

BoJ the focus on Friday with reduction in bond buying expected
Already plenty of reasons for JPY recovery, but increasingly hard to find a trigger
SEK vulnerable vs NOK unless CPI comes in strong
USD generally looks vulnerable if US outperformance fades

North American Summary and Highlights 13 June
Freemium Article

June 13, 2024 7:49 PM UTC

Overview -
Despite falling on weak data, the USD finished firmer led by EUR weakness.

FX Daily Strategy: APAC, June 14th
Paying Article

June 13, 2024 2:58 PM UTC

BoJ the focus on Friday with reduction in bond buying expected
Already plenty of reasons for JPY recovery, but increasingly hard to find a trigger
SEK vulnerable vs NOK unless CPI comes in strong
USD generally looks vulnerable if US outperformance fades

U.S. Initial Claims up sharply, May PPI corrects April strength
Paying Article

June 13, 2024 1:04 PM UTC

May PPI with a 0.2% decline, and flat core rates ex food and energy and ex food, energy and trade, surprised on the downside and offsets the disappointment on a stronger than expected April increase. More significant however is a sharp increase in initial claims to 242k from 229k, hinting that the l

USD, JPY flows: USD lower after PPI, claims
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June 13, 2024 12:51 PM UTC

USD diops after weaker than xpected PPI and higher jobless claims, but scope for bigger decline

European Summary and Highlights 13 June
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June 13, 2024 11:05 AM UTC

A generally quiet European morning saw little net change in any of the major currencies and no data of any real note. 

Psychology for major markets June 13th
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June 13, 2024 10:21 AM UTC

USD back in ranges

FX Daily Strategy: N America, June 13th
Paying Article

June 13, 2024 9:01 AM UTC

US PPI unlikely to have a big impact
Stronger employment data see muted impact on the Aussie
Scandi strength against the EUR reflects political uncertainty, NOK preferred
Market on watch for pre-BoJ leaks

USD, JPY, EUR, CHF flows: USD lower against riskier currencies after CPI, FOMC
Paying Article

June 13, 2024 6:55 AM UTC

Despite the FOMC dots showing a median expectation of only one rate cut this year, US yields and the USD are lower, except against the JPY, and JPY weakness looks anomalous. Widening France/Germany spreads may maintain downard pressure on EUR/CHF.

Asia Summary and Highlights 13 June
Freemium Article

June 13, 2024 4:23 AM UTC

Australian May unemployment rate steady while headline and participation rate beats

FX Daily Strategy: Europe, June 13th
Paying Article

June 13, 2024 4:21 AM UTC

US PPI unlikely to have a big impact
Stronger employment data see muted impact on the Aussie
Scandi strength against the EUR reflects political uncertainty, NOK preferred
Market on watch for pre-BoJ leaks

USD/JPY flows: USD driving while BoJ meets
Paying Article

June 13, 2024 4:18 AM UTC

USD rebound strongly while market participants awaits Friday's BoJ decision

AUD/USD flows: Employment beats
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June 13, 2024 4:14 AM UTC

Australian May unemployment rate steady while headline and participation rate beats

June 12, 2024

FX Daily Strategy: Asia, June 13th
Paying Article

June 12, 2024 9:00 PM UTC

US PPI unlikely to have a big impact
AUD supported by firm equities but may see short term volatility on employment data
Scandi strength against the EUR reflects political uncertainty, NOK preferred
Market on watch for pre-BoJ leaks

North American Summary and Highlights 12 June
Freemium Article

June 12, 2024 7:54 PM UTC

Overview - The USD fell sharply on a softer than expected CPI before seeing a partial correction after the FOMC. 

FX Daily Strategy: APAC, June 13th
Paying Article

June 12, 2024 3:01 PM UTC

US PPI unlikely to have a big impact
AUD supported by firm equities but may see short term volatility on employment data
Scandi strength against the EUR reflects political uncertainty, NOK preferred
Market on watch for pre-BoJ leaks

Preview: Due June 25 - Canada May CPI - Still slowing if less steeply than in April
Paying Article

June 12, 2024 1:55 PM UTC

We expect May CPI to maintain downward progress, overall and in the BoC’s core rates, though less sharply than was the case in April. We expect overall CPI, and the average of the BoC’s three core rates, to slip to 2.6% yr/yr from 2.7%, which would be the lowest overall CPI since March 2021. We

Preview: Due June 13 - U.S. May PPI - Following a strong April
Paying Article

June 12, 2024 1:29 PM UTC

We expect a 0.1% increase in May’s PPI, with gains of 0.2% in the core rates ex food and energy and ex food, energy and trade. This would follow above trend April data, meaning that should May not produce the subdued data we expect, it would be cause for concern. 

USD flows: USD lower after weaker than expected April CPI
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June 12, 2024 12:53 PM UTC

US CPI 0.1% below consensus, USD has scope for extended decline

European Summary and Highlights 12 June
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June 12, 2024 11:05 AM UTC

A generally quiet European morning ahead of the US CPI data saw some modest gains for EUR/JPY, which gained around 20 pips to 169.10 as both EUR/USD and USD/JPY edged up around 10 pips. 

Psychology for major markets June 12th
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June 12, 2024 10:11 AM UTC

Awaiting US CPI, FOMC and BoJ meetings.

FX Daily Strategy: N America, June 12th
Paying Article

June 12, 2024 9:06 AM UTC

USD focus on CPI and FOMC
Fed expected to be more hawkish, but USD reaction depends on how much
EUR/CHF may remain biased lower if France/Germany spreads continue to widen
GBP steady after April GDP

GBP flows: GBP little changed after as expected GDP data
Paying Article

June 12, 2024 6:31 AM UTC

UK April GDP flat on the month, up 0.7% on a 3m/3m basis, as expected. Little GBP impact

Asia Summary and Highlights 12 June
Freemium Article

June 12, 2024 3:48 AM UTC

Japan May PPI +0.7% m/m, expected +0.4 and +2.4% y/y, expected +2.0%
China May CPI +0.3% y/y, expected +0.4% and PPI -1.4% y/y, expected -1.5%

FX Daily Strategy: Europe, June 12th
Paying Article

June 12, 2024 3:45 AM UTC

USD focus on CPI and FOMC
Fed expected to be more hawkish, but USD reaction depends on how much
EUR/CHF may remain biased lower if France/Germany spreads continue to widen
GBP risks on the downside on April GDP

AUD/USD flows: Looking at the brightside of Chinese Inflation Report
Paying Article

June 12, 2024 3:45 AM UTC

China May CPI +0.3% y/y, expected +0.4% and PPI -1.4% y/y, expected -1.5%
China may introduce additional measures to boost housing market in Third Plenary Sessions

USD/JPY flows: Rebound in PPI
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June 12, 2024 3:37 AM UTC

Japan May PPI +0.7% m/m, expected +0.4 and +2.4% y/y, expected +2.0%

Asia Open - Overnight Highlights
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June 12, 2024 12:00 AM UTC

EMERGING ASIA
EM currencies perform individually against the USD as the early gains of greenback faded after strong Treasury auctions. THB saw the largest win of 0.20%, followed by PHP 0.17%, MYR 0.08%; the biggest losers are TWD 0.47%, KRW 0.16%, CNY 0.09%, CNH 0.08%, INR 0.07%, IDR 0.06% and SGD 0.

June 11, 2024

FX Daily Strategy: Asia, June 12th
Paying Article

June 11, 2024 9:00 PM UTC

USD focus on CPI and FOMC
Fed expected to be more hawkish, but USD reaction depends on how much
EUR/CHF may remain biased lower if France/Germany spreads continue to widen
GBP risks on the downside on April GDP

North American Summary and Highlights 11 June
Freemium Article

June 11, 2024 7:57 PM UTC

Overview - Markets were quiet awaiting US CPI data and the FOMC meeting on Wednesday.  

Preview: Due June 26 - U.S. May New Home Sales - Trend starting to slip
Paying Article

June 11, 2024 7:04 PM UTC

We expect a modest 1.4% decline in May new home sales to 625k, which would be the lowest since November. Survey evidence suggests the housing market is starting to weaken but after a 4.7% decline in April we do not expect a sharp decline in May. 

FX Daily Strategy: APAC, June 12th
Paying Article

June 11, 2024 3:14 PM UTC

USD focus on CPI and FOMC
Fed expected to be more hawkish, but USD reaction depends on how much
EUR/CHF may remain biased lower if France/Germany spreads continue to widen
GBP risks on the downside on April GDP

Preview: Due June 21 - U.S. June S&P PMIs - Corrections seen from surprising strength in May
Paying Article

June 11, 2024 3:09 PM UTC

We expect June’s S and P PMIs to show slippage after surprising improvements seen in May, though we do not expect June’s data to show any clear signs of weakness. 

Preview: Due June 20 - U.S. Q1 Current Account - Deficit to correct higher
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June 11, 2024 1:48 PM UTC

We expect a Q1 US current account deficit of $207.0bn, or 2.9% of GDP, up from $194.8bn in Q4 when the deficit was 2.8% of GDP. Trend in the deficit has been narrowing since Q1 2022 and it is unclear whether Q1’s deterioration marks a turning of trend.

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Preview: Due June 12 - U.S. May CPI - Slower overall, another 0.3% for the core
Paying Article

June 11, 2024 12:27 PM UTC

We expect May CPI to rise by 0.1% overall, which would be the slowest since October 2023, but with a second straight 0.3% increase ex food and energy, to follow three straight gains of 0.4% during Q1. Before rounding we expect the core rate to be very close to 0.3% but the headline to be on the firm

European Summary and Highlights 11 June
Paying Article

June 11, 2024 10:26 AM UTC

EUR/GBP managed some initial gains in the European morning, benefiting from generally weaker than expected UK labour market data.