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May 14, 2025

Psychology for major markets May 14
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May 14, 2025 10:15 AM UTC

USD correcting lower as trade deal impact fades. More rangy trading looking likely near term

Europe Summary and Highlights 14 May
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May 14, 2025 10:11 AM UTC

The USD fell back across the board through the European morning, with the JPY the best performer.

FX Daily Strategy: N America, May 14th
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May 14, 2025 9:19 AM UTC

AUD the biggest beneficiary of continued risk positive tone
JPY decline slowing and some stabilisation seen
CHF and EUR look vulnerable

Asia Summary and Highlights 14 May
Freemium Article

May 14, 2025 5:02 AM UTC

Australian Q1 wage price index +0.9% q/q
Japan April PPI +0.2% m/m 

FX Daily Strategy: Europe, May 14th
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May 14, 2025 4:52 AM UTC

AUD the biggest beneficiary of continued risk positive tone
JPY decline slowing and some stabilisation seen
CHF and EUR look vulnerable

USD/JPY flows: PPI Steadies
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May 14, 2025 1:35 AM UTC

Japan April PPI +0.2% m/m 

Asia Open - Overnight Highlights
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May 14, 2025 12:00 AM UTC

EMERGING ASIA
Most EM currencies are trading individually against the greenback as the U.S. CPI tread lower and drove most action only in NA session. The largest loser is THB by 0.6%, followed by PHP 0.57%, MYR 0.5%, TWD 0.46% and HKD 0.08%; while the biggest winner is SGD 0.39%, KRW 0.18%, INR  0.0

May 13, 2025

FX Daily Strategy: Asia, May 14th
Paying Article

May 13, 2025 9:00 PM UTC

AUD the biggest beneficiary of continued risk positive tone
JPY decline slowing and some stabilisation seen
CHF and EUR look vulnerable

North American Summary and Highlights 13 May
Freemium Article

May 13, 2025 8:05 PM UTC

Overview - The USD was weaker across the board after US CPI came in on the low side of expectations. 

FX Daily Strategy: APAC, May 14th
Paying Article

May 13, 2025 3:20 PM UTC

AUD the biggest beneficiary of continued risk positive tone
JPY decline slowing and some stabilisation seen
CHF and EUR look vulnerable

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U.S. April CPI - Little tariff pass-through so far
Freemium Article

May 13, 2025 1:02 PM UTC

April CPI is on the low side of expectations at 0.2% both overall and ex food and energy, showing a loss of inflationary momentum since a strong start to the year in January, despite the imposition of tariffs. The core rate was up 0.24% before rounding, with the overall pace 0.22%, so the surprise i

Europe Summary and Highlights 13 May
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May 13, 2025 10:13 AM UTC

The USD was generally fairly steady through the European morning, with EUR/USD and USD/JPY not much changed.

Psychology for major markets May 13
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May 13, 2025 10:13 AM UTC

USD steady after recovering on US/China trade deal

FX Daily Strategy: N America, May 13th
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May 13, 2025 8:56 AM UTC

US CPI the main focus, but implications less clear
Weaker data might be seen as USD positive
GBP little changed after mixed labour market data
JPY weakness reaching extremes

Asia Summary and Highlights 13 May
Freemium Article

May 13, 2025 5:30 AM UTC

BoJ Dep Gov Uchida says there is upside & downside risk from US tariffs on Japan's prices
Japan finance minister Kato wants to discuss FX with Bessent

FX Daily Strategy: Europe, May 13th
Paying Article

May 13, 2025 4:28 AM UTC

US CPI the main focus, but implications less clear
Weaker data might be seen as USD positive
GBP may slip lower on softer labour market data
JPY weakness reaching extremes

USD/JPY flows: Retracing partial Monday gains
Paying Article

May 13, 2025 2:38 AM UTC

BoJ Dep Gov Uchida says there is upside & downside risk from US tariffs on Japan's prices
Japan finance minister Kato wants to discuss FX with Bessent

May 12, 2025

FX Daily Strategy: Asia, May 13th
Paying Article

May 12, 2025 9:00 PM UTC

US CPI the main focus, but implications less clear
Weaker data might be seen as USD positive
GBP may slip lower on softer labour market data
JPY weakness reaching extremes

North American Summary and Highlights 12 May
Freemium Article

May 12, 2025 7:44 PM UTC

Overview - The USD rose across the board after the US and China agreed to substantially cut tariffs on each other. 

U.S. Budget Surplus rises in April, Tariffs only a modest proportion of that
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May 12, 2025 6:36 PM UTC

April saw a strong budget surplus of $258,4bn, up from $208.5bn in April 2024, though the deficit in the fiscal year to date of $1048.7bn is up from $855.2bn in the seven months to April 2024, and the 12 month average has been above $2trillion for seven straight months. The deficit on FY 2024 was $1

FX Daily Strategy: APAC, May 13th
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May 12, 2025 3:00 PM UTC

US CPI the main focus, but implications less clear
Weaker data might be seen as USD positive
GBP may slip lower on softer labour market data
JPY weakness reaching extremes

Preview: Due May 22 - U.S. May S&P PMIs - Manufacturing to slip below neutral, Services to hold above
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May 12, 2025 12:51 PM UTC

We expect May’s S and P PMIs to show slippage in manufacturing, to 49.5 from 50.2, but a correction higher on services, to 51.5 from 50.8. Underlying momentum in both series appears to be slowing, though this may fade if trade uncertainty is reduced.

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Preview: Due May 13 - U.S. April CPI - Upside risk after a below trend March
Paying Article

May 12, 2025 12:02 PM UTC

We expect April CPI to increase by 0.3% overall and by 0.4% ex food and energy, the core rate reflecting a rebound from a below trend March as well as some impact from tariffs, though the extent of the tariff impact is highly uncertain. We see the core rate at 0.38% before rounding.

Psychology for major markets May 12
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May 12, 2025 10:12 AM UTC

USD recovering on US/China trade deal

Europe Summary and Highlights 12 May
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May 12, 2025 10:09 AM UTC

The USD gained ground across the board through the European morning, showing particular strength against the JPY and CHF as the US announced a trade deal with China with a reduction in reciprocal tariffs to 10% with other measures postponed for 90 days. 

FX Weekly Strategy: May 12th-16th
Paying Article

May 12, 2025 8:57 AM UTC

US CPI the focus but probably too early for much tariff impact
USD still likely to be favoured if CPI on the high side
GBP can extend recent recovery against the EUR
AUD needs positive US/China news to restore bullish tone

Asia Summary and Highlights 12 May
Freemium Article

May 12, 2025 4:53 AM UTC

Trump says he is about to make "one of the most important and impactful" tweet ever
Trump says prescription drug and pharma prices will be reduced almost immediately
U.S. equities outperform regional equities on upbeat mood

FX Weekly Strategy: Europe, May 12th-16th
Paying Article

May 12, 2025 4:44 AM UTC

US CPI the focus but probably too early for much tariff impact
USD still likely to be favoured if CPI on the high side
GBP can extend recent recovery against the EUR
AUD needs positive US/China news to restore bullish tone

USD/JPY flows: Jump on positive U.S.-China development
Paying Article

May 12, 2025 1:30 AM UTC

Trump says he is about to make "one of the most important and impactful" tweet ever
Trump says prescription drug and pharma prices will be reduced almost immediately

Asia Open - Overnight Highlights
Paying Article

May 12, 2025 12:00 AM UTC

EMERGING ASIA
Most EM currencies are trading individually against the greenback as Trump's comment towards weekend China-U.S. talk supported risk sentiment in the NA session. The largest loser is THB by 0.55%, followed by MYR 0.43%, IDR 0.12%, HKD 0.06% and TWD 0.04%; while the biggest winner is KRW

May 11, 2025

FX Weekly Strategy: Asia, May 12th-16th
Paying Article

May 11, 2025 9:00 PM UTC

US CPI the focus but probably too early for much tariff impact
USD still likely to be favoured if CPI on the high side
GBP can extend recent recovery against the EUR
AUD needs positive US/China news to restore bullish tone

FX Weekly Strategy: APAC, May 12th-16th
Paying Article

May 11, 2025 5:00 PM UTC

US CPI the focus but probably too early for much tariff impact
USD still likely to be favoured if CPI on the high side
GBP can extend recent recovery against the EUR
AUD needs positive US/China news to restore bullish tone

May 09, 2025

North American Summary and Highlights 9 May
Freemium Article

May 9, 2025 7:40 PM UTC

Overview - The USD was mostly slightly softer in a subdued day of trading. 

Preview: Due May 23 - U.S. April New Home Sales - Correction lower within a stable trend
Paying Article

May 9, 2025 4:47 PM UTC

We expect an April new home sales level of 695k, which would be a 4.0% decline if March’s surprisingly strong 7.4% increase to 724k is unrevised. March’s level was near the tip of the recent range but underlying trend continues to have little direction, suggesting a dip in April is likely.

Preview: Due May 22 - U.S. April Existing Home Sales - Pending home sales suggest a rise
Paying Article

May 9, 2025 3:47 PM UTC

We expect April existing home sales to rise by 4.5% to 4.20m, which would not fully erase a 5.9% decline seen in March. Sales would then be up 2.9% on a yr/yr basis, after two straight negatives. 

FX Weekly Strategy: May 12th-16th
Paying Article

May 9, 2025 2:56 PM UTC

US CPI the focus but probably too early for much tariff impact
USD still likely to be favoured if CPI on the high side
GBP can extend recent recovery against the EUR
AUD needs positive US/China news to restore bullish tone

Preview: Due May 20 - Canada April CPI - To fall, but only on removal of carbon tax
Paying Article

May 9, 2025 2:09 PM UTC

We expect April Canadian CPI to fall to 1.6% yr/yr from 2.3% with the fall entirely due to the April 1 removal of a carbon tax which the Bank of Canada estimates will reduce inflation by 0.7%, largely in gasoline. We expect the Bank of Canada’s core rates to be unchanged from March.

Canada April Employment - Private sector detail weak
Paying Article

May 9, 2025 12:48 PM UTC

Canada’s April employment gain is modest at 7.4k, and whole full time employment was up by 31.5k there was also a 37.1k increase in public administration. This makes the report on balance weak, particularly with unemployment rising to 6.9% from 6.7%.

Europe Summary and Highlights 9 May
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May 9, 2025 10:09 AM UTC

The USD was a little softer against the EUR and JPY through the European morning, EUR/USD gaining 20 pips to 1.1245 and USD/JPY losing 20 pips to 145.25. 

Psychology for major markets May 9
Paying Article

May 9, 2025 10:05 AM UTC

USD recovering helped by more positive equity tone

This week's five highlights
Freemium Article

May 9, 2025 10:00 AM UTC

India, Pakistan, and the New Escalation Paradigm
Tariff Man Posing for Another Strike
FOMC leaves rates unchanged, sees increased risk on both sides of mandate
BoE Divided by Scenarios
Norges Bank Policy Easing Continues to be Deferred
Riksbank Fresh Easing Hints Confirmed

FX Daily Strategy: N America, May 9th
Paying Article

May 9, 2025 9:31 AM UTC

JPY weakness looks aberrant but could still extend
Japanese wage data will be a focus
CAD starting to look vulnerable to weak employment data
NOK has potential to recover further unless CPI weakens more than expected

Asia Summary and Highlights 9 May
Freemium Article

May 9, 2025 4:56 AM UTC

Japan March Labor Cash Earnings +2.1% y/y

FX Daily Strategy: Europe, May 9th
Paying Article

May 9, 2025 3:54 AM UTC

JPY weakness looks aberrant but could still extend
Japanese wage data will be a focus
CAD starting to look vulnerable to weak employment data
NOK has potential to recover further unless CPI weakens more than expected

USD/JPY flows: Labor Cash Earning Growth Slows
Paying Article

May 9, 2025 2:31 AM UTC

March Labor Cash Earnings +2.1% y/y

Asia Open - Overnight Highlights
Paying Article

May 9, 2025 12:00 AM UTC

EMERGING ASIA
Most EM currencies are trading mostly weaker against the greenback as USD marches higher on the prospect of a potential trade deal. The largest loser is INR by 1.03%, followed by MYR 0.99%, KRW 0.91%, SGD 0.52%, PHP 0.38%, THB 0.37%, CNY 0.21%, CNH 0.2% and HKD 0.16%,; while the biggest

May 08, 2025

FX Daily Strategy: Asia, May 9th
Paying Article

May 8, 2025 9:00 PM UTC

JPY weakness looks aberrant but could still extend
Japanese wage data will be a focus
CAD starting to look vulnerable to weak employment data
NOK has potential to recover further unless CPI weakens more than expected

North American Summary and Highlights 8 May
Freemium Article

May 8, 2025 7:52 PM UTC

Overview - The USD advanced on optimism on trade. A deal with the UK helped, but the main impetus was Trump comments raising hopes for progress in weekend talks with China. 

FX Daily Strategy: APAC, May 9th
Paying Article

May 8, 2025 3:25 PM UTC

JPY weakness looks aberrant but could still extend
Japanese wage data will be a focus
CAD starting to look vulnerable to weak employment data
NOK has potential to recover further unless CPI weakens more than expected

U.S. Initial Claims correct lower, Unit Labor Costs see a strong quarter
Paying Article

May 8, 2025 12:53 PM UTC

Initial claims at 227k from 241k have reversed most but not all of a spike last week blamed on temporary factors in New York, while continued claims have seen only a partial correction of a sharp preceding rise. A 5.7% increase in Q1 unit labor costs is stronger than expected but above trend.