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October 02, 2026
Preview: Due October 16 - U.S. September Industrial Production - Rebound from a weak August
October 2, 2026 5:32 PM UTC
We expect a strong 1.0% increase in September industrial production after flat August with manufacturing up by 0.6% after a 0.3% August decline. This would restore a positive trend after a weak month.
FX Weekly Strategy: Asia, Oct 5-8
October 2, 2026 3:51 PM UTC
US yields put in a potential n/t weekly top as data plays to Fed lack of urgency
Euro still weighed on crosses until/unless politicians manage a convincing response; mkt tends to escalate into a forced crisis reaction
Fiscal saints may come back onto the agenda, so long as US bonds and risk steady at
Preview: Due October 5 - U.S. September ISM Services - Maintaining a fairly steady picture
October 2, 2026 3:12 PM UTC
While the S and P services PMI has accelerated sharply though Q3 after being quite subdued in Q1 and Q2, we expect the ISM services index to maintain a fairly steady profile that has been seen in the year to date, correcting lower to 55.0 from August’s 55.4, which was up from 54.1 in July.
Preview: Due October 20 - U.S. September Housing Starts and Permits - Mixed but on balance negative
October 2, 2026 2:58 PM UTC
We expect September housing starts to increase by 1.2% to 1290k after two straight declines while permits fall by 2.6% to 1370k, a second straight fall. On balance this would imply a slowing housing market.
U.S. September Employment - Trend looking subdued again
October 2, 2026 1:12 PM UTC
September’s non-farm payroll at 23k, 46k private, with negative back revisions, is weaker than expected and returns the picture to near flat after the stronger August. Average hourly earnings are slowing, up only 0.1%, though the rise in unemployment to 4.2% from 4.1% is on a rise in the labor for
U.S. September Employment - Trend looking subdued again
October 2, 2026 1:12 PM UTC
September’s non-farm payroll at 23k, 46k private, with negative back revisions, is weaker than expected and returns the picture to near flat after the stronger August. Average hourly earnings are slowing, up only 0.1%, though the rise in unemployment to 4.2% from 4.1% is on a rise in the labor for
Europe Summary and Highlights 2 Oct
October 2, 2026 10:05 AM UTC
Dollar breather into payrolls, euro still weighed on crosses
OAT-bund still wider, if on underperformance, political development become key next few days
CHF still profit-taking/short covering with switch in focus from carry to risk avoidance
Japan CPI comes in high, EZ follows national prints; payro
October 01, 2026
Preview: Due October 19 - Canada September CPI - Steady with slightly slower BoC core rates
October 1, 2026 7:20 PM UTC
Despite upward pressure on energy, we expect September Canadian CPI to remain at 3.0% yr/yr for a third straight month, with marginal slowing in the Bank of Canada’s three core rates.
Preview: Due October 15 - U.S. September PPI - Inflationary pressure still significant
October 1, 2026 4:52 PM UTC
We expect September PPI to increase by 0.6% overall led by energy with 0.3% gains in both core rates, ex food and energy and ex food, energy and trade. This will suggest inflationary pressures remain elevated, with little sign of slowing at the producer level.
Preview: Due October 15 - U.S. September PPI - Inflationary pressure still significant
October 1, 2026 4:52 PM UTC
We expect September PPI to increase by 0.6% overall led by energy with 0.3% gains in both core rates, ex food and energy and ex food, energy and trade. This will suggest inflationary pressures remain elevated, with little sign of slowing at the producer level.
U.S. September ISM Manufacturing - Prices regaining momentum
October 1, 2026 2:26 PM UTC
September’s ISM manufacturing index of 54.5 from 54.6 is almost unchanged and still healthy if remaining off July’s 55.3 high. Prices paid are accelerating, rising to 77.9 after two months at 71.1, though not yet back at April’s high of 84.6.
Preview: Due October 2 - U.S. September Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Healthy if less strong than August
October 1, 2026 1:06 PM UTC
We expect September’s non-farm payroll to rise by 100k both overall and in the private sector, slower than in August but still implying a healthy trend. We expect a 4.1% unemployment rate for a third straight month but a slightly slower 0.2% rise in average hourly earnings and a stable workweek. O
US Initial Claims remain very low, Continued Claims have fallen significantly
October 1, 2026 12:44 PM UTC
Initial claims at 197k after two weeks at 198k remain exceptionally low (last week was revised from 197k). Continued claims give a similar message, falling by 11k to 1.701m, extending a recent significant slide to reach their lowest level since 2023.
September 30, 2026
Preview: Due October 12 - U.S. September Existing Home Sales - Marginal correction higher, but trend is falling
September 30, 2026 7:27 PM UTC
We see scope for a marginal upward correction in September existing home sales, by 0.5% to 4.00m after three straight declines. However rising mortgage rates and Fed tightening are likely to bring renewed slippage in Q4.
Preview: Due October 6 - U.S. August Trade Balance - Advance goods data suggests widest post-tariff deficit
September 30, 2026 4:49 PM UTC
We expect an August trade deficit of $102.3bn, up sharply from $88.6bn in July and the widest deficit since the record $133.0bn seen in March 2025 ahead of the tariffs. August’s deficit will be larger than anything seen before Q1 2025.
Preview: Due October 1 - U.S. September ISM Manufacturing - Back to near the recent high
September 30, 2026 2:18 PM UTC
We September’s ISM manufacturing index to pick up to 55.5 from August’s 54.6, not quite reaching July’s 55.6 that was the highest since May 2022 but sustaining a clearly healthy picture.
U.S. GDP, Income, Spending and PCE Price revisions mostly encouraging, but Trade Deficit is rising
September 30, 2026 1:51 PM UTC
The final Q2 GDP report and August’s personal income and spending data are notable for historical revisions going back to 2021. The news in the revisions is generally encouraging, with upward revisions to GDP and real disposable income but downward revisions to PCE prices, led by non-market prices
U.S. GDP, Income, Spending and PCE Price revisions mostly encouraging, but Trade Deficit is rising
September 30, 2026 1:51 PM UTC
The final Q2 GDP report and August’s personal income and spending data are notable for historical revisions going back to 2021. The news in the revisions is generally encouraging, with upward revisions to GDP and real disposable income but downward revisions to PCE prices, led by non-market prices
U.S. September ADP Employment - Consistent with lower initial claims
September 30, 2026 12:30 PM UTC
September’s ADP estimate of private sector employment of 90k is on the firm side of expectations and a 3-month high for the ADP report. It leaves us comfortable with our 100k forecasts for both private sector and overall non-farm payrolls.
Europe Summary and Highlights 30 Sep
September 30, 2026 10:09 AM UTC
USD/JPY, yen crosses, dip on period-end yen demand, before paring
AUD still easing back, CPI slightly below mkt
GBP trying to base, upward GDP revision helps
EZ national CPI measures coming in high, supporting hike bets, though still skew to Dec over Sep
September 29, 2026
Preview: Due October 14 - U.S. September CPI - Stronger, but with a slower core rate
September 29, 2026 6:03 PM UTC
We expect a stronger rise of 0.6% in overall CPI in September, but a moderate 0.2% increase ex food and energy. Before rounding we expect the respective gains to be 0.57% and 0.19%. The latter would be a significant slowing from August’s 0.29%, but the former would be the strongest since April.
Preview: Due October 14 - U.S. September CPI - Stronger, but with a slower core rate
September 29, 2026 6:02 PM UTC
We expect a stronger rise of 0.6% in overall CPI in September, but a moderate 0.2% increase ex food and energy. Before rounding we expect the respective gains to be 0.57% and 0.19%. The latter would be a significant slowing from August’s 0.29%, but the former would be the strongest since April.
U.S. September Consumer Confidence down sharply, August Job Openings slip
September 29, 2026 2:33 PM UTC
September consumer confidence at 81.9 from 88.6 is the weakest since April 2014 with consumers worrying about prices, jobs and interest rates. August job openings fell by 256k to 7.079m, the weakest level since December 2025, though this signal is less negative than from the confidence data.
Preview: Due September 30 - U.S. August Advance Goods Trade Balance - Deficit rising again
September 29, 2026 1:03 PM UTC
We expect an advance August goods trade deficit of $122.7bn, a marginal increase from July’s $118.9bn which was the widest since the record pre-tariff deficit of $158.7bn seen in March 2025.
Canada July GDP - Pause after strong June, heading for a respectable Q3
September 29, 2026 12:52 PM UTC
July Canadian GDP is unchanged, in line with the preliminary indication given with June data. This marks a pause after a strong 0.4% increase in June, which was revised up from 0.3%. The preliminary estimate for August is for a moderate increase of 0.2%, leaving underlying momentum intact, but fresh
Preview: Due September 30 - U.S. August Personal Income and Spending - PCE prices to match CPI, watch for revisions
September 29, 2026 12:20 PM UTC
We expect August PCE price data to match the July CPI, rising by 0.4% overall and 0.3% ex food and energy. We expect a 0.5% increase in personal income, and a strong 0.9% increase in personal spending. The data should be watched not only for August changes, but also for historical revisions going ba
Preview: Due September 30 - U.S. Final (Third) Estimate Q2 GDP - Historical revisions due
September 29, 2026 12:12 PM UTC
Final Q2 GDP data is due on September 30 and we are not forecasting any revision from the preliminary 1.5% estimate. Of greater significance will be historical revisions for data going back through 2021. We will be watching particularly for any revisions to core PCE prices, personal income and spend
Preview: Due September 30 - U.S. September ADP Employment - Signs of improvement
September 29, 2026 12:03 PM UTC
We expect an 85k increase in September’s ADP estimate for private sector employment. The 4 week average from ADP’s weekly report for the week to September 5, the week before the monthly survey, was 20k and picking up. This implies a monthly increase slightly stronger than 80k.
September 28, 2026
Europe Summary and Highlights 28 Sep
September 28, 2026 10:09 AM UTC
Japan verbals, warning mkt to take yen view at face value, knocks USD/JPY back again
CHF remains on a weakening track on the back of uniquely low rates
EUR/GBP rejects resistance test again, market has got stretched short GBP
Oil back to nearer $110 than $100 as Trump rejects deal
FX Weekly Strategy: N America, Sep 28 - Oct 2
September 28, 2026 9:19 AM UTC
High profile US data, but would need something big to impact now after recent steep mkt adjustment
Dollar retains bullish posture overall, but a overstretched and consolidating/correcting steep run to levels on most pairs
Japan rolls out the verbals; BoE comments hint at dab in November
Round of CB mee
FX Weekly Strategy: Europe, Sep 28 - Oct 2
September 28, 2026 6:14 AM UTC
High profile US data, but would need something big to impact now after recent steep mkt adjustment
Dollar retains bullish posture overall, but a overstretched and consolidating/correcting steep run to levels on most pairs
Japan rolls out the verbals; BoE comments hint at dab in November
Round of CB mee
September 25, 2026
FX Weekly Strategy: Asia, Sep 28 - Oct 2
September 25, 2026 3:17 PM UTC
High profile US data, but would need something big to impact now after recent steep mkt adjustment
Dollar retains bullish posture overall, but a overstretched and consolidating/correcting steep run to levels on most pairs
Japan rolls out the verbals; BoE comments hint at dab in November
Round of CB mee
U.S. July Durable Goods Orders - Some loss of momentum in Q3 to date
September 25, 2026 12:53 PM UTC
August durable goods orders are unchanged, a little stronger than expected overall, but the ex transport gain of 0.3% is weaker than expected and even with July revised up to 0.7% from 0.4% Q3 data to data has been slower than Q2’s.
U.S. July Durable Goods Orders - Some loss of momentum in Q3 to date
September 25, 2026 12:50 PM UTC
August durable goods orders are unchanged, a little stronger than expected overall, but the ex transport gain of 0.3% is weaker than expected and even with July revised up to 0.7% from 0.4% Q3 data to data has been slower than Q2’s.
Europe Summary and Highlights 25 Sep
September 25, 2026 10:02 AM UTC
USD/JPY trims, FinMIn Katayama advertises Trump's concern at yen weakness
Bonds, dollar steady in the morning after rapid run
Cable offered touch of support from recent BoE comments lifting Nov hike odds
Oil trims as US-Iran talks continue, market not overly convinced of anything soon