October 30, 2025 5:31 AM UTC

The BoJ has kept rates unchanged at 0.5% in the Oct 30th meeting with a 7-2 vote

October 29, 2025 4:14 AM UTC

The BoJ will keep rates unchanged at 0.5% in the Oct 30th meeting 

DM Central Banks: Wider-Ranging Conditions More Than Neutral Rates

October 2, 2025 6:55 AM UTC

·        Neutral policy rate estimates and forward guidance provide some help at the start of easing cycles, but less so at mid to mature stages.  For the Fed, ECB and BOE we look at a wider array of economic and financial conditions, alongside our own projections over the next 2 years to m

DM Rates Outlook: Steepening Yield Curve The Old Normal?

September 23, 2025 7:53 AM UTC

•    We continue to forecast further yield curve steepening across the U.S./EZ and UK, driven by cumulative easing.  For the U.S. this can see a modest further decline in 2yr yields, but the prospect is for a move to a premium of 2yr to Fed Funds (unless a hard landing is seen).  10yr yields

Japan Outlook: Ready for Another Step

September 22, 2025 1:30 AM UTC

•    The recovery in private consumption surprised to the upside is Q2 2025 because wage growth regained traction after clarity on the U.S.-Japan trade front. The gradual transition of business price/wage setting behavior will continue to support consumption in 2025/26. Trade balance in 2025 h

BoJ Review: Holding the lines

September 19, 2025 5:20 AM UTC

The BoJ kept rates unchanged at 0.5% in the Sep 19st meeting and announced the selling of their ETF and J-REIT holdings

BoJ Review: As expected

July 31, 2025 5:20 AM UTC

The BoJ kept rates unchanged at 0.5% in the July 31st meeting with inflation forecast revised higher

DM Household Sluggish Borrowing

July 30, 2025 10:45 AM UTC

·        Overall, restrained credit supply from banks; abundant employment/income or wealth for most households but restrained financial conditions for low income households could have restrained household lending growth to GDP.  However, the surge in government debt and ensuing fear of fut

BoJ Preview: Inflation forecast higher

July 29, 2025 6:08 AM UTC

The BoJ will keep rates unchanged at 0.5% in the July 31st meeting 

DM Central Banks: Overlooking Lagged 2021-23 Tightening and QT?

July 2, 2025 8:30 AM UTC

We are concerned that DM central banks are underestimating the lagged impact of 2021-23 tightening and ongoing QT, which impacts the transmission mechanism of monetary policy.  Central banks need to consider cyclical and structural issues, but also need a more rounded view of the stance and implica

DM Rates Outlook: Yield Curve Steepening?

June 23, 2025 8:30 AM UTC

•    We see the U.S. yield curve steepening in the next 6-18 months. 2yr U.S. Treasury yields can step down with cautious Fed easing on a modest/moderate growth slowdown and also if the Fed keeps an easing bias in H2 2026. 10yr U.S. Treasury yields face a tug of war between lower short-dated y

Japan Outlook: Hot Inflation Partially Transitory

June 23, 2025 3:00 AM UTC

·         Growth in private consumption remains sluggish in Q1 2025 on negative real wages. Wage hike in 2025 so far looks little affected by U.S. tariffs and should remain above 2% for the rest of 2025. The subtle change in business price/wage setting behavior will be supportive for consum

BOJ QT And Steeper Yield Curve

June 17, 2025 8:41 AM UTC

Despite the slowdown in the pick-up in BOJ QT, monthly bond purchases are set to slow from Yen4.1trn pm to Yen2.1trn pm by Q1 2027.  With bond maturities BOJ QT is getting bigger and will mean that supply pressures continue to drive yield curve steepening.  We see 1.85% 10yr JGB yields by end 2025

BoJ Review: As Expected

June 17, 2025 5:11 AM UTC

The BoJ has kept rates unchanged at 0.5% in the June 17th meeting 
Bond purchase tapering at 200 billion JPY after Q2 2026

BoJ Preview: Little Cues Expected

June 17, 2025 12:19 AM UTC

The BoJ will keep rates unchanged at 0.5% in the June 17th meeting with anticipation for another two year plan on bond purchase tapering 

BoJ Review: 2025 GDP Forecast Halved

May 1, 2025 5:48 AM UTC

The BoJ kept rates unchanged at 0.5% with significant revision to economic forecast

BoJ Preview: Between the rock and a hard place

April 29, 2025 12:00 AM UTC

The BoJ will not change rate nor forward guidance in the May meeting.

Japan Outlook: Inflation Sustainably Above 2%?

March 25, 2025 10:00 AM UTC

·         Private consumption will have a modest growth in 2025 along the gradual change in business price/wage setting behavior before slowing to average in 2026. Wage hike in 2025 looks to be at least on par with 2024 after early result of the spring wage negotiation. SMEs are going to be

DM Rates Outlook: Policy Divergence

March 25, 2025 9:30 AM UTC

 •    2yr U.S. Treasury yields can step down with cautious  Fed easing on a modest/moderate growth slowdown and also if the Fed keeps an easing bias. 10yr U.S. Treasury yields can be helped by this easing and see a move down through 2025.  However, the budget deficit will likely be 6.5-7.0%

BoJ Preview: Placeholder Meeting

March 18, 2025 12:00 AM UTC

The BoJ will not change rate nor forward guidance in the March meeting.

BoJ Review: Hawkish?

January 24, 2025 5:33 AM UTC

The BoJ hiked by 25bps to 0.5% in the January meeting

BoJ Preview: 50% Hike, 100% Disappointment

January 20, 2025 2:00 AM UTC

Market is currently pricing more than 50% the BoJ will hike in the January 23-24 meeting but it is unlikely to be the hawkish BoJ market participants want.

BoJ: New Year, Old Trick?

January 7, 2025 12:00 AM UTC

USD/JPY is once again close to historical high. But are we seeing an imminent intervention?

Japan Outlook: Lukewarm Japan and BoJ

December 20, 2024 12:00 AM UTC

·        Due to the slow recovery in consumption, 2024 GDP has been revised lower to -0.5%. Private consumption will continue to grow throughout 2025/26 gradually as business price/wage setting behavior gently shift and Japanese consumers adapting to higher inflation. Wage growth in 2025 wil

DM Rates Outlook: Policy and Spread Divergence

December 19, 2024 12:07 PM UTC

•    2yr U.S. Treasury yields can decline initially as the Fed finishes easing (Figure 1), but as the sense grows that the rate cut cycle is stopping, we see the 2yr swinging to a small premium versus the Fed Funds rate – as the market debates the risks of a future tightening cycle.  For 10y

BoJ Review: A nothing burger

December 19, 2024 7:13 AM UTC

The BoJ keep rate unchanged in the Dec 19 meeting at 0.25% with no forward guidance

BoJ Review: Little guidance ahead

October 31, 2024 5:24 AM UTC

The BoJ keep rate unchanged in the Oct 31 meeting at 0.25% with little forward guidance
Quarterly report remains hawkish in policy stance and mixed revision on CPI

BoJ Preview: Forward Guiding Another Hike Imminent

October 24, 2024 5:15 AM UTC

The BoJ will keep rate unchanged in the Oct 31 meeting at 0.25% with forward guidance suggesting an imminent hike

DM Rates Outlook: Rate Cuts Arrive Except Japan

September 24, 2024 9:00 AM UTC

•    For U.S. Treasuries, we see 2yr yields coming down further on our baseline soft landing view, as the Fed moves consistently to a 3.00-3.25% Fed Funds rate. However, with considerable Fed easing already discounted, 2yr yield decline should be modest and 2yr yields should bottom mid-2025. 1

Japan Outlook: A Hawkish Take

September 24, 2024 5:30 AM UTC

·       GDP growth for 2024 has been revised lower to +0.2% after the consumption contraction in Q1 2024 and the subsequent sluggish recovery in Q2. Private consumption is expected to pick up along improving real wages but its magnitude will be limited by the unwillingness to consume at high

BoJ review: Pitstop Along the Road

September 20, 2024 3:33 AM UTC

The BoJ keep rate unchanged in the Sep 20 meeting at 0.25% with forward guidance of more tightening to come

BoJ Preview: Signaling More Tigthening

September 19, 2024 7:38 AM UTC

The BoJ will likely keep rate unchanged in the Sep 20 meeting with forward guidance of more tightening to come

BoJ Review: Too hawkish, too fast

July 31, 2024 5:39 AM UTC

BoJ hiked rates to 0.25% and announced 3 trillion JPY bond purchases reduction in two years

BoJ Preview: Reduction in Bond Purchase

July 29, 2024 4:27 AM UTC

BoJ will likely decrease bond purchase from six trillion JPY to at least five trillion.

DM Rates Outlook: Rate Cuts Arrive Except Japan

June 24, 2024 8:45 AM UTC

•    For U.S. Treasuries we see a steady easing process from the Fed from September, which can allow 2yr yields to fall consistently.  However, the decline in H2 2024 will be slower at the long-end from traditional yield curve steepening pressures and then we see fiscal stress in H1 2025 unde

Japan Outlook: Slow but not Steady

June 21, 2024 12:15 AM UTC

•    GDP growth for 2024 has been revised lower to +0.4% as private consumption contracted stronger in Q1 2024 from moderating but still persistent inflationary pressure. We forecast consumption to gradually recover throughout the rest of 2024 as real wage turned from negative to positive yet

BoJ Review: Pushing Hikes to July, if any

June 14, 2024 5:24 AM UTC

BoJ keep rates and bond purchase the same, suggesting the planning for bond purchase cut will be decided in July

BoJ Preview: The Step of Faith

June 11, 2024 3:33 AM UTC

BoJ will likely decrease bond purchase from six trillion JPY to five trillion and hike interest rate by 0.1% as wage growth will bring trend inflation higher

BoJ's Door Closing But Window Opens

May 27, 2024 5:23 AM UTC

Since the BoJ moved interest rate to 0% in March, most market participants expects further tightening as it is hard to believe the BoJ would hike once after all these years of ultra-loose monetary policy, in face of higher inflation. However, with headline inflation trading closer to 2%, it seems th

France and Japan: Debt Fuelled Growth Problem

May 16, 2024 10:30 AM UTC

Most of the surge in debt/GDP in Japan and 40% in France is due to higher government debt and this should not be a binding constraint provided that large scale QT is avoided – we see the ECB slowing QT in 2025 and are skeptical about BOJ QT in the next few years.  The adverse impact of higher deb

BoJ Review: No change with upward revision in CPI Forecasts

April 26, 2024 7:38 AM UTC

BoJ has kept interest rate at 0-0.1%.
2024 CPI has been revised higher and GDP lower

BoJ's Intervention and its impact

April 25, 2024 6:24 AM UTC

In the period of time when JPY significantly weakens or strengthens, BoJ will intervene in the FX market either through verbal or actual intervention. As JPY weakened significantly in the past months, once again we found ourselves in the proximity of FX intervention with unknowns for anonymity is ke

BoJ Preview: Showing no hurry

April 22, 2024 6:13 AM UTC

Our central forecast is for the BoJ to remain on hold for interest rate and signals the market they are in no rush to further tighten while allowing trend inflation data to lead policy direction in their forward guidance. BoJ has moved interest rate to 0% and officially removed YCC in March, citing

Japan Outlook: Beginning of A New Era?

March 25, 2024 4:54 AM UTC

Bottom Line:
Forecast changes: We revised 2024 GDP lower to +0.8% from +0.9% because private consumption is now expected to contract in Q1 2024. 2024 CPI is revised higher to +2.1% from +1.7% to address the stronger wage hike Japanese unions secured.

DM Rates Outlook: Rate Cuts Arriving and Positive Yield Curves

March 22, 2024 2:00 PM UTC

BoJ Review: Zero

March 19, 2024 6:14 AM UTC

BoJ has moved interest rate to 0% and officially removed YCC. However, forward guidance suggest the BoJ is in no hurry to further tighten

BoJ Preview: 50-50

March 13, 2024 3:17 AM UTC

Our central forecast is for the BoJ to change forward guidance in March, indicating trend inflation will be achieving target and ultra-ease monetary policy is no longer necessary and hike interest rate to 0% in April as wage growth has accelerated and the latest wage negotiation is likely to ensure

Japanese Equities: Yen Headwind Rather than Tailwind

March 12, 2024 11:23 AM UTC

Bottom Line: Japanese equities tailwind from a weak JPY boosting corporate earnings will likely go into reverse, as the extreme JPY undervaluation ebbs with small BOJ rate hikes and Fed easing.  We also forecast less nominal GDP growth in 2024 and 2025 than the market consensus.  As this come thro

BoJ Review: Ueda Hinting April Move

January 23, 2024 8:11 AM UTC

The BoJ meeting is a non -event as there is no change to policy and forward guidance. But Ueda is revealing key details in the press conference and hints an April move.