Commodities Outlook: Fragile Foundations

September 23, 2024 9:30 AM UTC

Oil prices in the short to medium term will be shaped by demand in China and the U.S. In particular, we expect weak data in China to continue weighting on oil prices in Q4 2024, with limited upside risks from supply-side developments. In 2025, demand growth will likely remain slow in the first half,

Commodities Outlook: Fundamentals Kick In

June 20, 2024 10:00 AM UTC

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is projected to end 2024 at USD82. We anticipate that the voluntary cuts introduced in November 2023 will likely be reversed during H1 2025 and not in Q4 2024, as initially communicated by OPEC+. The scenario is built on our expectation that demand will not increase suf

Country Risk in MENA

June 6, 2024 9:00 AM UTC

Country risk in Middle East and North Africa is impacted by the ongoing war in Gaza, alongside reviews of Saudi Arabia and Iran.     

Commodities Outlook: A Promising Horizon

March 21, 2024 11:00 AM UTC

Country Risk in MENA

March 8, 2024 11:00 AM UTC

Country risk in Middle East and North Africa is impacted by the ongoing war in Gaza.     

The war in Gaza and Country Risk in MENA

January 25, 2024 11:00 AM UTC

Country risk in Middle East and North Africa is impacted by the ongoing war in Gaza, though we feel that the war will likely come to an end in the coming months.    

Middle East and North Africa: Country Risk Ratings

January 19, 2024 10:00 AM UTC

We provide country risk reviews for Middle East and North Africa including Saudi Arabia, Iran and Egypt.  

Saudi Iran Relations Help Cools Major Risk

January 17, 2024 8:00 PM UTC

Saudi Arabia less hostile relationship with Iran is curtailing the risk of a major war in the Middle East.  

Commodities Outlook: Economic Forces at Play

December 15, 2023 11:21 AM UTC

•    Oil: Production Cuts and Demand DynamicsThe trajectory of oil prices will be significantly shaped by both the production policies to be adopted by OPEC and the global economic growth. In light of the voluntary cuts agreed upon by several countries within the cartel during the November 202

Markets: Middle East Tension and Less Fed Hawkishness

October 11, 2023 10:39 AM UTC

The human tragedy for all the families affected by the Israel/Hamas war is uppermost in people minds and they are in our thoughts at this terrible time. For markets, the Israel/Hamas war is fuelling Middle East tensions, with the traditional flight to quality bid for U.S. Treasuries. Less hawkish F

Attack on Israel Raises Middle East Tensions

October 9, 2023 9:45 AM UTC

Hamas attack on Israel has caused renewed Middle East tension, but how will the situation develop in the coming weeks?
Israel immediate aim is to reestablishes control of its own territory as Israeli forces continue to fight against Hamas gunmen to recapture its towns, which may take longer than Isra

April 14, 2023 7:43 AM UTC

Figure 1: Iran and Saudi Arabia GDP forecasts
Source: IMF 
Foreign ministers have already meet in Beijing in early April and Iran’s President Raisi is planning a trip to Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia’s motivation is to promote regional peace, which in turn will help foreign funding to the vision 203

MENA: Playing Both Sides

January 11, 2023 8:36 AM UTC

 Most Middle East Countries have stayed neutral on the Ukraine war except for Iran and Syria who supported Russia, but could geopolitics evolve and see countries taking sides? 
Figure 1: Proven Gas and Oil Reserves (% of Middle East Total)
Source: BP Statistical Year Book 2021 
Ukraine War
Iran suppl