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November 06, 2025
Preview: Due November 17 - Canada October CPI - Slower if still above target
November 6, 2025 8:13 PM UTC
We expect October’s Canadian CPI to slip to 2.2% yr/yr from 2.4% in September, though this will remain above August’s 1.9% and a Bank of Canada forecast for Q4 of 2.0%. We expect modest slippage in the Bank of Canada’s core rates too, though they will remain above the 2.0% target.
Preview: Due November 7 - Canada October Employment - Trend near flat despite volatility
November 6, 2025 3:04 PM UTC
Canadian employment data has been volatile in recent months, but underlying trend looks fairly flat, consistent with weak but marginally positive GDP growth. We expect October to see a decline of 5k after a strong 60.4k increase in September with unemployment unchanged at 7.1%.
Russia’s Inflation is Expected to Continue to Soften in October Likely Hitting Below 8.0% y/y
November 6, 2025 2:39 PM UTC
Bottom Line: We expect Russian inflation to continue its decreasing pattern in October thanks to lagged impacts of previous aggressive monetary tightening coupled with softening food prices and decreasing core inflation. October inflation figures will be announced on November 14, and we foresee Yr/Y
Some evidence of a subdued US labor market picture in October
November 6, 2025 2:02 PM UTC
While October’s non-farm payroll will not be released as scheduled tomorrow with September’s still absent, we are seeing some labor market signals today. A non-farm payroll estimate from Reveilo Labs shows payrolls down by 9.1k in October after a 33k rise in September (revised down from 60.1k).
BoE Review: Fiscal Elephant in the Room Ignored – For Now!
November 6, 2025 1:47 PM UTC
A tight vote was always likely for the November MPC verdict, but the 5:4 split was closer than expected, but almost a repeat of the August decision when rates were cut to the current 4%. What seems clear is that the effective swing voter was Governor Bailey but who coloured his decision with a cle
U.S. Equities: Smaller Correction But Still Overvalued
November 6, 2025 10:25 AM UTC
· We are revising up our end 2025 S&P500 forecast from 6000 to 6500 for a number of reasons. Private sector data shows the risk of a U.S. hard landing is lower than a couple of months ago, with economic data more consistent with a soft landing. Additionally, the tech/AI optimism has n
Norges Bank Review: All Ready For December Cut?
November 6, 2025 9:31 AM UTC
No change in policy and little shift in rhetoric was the message from the Norges Bank’s latest verdict. After what was to some a surprise (and seemingly far from a formality) move in September, in which the Norges Bank cut is policy rate by a further 25 bp to 4.0%, we see no change at Nov 6 verd