Australia
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September 25, 2024 7:30 AM UTC
· The U.S. economy is slowing, with the critical question being whether this is a soft or harder landing. Our broad analysis leaves us inclined to the soft landing view into 2025, though we shall watch real sector data closely over the next 3-6 months to check the trajectory. Else
September 15, 2024 10:30 AM UTC
Uncertainty about whether the U.S. economy will have a soft or hard landing is growing as the market approaches Q4. This is shaping the debate regarding the scale of easing through the remainder of 2024 and 2025 by the Fed. European easing is underway, but how much further will central ba
July 23, 2024 12:00 AM UTC
In "The Aussie", we will look into the "well-known "correlation among the Aussie and well-known benchmark to give our readers a closer look towards factors that have been affecting the movement of the Australian Dollar. In Chapter 4, we will look into the performance of the Aussie relative to the Ki
June 25, 2024 10:15 AM UTC
• The global economy is showing signs of healing, as inflation comes back towards targets and growth recovers momentum in some economies. Nevertheless, the cyclical headwind of lagged monetary tightening remains in DM countries, and will likely be one of the forces slowing the U.S. economy
June 21, 2024 9:45 AM UTC
• Economic activity in emerging Asian economies is forecast to remain strong. Despite several challenges, including a tight oil market, constrained liquidity conditions, and delayed rate cuts, the region's economic activity is expected to show resilience. Other potential obstacles include u
May 21, 2024 12:00 AM UTC
In "The Aussie", we will look into the "well-known "correlation among the Aussie and well-known benchmark to give our readers a closer look towards factors that have been affecting the movement of the Australian Dollar. In Chapter 4, we will look into the performance of the Aussie relative to the Ch
May 14, 2024 12:00 AM UTC
In "The Aussie", we will look into the "well-known "correlation among the Aussie and well-known benchmark to give our readers a closer look towards factors that have been affecting the movement of the Australian Dollar. In Chapter 3, we will look into the performance of the Aussie against major equi
March 18, 2024 3:35 AM UTC
The RBA meeting on Mar 19th will keep rates on hold as the latest monthly CPI meets estimate but remain above the RBA's inflation target range. The RBA would continue to suggest data dependency be their guide in coming rate decision. We believe there will be no change in forward guidance as CPI is r
March 11, 2024 12:00 AM UTC
In "The Aussie", we will look into the "well-known "correlation among the Aussie and well-known benchmark to give our readers a closer look towards factors that have been affecting the movement of the Australian Dollar. In Chapter 2, we will look into the performance of the Aussie against commoditie
February 5, 2024 8:25 AM UTC
The RBA meeting on Feb 6th will keep rates on hold as Q4 CPI continue to moderate after a brief spike in Q3. The RBA would suggest data dependency to be their guide in coming rate decision. We believe there will be no change in forward guidance as CPI is still far from RBA's target range.
January 11, 2024 8:22 AM UTC
You can now access the webinar for the December Outlook here.
To read the individual chapters please see the weblink below.
Outlook Overview: Rate Cuts Into 2024 (here)
U.S. Outlook: Slower Growth to Sustain Improved Inflation Picture (here)
LatAm Outlook: Diverging Paths in 2024 (here)
China Outloo
January 8, 2024 9:05 AM UTC
Outlook Overview: Rate Cuts Into 2024 (here)
Economic Scenarios
U.S. Outlook: Slower Growth to Sustain Improved Inflation Picture (here)
LatAm Outlook: Diverging Paths in 2024 (here)
Brazil Policy Rate and CPI Inflation (YoY, %)
China Outlook: Headwinds To China Growth (here)
Japan Outlook: Normalizing
January 2, 2024 9:53 AM UTC
Outlook Overview: Rate Cuts Into 2024 (here)
U.S. Outlook: Slower Growth to Sustain Improved Inflation Picture (here)
LatAm Outlook: Diverging Paths in 2024 (here)
China Outlook: Headwinds To China Growth (here)
Japan Outlook: Normalizing Monetary Policy Soon (here)
Asia/Pacific (ex-China/Japan) Outlook:
December 18, 2023 3:42 PM UTC
· Uncertainty still prevails around this central view. The impact of lagged monetary tightening could be greater than our estimates and deliver mild recessions in some DM countries. We also feel that the disinflationary process could be stronger and this would help bring inflation back
December 15, 2023 3:30 PM UTC
We forecast headline CPI inflation to continue moderating throughout 2024/25 until breaking below 3% in Q3 2025. Despite dissipating supply chain disruption and global monetary tightening, inflation for 2023/24 CPI has been revised marginally higher to 5.6% and 3.4% respectively as energy prices spi
December 8, 2023 10:34 AM UTC
U.S. November NFP Likely firmer due to returning strikers
USD/JPY Slumped on Ueda's Speech
Bank of Canada Tightening Bias Persists but is Reduced
USD/CAD Slipping on Weak Oil
RBA Continue to be data dependent
We expect a 200k increase in November's non-farm payroll, stronger than October's 150k though ex
December 5, 2023 7:21 AM UTC
RBA had kept the cash rate on hold at 4.35%. aligned with our forecast as latest inflation dynamics do not support more tightening. The key forward guidance statement of "Whether further tightening of monetary policy is required to ensure that inflation returns to target in a reasonable timeframe wi
November 7, 2023 5:47 AM UTC
RBA hike the cash rate to 4.35% as most market participants anticipated. The key statement of "Some further tightening of monetary policy may be required to ensure that inflation returns to target in a reasonable timeframe, but that will depend upon the data and the evolving assessment of risks." ha
November 7, 2023 12:01 AM UTC
The Q3 Australian q/q CPI has spiked to 1.2% from 0.8% in Q2 along with RBA trimmed mean CPI showing 1.2% growth from 1% in Q2. There is also evidence in monthly CPI that inflation is indeed higher in consecutive months because of higher energy prices. The RBA has stated that Australian inflation
September 27, 2023 2:11 PM UTC
Our Forecasts
Source: Continuum Economics
Risks to Our Views
Source: Datastream
Regional Dynamics: Governments to Prop-up Growth
As in 2022, emerging economies in Asia demonstrated their continued outperformance compared to other emerging markets and exhibited greater resilience compared to developed
August 7, 2023 10:59 AM UTC
Saudi plays peacemaker
The goal of the meeting in Jeddah this weekend was to discuss and potentially agree upon essential principles that could pave the way for a peaceful end to the conflict in Europe. Saudi brought together several stakeholders with diverse interests and perspectives on the conflic
June 21, 2023 11:01 AM UTC
Our Forecasts
Source: Continuum Economics
Risks to Our Views
Source: Datastream
Regional Dynamics: Capital Spending to Buoy Economies
As seen in 2022, emerging Asian economies will continue to outperform other emerging markets and prove to be more resilient than the developed economies. Asia is expecte