Commodities-Commentary
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September 30, 2024
Israel/Hezbollah Scenarios
September 30, 2024 9:26 AM UTC
The most likely scenarios between Israel and Hezbollah are Israel/Hezbollah intermittent attacks/counterattacks (40%) or significant ground invasion Southern Lebanon (45%). Both would be difficult in human terms and raise geopolitical tensions, but are unlikely to cause a lasting impact on global
September 23, 2024
Commodities Outlook: Fragile Foundations
September 23, 2024 9:30 AM UTC
Oil prices in the short to medium term will be shaped by demand in China and the U.S. In particular, we expect weak data in China to continue weighting on oil prices in Q4 2024, with limited upside risks from supply-side developments. In 2025, demand growth will likely remain slow in the first half,
August 26, 2024
Israel/Hezbollah War Risks
August 26, 2024 8:02 AM UTC
The probability of an Israel/Hezbollah war in the next 12 months has move up from low to modest probability, but would be a high impact event geopolitically and for global markets. For global markets, a distinction would be drawn between an Israel/Hezbollah war that did not involve Iran/U.S. and o
June 20, 2024
Commodities Outlook: Fundamentals Kick In
June 20, 2024 10:00 AM UTC
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is projected to end 2024 at USD82. We anticipate that the voluntary cuts introduced in November 2023 will likely be reversed during H1 2025 and not in Q4 2024, as initially communicated by OPEC+. The scenario is built on our expectation that demand will not increase suf
December 15, 2023
Commodities Outlook: Economic Forces at Play
December 15, 2023 11:21 AM UTC
• Oil prices in 2024 hinge on OPEC's production policies and global economic growth. We expect the agreed-upon 2.2 million bpd voluntary cuts to be implemented in Q1 2024, most of them extending into Q2 due to weak global growth. With Saudi Arabia supporting the cuts, we assign a 60% likeli
August 07, 2023
Navigating the Path to Peace: Saudi Talks on Ukraine-Russia Conflict
August 7, 2023 10:59 AM UTC
The ongoing conflict between Ukraine and Russia has been a global concern, with efforts continuously being made to find a peaceful resolution. In a recent development, Saudi Arabia hosted a summit in Jeddah last week that brought together top officials from around 40 countries, including key players
April 14, 2023
January 11, 2023
MENA: Playing Both Sides
January 11, 2023 8:36 AM UTC
Bottom line: Most Middle East countries will likely try to stay neutral on the Ukraine war, as they seek to play both sides. Additionally, countries in the region will also be reluctant to be drawn into choosing sides in the strategic competition between the U.S. and China. This is all designed to
