Iran, Islamic Republic of
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February 24, 2026
Iran: Limited U.S. Attack?
February 24, 2026 10:00 AM UTC
· Iran authorities appear reluctant to meet the Trump administration’s demand to stop nuclear fuel production for potential weapons. This increases the odds of a limited attack by the U.S. on Iran to 30-40% (Figure 1), which could occur as soon as this weekend. The most likely I
February 12, 2026
Cuba: Pressure Grows
February 12, 2026 8:05 AM UTC
· The Donroe doctrine has pressured Mexico into halting oil exports to Cuba, which is intensifying pressure on Cuba’s regime. While chaos and attempted mass immigration is a risk, the baseline is for a negotiated deal as U.S./Cuba discussions deepen – though with the added complex
January 28, 2026
Trump’s Problems
January 28, 2026 8:35 AM UTC
Overall, the Trump administration’s hyperactive start to 2026 is unlikely to achieve success on the number one issue for voters in the shape of cost of living concerns. Meanwhile ICE’s immigration tactics in Minnesota are causing concerns among swing voters, though Trump geopolitical adventuri
January 12, 2026
Maximum Trump
January 12, 2026 9:55 AM UTC
· Overall, though Trump action can cause volatility in financial markets, the major issues remain the performance of the U.S. economy and whether the current scale of AI optimism will remain. Monthly TICS data since the April reciprocal tariffs show that global investors continue inwa
December 08, 2025
September 09, 2025
June 23, 2025
Iran: Measured Next Steps?
June 23, 2025 3:17 PM UTC
A measured or modest Iran retaliation could be used by the U.S. to seek a path back towards negotiation. Israel would likely want to continue to degrade Iran nuclear and military facilities, but the U.S. could eventually pressure Israel to stop. This is our baseline, though the military attac
February 27, 2025
October 15, 2024
U.S. Tensions for China: Protected by BRICS and BRI?
October 15, 2024 9:30 AM UTC
BRICS can provide a political buffer but not economic, as BRICS are still searching for practical areas for cooperation. However, Donald Trump universal tariffs threats could focus BRICS on more intra EM trade. BRI has already helped to redirect China exports to EM countries, despite the slowdown
September 30, 2024
Israel/Hezbollah Scenarios
September 30, 2024 9:26 AM UTC
The most likely scenarios between Israel and Hezbollah are Israel/Hezbollah intermittent attacks/counterattacks (40%) or significant ground invasion Southern Lebanon (45%). Both would be difficult in human terms and raise geopolitical tensions, but are unlikely to cause a lasting impact on global
September 03, 2024
August 26, 2024
Israel/Hezbollah War Risks
August 26, 2024 8:02 AM UTC
The probability of an Israel/Hezbollah war in the next 12 months has move up from low to modest probability, but would be a high impact event geopolitically and for global markets. For global markets, a distinction would be drawn between an Israel/Hezbollah war that did not involve Iran/U.S. and o
July 09, 2024
Israel and Hezbollah: Tensions or War?
July 9, 2024 2:28 PM UTC
Tensions are growing between Israel and Hezbollah, though the odds of a war in the next 6 months remain modest. Military strategists note that such a war would require a large scale ground offensive and this is difficult given the war in Gaza.
