Preview: Due August 28 - U.S. Preliminary (Second) Estimate Q2 GDP - Upward revision on retail and construction
We expect the second (preliminary) estimate of Q2 GDP to be revised up to 3.2% from the first (advance) estimate of 3.0%. The rise should be seen alongside a 0.5% decline in Q1 given recent extreme volatility in net exports.
The upward revision is likely to be led by retail sales, non-durables in particular, given revisions seen in July’s retail sales report. Construction is also likely to see upward revisions in private non-residential and public outweighing a downward revision in housing.
Net exports are likely to be revised up on weaker imports but inventories revised marginally lower. We expect final sales (GDP les inventories) to be revised up by 0.2% to 6.4%, and final sales to domestic buyers (GDP less inventories and net exports) to be revised up by 0.2% to 1.3%.
We do not expect any revisions to the price indices, 2.0% for GDP, 2.1% for PCE and 2.5% for core PCE.
