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June 20, 2025

North American Summary and Highlights 20 Jun
Freemium Article

June 20, 2025 7:28 PM UTC

Overview - Friday saw a sharp rise in EUR/JPY as USD/JPY and EUR/USD both advanced.  

Preview: Due July 2 - U.S. June ADP Employment - A third straight sub-100k gain
Paying Article

June 20, 2025 5:38 PM UTC

We expect a rise of 50k in June’s ADP estimate for private sector employment growth. This would be stronger than May’s 37k but a third straight gain of significantly below 100k. ADP underperformed the non-farm payroll significantly in April and May. We expect a more modest underperformance in Ju

U.S. Fed's Barkin - Contrasts dovish earlier remarks from Waller
Paying Article

June 20, 2025 4:53 PM UTC

Fed's Barkin sees no rush to ease. Earlier Fed's Waller said the Fed could move as early as July.

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Preview: Due July 3 - U.S. June Employment (Non-Farm Payrolls) - Increasing signs of slowing, but not a recession
Freemium Article

June 20, 2025 4:29 PM UTC

We expect a 75k increase in June’s non-farm payroll, significantly slower than May’s 139k though consistent with a slowdown in growth rather than an economy entering recession. We expect an in line with trend 0.3% increase in average hourly earnings and an uptick in unemployment to 4.3% after th

FX Weekly Strategy:Asia, June 16th-20th
Paying Article

June 20, 2025 3:55 PM UTC

Geopolitics Remain in the Spotlight
Slate of U.S. Data will otherwise dictate sentiment
And Likely See Choppy DXY
Followed By Canada CPI and GDP

Chart USD/CAD Update: Room for higher in CAD-driven trade
Freemium Article

June 20, 2025 3:23 PM UTC

Little change, as prices extend cautious trade above congestion support at 1.3700

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U.S. Outlook: Slowdown but not Recession, Cautious Fed Easing
Paying Article

June 20, 2025 2:14 PM UTC

•    Policy uncertainty remains high and final details of the tariffs will depend on the decisions of the courts as well as those of President Trump. However the magnitude of the tariffs is becoming easier to predict than the detail. Trump looks set to insist on a minimum average tariff of at

Chart AUD/USD Update: Consolidating
Paying Article

June 20, 2025 1:44 PM UTC

The anticipated test of congestion support at 0.6450 has given way to a bounce

Chart EUR/JPY Update: Fresh year highs
Paying Article

June 20, 2025 1:33 PM UTC

Cautious trade is giving way to further gains

Preview: Due June 23 - U.S. May Existing Home Sales - Remaining subdued
Paying Article

June 20, 2025 1:31 PM UTC

We expect May existing home sales to maintain a subdued picture with a decline of 1.3% to 3.95m. This would be the lowest pace since September 2024. Yr/yr data at -2.7% from -2.0% in April would also be the weakest since September 2024.

Preview: Due June 23 - U.S. June S&P PMIs - Corrections lower after May gains, but remaining positive
Paying Article

June 20, 2025 1:27 PM UTC

We expect June’s S and P PMIs to show modest corrections lower to correct May improvements, which contrasted weaker data from the ISM surveys in May. However the corrections, manufacturing to 51.0 from 52.0, and services to 53.0 from 53.7, should be moderate enough to suggest scope for gains in Ju

Chart USD/JPY Update: Price action remains positive
Paying Article

June 20, 2025 1:06 PM UTC

Little change, as prices extend cautious trade beneath resistance at 146.00

Canada April retail sales resilient but May seen much weaker
Freemium Article

June 20, 2025 1:04 PM UTC

Canadian retail sales saw a 0.3% increase in April, slightly less than the preliminary estimate of 0.5% made with March’s data. The preliminary estimate for May is for a 1.1% decline, which suggests US tariffs are starting to weaken the Canadian economy.

U.S. June Philly Fed - Details mostly weak
Paying Article

June 20, 2025 12:45 PM UTC

June’s Philly Fed manufacturing index of -4.0 is unchanged from May and weaker than expected. The details are generally soft, with 6-month expectations slowing to 18.3 from May’s very strong 47.2, though the 6-month view is still stronger than seen in March and April.

Chart USD/ZAR Update: Choppy in range - studies edging higher
Paying Article

June 20, 2025 11:40 AM UTC

Still little change, as prices extend choppy trade within 18.0000 - 18.1000

Chart EUR/CAD Update: Edging higher
Paying Article

June 20, 2025 10:58 AM UTC

Anticipated gains are approaching congestion resistance at 1.5800

Chart EUR/CHF Update: Extending consolidation
Paying Article

June 20, 2025 10:36 AM UTC

Little change, as prices extend consolidation around congestion resistance at 0.9400

Chartbook: Chart GBP/USD: Room for higher as long-term studies improve
Paying Article

June 20, 2025 10:16 AM UTC

Anticipated gains have reached resistance at the 1.3330 Fibonacci retracement and congestion around 1.3500

This week's five highlights
Freemium Article

June 20, 2025 10:00 AM UTC

Fed Hold Then Cautious Easing
Labour Market Softness Triggers a Dovish BoE Hold 
SNB Cut to Zero, But Negative Rates an Option
Norges Bank Coming (Very) Late to the Party
Riksbank Cuts and Flags Possible Further Move

FX Daily Strategy: N America, June 20th
Paying Article

June 20, 2025 9:55 AM UTC

Geopolitical concerns likely to dominate on Friday
Scope for a JPY recovery on the crosses
USD to hold firm even if Philly Fed weak, especially versus EUR and scandis

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Commodities Outlook: Policy Realignment
Paying Article

June 20, 2025 9:30 AM UTC

In Q2 2025, eight OPEC+ countries pledged a faster oil supply hike, motivated by market share losses, internal frictions, and geopolitical shifts. However, actual output has fallen short due to overproduction offsets, domestic consumption, and capacity limits. Further gradual increases are expected,

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Eurozone Outlook: In Tariff Limbo Land?
Paying Article

June 20, 2025 9:24 AM UTC

·       Amid what may still be tightening financial conditions and likely protracted trade uncertainty, we have pared back the EZ activity forecast for 2026. However, the picture this year appears to be slightly better but this is largely a distortion and we think that the economy has instead

Chart USD/CHF Update: Immediate losses to remain limited
Paying Article

June 20, 2025 8:34 AM UTC

Little change, as prices extend cautious trade beneath congestion resistance at 0.8200

Chartbook: Chart USD/JPY: Consolidating above 140.00, room for break later
Paying Article

June 20, 2025 8:29 AM UTC

Sharp losses from the January high has seen losses to retest the critical 140.00/139.60 support and 2024 year low

Chart USD Index DXY Update: Downside to remain limited
Paying Article

June 20, 2025 8:15 AM UTC

Cautious trade around resistance at 99.00 has given way to a pullback