UK Election Aftermath: Labour’s Solid Victory

July 5, 2024 5:24 AM UTC

Labour have won a large seat majority, though with a modest vote share.  This should provide political stability in the UK for the next 5 years.  The key question for market remains how the fiscal rule will be meet and how slowly or quickly Labour will take actions to boost long-term growth. 

UK Markets After The Election: Will Labour Push for Growth Slowly or Quickly?

June 28, 2024 7:14 AM UTC

It is uncertain whether an incoming Labour government in the UK would slowly or quickly take action to boost trend growth and this is the most important question for post-election sentiment towards UK assets.  For the Gilt market, the key is that the BOE actually starts cutting rates and that the 1

South Africa: Structural Issues to Dominate Long Term Growth

January 29, 2024 9:00 AM UTC

Bottom line: We expect 1.3-1.5% GDP growth in South Africa in the 2025-2030 period. We are concerned with the structural problems affecting economic dynamics negatively, including loadshedding, transportation bottlenecks, and shrinking trade surplus. Despite structural problems; growing population,

Climate Change: 2025-30 Rather than Long-Term Impacts

January 26, 2024 4:15 PM UTC

Bottom Line: In the 2half of the 2020’s GDP in DM economies will benefit from climate change investment, though the net positive impact will likely be modest on an annual basis. The impact on EM economies will be more mixed, as lack of fiscal space restrains the scale of green investment and some

China: Five Headwinds To Long Term Growth

January 5, 2024 9:00 AM UTC

The catch-up productivity argument would point towards 4-5% growth in China in the 2025-2030 period.  However, we are concerned that the residential property downturn and rewiring of global supply chains will be persistent headwinds for China GDP growth in the coming years and that the adverse popu

AI and Technology Impact on Growth and Inflation

January 3, 2024 10:30 AM UTC

Bottom Line: The full benefits of the latest AI wave will likely not kick in until the late 2020/early 2030’s.However, 5G over the last couple of years has been enabling more connectivity via the Internet of Things and allowing more big data analysis, including AI tools and algorithms. In the 2hal

LatAm: Long Term Growth Differences

November 24, 2023 11:52 AM UTC

In Latin America, distinctive long-term growth patterns are emerging. Brazil faces challenges of an aging population and constrained capital growth, aiming to return to pre-pandemic growth at 1.7%. Mexico anticipates growth through nearshoring, intensifying existing industries for a 2% long-term pro

Long-term Forecasts to download in Excel

November 16, 2023 10:38 AM UTC

Here is a link to an Excel file that contains our headline forecasts for GDP Growth, Inflation, Monetary Policy, and Exchange Rates.

South Africa: Structural Issues to Dominate Long Term Growth

November 14, 2023 1:07 PM UTC

Bottom line: We expect 1.3-1.5% GDP growth in South Africa in the 2025-2030 period. We are concerned with the structural problems affecting economic dynamics negatively, including loadshedding, transportation bottlenecks, and shrinking trade surplus. Despite structural problems; growing population,