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November 21, 2025
Canada September retail sales - A subdued Q3, October seen unchanged
November 21, 2025 3:22 PM UTC
Canadian retail sales with a 0.7% decline were as the preliminary indicator released with August report had suggested, but ex auto sales exceeded expectations with a rise of 0.2%. Still, Q3 is negative in real terms, and October’s preliminary indicator is unchanged, suggesting a continued subdued
U.S. November S&P PMIs - Still healthy
November 21, 2025 3:01 PM UTC
November’s preliminary S and P PMIs both remain at healthy levels, manufacturing modestly slower at 51.9 from 52.5 but still comfortably positive, while services have unexpectedly seen a modest increase to 55.0 from 54.8. The composite increased to 54.8 from 54.6.
Preview: Due December 5 - Canada November Employment - Correcting from a strong October
November 21, 2025 2:34 PM UTC
Canadian employment data has been volatile in recent months. Underlying trend still seems modestly positive, but after two strong gains in excess of 60k we expect a modest decline of 5k in November. This would lift unemployment to 7.0% from 6.9% in October, still below the 7.1% seen in August and Se
November 20, 2025
Preview: Due November 21 - U.S. November S&P PMIs - Modest corrections lower, still healthy
November 20, 2025 4:05 PM UTC
We expect November’s S and P PMIs to both see modest slippage, manufacturing to 52.0 from 52.5 and services to 54.5 from 54.8 but these will be more corrections from October improvements than any suggestion of underlying weakness. The levels will remain healthy.
U.S. October Existing Home Sales - Starting to gain momentum
November 20, 2025 3:16 PM UTC
A 1.2% rise in October existing home sales is in line with other private sector surveys (NAHB, MBA and pending home sales) suggesting some revival in the housing market as the Fed resumes easing. With the scale of future easing uncertain the housing sector outlook is too.
U.S. Initial Claims stable but Continued Claims moving higher
November 20, 2025 2:45 PM UTC
Today we saw the non-farm payroll for September, as well as eight weeks of initial claims that take us to the survey week for November’s non-farm payroll. Initial claims remain low, though continued claims have been rising in recent weeks, hinting at downside risks for non-farm payrolls in October
U.S. September Employment - Case for a December easing looks a little weaker
November 20, 2025 2:04 PM UTC
September’s non-farm payroll will be the last released before the December 10 FOMC meeting and is surprisingly firm at 119k, albeit with 33k in negative revisions. A rise in unemployment to 4.4% from 4.3% and a 0.2% rise in average hourly earnings provide only marginal offsets to the headline. Nov
November 19, 2025
Preview: Due November 26 - U.S. September Durable Goods Orders - Trend modestly positive
November 19, 2025 4:00 PM UTC
We expect September durable goods orders to increase by 1.4% with a 0.5% increase ex transport, a fifth straight modest rise in the latter showing a clearly if not strongly positive trend.
Preview: Due November 20 - U.S. October Existing Home Sales - Responding to lower mortgage rates
November 19, 2025 3:24 PM UTC
We expect October existing home sales to increase by 1.0% to 4.10m, extending a 1.5% rise in September to reach the highest level since February, as the housing market gets support from lower mortgage rates as Fed easing resumes.
Preview: Due November 20 - U.S. September Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Still subdued, but slightly stronger than in August
November 19, 2025 2:38 PM UTC
We expect September’s non-farm payroll, delayed from October 3, to show another subdued rise, of 45k, with 50k in the private sector, but marginally stronger than July’s respective gains of 22k and 38k. We expect unemployment to slip to 4.2% from 4.3% on a fall in the labor force, while averag
FX Daily Strategy: N America, November 19th
November 19, 2025 10:05 AM UTC
UK CPI data to keep some downward pressure on GBP
GBP looks set for a steady decline against the EUR
JPY decline is slow but inexorable – official Japanese action likely necessary to halt decline
EUR/CHF extending bounce but upside looks quite limited
FX Daily Strategy: Europe, November 19th
November 19, 2025 4:30 AM UTC
UK CPI data to keep some downward pressure on GBP
GBP looks set for a steady decline against the EUR
JPY decline is slow but inexorable – official Japanese action likely necessary to halt decline
EUR/CHF extending bounce but upside looks quite limited
November 18, 2025
FX Daily Strategy: Asia, November 19th
November 18, 2025 10:00 PM UTC
UK CPI data to keep some downward pressure on GBP
GBP looks set for a steady decline against the EUR
JPY decline is slow but inexorable – official Japanese action likely necessary to halt decline
EUR/CHF extending bounce but upside looks quite limited
FX Daily Strategy: APAC, November 19th
November 18, 2025 3:31 PM UTC
UK CPI data to keep some downward pressure on GBP
GBP looks set for a steady decline against the EUR
JPY decline is slow but inexorable – official Japanese action likely necessary to halt decline
EUR/CHF extending bounce but upside looks quite limited
U.S. November NAHB Homebuilders Index - Bounce extended but 6-month view corrects lower
November 18, 2025 3:09 PM UTC
November’s NAHB homebuilders’ index of 38 has marginally extended a 5-point October bounce and remains at its highest level since April. Details show increasing strength in current month data but a correction lower in the 6-month view.
Preview: Due November 19 - U.S. August Trade Balance - Deficit to reverse most of a July increase
November 18, 2025 2:10 PM UTC
We expect an August trade deficit of $60.2bn, down from $78.3bn in July but slightly wider than June’s $59.1bn deficit that was the narrowest since March 2023. The deficit remains in a correction from elevated pre-tariff levels that brought a record high of $136.4bn in March. This release was
Europe Summary and Highlights 18 November
November 18, 2025 11:08 AM UTC
Then USD was mixed through the European morning, making some gains against the European currencies and the JPY, but falling back against the commodity currencies, reflecting a mild risk positive tone as equities edged back up after overnight losses.
November 17, 2025
Preview: Due November 28 - Canada Q3/September GDP - September rebound to keep Q3 positive
November 17, 2025 6:58 PM UTC
We expect Q3 Canadian GDP to increase by 0.6% annualized, marginally stronger than a 0.5% estimate made by the Bank of Canada with October’s Monetary Policy report, with September GDP to increase by 0.2% on the month, slightly stronger than a preliminary estimate of 0.1% made with August’s data.
U.S. August Construction Spending - Housing trend turning positive
November 17, 2025 3:15 PM UTC
August construction spending, originally scheduled to be released in early October, has now been released, and is on the firm side of expectations, August marginally with a 0.2% increase, but July was revised to a 0.2% rise from -0.1% and June significantly to a 0.5% rise from a 0.4% decline.
U.S. November Empire State Manufacturing Survey - Activity sees 12 month high, prices slower but still firm
November 17, 2025 2:21 PM UTC
November’s Empire State manufacturing index at a positive 18.7 from 10.7 is the strongest in twelve months, and the third healthy number in four months, though with November 2024 strength at 20.7 not having persisted we would treat the latest strength with a degree of caution.