FX Daily Strategy: Asia, July 26th

July 25, 2024 9:00 PM UTC

FX market dominated by fluctuating risk sentiment
Much of the JPY gain reflects a big overshoot since early May, but JPY remains undervalued
Risk positive currencies may now be oversold, notably NOK
Tokyo CPI may determine risk tone on Friday

North American Summary and Highlights 25 July

July 25, 2024 7:47 PM UTC

Overview - The USD was lifted by strong US GDP data, but the move was sustained only on USD/JPY.  

FX Daily Strategy: APAC, July 26th

July 25, 2024 2:56 PM UTC

FX market dominated by fluctuating risk sentiment
Much of the JPY gain reflects a big overshoot since early May, but JPY remains undervalued
Risk positive currencies may now be oversold, notably NOK
Tokyo CPI may determine risk tone on Friday

Psychology for major markets July 25th

July 25, 2024 10:14 AM UTC

JPY firm as risk sentiment weakens and carry trades unwind

FX Daily Strategy: N America, July 25th

July 25, 2024 9:13 AM UTC

Focus on US Q2 GDP
Growth to stay sub-trend, but limited impact seen
European surveys may weigh on EUR

Asia Summary and Highlights 25 July

July 25, 2024 4:59 AM UTC

USD/JPY down another percent as risk reverse
People's Bank of China reduces 1 year Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) rate to 2.3%

FX Daily Strategy: Asia, July 25th

July 24, 2024 9:00 PM UTC

Focus on US Q2 GDP
Growth to stay sub-trend, but limited impact seen
European surveys may weigh on EUR
SEK weakness starting to look stretched

North American Summary and Highlights 24 July

July 24, 2024 7:57 PM UTC

Overview - USD/JPY fell but ended off its lows as the USD was supported by rising long end yields as the UST curve steepened.  

FX Daily Strategy: APAC, July 25th

July 24, 2024 3:03 PM UTC

Focus on US Q2 GDP
Growth to stay sub-trend, but limited impact seen
European surveys may weigh on EUR
SEK weakness starting to look stretched

Psychology for major markets July 24th

July 24, 2024 10:11 AM UTC

JPY firm, EUR under pressure after PMI

FX Daily Strategy: N America, July 24th

July 24, 2024 9:02 AM UTC

PMIs the main focus on Wednesday
USD strength can extend if relative US PMI strength continues
EUR and GBP may both be vulnerable against the JPY
CAD has upside scope with the market overpricing the risks of a BoC rate cut

Asia Summary and Highlights 24 July

July 24, 2024 4:56 AM UTC

Japan July flash Manufacturing PMI 49.2, Services PMI  53.9 
JPY up across the board, USD is broadly stronger against riskier currencies

FX Daily Strategy: Asia, July 24th

July 23, 2024 9:00 PM UTC

PMIs the main focus on Wednesday
USD strength can extend if relative US PMI strength continues
EUR and GBP may both be vulnerable against the JPY
CAD has upside scope with the market overpricing the risks of a BoC rate cut

North American Summary and Highlights 23 July

July 23, 2024 7:48 PM UTC

Overview - While equities were quiet there was a risk negative tone to FX trading, with the JPY stronger and the commodity currencies weaker.  

FX Daily Strategy: APAC, July 24th

July 23, 2024 2:51 PM UTC

PMIs the main focus on Wednesday
USD strength can extend if relative US PMI strength continues
EUR and GBP may both be vulnerable against the JPY
CAD has upside scope with the market overpricing the risks of a BoC rate cut

Psychology for major markets July 23rd

July 23, 2024 10:01 AM UTC

JPY firm, risk negative tone in FX

FX Daily Strategy: N America, July 23rd

July 23, 2024 9:01 AM UTC

EUR/USD looks stuck near 1.09 for now, but some USD upside risk
JPY upside favoured, USD/JPY upside capped
GBP optimism rising, but positioning might be vulnerable

Asia Summary and Highlights 23 July

July 23, 2024 4:49 AM UTC

USD/JPY dipped another half a percent without catalyst 
Vice President Harris has secured enough delegates

FX Daily Strategy: Asia, July 23rd

July 22, 2024 9:00 PM UTC

EUR/USD looks stuck near 1.09 for now, but some USD upside risk
JPY upside favoured, USD/JPY upside capped
GBP optimism rising, but positioning might be vulnerable

North American Summary and Highlights 22 July

July 22, 2024 7:37 PM UTC

Overview - In mostly quiet trade the JPY made early gains which were partially corrected later in the day.  

FX Daily Strategy: APAC, July 23rd

July 22, 2024 3:15 PM UTC

EUR/USD looks stuck near 1.09 for now, but some USD upside risk
JPY upside favoured, USD/JPY upside capped
GBP optimism rising, but positioning might be vulnerable

Psychology for major markets July 22nd

July 22, 2024 10:01 AM UTC

EUR steady, JPY firm.

FX Weekly Strategy: July 22nd-26th

July 22, 2024 9:05 AM UTC

CAD upside risks on BoC
Some USD downside risks on US GDP
JPY may have upside scope on the crosses
PMIs a focus for European currencies

IMM Commitment of Traders Reports w/e July 16th

July 22, 2024 7:04 AM UTC

Net long GBP positioning extends further to new record. CHF and CAD shorts also make new highs. 

Asia Summary and Highlights 22 July

July 22, 2024 4:59 AM UTC

Joe Biden announced his decision to pull out from the presidential race and endorses Kamala Harris 
A series of easing from PBoC

FX Weekly Strategy: Europe, July 22nd-26th

July 22, 2024 4:27 AM UTC

CAD upside risks on BoC
Some USD downside risks on US GDP
JPY may have upside scope on the crosses
PMIs a focus for European currencies

FX Weekly Strategy: Asia, July 22nd-26th

July 21, 2024 9:00 PM UTC

CAD upside risks on BoC
Some USD downside risks on US GDP
JPY may have upside scope on the crosses
PMIs a focus for European currencies

FX Weekly Strategy: APAC, July 22nd-26th

July 21, 2024 5:00 PM UTC

CAD upside risks on BoC
Some USD downside risks on US GDP
JPY may have upside scope on the crosses
PMIs a focus for European currencies

North American Summary and Highlights 19 July

July 19, 2024 7:28 PM UTC

Overview - It was a quiet day for FX though GBP and CAD both saw some losses after weak retail sales data.  

FX Weekly Strategy: July 22nd-26th

July 19, 2024 2:50 PM UTC

CAD upside risks on BoC
Some USD downside risks on US GDP
JPY may have upside scope on the crosses
PMIs a focus for European currencies

Psychology for major markets July 19th

July 19, 2024 10:18 AM UTC

USD drifting higher with equities still on the defensive.  

FX Daily Strategy: N America, July 19th

July 19, 2024 9:00 AM UTC

JPY risks remain on the upside given cheapness and Trump preference for a weaker USD
GBP may slip on retail sales

Asia Summary and Highlights 19 July

July 19, 2024 5:01 AM UTC

Japan June National Headline CPI 2.8% y/y, ex fresh food 2.6%, ex fresh food and energy 2.2%

FX Daily Strategy: Europe, July 19th

July 19, 2024 4:59 AM UTC

JPY focus on Japan CPI
JPY risks remain on the upside given cheapness and Trump preference for a weaker USD
GBP may slip on retail sales

FX Daily Strategy: Asia, July 19th

July 18, 2024 9:00 PM UTC

JPY focus on Japan CPI
JPY risks remain on the upside given cheapness and Trump preference for a weaker USD
GBP may slip on retail sales

North American Summary and Highlights 18 July

July 18, 2024 7:44 PM UTC

Overview - The ECB and US data got a modest reaction but the USD subsequently built broad based gains.  

FX Daily Strategy: APAC, July 19th

July 18, 2024 3:11 PM UTC

JPY focus on Japan CPI
JPY risks remain on the upside given cheapness and Trump preference for a weaker USD
GBP may slip on retail sales

Psychology for major markets July 18th

July 18, 2024 10:07 AM UTC

USD remains slightly offered ahead of the ECB meeting

FX Daily Strategy: N America, July 18th

July 18, 2024 9:09 AM UTC

ECB Policy to Pause Amid Mixed Data
GBP steady after UK labour market data
AUD traded higher after strong employment report

Asia Summary and Highlights 18 July

July 18, 2024 5:35 AM UTC

Japan June exports +5.4% y/y and imports +3.2% y/y 
Australian June headline employment change 50.2k, unemployment rate 4.1% and participation rate 66.9%.