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October 04, 2024
Preview: Due October 18 - U.S. September Housing Starts and Permits - Picture improving but some risk from weather
October 4, 2024 3:32 PM UTC
We expect September housing starts to see a 1.9% decline to 1330k after a 9.6% August increase though without Hurricane Helene a rise would probably have been seen. We expect permits to rise by 0.7% to 1480k, extending a 4.6% August increase.
FX Weekly Strategy: October 7th-11th
October 4, 2024 2:52 PM UTC
Upside risks for US employment, and market is already overpricing the risk of a 50bp Fed cut in November…
…but USD strength in the last week has already taken it above the levels consistent with yield spread correlations, so some USD downside risks on neutral data
Market remains on watch for Middl
Preview: Due October 17 - U.S. September Industrial Production - Some downside risk on temporary factors
October 4, 2024 2:43 PM UTC
We expect unchanged September industrial production with a 0.1% decline in manufacturing. A strike at Boeing that started in mid-September and Hurricane Helene that came late in the month are downside risks.
U.S. September Employment - A strong month and downside risk to October has fallen too
October 4, 2024 1:13 PM UTC
September’s non-farm payroll is well above consensus with a rise of 254k. Unusually net back revisions are positive at 72k, if largely in government. Unemployment unexpectedly fell to 4.1% from 4.2% and average hourly earnings were above trend at 0.4% again with upward back revisions. This is clea
FX Daily Strategy: N America, October 4th
October 4, 2024 9:01 AM UTC
Upside risks for US employment, and market is already overpricing the risk of a 50bp Fed cut in November…
…but USD strength in the last week has already taken it above the levels consistent with yield spread correlations, so some USD downside risks on neutral data
Market remains on watch for Middl
October 03, 2024
FX Daily Strategy: Asia, October 4th
October 3, 2024 9:00 PM UTC
Upside risks for US employment, and market is already overpricing the risk of a 50bp Fed cut in November…
…but USD strength in the last week has already taken it above the levels consistent with yield spread correlations, so some USD downside risks on neutral data
Market remains on watch for Middl
FX Daily Strategy: APAC, October 4th
October 3, 2024 3:02 PM UTC
Upside risks for US employment, and market is already overpricing the risk of a 50bp Fed cut in November…
…but USD strength in the last week has already taken it above the levels consistent with yield spread correlations, so some USD downside risks on neutral data
Market remains on watch for Middl
U.S. September ISM Services - Strongest since February 2023, but now close to S and P services PMI
October 3, 2024 2:22 PM UTC
September’s ISM services index at 54.9 is the strongest since February 2023 and a sharp rise from August’s 51.5. It brings the index closer to the S and P Services PMI of 55.2, which has been close to 55 for five straight months. We viewed the strength of the S and P index as due to expectations
Preview: Due October 4 - U.S. September Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Initial claims suggest a stronger month
October 3, 2024 1:10 PM UTC
Lower initial claims suggest September’s nonfarm payroll will be a little stronger than the three preceding releases, which averaged 116k. We expect a 180k increase, with 150k in the private sector. We expect unemployment to be unchanged at 4.2% and an in line with trend 0.3% increase in average h
U.S. Initial Claims remain low but some labor market risks lie ahead
October 3, 2024 12:44 PM UTC
Initial claims at 225k fr9m 219k are at a 3-week high though this follows the lowest level since May 18 last week and the 4-week average of 224.25k remains the lowest since June 1. Hurricane Helene may be starting to have some impact and may give a more significant boost next week.
October 02, 2024
Preview: Due October 15 - Canada September CPI - To fall below 2% overall, but with pause in BoC core rates
October 2, 2024 2:50 PM UTC
We expect September Canadian CPI to slip to 1.9% yr/yr from 2.0% on weaker gasoline prices, reaching its slowest since February 2021. However we expect the downtrend in the Bank of Canada’s core rates to see a temporary pause as weak data a year ago drops out.
Preview: Due October 17 - U.S. September Retail Sales - A moderate end to a stronger quarter
October 2, 2024 1:51 PM UTC
We expect a 0.2% increase in September retail sales with a 0.1% increase ex autos, similar to the 0.1% increases seen in both series in August. Ex autos and gasoline we expect a 0.3% increase, slightly stronger than August’s 0.2% but not quite matching a 0.4% gain seen in July.
U.S. September ADP Employment - Stronger increase consistent with lower initial claims
October 2, 2024 12:34 PM UTC
ADP’s September estimate for private sector employment growth of 143k is on the firm side of expectations and stronger than in July or August. This follows lower initial claims data in September. While ADP is far from a reliable guide to payrolls, we continue to expect a similar 150k rise in priva
Europe Summary and Highlights 2 October
October 2, 2024 10:14 AM UTC
USD/JPY gained around half a figure through the European morning session, helped by comments from BoJ governor Ueda who said that markets were still unstable – seen as code for indicating that BoJ policy would remain accommodative for the time being.
FX Daily Strategy: N America, October 2nd
October 2, 2024 9:05 AM UTC
ADP to provide more data ahead of the US employment report
USD well supported against the riskier currencies on Middle East tension
NOK can benefit against SEK on higher oil price
Less scope for CAD gains despite traditional benefit from rising oil
October 01, 2024
FX Daily Strategy: Asia, October 2nd
October 1, 2024 9:00 PM UTC
ADP to provide more data ahead of the US employment report
USD well supported against the riskier currencies on Middle East tension
NOK can benefit against SEK on higher oil price
Less scope for CAD gains despite traditional benefit from rising oil
FX Daily Strategy: APAC, October 2nd
October 1, 2024 3:00 PM UTC
ADP to provide more data ahead of the US employment report
USD well supported against the riskier currencies on Middle East tension
NOK can benefit against SEK on higher oil price
Less scope for CAD gains despite traditional benefit from rising oil
U.S. August JOLTS report sees Job Openings rebound, ISM Manufacturing unchanged with mixed detail
October 1, 2024 2:26 PM UTC
August’s JOLTS report shows quite a sharp rise in job openings, by 329k to 8.04m, more than fully erasing a 199k decline in July but not June’s 320k drop. Trend remains negative, but only modestly. September’s ISM manufacturing index is unchanged at 47.2, with mixed detail.
Preview: Due October 2 - U.S. September ADP Employment - A stronger month after two weaker ones
October 1, 2024 12:54 PM UTC
We expect a 140k increase in September’s ADP estimate for private sector employment growth, above August’s 99k and July’s 111k but a little below where trend was in June, when the 3 month average was 166k. Lower initial claims suggest some pick up in the labor market in September.
Preview: Due October 10 - U.S. September CPI - Core returning to trend, gasoline softer
October 1, 2024 12:02 PM UTC
We expect September’s CPI to increase by 0.1% overall with a 0.2% increase ex food and energy. We expect the core CPI to be very close to 0.2% even before rounding, but with a significant decline in gasoline prices expected, we expect the headline CPI to rise by only 0.06% before rounding.
September 30, 2024
Preview: Due October 11 - U.S. September PPI - Energy to slip, core rates seen slightly slower
September 30, 2024 3:33 PM UTC
We expect an unchanged September PPI, restrained by slippage in gasoline, with 0.2% gains in the core rates, ex food and energy and ex food, energy and trade, both slowing from 0.3% gains in August.
Preview: Due October 1 - U.S. September ISM Manufacturing - Still weak
September 30, 2024 2:47 PM UTC
We expect a September ISM manufacturing index of 47.0, still weak and almost unchanged from August’s 47.2 and July’s 46.8, and also equal to a weaker S and P manufacturing PMI for September which was the lowest since June 2023.
Europe Summary and Highlights 30 September
September 30, 2024 10:15 AM UTC
EUR/USD gained around 20 pips through the European morning, rising after the German CPI data come in weaker than the published median, though probably not as weak as expected after the very low French and Spanish CPI data last week.
September 29, 2024
September 27, 2024
Preview: Due October 10 - U.S. August Trade Balance - Deficit to correct lower despite weaker services surplus
September 27, 2024 4:03 PM UTC
We expect an August goods trade deficit of $71.4bn, which would be the lowest since March, and down from $78.8bn in July which was the widest deficit since June 2022. The average of July and August of $75.1bn would then compare to an average of $74.4bn in Q2.
Canada July GDP - Stronger but Q3 unlikely to reach BoC's forecast
September 27, 2024 1:43 PM UTC
July Canadian GDP with a 0.2% increase exceeded an unchanged preliminary estimate made with June’s data though the preliminary estimate for August is unchanged. If September is unchanged too Q3 would rise by 1.0% annualized, well below a 2.8% Bank of Canada projection made in July. Reaching the Bo