2025 Q4 Shadow Credit Ratings to Download in Excel

The Country Insights Model is a comprehensive quantitative tool for assessing country and sovereign risk by measuring a country’s risk of external and domestic financial shocks and its ability to grow. We produce Shadow Credit Ratings for 162 countries, comparable to those from official credit rating agencies.

The ratings are based on our Country Strength Index (CSI), which is our most comprehensive assessment across our full range of Country Insights data. The ratings are consistent with our 2025 Q4 Country Insights update.

Figure 1 presents a comparison between each country’s score in our CSI and its corresponding rating from major credit rating agencies. The second column reflects the rating implied by the CSI, while the third column shows the rating assigned by external agencies (CRA Rating). The final column highlights the direction of any discrepancy between the two assessments.

1. An upward arrow indicates that the CSI suggests a stronger credit profile than currently recognized by rating agencies.

2. A downward arrow indicates that the CSI points to weaker fundamentals relative to the agencies’ assessments.

3. An equal sign denotes full alignment between both evaluations.

This comparison helps identify potential divergences between market perceptions and the structural strengths captured by our index.

Figure 1: Ratings Justified by our Country Strength Index vs Credit Rating Agencies

Source: Continuum Economics

As an illustrative example, we consider Argentina. The country currently holds an average external credit rating of CCC+, which is below the rating implied by our Country Strength Index (CSI). In other words, our model points to a stronger underlying credit profile than that reflected in market assessments by rating agencies. To understand this divergence, it is useful to compare Argentina with other sovereigns that also carry a CCC+ rating from external agencies, including Senegal, Sri Lanka, Burkina Faso, Republic of the Congo, Zambia, Mozambique, Suriname, and Laos.

Figure 2 plots Argentina’s position (in red) relative to this group of CCC+ rated peers in terms of the overall CSI score and its four underlying pillars: External Adjustment Capacity, Institutional Robustness, Medium-Term Growth Potential, and Social Inclusion.

Figure 2: Argentina (Red) vs other CCC+ Rated Economies

Source: Continuum Economics

Within the External Adjustment Capacity pillar, Argentina ranks second among this group of CCC+ rated sovereigns, positioned just behind Zambia. This relatively strong standing is supported by more favorable trade vulnerability indicators and comparatively lower external indebtedness. In Institutional Robustness, Argentina outperforms all other CCC+ peers, a result largely underpinned by stronger banking sector metrics relative to similarly rated sovereigns. By contrast, in the Medium-Term Growth Potential pillar, Argentina underperforms several peers, with demographic dynamics constituting a structural constraint on its forward-looking growth profile. In the Social Inclusion dimension, Argentina again ranks second within the peer group, reflecting comparatively solid outcomes in basic education, health, and material well-being. Overall, Argentina’s cross-pillar performance relative to its similarly rated counterparts helps explain why the Country Strength Index points to a BB+ rating (materially above the current average external rating of CCC+) and suggests that underlying structural fundamentals are stronger than implied by prevailing agency assessments.

See Article Resources (below) to access the full range of scores.