Indonesia's Elections: Prabowo Subianto Emerges as Front-Runner

 Indonesia recently held its national elections on February 14th, a significant event determining the next president, vice-president, and the legislative body. While the official results are slated for mid-March, preliminary sample counts indicate a substantial lead for Prabowo Subianto, the incumbent defence minister and Gerindra party candidate, securing approximately 60%. This outcome suggests a potential victory for Prabowo in the first round, alleviating the need for a runoff and thereby reducing political uncertainty.

The completion of the presidential election in one round is expected to facilitate a smoother transition of power to the next administration. With the official presidential inauguration set for October 2024, Prabowo will have ample time to deliberate on cabinet options and assume a more prominent role in domestic and international affairs during the transition from the outgoing president, Joko Widodo (Jokowi).

Prabowo's apparent decisive victory provides him with the political capital necessary to shape his administration. While affiliated with Gerindra, it is anticipated that he will collaborate with the Indonesian Democratic Party-Struggle (PDI-P), likely resulting in key cabinet roles for the PDI-P. However, the "big tent" approach adopted by Jokowi, is expected to continue under Prabowo, wherein he will attempt at encompassing a diverse range of parties in his administration to manage political rivalries effectively.

From an economic standpoint, Prabowo signals strong continuity with Jokowi's administration. Key projects initiated by Jokowi are expected to persist, although delays may occur. The capital relocation project, in particular, might experience setbacks. Despite lacking Jokowi's extensive foreign affairs experience, Prabowo is committed to continuing industrial policies, including downstream processing of critical minerals and electric-vehicle manufacturing. The GDP growth is projected to remain at 5.1%, falling short of Prabowo's target of 7%.

However, concerns about potential regression in democratic norms have heightened. Prabowo's strongman persona and military background raise apprehensions about potential crackdowns on protests and risks to the independence of judicial and anti-corruption bodies. While other candidates have hinted at fraud given early election results (refer figure 1), successful disputes or significant protests are not anticipated. In the official count by the election committee KPU based on 71.7% of bulletins, Prabowo Subianto secured 58.6% of the votes in the first round of the presidential elections. Anies Baswedan and Ganjar Pranowo followed with 24.3% and 17.1%, respectively. The official results closely align with quick counts by pollsters, confirming Prabowo's victory, pending legal confirmation from the KPU. 

Figure 1: Presidential Polls, quick count(%)

Legal complaints regarding electoral fraud have been filed, which could potentially delay the official confirmation of Prabowo's victory. As a consequence, major parliamentary parties, including PDI-P, remain poised for opposition. Nevertheless, Prabowo is expected to pursue a broad coalition for his government, drawing from his experience during Jokowi's second term, where the majority of parliamentary parties backed his administration. The alliance between Prabowo’s Gerindra and PDI-P will also sustain throughout the next term, given that Prabowo’s vice-president is Jokowi’s son, Gibran Rakabuming Raka. Overall, economic policies are unlikely to vary too much from their current stance, but social policies and democratic freedom may take a hit.