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October 07, 2025
October 06, 2025
U.S. Q3 GDP heading for a rise of 2.3%, led by consumer spending and business investment
October 6, 2025 3:23 PM UTC
With the US government shutdown not looking set for a quick resolution, it is a good time to take a fresh look at Q3 GDP, which is scheduled for October 30, the day after the FOMC next meets, though the release could be delayed even if the shutdown is over by then. We now look for an increase of 2.3
October 05, 2025
October 03, 2025
U.S. September ISM Services - Back to neutral, prices still firm
October 3, 2025 2:22 PM UTC
September’s ISM services index has slipped back to a neutral 50.0 after a bounce to 52.0 in August from July’s near neutral 50.1 . We had suspected that August data had been flattered by seasonal adjustments but seasonal adjustments do not fully explain the recent moves.
October 02, 2025
Preview: Due October 3 - U.S. September ISM Services - August bounce was flattered by seasonal adjustments
October 2, 2025 3:45 PM UTC
We expect slippage in September’s ISM services index to 51.0 from 52.0, still above the levels seen in May, June and July, but implying a subdued pace of economic growth.
Preview: Due October 16 (dependent on shutdown ending) - U.S. September Retail Sales - Still growing, if more on prices than volumes
October 2, 2025 12:53 PM UTC
We expect a third straight 0.6% increase in retail sales in September, with slightly over half of the increase coming in prices, leaving only moderate growth in real terms. We also expect 0.6% increase ex autos but a slightly weaker 0.5% increase ex autos and gasoline.
October 01, 2025
Preview: Due October 16 (dependent on shutdown ending) - U.S. Setember PPI - Closer to trend after strong July and weak August
October 1, 2025 7:36 PM UTC
We expect September PPI to rise by 0.4% overall and 0.3% ex food and energy, with the latter gain coming near the average of a 0.7% bounce in July that was corrected by a 0.1% decline in August. Ex food, energy and trade we expect a moderate 0.2% increase after gains of 0.3% in August and 0.6% in Ju
Preview: Due October 15 (dependent on shutdown ending) - U.S. September CPI - Firm but a little less so in core rate
October 1, 2025 6:29 PM UTC
We expect September CPI to increase by 0.4% overall and by 0.3% ex food and energy, matching August’s outcomes after rounding, though before rounding we expect overall CPI to be rounded down from 0.425%, and the core rate to be rounded up from 0.28%, contrasting August data when headline CPI was r
U.S. September ISM Manufacturing - Slightly firmer but a subdued picture
October 1, 2025 2:16 PM UTC
September’s ISM manufacturing index of 49.1 is up from August’s 48.7 and marginally beats 49.0 readings in June and March to record its highest reading since February. However there remains little direction to underlying trend.
U.S. September ADP Employment declines, initial claims and payroll releases face delay
October 1, 2025 12:48 PM UTC
ADP’s September estimate of employment is weaker than expected with a 32k decline, extending a recent slowing in trend. Adding to the negative message, August was revised to a 3k decline from a 54k rise. Given the government shutdown starting today this may be the last look at the labor market we
FX Daily Strategy: N America, Oct 1
October 1, 2025 8:55 AM UTC
US government shutdown looks set to start on October 1
Typically, shutdown is seen as negative for USD/JPY
ADP data to take on higher profile if official employment data not being released due to shutdown
EUR/JPY also looks vulnerable if risk sentiment weakens
FX Daily Strategy: Europe, Oct 1
October 1, 2025 4:31 AM UTC
US government shutdown looks set to start on October 1
Typically, shutdown is seen as negative for USD/JPY
ADP data to take on higher profile if official employment data not being released due to shutdown
EUR/JPY also looks vulnerable if risk sentiment weakens