Ukraine War Update: Major Russian Offensive is Expected This Summer Despite U.S. Military Aid

Russian Forces Advancing as a Major Russian Offensive is Expected in Summer

Bad weather conditions in Ukraine decelerated the pace of the war in the winter, before the offensives at the front lines picked up steam after March/April. Russian forces plan for their summer 2024 offensive operation is to seize more territory before the U.S. presidential elections in November. Military analysts expect stronger Russian counter-offensives in the northwestern regions of Kharkiv, Donetsk region and Sumy.

According to sources, Russian forces already made significant tactical gains as Ukraine waits for U.S. security assistance to arrive at the front lines. The tempo of Russian offensive operations is currently higher in the Avdiivka direction and near Chasiv Yar, as Chasiv Yar is a critical point which would likely provide Russian forces with the opportunity for more operationally significant advances.

Ukrainian officials recently indicated that Russian forces in Ukraine have not significantly increased in size in recent months but that the Russian military continues to improve its fighting qualities overall despite suffering degradation, especially among elite units since the start of the war. On this matter, ISW recently highlighted that Russian military will likely maintain its current personnel replacement rate and will not generate the significant number of available personnel needed to establish strategic-level reserves for larger-scale offensive operations in 2024.

Support to Ukraine from Western Block Accelerated, U.S. Military Aid On the Way

After EU leaders agreed on February 1 to extend EUR50 billion (USD54 billion) in aid for Ukraine’s recovery, reconstruction, and modernization for 2024-2027, the U.S. House of Representatives passed a supplemental appropriations bill on April 20 providing for roughly $61 billion of assistance to Ukraine, which was then approved by the president Biden on April 24.

The first deliveries of resumed U.S. military assistance reportedly arrived in Ukraine late April, although it will likely take several additional weeks before U.S. weapons and ammunition arrive to frontline areas at scale. Additionally, a supply of Patriot interceptor missiles from Spain arrived in Poland on April 30, and transmitted to Ukraine front lines.

Despite advancements in supply of additional armor and ammunitions to Ukraine from Western block, one American official recently said most of the larger weapons that were financed by the new U.S. aid, and even some of the ammunition, would be shipped from U.S. and most likely not be delivered until well into the summer - or even later, which could help Russian counteroffensives in the summer to be stronger and disruptive. Analysts consider that it would probably be summer at best before Ukraine can stabilize its front lines with the new infusion of aid.

Peace Talks Can Start in 2025

According to some political analysts, Ukraine will at some point have to enter into talks with Russia to bring an end to the war, which may likely start in the second half of 2025 despite Zelenskiy repeatedly stated that the peace negotiations are impossible as Russia formally annexed four Ukrainian regions in 2022, and Kiev is not ready for talks with Moscow unless its troops withdrew from Ukraine.

Taking into account that Ukraine likely will not be able to win the war on the battlefield alone, it appears peace talks will be inevitable at some point, even if Ukraine forces will partly stop Russian invasion or push them back to the borders as we think Russians will likely come back again and again. The prospect of a peace deal with Russia has re-emerged as Ukraine’s forces – running low on manpower and ammunition – suffer setback after setback on the battlefield.

It is worth mentioning Putin indicated in February that Russia and Ukraine will come to terms sooner or later and said "We are not against a peace deal. This endless mobilization in Ukraine, the hysteria, the domestic problems, sooner or later will result in an agreement."

A Ukraine Peace Summit is Due to be Held in Switzerland in June, without Russia’s Presence

A special Ukraine peace summit in Switzerland is planned to be held on June 15-16 following Zelenskiy’s proposal, without Russia’s presence. Zelenskiy highlighted on May 2 that the June meeting as practically the first real chance to start restoring a just peace, and added Russia is not invited to a peace summit as there is no assurance that Moscow will bargain in good faith.

Despite a spokesman for Russia’s foreign ministry underscored Moscow was ready to consider serious proposals to settle the Ukraine conflict which take the Kremlin’s security concerns into account, Russia recently emphasized that it saw no point in attending a conference in Switzerland to discuss how to end the conflict in Ukraine. Medvedev also dismissed the Swiss talks as the product of impotent Western elites.

U.S. Presidential Election Will Set the Scene in Ukraine

We think the U.S. presidential elections would set the scene in Ukraine and we envisage the former U.S. President Trump would not be expected to provide firm backing for Ukraine, if elected. In case Trump is elected as the new U.S. president, this could also severely split western support and may quickly lead to a Russia friendly peace deal with current land lines. (Note: According to The UK Telegraph, sources said Trump will style himself as the only candidate during the elections campaign who can end the war, with a simple bumper-sticker slogan: Trump will stop the killing). Europe would likely step up military support if a president Trump curtails support, but it would likely be modest given disagreements within the EU

After Putin was reelected for his fifth term to the Kremlin until 2030 on March 15, we foresee he will not accept restoring Ukraine’s borders willingly, and wait for the possibility of a Trump win in the U.S. elections as Putin hopes Trump is reelected U.S. president and splits western support and leading to a Russia friendly peace deal with current territories. If this scenario will not materialize, the war will likely remain a stalemate for a longer time without a peace deal.  A Biden victory would see more support for Ukraine, but eventually a push from the U.S. to reach some peace deal given the deadlock on the war.