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March 06, 2026
Preview: Due March 16 - U.S. February Industrial Production - Pause after a stronger January
March 6, 2026 6:47 PM UTC
We expect an unchanged February industrial production total to follow a strong 0.7% increase in January. For manufacturing we expect a 0.1% increase to follow a 0.6% rise in January. Despite the subdued February forecast, trend appears to be picking up.
Preview: Due March 13 - U.S. Preliminary (Second) Estimate Q4 GDP - Marginally stronger on housing
March 6, 2026 4:45 PM UTC
We expect a marginal upward revision to Q4 GDP to 1.5% in the preliminary (second) estimate from 1.4% in the advance (first) release, led by an upward revision to housing investment to a 1.7% rise from a 1.5% decline.
Preview: Due March 13 - U.S. January Personal Income and Spending - Core PCE Prices to outperform CPI
March 6, 2026 3:24 PM UTC
We expect January to see a strong core PCE price index increase of 0.4%, matching the rise seen in December. We expect personal income to increase by 0.6%, unusually outpacing personal spending, which we expect to rise by 0.4% for a third straight month.
U.S. February Employment - Decline follows an above trend January, trend near flat
March 6, 2026 2:24 PM UTC
February’s non-non-farm payroll with a 92k decline is well below expectations but needs to be seen alongside a 126k increase in January, and in the context of bad weather between the two surveys. Unemployment edged up to 4.4% from 4.3% though more positive are a 0.4% rise in average hourly earning
Asia Open - Overnight Highlights
March 6, 2026 12:00 AM UTC
EMERGING ASIA
EM currencies are trading mostly weaker against the greenback for strong haven bids grasp the market and sent USD flying. The biggest losers are KRW by 1.32%, THB 0.48%, SGD 0.41%, CNH 0.33%, CNY 0.21%, PHP & MYR 0.03%, HKD 0.2%; while the only winners are INR 0.6% and IDR & TWD 0.01%.
U
March 05, 2026
Preview: Due March 12 - U.S. January Trade Balance - May be stabilizing close to pre-tariff levels
March 5, 2026 3:25 PM UTC
We expect a January trade deficit of $69.0bn, which would be only a marginal correction from December’s $70.3bn which was the widest since July, though still well below the record $136.0bn deficit seen in March of 2025 shortly before the tariff announcement.
Preview: Due March 6 - U.S. February Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Not as strong as January, but still marginally positive
March 5, 2026 2:26 PM UTC
We expect February’s non-farm payroll to rise by 35k overall and by 50k in the private sector, both four month lows and significantly slower than January’s above trend respective gains of 130k and 172k. We expect unemployment to edge up to 4.4% from 4.3%, reversing a January dip, and average hou
Preview: Due March 6 - U.S. January Retail Sales - Weather adding to downside risk
March 5, 2026 2:17 PM UTC
We expect retail sales to see a weak month in January, falling by 0.7% overall, with declines of 0.4% ex auto and 0.2% ex auto and gasoline. Bad weather late in the month will contribute to the decline.
U.S. Initial Claims remain low, Some inflationary risk visible in Q4 Productivity and Costs report
March 5, 2026 1:54 PM UTC
Initial claims are unchanged at 213k, a recent bout of bad weather having no significant impact, contrasting late January when a spell of bad weather did coincide with a rise in initial claims. Q4 productivity data is solid but this is not eliminating inflationary pressures.
March 04, 2026
Preview: Due March 18 - U.S. February PPI - Ex food, energy and trade suggests trend at 0.3% per month
March 4, 2026 6:58 PM UTC
We expect PPI to rise by 0.3% in February, slower than January’s 0.5% and December’s 0.4%. Ex food and energy we expect a rise of 0.2% after a strong 0.8% January increase. Ex food, energy and trade however, we expect a fourth straight increase of 0.3%, which would signal where trend is.
Preview: Due March 16 - Canada February CPI - Softer in part due to year ago end of a sales tax holiday
March 4, 2026 6:09 PM UTC
We expect February Canadian CPI to slip to a 6-month and on-target low of 2.0% yr/yr (1.96% before rounding) from 2.3% (2.29% before rounding) in January, the slowing mainly due to the ending of a sales tax holiday a year ago, which lasted from mid-December of 2024 to mid-February of 2025). The Ba
U.S. February ISM Services strength contrasts slower S&P Services PMI
March 4, 2026 3:15 PM UTC
February’s ISM services index of 56.1 from 53.8 is the strongest since July 2022 and in a stark contrast to a weaker S and P services PMI of 51.7, revised down from 52.3 to its weakest level since April 2025. The true picture probably lies somewhere between the two surveys, but averaging the two a
U.S. February ADP Employment - A stronger month after sharply underperforming payrolls in January
March 4, 2026 1:37 PM UTC
February’s ADP’s estimate of private sector employment of 63k is stronger than the market expected though in part offset to a downward revision to January to 11k from 22k. The bounce in ADP data looks like a correction from a weak January which sharply underperformed the non-farm payroll.
Asia Open - Overnight Highlights
March 4, 2026 12:00 AM UTC
EMERGING ASIA
EM currencies are trading mostly weaker against the greenback for strong haven bids grasp the market and sent USD flying. The biggest losers are KRW by 3.31%, TWD 0.58%, MYR 0.48%, PHP 0.43%, CNH 0.27%, SGD 0.23%, CNY 0.19%; while the only winners are HKD 0.21% and IDR 0.02%.
USD/CNH is
March 03, 2026
Preview: Due March 11 - U.S. February CPI - A moderate gain, but inflation not yet defeated
March 3, 2026 7:30 PM UTC
We expect February’s CPI to increase by 0.3%, with a 0.2% increase ex food and energy. Before rounding we expect the gains will be similar, with the overall CPI rounded up from 0.26% and the core rounded down from 0.24%. CPI has slowed, but it is too soon for the Fed to declare victory.
Preview: Due March 4 - U.S. February ADP Employment - To pick up after underperforming payrolls in January
March 3, 2026 1:29 PM UTC
We expect a 60k increase in February’s ADP estimate for private sector employment, which would be a significant pick up from January’s 22k, which dramatically underperformed a 172k increase in January’s private sector non-farm payroll.
March 02, 2026
Preview: Due March 13 - U.S. January Durable Goods Orders - Aircraft to slip, but ex transport trend is positive
March 2, 2026 3:54 PM UTC
We expect January durable goods orders to see a second straight moderate decline, of 0.6%, as a November surge in aircraft orders continues to correct, but ex transport we expect continued underlying strength to be shown, with a rise of 0.7%.
U.S. February ISM Manufacturing - January surge largely sustained, prices bounce
March 2, 2026 3:25 PM UTC
February’s ISM manufacturing index at 52.4 is only marginally down from January’s 54.6 which was the highest August 2022. We now have two straight clearly positive numbers to follow two straight negatives, a sign that manufacturing activity is picking up in early 2026.