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April 04, 2025

Chart EUR/USD Update: Consolidating break to 1.1145, fresh year high
Paying Article

April 4, 2025 1:46 AM UTC

Break of the March high at 1.0954 has seen strong rally to reach fresh year high at 1.1145

Chart EUR/JPY Update: Room for deeper pullback from 164.00 resistance
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April 4, 2025 1:27 AM UTC

Extending choppy trade as prices remains unable to sustain break of the 160.72, 21 March low

USD/JPY flows: Taking a breather
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April 4, 2025 1:26 AM UTC

BOJ deputy governor Uchida says will raise rates if inflation rises and economy improves

Chart USD/JPY Update: Consolidating sharp losses to 145.17 low
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April 4, 2025 1:16 AM UTC

 Losses through the 146.54 March low has seen extension to reach fresh year low at 145.17

Chart NZD/USD Update: Consolidating test of .5850 resistance
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April 4, 2025 12:42 AM UTC

Consolidation below the .5773 resistance has given way to sharp break higher through the Mar high at .5830 to reach the .5850 resistance

Chart AUD/USD Update: Still choppy, but pressure building on the upside
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April 4, 2025 12:21 AM UTC

No follow-through on break above the .6330 resistance but pressure remains on the upside

Asia Open - Overnight Highlights
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April 4, 2025 12:00 AM UTC

EMERGING ASIA
EM currencies perform mostly stronger against the USD as there is a broad base exodus from the greenback after the universal tariff announcement. The biggest winner is SGD by 0.88%, followed by KRW 0.79%, MYR 0.24%, CNH 0.22%, PHP 0.21%, INR 0.08% and HKD 0.05%; while the largest loser

April 03, 2025

FX Daily Strategy: Asia, April 4th
Paying Article

April 3, 2025 9:00 PM UTC

ISM services survey could provide more negative news on the US economy
Trade data also likely to emphasise weakness in Q1 GDP
USD can weaken even in a risk negative environment
CHF CPI unlikely to have much impact, but CHF/JPY vulnerable

North American Summary and Highlights 3 April
Freemium Article

April 3, 2025 7:58 PM UTC

Overview - The USD was softer across the board but corrected off its lows in late trade. 

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Mexico: Saved from Tariffs?
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April 3, 2025 7:56 PM UTC

Mexico has avoided reciprocal tariffs but still faces steel, aluminum, and auto tariffs. Authorities are negotiating to exempt goods, though retaliatory tariffs on U.S. imports seem unlikely. Mexico's economy is slowing, with growing recession fears and diminishing nearshoring prospects. The industr

U.S. Fed's Cook - Hold rates steady for now
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April 3, 2025 6:53 PM UTC

Fed's Cook backs the message of Jefferson today and Kugler yesterday. Powell speaks tomorrow.

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Turkiye’s Inflation Slightly Decreased in March
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April 3, 2025 6:48 PM UTC

Bottom line: Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK) announced on April 3 that the inflation softened to 38.1% y/y in March from 39.1% y/y in February. We think favourable base effect, lagged impacts of previous tightening, relative Turkish lira (TRY) stability until March 20 and suppressed wages cont

U.S. Fed's Jefferson - No hurry to adjust rates
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April 3, 2025 4:42 PM UTC

Fed's Jefferson is giving a similar message to Kugler yesterday. Powell speaks tomorrow.

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Tariffs: Inflation may be the biggest worry for the U.S.
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April 3, 2025 4:12 PM UTC

While surprising the market in their intensity, Trump’s “reciprocal” tariffs were in line with previous threats on most countries, and with Canada and Mexico being treated less harshly that feared, the net surprise is modest to us. However we do feel that inflationary risks have increased furt

Chart USD/BRL Update: Extending December losses
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April 3, 2025 3:39 PM UTC

Cautious trade has given way to a sharp break lower

FX Daily Strategy: APAC, April 4th
Paying Article

April 3, 2025 3:01 PM UTC

ISM services survey could provide more negative news on the US economy
Trade data also likely to emphasise weakness in Q1 GDP
USD can weaken even in a risk negative environment
CHF CPI unlikely to have much impact, but CHF/JPY vulnerable

U.S. March ISM Services - Slowing consistent with regional surveys
Paying Article

April 3, 2025 2:24 PM UTC

March’s ISM services index of 50.8, down from 53.5, is the weakest since June 2024, and contrasting a healthy S and P services PMI of 54.4. The weakness of the ISM data is however consistent with weak messages from most regional Fed surveys of the service sector.

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ECB March Meeting Account – More Focus on Downside Risks than those on the Upside?
Freemium Article

April 3, 2025 2:22 PM UTC

The Account of the Governing Council meeting on 5-6 March 2025 seemingly dwelt more on the downside risks posted by trade uncertainties than the upside risks posed by fiscal expansion plans across much of the EU.  It noted that not all members supported the proposal to lower the three key ECB inter

USD, EUR, JPY flows: USD weakness dramatic
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April 3, 2025 2:05 PM UTC

USD declines have been sharp and greater than suggested by yield spread moves. We may be seeing a sea change in sentiment

Chart USD/CAD Update: Sharply lower in both USD- and CAD-driven trade
Freemium Article

April 3, 2025 1:54 PM UTC

Consolidation has given way to a swift USD- and CAD-driven fall

Chart AUD/USD Update: More positive above 0.6385/00
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April 3, 2025 1:26 PM UTC

Volatile price action is giving way to a fresh run higher in broad USD-weakness

U.S. February Trade Deficit remains very high, Initial Claims still low
Paying Article

April 3, 2025 1:13 PM UTC

Initial claims remain low at 219k, in fact surprisingly so at 219k from 225k, though continued claims at 1.903m from 1.847m are the highest since November 2021, and that could be a warning of a labor market slowing, though the 4-week average is creeping up only slowly.

Chart EUR/JPY Update: Heightened volatility in broad range
Paying Article

April 3, 2025 12:56 PM UTC

The spike above resistance at 164.00 has been pushed sharply lower in volatile trade

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Preview: Due April 4 - U.S. March Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Stronger than January and February, but slower than November and December
Paying Article

April 3, 2025 12:01 PM UTC

We expect a 165k increase in March’s non-farm payroll, both overall and in the private sector, to show the labor market remains healthy despite growing downside economic risks. We expect the unemployment rate to slip to 4.0% from 4.1%, and an in line with trend 0.3% increase in average hourly earn

Chart USD/CHF Update: Extending January losses
Paying Article

April 3, 2025 11:01 AM UTC

Anticipated losses have extended, with the break below 0.8650 reaching congestion support at 0.8600

Chart EUR/GBP Update: Heightened volatility - studies improving
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April 3, 2025 10:53 AM UTC

Cautious trade has given way to a sharp EUR-driven spike higher

Chart EUR/USD Update: January gains posting fresh 2025 highs
Paying Article

April 3, 2025 10:24 AM UTC

Steady buying interest has posted a fresh 2025 year high around 1.1145

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U.S. Tariffs - the EZ/EU Response?
Paying Article

April 3, 2025 10:24 AM UTC

The U.S is imposing a widespread tariff on the EU of 20%, higher and broader than expected, this based on U.S. calculation of an effective tariff rate of in effect 39 per cent, a figure the EU puts at about 1 per cent.  Moreover, rather than including factors such as VAT, and hygiene restrictions o

Psychology for major markets April 3rd
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April 3, 2025 10:23 AM UTC

USD dumped as equities slump on tariff increases

Europe Summary and Highlights 3 April
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April 3, 2025 10:17 AM UTC

The USD extended declines through the European morning, with the riskier currencies slightly outperforming the JPY, although the CHF was the strongest performer.

Chart USD/JPY Update: Extending January losses
Paying Article

April 3, 2025 9:25 AM UTC

Cautious trade has given way to anticipated losses

FX Daily Strategy: N America, April 3rd
Paying Article

April 3, 2025 8:59 AM UTC

ISM services survey could provide more negative news on the US economy
Trade data also likely to emphasise weakness in Q1 GDP
USD can weaken even in a risk negative environment
CHF CPI unlikely to have much impact, but CHF/JPY vulnerable

Chart USD Index DXY Update: Fresh year lows - studies under pressure
Paying Article

April 3, 2025 8:40 AM UTC

Consolidation around 104.00 has given way to a sharp break lower

Chart EUR/CHF Update: Volatility giving way to a drift lower
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April 3, 2025 8:30 AM UTC

The spike above congestion around 0.9550 into the 0.9600/35 range has been pushed back sharply

Chart USD/CHF Update: Sharp reversal lower
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April 3, 2025 8:11 AM UTC

Cautious trade around 0.8850 has given way to sharp losses

Chart EUR/GBP Update: Choppy in range - studies leaning lower
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April 3, 2025 7:59 AM UTC

Little change, as prices extend cautious trade in heightened volatility

Chart EUR/USD Update: Fresh 2025 year highs within 1.0970/00
Paying Article

April 3, 2025 7:44 AM UTC

Cautious trade around 1.0800 has given way to a sharp bounce

Chart GBP/USD Update: Pressuring the 1.3120 Fibonacci retracement - studies improving
Freemium Article

April 3, 2025 7:31 AM UTC

Cautious trade around congestion support at 1.2900 has given way to a steady bounce

Chart GBP/JPY Update: Pressure building on the downside
Paying Article

April 3, 2025 7:25 AM UTC

Choppy trade see pressure building on the downside as resistance at the 196.00 congestion caps

Chart AUD/JPY Update: Under pressure, focus return to 92.00 level
Paying Article

April 3, 2025 7:04 AM UTC

 Sharply lower through the 93.60 support and 93.00 level as prices extend the mid-week rejection from the 95.50/75 resistance

USD, EUR, JPY flows: USD down on tariff rise, JPY favoured
Paying Article

April 3, 2025 6:53 AM UTC

The market seems to have been unprepared for the well flagged US tariff increase, and equity weakness and bond yield declines suggest JPY gains most reliable

Chart EUR/AUD Update: Back to retest 1.7418, March YTD high
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April 3, 2025 6:40 AM UTC

Sharply higher to extend bounce from the mid-week 1.7112 low to retest the 1.7418, March YTD high

Chart AUD/NZD Update: Extending losses
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April 3, 2025 6:05 AM UTC

Under pressure to extend sharp losses from the 1.1030 high of Tuesday

Chart USD/INR Update: Higher in consolidation from 85.4000 low
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April 3, 2025 5:07 AM UTC

Edged up in consolidation from fresh year low at 85.4000 as the daily studies unwind oversold readings

Asia Summary and Highlights 3 April
Freemium Article

April 3, 2025 5:04 AM UTC

Trump's tariff comes to light and it is a bloodbath

Chart USD/CNH Update: Consolidating spike to 7.3500
Paying Article

April 3, 2025 4:55 AM UTC

Break of the 7.3000/7.3110 resistance saw sharp gains to approach the 7.3500 before settling back to consolidate above the 7.3000

FX Daily Strategy: Europe, April 3rd
Paying Article

April 3, 2025 4:34 AM UTC

ISM services survey could provide more negative news on the US economy
Trade data also likely to emphasise weakness in Q1 GDP
USD can weaken even in a risk negative environment
CHF CPI unlikely to have much impact, but CHF/JPY vulnerable

AUD/USD flows: Bloody Opening, Wounds closing for now
Paying Article

April 3, 2025 4:17 AM UTC

Bloody opening for global equities

Chart USD/THB Update: Extending gains
Paying Article

April 3, 2025 2:42 AM UTC

Further extend gains from the March low through the February/March highs at 34.25/34.32 to reach 34.45 high

Chart USD/KRW Update: Limited pullback from 1477.00 resistance
Paying Article

April 3, 2025 2:23 AM UTC

Little change, as prices settled back in consolidation from retest of the 1477.00 January YTD high