Australia
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June 26, 2024
June 25, 2024
Outlook Overview: Cyclical and Structural Forces
June 25, 2024 10:15 AM UTC
• The global economy is showing signs of healing, as inflation comes back towards targets and growth recovers momentum in some economies. Nevertheless, the cyclical headwind of lagged monetary tightening remains in DM countries, and will likely be one of the forces slowing the U.S. economy
June 21, 2024
Asia/Pacific (ex-China/Japan) Outlook: Growth Momentum but Delayed Rate Cuts
June 21, 2024 9:45 AM UTC
• Economic activity in emerging Asian economies is forecast to remain strong. Despite several challenges, including a tight oil market, constrained liquidity conditions, and delayed rate cuts, the region's economic activity is expected to show resilience. Other potential obstacles include u
June 18, 2024
May 28, 2024
May 21, 2024
The Aussie Chapter 4: Chinese Proxy
May 21, 2024 12:00 AM UTC
In "The Aussie", we will look into the "well-known "correlation among the Aussie and well-known benchmark to give our readers a closer look towards factors that have been affecting the movement of the Australian Dollar. In Chapter 4, we will look into the performance of the Aussie relative to the Ch
May 14, 2024
The Aussie Chapter 3: Risk
May 14, 2024 12:00 AM UTC
In "The Aussie", we will look into the "well-known "correlation among the Aussie and well-known benchmark to give our readers a closer look towards factors that have been affecting the movement of the Australian Dollar. In Chapter 3, we will look into the performance of the Aussie against major equi
May 07, 2024
April 03, 2024
March 27, 2024
March 25, 2024
March 22, 2024
March 19, 2024
March 18, 2024
RBA Preview: Copy and Paste
March 18, 2024 3:35 AM UTC
The RBA meeting on Mar 19th will keep rates on hold as the latest monthly CPI meets estimate but remain above the RBA's inflation target range. The RBA would continue to suggest data dependency be their guide in coming rate decision. We believe there will be no change in forward guidance as CPI is r
March 11, 2024
The Aussie Chapter 2: Commodities
March 11, 2024 12:00 AM UTC
In "The Aussie", we will look into the "well-known "correlation among the Aussie and well-known benchmark to give our readers a closer look towards factors that have been affecting the movement of the Australian Dollar. In Chapter 2, we will look into the performance of the Aussie against commoditie
February 26, 2024
February 06, 2024
February 05, 2024
RBA Preview: A Data Dependent Hold
February 5, 2024 8:25 AM UTC
The RBA meeting on Feb 6th will keep rates on hold as Q4 CPI continue to moderate after a brief spike in Q3. The RBA would suggest data dependency to be their guide in coming rate decision. We believe there will be no change in forward guidance as CPI is still far from RBA's target range.
January 30, 2024
January 11, 2024
Webinar Recording December Outlook: Rate Cuts Into 2024
January 11, 2024 8:22 AM UTC
You can now access the webinar for the December Outlook here.
To read the individual chapters please see the weblink below.
Outlook Overview: Rate Cuts Into 2024 (here)
U.S. Outlook: Slower Growth to Sustain Improved Inflation Picture (here)
LatAm Outlook: Diverging Paths in 2024 (here)
China Outloo
January 08, 2024
Charting our Views December Outlook
January 8, 2024 9:05 AM UTC
Outlook Overview: Rate Cuts Into 2024 (here)
Economic Scenarios
U.S. Outlook: Slower Growth to Sustain Improved Inflation Picture (here)
LatAm Outlook: Diverging Paths in 2024 (here)
Brazil Policy Rate and CPI Inflation (YoY, %)
China Outlook: Headwinds To China Growth (here)
Japan Outlook: Normalizing
January 02, 2024
December Outlook: Rate Cuts Into 2024
January 2, 2024 9:53 AM UTC
Outlook Overview: Rate Cuts Into 2024 (here)
U.S. Outlook: Slower Growth to Sustain Improved Inflation Picture (here)
LatAm Outlook: Diverging Paths in 2024 (here)
China Outlook: Headwinds To China Growth (here)
Japan Outlook: Normalizing Monetary Policy Soon (here)
Asia/Pacific (ex-China/Japan) Outlook:
December 19, 2023
December 18, 2023
Outlook Overview: Rate Cuts Into 2024
December 18, 2023 3:42 PM UTC
· Uncertainty still prevails around this central view. The impact of lagged monetary tightening could be greater than our estimates and deliver mild recessions in some DM countries. We also feel that the disinflationary process could be stronger and this would help bring inflation back
December 15, 2023
RBA: Late to the 2024 Rate Cut Party
December 15, 2023 3:30 PM UTC
We forecast headline CPI inflation to continue moderating throughout 2024/25 until breaking below 3% in Q3 2025. Despite dissipating supply chain disruption and global monetary tightening, inflation for 2023/24 CPI has been revised marginally higher to 5.6% and 3.4% respectively as energy prices spi
December 08, 2023
This week's five highlights
December 8, 2023 10:34 AM UTC
U.S. November NFP Likely firmer due to returning strikers
USD/JPY Slumped on Ueda's Speech
Bank of Canada Tightening Bias Persists but is Reduced
USD/CAD Slipping on Weak Oil
RBA Continue to be data dependent
We expect a 200k increase in November's non-farm payroll, stronger than October's 150k though ex
December 05, 2023
RBA Review: Continue to be data dependent
December 5, 2023 7:21 AM UTC
RBA had kept the cash rate on hold at 4.35%. aligned with our forecast as latest inflation dynamics do not support more tightening. The key forward guidance statement of "Whether further tightening of monetary policy is required to ensure that inflation returns to target in a reasonable timeframe wi
November 22, 2023
November 07, 2023
RBA Review: Bringing rates higher and remain data dependence
November 7, 2023 5:47 AM UTC
RBA hike the cash rate to 4.35% as most market participants anticipated. The key statement of "Some further tightening of monetary policy may be required to ensure that inflation returns to target in a reasonable timeframe, but that will depend upon the data and the evolving assessment of risks." ha
RBA Hiking to 4.25%
November 7, 2023 12:01 AM UTC
The Q3 Australian q/q CPI has spiked to 1.2% from 0.8% in Q2 along with RBA trimmed mean CPI showing 1.2% growth from 1% in Q2. There is also evidence in monthly CPI that inflation is indeed higher in consecutive months because of higher energy prices. The RBA has stated that Australian inflation
October 03, 2023
RBA Review: Waiting Q3 CPI to Bring Rates Higher
October 3, 2023 5:04 AM UTC
RBA held the cash rate at 4.1% as we have forecasted. The key statement of "Some further tightening of monetary policy may be required to ensure that inflation returns to target in a reasonable timeframe, but that will depend upon the data and the evolving assessment of risks." stays and suggest R
September 27, 2023
Asia/Pacific (ex-China/Japan) Outlook: Public Spending to be Catalyst
September 27, 2023 2:11 PM UTC
Our Forecasts
Source: Continuum Economics
Risks to Our Views
Source: Datastream
Regional Dynamics: Governments to Prop-up Growth
As in 2022, emerging economies in Asia demonstrated their continued outperformance compared to other emerging markets and exhibited greater resilience compared to developed
September 05, 2023
RBA Review: Copy and Paste Statement Suggest CPI Sensitivity Remains
September 5, 2023 6:18 AM UTC
RBA held the cash rate at 4.1% as most market participants are expecting. The key statement of "Some further tightening of monetary policy may be required to ensure that inflation returns to target in a reasonable timeframe, but that will depend upon the data and the evolving assessment of risks."
August 07, 2023
Navigating the Path to Peace: Saudi Talks on Ukraine-Russia Conflict
August 7, 2023 10:59 AM UTC
Saudi plays peacemaker
The goal of the meeting in Jeddah this weekend was to discuss and potentially agree upon essential principles that could pave the way for a peaceful end to the conflict in Europe. Saudi brought together several stakeholders with diverse interests and perspectives on the conflic
August 01, 2023
RBA Review: In Line with Forecast
August 1, 2023 7:16 AM UTC
RBA held the cash rate at 4.1%, echoing our forecast but to some market participant's surprise. Our forecast of 15bps hike remains as it seems the statement has left the doors open for more tightening to come before the end of year. The key statement of "Some further tightening of monetary policy ma
RBA Preview: Holding for now
August 1, 2023 4:08 AM UTC
The market consensus are currently divided between on hold or a 25bps hike from the RBA in the August meeting as supporting factors exist for both decision. However, in our forecast, we are forecasting an "on hold" meeting on Tuesday with 15bps remaining in the pipeline for RBA before year end 2023
June 21, 2023
Asia/Pacific (ex-China/Japan) Outlook: Defying Global Headwinds
June 21, 2023 11:01 AM UTC
Our Forecasts
Source: Continuum Economics
Risks to Our Views
Source: Datastream
Regional Dynamics: Capital Spending to Buoy Economies
As seen in 2022, emerging Asian economies will continue to outperform other emerging markets and prove to be more resilient than the developed economies. Asia is expecte
March 28, 2023
Asia/Pacific (ex-China/Japan) Outlook: Asian Powerhouses Lead Post War and Post Pandemic Growth
March 28, 2023 9:58 AM UTC
Our Forecasts
Source: Continuum Economics
Risks to Our Views
Source: Continuum Economics
Regional Dynamics: Worsening External Demand To Be A Drag
Slowing global trade and global economic growth will be drag on Asia’s growth story in 2023. Waning global demand for Asia’s key exports, especially for
February 27, 2023
Emerging Asia Faces Crosswinds
February 27, 2023 9:31 AM UTC
Indonesia: Lowest Trade Surplus Since May 2022
Indonesia’s trade surplus came in lower than market expectations as it dipped to $3.9bn in December 2022, from $5.1bn in November. The overall trade balance for Indonesia was at a record high of $54bn in 2022, on account of higher commodity prices duri
February 22, 2023
In-Depth Research: Quick Roadmap Central Bank Forecast/Rationale - February 2023
February 22, 2023 10:44 AM UTC
M/T Quick Roadmap – Fundamental MMKT/CB Roadmap and Rationale
February 2023
US FEDERAL RESERVE
The February 1 December FOMC meeting saw the pace of tightening slowed to 25bps. Inflation has slowed, but January's CPI details still show broad based inflationary pressures at a pace well above the Fed's