Canada August GDP - Flat but September seen stronger
August Canadian GDP was unchanged with July revised down to 0.1% from 0.2%, but the preliminary estimate for September is for a stronger rise of 90.3%. This would leave Q3 up by around 1.0% annualized, below a recent 1.5% Bank of Canada estimate, though would suggest a stronger base to start Q4.
August detail shows goods down by 0.4% with declines in manufacturing and utilities outweighing gains in mining, construction and agriculture. Services rose by 0.1% for a third straight month, led by retail at 0.6%, with public administration and mining both up by 0.5%. Weakness was seen in wholesale at 0-0.6% and transportation and warehousing at -0.3%. Yr/yr growth slowed to 1.3% from 1.4% and remains subdued.
September’s gain is expected to be led by finance and insurance, construction and retail, but with weakness in mining.
