Indonesia: PDI-P To Maintain Power and Policies

Indonesia, the world's fourth-most populous nation, is poised for a significant political transition as President Joko Widodo, widely known as Jokowi, is set to step down in early-2024 after a presidential election.  Looking ahead to the upcoming legislative and presidential elections scheduled for February 14, 2024, the centre-left Indonesian Democratic Party-Struggle (PDI-P) is expected to maintain its position as the largest single party in the House of People's Representatives (DPR). With 128 seats, the PDI-P enjoys a consistent lead in public surveys over rivals such as Golkar (85 seats) and Gerindra (78 seats). The electoral landscape is marked by strong patronage networks, which mitigate significant swings in party support.

As a consequence, the political landscape remains tense and divided. The anticipated successor is Prabowo Subianto, the current defense minister representing the Great Indonesia Movement Party (Gerindra).  A tie-up between Prabowo and Gibran Rakabuming Raka, Jokowi's eldest son, is expected to result in victory for the former. This alliance, coupled with endorsements from Gerindra and support from four out of seven parties in the DPR, positions Prabowo as a formidable contender.

As the political baton is passed, the landscape is expected to retain stability, with Prabowo likely adopting Jokowi's strategy of incorporating politicians from diverse parties into the administration. However, opinion polls suggest that the election will be tight and other candidates such as PDI-P's presidential candidate Ganjar Pranowo also have a high probability of succeeding. It is noteworthy that none of the candidates show any radical difference from the current president’s policy-making perspective suggesting that political stability will sustain in the aftermath of the elections. Meanwhile, given the expectation of Prabowo succeeding, despite potential inefficiencies, he is likely to continue Jokowi's policies, including the promotion of downstream processing industries. Factors such as easing consumer price inflation and steady employment growth are predicted to limit major public protests in the near future. However, the closely contested presidential election in 2024 could trigger unrest among supporters of the losing candidate, echoing the protests following the 2019 election.

Indonesia's foreign policy aims for positive relations with a diverse range of countries. Striking a balance and avoiding significant alignment with any particular bloc, Indonesia may experience minor frictions, especially concerning territorial disputes between ASEAN and China. Notably, relations between Indonesia and Malaysia are anticipated to improve following the resolution of a long-standing maritime border dispute.