Foreign Exchange
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June 12, 2026
FX Weekly Strategy: Asia, Jun 15-19
June 12, 2026 9:00 PM UTC
Outcome on Iran pivotal and will colour perceptions of other key events
Dollar pairs hold off break levels, regain on kneejerk if deal sealed, failure back otherwise
Fed packs in many layers of uncertainty, scope for volatility; mkt may assume 'dots' will be conservative and Iran-contingent
BoJ walks
FX Weekly Strategy: APAC, Jun 15-19
June 12, 2026 4:37 PM UTC
Outcome on Iran pivotal and will colour perceptions of other key events
Dollar pairs hold off break levels, regain on kneejerk if deal sealed, failure back otherwise
Fed packs in many layers of uncertainty, scope for volatility; mkt may assume 'dots' will be conservative and Iran-contingent
BoJ walks
U.S. Preliminary June Michigan CSI - Rebounds from a very weak May final as inflation expectations correct lower
June 12, 2026 2:43 PM UTC
The preliminary June Michigan CSI at 48.9 has seen a surprising bounce from May’s final and record low of 44.8 but is not far off May’s preliminary of 48.2. Gasoline prices remain high but have slipped from May’s highs though the dip in May’s final now looks overstated.
June 11, 2026
Preview: Due June 24 - U.S. Q1 Current Account - Deficit showing signs of stabilizing
June 11, 2026 7:25 PM UTC
We expect a Q1 US current account deficit of $206.8bn, up from $190.7bn in Q4 which would be the first increase in the deficit since the record pre-tariff deficit of $438.3bn in Q1 2025. The deterioration from Q4 could however be modest with trade data suggesting that Q4’s deficit will be revised
U.S. May PPI - Mostly strong, Initial Claims hinting at slower payroll growth in June
June 11, 2026 1:11 PM UTC
While May’s PPI is mixed, it is on balance a stronger than expected figure with strength overall and ex food, energy and trade outweighing a slightly softer than expected ex food and energy outcome, on a correction lower in trade. Initial claims are hinting June’s payroll will be less strong tha
Asia Summary and Highlights 11 June
June 11, 2026 6:12 AM UTC
Asia Session
We are still seeing missiles flying in the Middle East in the later half of the week. Trump's optimistic words earlier in the week seems to be empty air as the latest development feels more than escalation than a deal closing soon. U.S. major equity indexes are recouping partial overnigh
June 10, 2026
Preview: Due June 11 - U.S. May PPI - Strong if less so than in April
June 10, 2026 1:17 PM UTC
We expect PPI to rise by 0.8% overall in May, strong if slower than April’s 1.4% surge, with a 0.4% rise ex food and energy, significantly slower than a 1.0% increase in April. Ex food, energy and trade however we expect only a modest slowing, to 0.5% in May from 0.6% in April.
U.S. May CPI - Surprising fall in transport services despite continued gains in air fares
June 10, 2026 1:08 PM UTC
May CPI is in line with expectations at 0.5% overall but the core rate ex food and energy was softer than expected at 0.2%, with the rise before rousing being 0.208%. The most surprising restraint on the data was a 0.6% fall in transportation services, despite continued gains in air fares.
Europe Summary and Highlights 10 Jun
June 10, 2026 10:01 AM UTC
Oil still checked even with exchanges, hope pinned on nuclear detail progress
Risk markets still seeing some pressure, though Nasdaq remains off yesterday's spike low
Some NOK support from CPI, but Norges Bank ahead of the curve
FX market remains in cautious n/t consolidation, US CPI next focus
June 09, 2026
U.S. May Existing Home Sales - Resilient to headwinds
June 9, 2026 2:18 PM UTC
May existing home sales have seen a stronger than expected 3.2% increase to 4.17m, taking the level to the highest since December. This shows resilience to higher mortgage rates and fading hopes for Fed easing, but it follows three straight gains in pending home sales after they hit a record low in
Preview: Due June 10 - U.S. May CPI - Energy and air fares to lead
June 9, 2026 1:39 PM UTC
We expect May CPI to increase by 0.5% overall and 0.3% ex food and energy, with respective gains before rounding being 0.527% and 0.253%, meaning that the core rate is a close call between 0.2% and 0.3% before rounding. The extent of the energy feed through to air fares may be the swing factor in th
April US trade deficit shows a fairly stable picture, Canada trade balance shows a stronger surplus
June 9, 2026 1:18 PM UTC
April’s US trade deficit of $55.9bn is a little narrower than the market expected but less of an improvement from March than expected, with March’s deficit being revised lower, to $56.6bn from $60.3bn. The deficit has not changed much over the last four months, and appears to be stabilizing at a
June 08, 2026
Preview: Due June 17 - U.S. May Retail Sales - Consumers vulnerable to a pull back
June 8, 2026 1:28 PM UTC
We expect May retail sales to increase by 0.3% both overall and ex autos, but with a 0.1% decline ex autos and gasoline, which would suggest that consumers are starting to pull back as elevated gasoline prices increasingly weigh on real disposable income.
Preview: Due June 9 - U.S. May Existing Home Sales - Some positive signals
June 8, 2026 12:31 PM UTC
We expect May existing home sales to increase by 2.0% to 4.10m, extending a marginal 0.2% increase in April but still not fully reversing March’s 2.9% decline. This would bring the first yr/yr increase since October 2025, by 1.5%, following a flat April.
Preview: Due June 9 - U.S. April Trade Balance - Advance goods data points to a lower deficit
June 8, 2026 12:18 PM UTC
We expect an April trade deficit of $55.5bn, down from $60.3bn in March though March’s deficit is likely to be revised lower, probably by around $2.0bn. The deficit appears to be stabilizing slightly below $60bn per month, which compares to around $75bn before Trump took office and implemented dra