Commodities Outlook: Fragile Foundations

September 23, 2024 9:30 AM UTC

Oil prices in the short to medium term will be shaped by demand in China and the U.S. In particular, we expect weak data in China to continue weighting on oil prices in Q4 2024, with limited upside risks from supply-side developments. In 2025, demand growth will likely remain slow in the first half,

Commodities Outlook: Fundamentals Kick In

June 20, 2024 10:00 AM UTC

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is projected to end 2024 at USD82. We anticipate that the voluntary cuts introduced in November 2023 will likely be reversed during H1 2025 and not in Q4 2024, as initially communicated by OPEC+. The scenario is built on our expectation that demand will not increase suf

Country Risk in MENA

June 6, 2024 9:00 AM UTC

Country risk in Middle East and North Africa is impacted by the ongoing war in Gaza, alongside reviews of Saudi Arabia and Iran.     

Commodities Outlook: A Promising Horizon

March 21, 2024 11:00 AM UTC

Country Risk in MENA

March 8, 2024 11:00 AM UTC

Country risk in Middle East and North Africa is impacted by the ongoing war in Gaza.     

The war in Gaza and Country Risk in MENA

January 25, 2024 11:00 AM UTC

Country risk in Middle East and North Africa is impacted by the ongoing war in Gaza, though we feel that the war will likely come to an end in the coming months.    

Middle East and North Africa: Country Risk Ratings

January 19, 2024 10:00 AM UTC

We provide country risk reviews for Middle East and North Africa including Saudi Arabia, Iran and Egypt.  

Saudi Iran Relations Help Cools Major Risk

January 17, 2024 8:00 PM UTC

Saudi Arabia less hostile relationship with Iran is curtailing the risk of a major war in the Middle East.  

Commodities Outlook: Economic Forces at Play

December 15, 2023 11:21 AM UTC

•    Oil prices in 2024 hinge on OPEC's production policies and global economic growth. We expect the agreed-upon 2.2 million bpd voluntary cuts to be implemented in Q1 2024, most of them extending into Q2 due to weak global growth. With Saudi Arabia supporting the cuts, we assign a 60% likeli

Markets: Middle East Tension and Less Fed Hawkishness

October 11, 2023 10:39 AM UTC

Bottom Line: The short squeeze on U.S. Treasuries could have somewhat further to run, especially if more Fed officials sound less hawkish and reduce the lingering odds of one final hike. However, the inconsistency between a soft landing narrative and an inverted yield curve means that 10yr yields ar

Attack on Israel Raises Middle East Tensions

October 9, 2023 9:45 AM UTC

Bottom Line: Retaliation by Israel is highly likely but it is uncertain what scale Israel will attack Gaza and Iran forces in Syria or whether Hezbollah will be drawn in. If the escalation is moderate, then the lasting impact on global market may not be major in the autumn. In contrast major escalat

April 14, 2023 7:43 AM UTC

The major development in the region is the China brokered deal for Iran and Saudi Arabia to re-establish relations, which has implications beyond the two countries.

MENA: Playing Both Sides

January 11, 2023 8:36 AM UTC

Bottom line: Most Middle East countries will likely try to stay neutral on the Ukraine war, as they seek to play both sides. Additionally, countries in the region will also be reluctant to be drawn into choosing sides in the strategic competition between the U.S. and China. This is all designed to