Commodities-Commentary
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August 26, 2024
Israel/Hezbollah War Risks
August 26, 2024 8:02 AM UTC
The probability of an Israel/Hezbollah war in the next 12 months has move up from low to modest probability, but would be a high impact event geopolitically and for global markets. For global markets, a distinction would be drawn between an Israel/Hezbollah war that did not involve Iran/U.S. and o
June 20, 2024
Commodities Outlook: Fundamentals Kick In
June 20, 2024 10:00 AM UTC
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is projected to end 2024 at USD82. We anticipate that the voluntary cuts introduced in November 2023 will likely be reversed during H1 2025 and not in Q4 2024, as initially communicated by OPEC+. The scenario is built on our expectation that demand will not increase suf
December 15, 2023
Commodities Outlook: Economic Forces at Play
December 15, 2023 11:21 AM UTC
• Oil: Production Cuts and Demand DynamicsThe trajectory of oil prices will be significantly shaped by both the production policies to be adopted by OPEC and the global economic growth. In light of the voluntary cuts agreed upon by several countries within the cartel during the November 202
September 27, 2023
Commodities Outlook: Rising Tides
September 27, 2023 8:26 AM UTC
Oil: Shifting Dynamics in 2024
Delving into next year’s oil outlook, we expect Saudi Arabia’s voluntary cuts and Russia’s export curbs to be lifted during the first quarter of 2024. Likewise, in our baseline scenario, we consider the possibility of OPEC+ to slowly start reversing its production
August 07, 2023
Navigating the Path to Peace: Saudi Talks on Ukraine-Russia Conflict
August 7, 2023 10:59 AM UTC
Saudi plays peacemaker
The goal of the meeting in Jeddah this weekend was to discuss and potentially agree upon essential principles that could pave the way for a peaceful end to the conflict in Europe. Saudi brought together several stakeholders with diverse interests and perspectives on the conflic
June 20, 2023
Commodities Outlook: Navigating Uncertainty
June 20, 2023 8:37 AM UTC
Figure 1: U.S. Crude Oil Stocks (Million Barrels)
Source: EIA / Continuum Economics
Oil: Negative Sentiments Leading the Market
Demand concerns are the leading factor influencing short-term projections of oil prices. We see three determinants of a downward revision in oil consumption for the second ha
April 14, 2023
MENA and The Iran/Saudi Arabia Agreement
April 14, 2023 7:43 AM UTC
Figure 1: Iran and Saudi Arabia GDP forecasts
Source: IMF
Foreign ministers have already meet in Beijing in early April and Iran’s President Raisi is planning a trip to Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia’s motivation is to promote regional peace, which in turn will help foreign funding to the vision 203
March 24, 2023
Commodities Outlook: Slowdown Then Recovery
March 24, 2023 8:37 AM UTC
Figure 1: OECD Crude Oil and Other Liquid Inventories (Mln Barrels per Day)
Source: IEA
Oil: Demand but Then Supply Worries
The factors affecting the 2023 forecast for global oil demand have become more volatile over the last three months. This volatility is due to a combination of factors, includi
January 11, 2023
MENA: Playing Both Sides
January 11, 2023 8:36 AM UTC
Most Middle East Countries have stayed neutral on the Ukraine war except for Iran and Syria who supported Russia, but could geopolitics evolve and see countries taking sides?
Figure 1: Proven Gas and Oil Reserves (% of Middle East Total)
Source: BP Statistical Year Book 2021
Ukraine War
Iran suppl
January 06, 2023
Oil: Financial Bears and Physical Bulls
January 6, 2023 11:16 AM UTC
Figure 1: Non Commercial Net Longs for WTI (000)
Source: Bloomberg/Continuum Economics
Bears Demand Concerns
Financial market participants are have been selling oil, as part of the concerns on the global economy slowdown for 2023 and expectations that it will hit oil demand. CFTC Net longs from non-c