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July 02, 2025
Asia Open - Overnight Highlights
July 2, 2025 12:00 AM UTC
EMERGING ASIA
EM currencies are trading individually against the greenback as the USD chopped higher on Trump's policy uncertainty in early Asia before retracing all gains and dipped into negativity in later sessions. The largest winners are TWD 1.43%, followed by MYR 0.33%, INR & IDR 0.25% and THB 0
July 01, 2025
Preview: Due July 15 - U.S. June CPI - A little more from tariffs
July 1, 2025 6:42 PM UTC
We expect June CPI to increase by 0.3% overall and by 0.3% ex food and energy, with the overall pace close to 0.3% before rounding but the core rate rounded up from 0.27%. This would still be the strongest core rate since January and reflect tariffs starting to feed through, something expected by Fe
Preview: Due July 16 - U.S. June PPI - Stronger if still mostly subdued
July 1, 2025 6:14 PM UTC
We expect June PPI to rise by 0.3% overall, which would be the strongest increase since January, with gains of 0.2% in each of the core rates, ex food and energy and ex food, energy and trade. The core rates would be the strongest since March, though still quite subdued.
Senate adds more debt to the U.S. budget bill, and sends it back to the House
July 1, 2025 5:35 PM UTC
The Senate has passed its version of the “One Big Beautiful Bill” relying on the casting vote of Vice-President Vance. The Senate’s version adds more to the deficit than the version previously passed by the House, also passed by only one vote, meaning that a rapid approval of the Senate versio
Preview: Due July 2 - U.S. June ADP Employment - A third straight sub-100k gain
July 1, 2025 3:08 PM UTC
We expect a rise of 50k in June’s ADP estimate for private sector employment growth. This would be stronger than May’s 37k but a third straight gain of significantly below 100k. ADP underperformed the non-farm payroll significantly in April and May. We expect a more modest underperformance in Ju
U.S. May JOLTS report sees sharp rise in Job Openings, June ISM manufacturing rises but detail mixed
July 1, 2025 2:28 PM UTC
May’s JOLTS report shows a sharp and surprising rise in job openings, by 375k to 7.769m, the highest since November 2024, the gain following a 195k rise in April with the two gains fully erasing declines seen in February and March. June ISM manufacturing data is marginally improved, to 49.0 from 4
Trump Tariffs: Poker Face?
July 1, 2025 12:55 PM UTC
Our central scenario (but less than 50%) is towards a scenario of compromise, with some agreements in principle or trade framework deals, delays for most other negotiating in good faith but with one or two countries seeing a reciprocal tariff rise e.g. Spain and/or Vietnam. This could still be fol
Europe Summary and Highlights 1 July
July 1, 2025 10:14 AM UTC
The USD weakened across the board through the European morning, with the JPY and CHF the best performers, both gaining around 0.5%, while riskier currencies were generally up around 0.3%, although the NOK matched CHF and JPY gains, and the SEK also slightly outperformed the EUR.
EZ HICP and ECB Strategy Review: Headline Up to Target as Services Inflation Rises Back?
July 1, 2025 9:32 AM UTC
Despite its updated its monetary policy strategy detailed yesterday, inflation – now at target – is very much a side issue for the ECB at present, albeit with oil prices possibly accentuating Council divides. Admittedly, the flash June HICP rose a notch to 2.0% matching the -consensus, but up