May 08, 2024

Ukraine War Update: Major Russian Offensive is Expected This Summer Despite U.S. Military Aid
Paying Article

May 8, 2024 12:06 PM UTC

Bottom Line: The offensives at the front lines started to pick up steam after March/April as the Russian forces plan for their larger summer 2024 offensive operation, aiming to seize more territory before the U.S. presidential elections in November. In the meantime, U.S. approved a $61 billion warti

April 22, 2024

EM Europe/CIS: Country Risk Ratings
Paying Article

April 22, 2024 9:00 AM UTC

We provide country risk reviews for EM Europe/CIS countries including Russia and Ukraine. 

February 29, 2024

Russia Frozen Assets, Ukraine Reconstruction and G7-BRICS
Paying Article

February 29, 2024 10:55 AM UTC

Bottom Line: A number of proposals to seize or use Russia frozen assets for Ukraine reconstruction are not getting overwhelming support within the G7 and a decision could be delayed until the G7 summit in Italy June 13-15.  Concerns over the legal standing and reputational risk (China has been shif

February 13, 2024

Ukraine War Update: The Struggle for Western Support
Paying Article

February 13, 2024 9:39 AM UTC

Bottom Line: As we expected, the deadlock in Ukraine continues to hold as of the winter months, and protracted conflict remains active as both sides continue to failure to gain ground. The support to Ukraine from the Western Block remains fragmented despite European Union (EU) leaders unanimously ag

January 18, 2024

EM Europe/CIS: Country Risk Ratings

January 18, 2024 10:00 AM UTC

We provide country risk reviews for EM Europe/CIS countries including Russia, Ukraine and Turkey. 

November 20, 2023

Ukraine War: Western Support Weakens, Elections on the Horizon, Peace Negotiations Remains Unlikely
Paying Article

November 20, 2023 11:28 AM UTC

Market Implications: The war continues to create an increasing financial burden on Russia due to high military spending in addition to aggravation of staff shortages, elevated inflation, and trade income diminishing due to sanctions. Ukraine's economy continues to contract, inflation surges, and inf

October 19, 2023

EM Europe/CIS: Country Risk Ratings

October 19, 2023 10:33 AM UTC

Armenia’s overall risk level remains medium high. Vahagn Khachaturyan continues to be the president of Armenia after being in elected in March 2022, after the resignation of his predecessor. Political violence remains medium high and political interference and legal & regulatory risk at a m

August 07, 2023

Navigating the Path to Peace: Saudi Talks on Ukraine-Russia Conflict
Paying Article

August 7, 2023 10:59 AM UTC

Saudi plays peacemaker
The goal of the meeting in Jeddah this weekend was to discuss and potentially agree upon essential principles that could pave the way for a peaceful end to the conflict in Europe. Saudi brought together several stakeholders with diverse interests and perspectives on the conflic

August 04, 2023

Ukraine War: Stalemate and Frozen Conflict or Prolonged War?
Paying Article

August 4, 2023 10:59 AM UTC

Market Implications: The war continues to create an increasing financial burden on Russia due to high military spending in addition to aggravation of staff shortages, elevated inflation, and risks posed by the sanctions. Ukraine’s economy continues to contract, inflation surges and exports decreas

July 25, 2023

Russia’s Withdrawal from Black Sea Grain Deal
Paying Article

July 25, 2023 4:13 PM UTC

The Black Sea grain deal expired as of July 17 as Russia announced its decision not to extend it, arguing that Russia’s requests on removing obstacles to Russian agricultural exports was never fulfilled, and the grain exported from Ukraine (which were meant to be shipped to poor countries) headed

July 20, 2023

Ukraine War Dominates the Region
Paying Article

July 20, 2023 7:31 AM UTC

Eastern Europe and CIS Regional Overview
In Russia, Wagner Group’s mutiny on June 23, which involved Wagner forces marching towards Moscow and taking control of military facilities in two Russian cities, tipped the scales and weakened President Putin’s authority. Despite Putin announcing on July

EM Europe/CIS Country Risk Ratings
Paying Article

July 20, 2023 7:29 AM UTC

Albania has a medium overall risk. Political leadership is stable in Albania, with the Socialist Party of Albania retaining election for the third consecutive term in April 2021. The government are expected to serve its term in its entirety, with the next election in 2025. However, high food

March 21, 2023

War in Ukraine: Turning to Stalemate
Paying Article

March 21, 2023 2:58 PM UTC

Figure 1: Possible Scenarios
Source: Continuum Economics.(1) Other scenarios would be a remaining 10% including a double cold war with China and Russia versus the west; Putin stepping down or dying or a successful Ukraine counter offensive that reclaims a fair portion of lost territory.
No Russian Maj

August 25, 2022

Russia Bears the Cost of Extended War — for Now
Paying Article

August 25, 2022 3:14 PM UTC

Figure 1: Russia Quarterly GDP, y/y
Source: Bloomberg, Continuum Economics
Russia's invasion of Ukraine may have been based on an assumption of Kyiv falling quickly and an easy victory. While this brings into daylight the poor planning and preparation going into the campaign, the Russian economy has w

August 22, 2022

Gas Price Surge on New Russia Supply Threats
Paying Article

August 22, 2022 2:03 PM UTC

Figure 1: Europe and Japan/South Korea Gas Prices (Dec. 31, 2021 = 100)
Source: Datastream
Russia Supply Problems into the Autumn
Russia has announced a 3-day shutdown of Nord Stream 1 from Aug. 31, which has sent European gas prices surging as worries grow that the shutdown could be extended or tha

July 26, 2022

EU Agrees Voluntary Demand Cuts, but Gas Prices Will Remain Sky High
Paying Article

July 26, 2022 3:06 PM UTC

Figure 1: European and U.S. Gas Prices
Source: Datastream
EU member states have agreed to a voluntary plan to cut gas demand by 15% (here). While the plan has plenty of loopholes to provide flexibility across the EU, political and economic momentum will likely follow through at a national level to re