Asia/Pacific (ex-China/Japan) Outlook: Shifting Gears for Growth

September 25, 2024 7:57 AM UTC

Emerging Asian economies are poised to remain the fastest growing globally. India and Southeast Asia will drive regional resilience amid China’s cooling growth engine in 2025. For India, while the external environment remains challenging due to weaker global demand and geopolitical tensions, domes

RBA Review: Waiting to ease

September 24, 2024 5:12 AM UTC

The RBA meeting on September 24th kept rates on hold 

RBA Review: No surprise

August 6, 2024 5:21 AM UTC

The RBA meeting on August 6th kept rates on hold 

RBA Preview: Should have no surprise

August 5, 2024 7:58 AM UTC

The RBA meeting on August 6th should keep rates on hold as the inflation picture is hotter but does not see more upward momentum

The Aussie Chapter 5: Kiwi, a tale of two cities

July 23, 2024 12:00 AM UTC

In "The Aussie", we will look into the "well-known "correlation among the Aussie and well-known benchmark to give our readers a closer look towards factors that have been affecting the movement of the Australian Dollar. In Chapter 4, we will look into the performance of the Aussie relative to the Ki

Asia/Pacific (ex-China/Japan) Outlook: Growth Momentum but Delayed Rate Cuts

June 21, 2024 9:45 AM UTC

•    Economic activity in emerging Asian economies is forecast to remain strong. Despite several challenges, including a tight oil market, constrained liquidity conditions, and delayed rate cuts, the region's economic activity is expected to show resilience. Other potential obstacles include u

RBA Review: Recognized slower inflation moderation

June 18, 2024 5:06 AM UTC

The RBA meeting on June 18th has kept rates on hold and see the moderation of inflation slower than expected

The Aussie Chapter 4: Chinese Proxy

May 21, 2024 12:00 AM UTC

In "The Aussie", we will look into the "well-known "correlation among the Aussie and well-known benchmark to give our readers a closer look towards factors that have been affecting the movement of the Australian Dollar. In Chapter 4, we will look into the performance of the Aussie relative to the Ch

The Aussie Chapter 3: Risk

May 14, 2024 12:00 AM UTC

In "The Aussie", we will look into the "well-known "correlation among the Aussie and well-known benchmark to give our readers a closer look towards factors that have been affecting the movement of the Australian Dollar. In Chapter 3, we will look into the performance of the Aussie against major equi

RBA Review: Change in wordings, no change in heart

May 7, 2024 6:11 AM UTC

The RBA meeting on May 7th has kept rates on hold and see a change wordings in forward guidance but not the meaning.

Asia/Pacific (ex-China/Japan) Outlook: Election Spending to Drive Growth

March 22, 2024 12:18 PM UTC

·       In 2024, growth trends across emerging Asia will exhibit a mixed pattern. Encouragingly, there will be a resurgence in demand for global electronics following a period of stagnation in 2022‑23, which will provide a boost to regional trade. Moreover, the initiation of monetary policy

RBA Review: Rate as expected but forward guidance changed

March 19, 2024 6:31 AM UTC

The RBA meeting on Mar 19th has kept rates on hold but see a change in forward guidance, which seems to be preparing for a potential shift in monetary policy if data approves.

RBA Preview: Copy and Paste

March 18, 2024 3:35 AM UTC

The RBA meeting on Mar 19th will keep rates on hold as the latest monthly CPI meets estimate but remain above the RBA's inflation target range. The RBA would continue to suggest data dependency be their guide in coming rate decision. We believe there will be no change in forward guidance as CPI is r

The Aussie Chapter 2: Commodities

March 11, 2024 12:00 AM UTC

In "The Aussie", we will look into the "well-known "correlation among the Aussie and well-known benchmark to give our readers a closer look towards factors that have been affecting the movement of the Australian Dollar. In Chapter 2, we will look into the performance of the Aussie against commoditie

The Aussie Chapter 1: Interest Rate and Yields

February 26, 2024 4:27 AM UTC

The Australian Dollar ,"Aussie", has been referred as the commodity currency, risk currency, proxy Yuan by market participants who see correlation between the corresponding benchmark and the Aussie. While they all have sounded reasons to support their perspective, the level of correlation seems to b

RBA Review: Holding as per forecast

February 6, 2024 5:59 AM UTC

The RBA meeting on Feb 6th kept rates on hold at 4.35% as per our forecast. The RBA also left doors open for further tightening and continue to suggest data dependency to lead the future path. 

RBA Preview: A Data Dependent Hold

February 5, 2024 8:25 AM UTC

The RBA meeting on Feb 6th will keep rates on hold as Q4 CPI continue to moderate after a brief spike in Q3. The RBA would suggest data dependency to be their guide in coming rate decision. We believe there will be no change in forward guidance as CPI is still far from RBA's target range. 

Asia/Pacific (ex-China/Japan) Outlook: Going Big, Going Strong

December 18, 2023 10:05 AM UTC

·       Following a stellar performance in 2023, the momentum of economic activity in emerging Asian economies is anticipated to remain broadly stable, albeit lose some sheen in the subsequent quarters. The economic activity levels should be sustained despite a tight oil market and a potentia

RBA: Late to the 2024 Rate Cut Party

December 15, 2023 3:30 PM UTC

We see the RBA staying on holding in H1 2024, even if the Fed and other central banks cut interest rates.  The Australian inflation picture means that the RBA has to stay higher for longer.  However, with CPI eventually falling further, we do see the 1st 25bps cut from the RBA in Q3 2024. 

RBA Review: Continue to be data dependent

December 5, 2023 7:21 AM UTC

RBA keep rates on hold at 4.35%

Long-term Forecasts to download in Excel

November 16, 2023 10:38 AM UTC

Here is a link to an Excel file that contains our headline forecasts for GDP Growth, Inflation, Monetary Policy, and Exchange Rates.

Asia/Pacific (ex-China/Japan) Outlook: Public Spending to be Catalyst

September 27, 2023 2:11 PM UTC

Forecast changes: Strong H1-2023 performance and cooling price pressures have prompted changes to our growth and monetary policy forecasts. Both India and Indonesia’s 2023 GDP growth forecast have been revised upward, and we now expect a rate cut in early 2024. 

Asia/Pacific (ex-China/Japan) Outlook: Defying Global Headwinds

June 21, 2023 11:01 AM UTC

Asia/Pacific (ex-China/Japan) Outlook: Asian Powerhouses Lead Post War and Post Pandemic Growth

March 28, 2023 9:58 AM UTC

Forecast changes: Elevated and sticky inflation and waning external sector stimulus means that the prospects for Asian economies are less optimistic. We have cut Indonesia’s 2023 GDP growth forecast, and revised inflation across the board to reflect the elevated food price pressures in these econo

In-Depth Research: Quick Roadmap Central Bank Forecast/Rationale - February 2023

February 22, 2023 10:44 AM UTC

M/T Quick Roadmap – Fundamental MMKT/CB Roadmap and Rationale
February 2023
US FEDERAL RESERVE
The February 1 December FOMC meeting saw the pace of tightening slowed to 25bps. Inflation has slowed, but January's CPI details still show broad based inflationary pressures at a pace well above the Fed's