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February 18, 2025

Asia Summary and Highlights 18 February
Freemium Article

February 18, 2025 5:47 AM UTC

RBA cut by 25bps

USD/JPY flows: USD broadly higher
Paying Article

February 18, 2025 5:40 AM UTC

USD is trading broadly higher on Tuesday

FX Daily Strategy: Europe, February 18th
Paying Article

February 18, 2025 5:33 AM UTC

RBA cut by 25bps
GBP may be vulnerable to more weak employment data
SEK risks on the downside on CPI after rise in Swedish unemployment
CAD could slip lower with dip in core inflation rates

AUD/USD flows: Front running RBA
Paying Article

February 18, 2025 1:53 AM UTC

Market participants pricing in a RBA cut

February 17, 2025

FX Daily Strategy: Asia, February 18th
Paying Article

February 17, 2025 10:00 PM UTC

AUD well supported into the RBA meeting
GBP may be vulnerable to more weak employment data
SEK risks on the downside on CPI after rise in Swedish unemployment
CAD could slip lower with dip in core inflation rates

FX Daily Strategy: APAC, February 18th
Paying Article

February 17, 2025 4:03 PM UTC

AUD well supported into the RBA meeting
GBP may be vulnerable to more weak employment data
SEK risks on the downside on CPI after rise in Swedish unemployment
CAD could slip lower with dip in core inflation rates

Preview: Due February 18 - Canada January CPI - To fall on GST tax holiday
Paying Article

February 17, 2025 2:40 PM UTC

We expect Canadian CPI to slip to 1.7% yr/yr in January from 1.8% in December, the fall largely due to a temporary suspension of the Goods and Services Tax that will ran from Mid-December through Mid-February. Before slightly disappointing data, Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem stated that the t

Psychology for major markets February 17th
Paying Article

February 17, 2025 11:17 AM UTC

USD generally soft as risk sentiment remains positive while strong Japanese data pulls USD/JPY lower

Europe Summary and Highlights 17 February
Paying Article

February 17, 2025 11:14 AM UTC

A quiet European morning saw generally little FX action, with EUR/USD, USD/JPY and AUD/USD all little changed on the morning, reversing a small USD rally seen in the middle of the session.

FX Weekly Strategy: February 17th - 21st
Paying Article

February 17, 2025 9:53 AM UTC

USD weakness may fade if market reconsiders recent events
Tariff threats remain despite delays
Ukraine hopes are still speculative
JPY and AUD look the best placed currencies

Asia Summary and Highlights 17 February
Freemium Article

February 17, 2025 5:10 AM UTC

Japan Q4 GDP surprised higher at 2.8% y/y

FX Weekly Strategy: Europe, February 17th - 21st
Paying Article

February 17, 2025 4:54 AM UTC

USD weakness may fade if market reconsiders recent events
Tariff threats remain despite delays
Ukraine hopes are still speculative
JPY and AUD look the best placed currencies

AUD/USD flows: Positive Start for the week
Paying Article

February 17, 2025 4:20 AM UTC

The risk space is having a positive start for the week

USD/JPY flows: Strong Japan Q4 GDP
Paying Article

February 17, 2025 1:18 AM UTC

Japan Q4 GDP surprised higher at 2.8% y/y

Asia Open - Overnight Highlights
Paying Article

February 17, 2025 12:00 AM UTC

EMERGING ASIA
EM currencies perform mostly stronger against the USD as the tariff man latest rhetoric on reciprocal tariff does not seem to be as pressing as it seems and see risk asset supported, along with falling U.S. Treasury Yields. The biggest winner are THB by 0.6%, followed by IDR 0.58%, KRW

February 16, 2025

FX Weekly Strategy: Asia, February 17th - 21st
Paying Article

February 16, 2025 10:00 PM UTC

USD weakness may fade if market reconsiders recent events
Tariff threats remain despite delays
Ukraine hopes are still speculative
JPY and AUD look the best placed currencies

FX Weekly Strategy: APAC, February 17th - 21st
Paying Article

February 16, 2025 6:00 PM UTC

USD weakness may fade if market reconsiders recent events
Tariff threats remain despite delays
Ukraine hopes are still speculative
JPY and AUD look the best placed currencies

February 14, 2025

North American Summary and Highlights 14 February
Freemium Article

February 14, 2025 8:18 PM UTC

Overview - The USD was marginally softer in Europe, and losses accelerated after weak US retail sales data. 

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Preview: Due February 28 - U.S. January Personal Income and Spending - Core PCE Prices to underperform Core CPI
Paying Article

February 14, 2025 4:33 PM UTC

We expect a 0.3% rise in January’s core PCE price index, slower than the 0.4% seen from core CPI, while we expect a modest 0.3% rise in personal income to outpace an unusual 0.1% decline in personal spending.

FX Weekly Strategy: February 17th - 21st
Paying Article

February 14, 2025 4:09 PM UTC

USD weakness may fade if market reconsiders recent events
Tariff threats remain despite delays
Ukraine hopes are still speculative
JPY and AUD look the best placed currencies

U.S. January Industrial Production - Aircraft and utilities up, mining and autos slip, elsewhere not much change
Paying Article

February 14, 2025 2:33 PM UTC

January industrial production is up a stronger than expected 0.5% more than fully due to a 7.2% surge in utilities that looks like a response to cold weather. Manufacturing fell by 0.1% despite a positive contribution from aircraft as Boeing recovered from a strike, with weather likely a negative he

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U.S. January Retail Sales - Slippage likely to be weather-induced
Paying Article

February 14, 2025 1:57 PM UTC

January retail sales at -0.9% saw a significant downside surprise, though we believe the main reason for weakness was bad weather, with a correction from strength in Q4 also likely to be a factor. The core rates were also weak, ex auto at -0.4%, ex auto and gas at -0.5%, and the control group that c

Psychology for major markets February 14th
Paying Article

February 14, 2025 11:14 AM UTC

USD softer as tariff concerns are brushed off

Europe Summary and Highlights 14 February
Paying Article

February 14, 2025 11:14 AM UTC

The USD was marginally softer in a quiet European morning, maintaining the losses seen overnight, with GBP, CHF and AUD edging up around 0.1% but EUR, JPY and CAD little changed. 

FX Daily Strategy: N America, February 14th
Paying Article

February 14, 2025 10:03 AM UTC

Some USD downside risks on retail sales
US yields fall back after post-CPI rise
Peace dividend from Ukraine could prove elusive
EUR strength relies on continued strong European equity market performance

This week's five highlights
Freemium Article

February 14, 2025 10:00 AM UTC

Negotiations to End Ukraine War to Start Soon
Trump’s Tariffs on Steel Then Reciprocal and Then Cars
U.S. January CPI A clear disappointment
USD/JPY Getting the Ebbs and Flows
UK GDP Surprise Resilience

Asia Summary and Highlights 14 February
Freemium Article

February 14, 2025 5:33 AM UTC

Japan chief cabinet secretary Hayashi says will respond appropriately to US tariffs

FX Daily Strategy: Europe, February 14th
Paying Article

February 14, 2025 4:02 AM UTC

Some USD downside risks on retail sales
US yields fall back after post-CPI rise
Peace dividend from Ukraine could prove elusive
EUR strength relies on continued strong European equity market performance

AUD/USD flows: Sentiment broadly positive
Paying Article

February 14, 2025 3:44 AM UTC

Risk sentiment is broadly positive on Friday

USD/JPY flows: Continue its reversal
Paying Article

February 14, 2025 1:30 AM UTC

Japan chief cabinet secretary Hayashi will respond appropriately to US tariffs

February 13, 2025

Asia Open - Overnight Highlights
Paying Article

February 13, 2025 11:26 PM UTC

EMERGING ASIA
EM currencies perform mostly stronger against the USD as the tariff man latest rhetoric on reciprocal tariff does not seem to be as pressing as it seems. The biggest winner are SGD by 0.76%, followed by THB 0.71%, CNH 0.56%, KRW 0.47%, MYR 0.31%, CNY 0.26%, PHP 0.23%, TWD 0.16%, IDR 0.0

FX Daily Strategy: Asia, February 14th
Paying Article

February 13, 2025 10:00 PM UTC

Some USD downside risks on retail sales
US yields fall back after post-CPI rise
Peace dividend from Ukraine could prove elusive
EUR strength relies on continued strong European equity market performance

North American Summary and Highlights 13 February
Freemium Article

February 13, 2025 8:43 PM UTC

Overview - The USD saw losses with UST yields after US PPI data proved not quite strong enough to raise inflationary concerns. A Trump tariff announcement gave the USD only a brief lift. 

FX Daily Strategy: APAC, February 14th
Paying Article

February 13, 2025 4:02 PM UTC

Some USD downside risks on retail sales
US yields fall back after post-CPI rise
Peace dividend from Ukraine could prove elusive
EUR strength relies on continued strong European equity market performance

Preview: Due February 14 - U.S. January Industrial Production - Cold weather to lift utilities, depress manufacturing
Paying Article

February 13, 2025 2:43 PM UTC

We expect January industrial production to rise by 0.1% overall but with a 0.2% decline in manufacturing. Utilities are likely to be lifted by unusually cold weather which is likely to restrain production elsewhere.

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Preview: Due February 14 - U.S. January Retail Sales - Weather to bring correction from Q4 strength
Paying Article

February 13, 2025 2:33 PM UTC

We expect US retail sales to fall by 1.0% in January with declines of 0.2% both ex autos and ex autos and gasoline. The monthly weakness is likely to be largely due to bad weather with potential for a correction from Q4 strength adding to downside risk.

U.S. January PPI - Trend remains firm, Initial Claims fall
Paying Article

February 13, 2025 1:59 PM UTC

January PPI is slightly stronger than expected overall at 0.4%, but on consensus at 0.3% in both of the core rates, ex food and energy and ex food, energy and trade. December revisions however mean that yr/yr rates are higher than expected, overall PPI at 3.5%, ex food and energy at 3.6% and ex food

Psychology for major markets February 13th
Paying Article

February 13, 2025 11:23 AM UTC

Riskier currencies supported by Ukraine optimism

Europe Summary and Highlights 13 February
Paying Article

February 13, 2025 11:11 AM UTC

The EUR and most of the other risky currencies edged lower against the USD through the European morning, with the exception being GBP, which held its own.

FX Daily Strategy: N America, February 13th
Paying Article

February 13, 2025 9:54 AM UTC

USD PPI risks on the upside
EUR gains on Ukraine news 
JPY weakness looks stretched
GBP gains on GDP unlikely to extend

Asia Summary and Highlights 13 February
Freemium Article

February 13, 2025 4:57 AM UTC

Japan PPI for January is +4.2%y/y

FX Daily Strategy: Europe, February 13th
Paying Article

February 13, 2025 4:30 AM UTC

US PPI risks on the upside
USD could extend Wednesdays gains, particularly against riskier currencies
JPY weakness and equity strength look unreliable
GBP vulnerable to weak GDP data

AUD/USD flows: Improving Sentiment
Paying Article

February 13, 2025 3:58 AM UTC

Risk sentiment improves 

USD/JPY flows: Taking a breather after stronger U.S. CPI
Paying Article

February 13, 2025 1:40 AM UTC

Japan PPI for January is +4.2%y/y

February 12, 2025

FX Daily Strategy: Asia, February 13th
Paying Article

February 12, 2025 10:00 PM UTC

US PPI risks on the upside
USD could extend Wednesdays gains, particularly against riskier currencies
JPY weakness and equity strength look unreliable
GBP vulnerable to weak GDP data

North American Summary and Highlights 12 February
Freemium Article

February 12, 2025 8:49 PM UTC

Overview - The USD bounced after a stronger than expected CPI but the gains were largely erased, outside a sustained bounce in USD/JPY. 

FX Daily Strategy: APAC, February 13th
Paying Article

February 12, 2025 4:14 PM UTC

US PPI risks on the upside
USD could extend Wednesdays gains, particularly against riskier currencies
JPY weakness and equity strength look unreliable
GBP vulnerable to weak GDP data

Preview: Due February 13 - U.S. January PPI - Core rates to bounce from a weak December, but yr/yr rates to slip
Paying Article

February 12, 2025 2:22 PM UTC

We expect January PPI to pick up from a below trend December, rising by 0.3% overall and 0.4% in both core rates, ex food and energy and ex food, energy and trade, as new year price hikes are introduced. However, a stronger rise in January 2024 will allow yr/yr rates to slip. 

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U.S. January CPI - A clear disappointment
Paying Article

February 12, 2025 2:05 PM UTC

January CPI is a clear disappointment rising by 0.5% overall and 0.4% ex food and energy (0.446% before rounding). While there is a problem of residual seasonality bringing strength in Q1 data, that yr/yr rates accelerated, overall to 3.0% from 2.9%, and ex food and energy to 3.3% from 3.2%, will be

Europe Summary and Highlights 12 February
Paying Article

February 12, 2025 11:07 AM UTC

A quiet European morning saw EUR/USD edge up 15 pips to 1.0375, while AUD/USD lost 15 pips to 0.6275.