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June 20, 2024

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Commodities Outlook: Fundamentals Kick In
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June 20, 2024 10:00 AM UTC

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is projected to end 2024 at USD82. We anticipate that the voluntary cuts introduced in November 2023 will likely be reversed during H1 2025 and not in Q4 2024, as initially communicated by OPEC+. The scenario is built on our expectation that demand will not increase suf

June 06, 2024

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Country Risk in MENA
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June 6, 2024 9:00 AM UTC

Country risk in Middle East and North Africa is impacted by the ongoing war in Gaza, alongside reviews of Saudi Arabia and Iran.     

March 21, 2024

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Commodities Outlook: A Promising Horizon
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March 21, 2024 11:00 AM UTC

March 08, 2024

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Country Risk in MENA
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March 8, 2024 11:00 AM UTC

Country risk in Middle East and North Africa is impacted by the ongoing war in Gaza.     

January 25, 2024

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The war in Gaza and Country Risk in MENA
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January 25, 2024 11:00 AM UTC

Country risk in Middle East and North Africa is impacted by the ongoing war in Gaza, though we feel that the war will likely come to an end in the coming months.    

January 19, 2024

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Middle East and North Africa: Country Risk Ratings
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January 19, 2024 10:00 AM UTC

We provide country risk reviews for Middle East and North Africa including Saudi Arabia, Iran and Egypt.  

January 17, 2024

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Saudi Iran Relations Help Cools Major Risk
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January 17, 2024 8:00 PM UTC

Saudi Arabia less hostile relationship with Iran is curtailing the risk of a major war in the Middle East.  

December 15, 2023

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Commodities Outlook: Economic Forces at Play
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December 15, 2023 11:21 AM UTC

•    Oil: Production Cuts and Demand DynamicsThe trajectory of oil prices will be significantly shaped by both the production policies to be adopted by OPEC and the global economic growth. In light of the voluntary cuts agreed upon by several countries within the cartel during the November 202

October 20, 2023

Middle East and North Africa: Country Risk Ratings
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October 20, 2023 3:18 PM UTC

Algeria
Algeria’s overall risk remains medium high. Since Abdelmadjid Tebboune assumed office in December 2019, a series of popular policies have been implemented, contributing to an enhancement of government and political stability. Notwithstanding, a number of challenges persist, making political

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Middle East and North Africa: Country Risk Grows
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October 20, 2023 8:49 AM UTC

 It is also feasible that Hezbollah in South Lebanon could be drawn into the conflict depending on how the situation in Gaza and Israel develops. Israel is also likely to retaliate against Iran at a later date, due to intense political pressures in Israel. This is most probably to involve attacks o

October 11, 2023

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Markets: Middle East Tension and Less Fed Hawkishness
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October 11, 2023 10:39 AM UTC

The human tragedy for all the families affected by the Israel/Hamas war is uppermost in people minds and they are in our thoughts at this terrible time. For markets, the Israel/Hamas war is fuelling Middle East tensions, with the traditional flight to quality bid for U.S. Treasuries. Less hawkish F

October 09, 2023

Attack on Israel Raises Middle East Tensions
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October 9, 2023 9:45 AM UTC

Hamas attack on Israel has caused renewed Middle East tension, but how will the situation develop in the coming weeks?
Israel immediate aim is to reestablishes control of its own territory as Israeli forces continue to fight against Hamas gunmen to recapture its towns, which may take longer than Isra

August 31, 2023

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BRICS Band Expands: New Harmonies in Global Orchestra
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August 31, 2023 10:57 AM UTC

Following the summit in Johannesburg last week, the South African President Cyril Ramaphosa announced that six new candidates have been selected to join the BRICS group, and will formally become members on January 1, 2024. This includes Iran, Saudi Arabia, Ethiopia, UAE, Argentina and Egypt. The inv

August 29, 2023

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BRICS: Political Breakthrough, but No Common Currency
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August 29, 2023 10:16 AM UTC

The BRICS summit agreement to offer membership to six additional countries (Argentina, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia and UAE) is a political breakthrough for China/Russia and others that feel that U.S. centric global system and institutions are not providing a fair approach for large EM countr

July 19, 2023

Middle East: Country Risk Ratings
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July 19, 2023 2:15 PM UTC

Bahrain
Bahraini overall risk has fallen from medium-high to medium. Social unrest remains a challenge in Bahrain, due to its Shia Muslim population’s long-drawn discontent with the Sunni ruling Al Khalifa royal family. The Sunni ruling Al Khalifa royal family holds the main political and military

April 14, 2023

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MENA and The Iran/Saudi Arabia Agreement

April 14, 2023 7:43 AM UTC

Figure 1: Iran and Saudi Arabia GDP forecasts
Source: IMF 
Foreign ministers have already meet in Beijing in early April and Iran’s President Raisi is planning a trip to Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia’s motivation is to promote regional peace, which in turn will help foreign funding to the vision 203

January 11, 2023

MENA: Playing Both Sides
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January 11, 2023 8:36 AM UTC

 Most Middle East Countries have stayed neutral on the Ukraine war except for Iran and Syria who supported Russia, but could geopolitics evolve and see countries taking sides? 
Figure 1: Proven Gas and Oil Reserves (% of Middle East Total)
Source: BP Statistical Year Book 2021 
Ukraine War
Iran suppl