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October 22, 2024
October 04, 2024
Ukraine War Update: Kursk Battle is Turning into a Stalemate
October 4, 2024 7:05 PM UTC
Bottom Line: After Ukraine’s offensive inside Russia's western Kursk region started early August, it seems the Russian military command is continuing to prioritize offensive operations in priority sectors of the frontline over long-term planning for Russia's theater-wide campaign in Ukraine as Rus
August 27, 2024
Ukraine War Update: Surprising Ukraine Incursion in Russia Continues
August 27, 2024 10:51 AM UTC
Bottom Line: Ukraine’s surprise cross-border offensive inside Russia's western Kursk region continues with pace as Ukrainians recently advanced near Sudzha. In response, Russian military deploys forces from lower priority sectors of the frontline in Ukraine to the frontline in Kursk Oblast. We for
August 12, 2024
Ukraine War Update: Surprising Ukraine Incursion in Russia
August 12, 2024 4:02 PM UTC
Bottom Line: After Russia executed strong counteroffensive operations in the western regions of Ukraine this summer, aiming to seize more territory before the U.S. presidential elections, Ukraine made a surprise attack in return and conducted a cross-border offensive inside Russia's western Kursk re
July 15, 2024
May 08, 2024
Ukraine War Update: Major Russian Offensive is Expected This Summer Despite U.S. Military Aid
May 8, 2024 12:06 PM UTC
Bottom Line: The offensives at the front lines started to pick up steam after March/April as the Russian forces plan for their larger summer 2024 offensive operation, aiming to seize more territory before the U.S. presidential elections in November. In the meantime, U.S. approved a $61 billion warti
April 22, 2024
February 29, 2024
Russia Frozen Assets, Ukraine Reconstruction and G7-BRICS
February 29, 2024 10:55 AM UTC
Bottom Line: A number of proposals to seize or use Russia frozen assets for Ukraine reconstruction are not getting overwhelming support within the G7 and a decision could be delayed until the G7 summit in Italy June 13-15. Concerns over the legal standing and reputational risk (China has been shif
February 13, 2024
Ukraine War Update: The Struggle for Western Support
February 13, 2024 9:39 AM UTC
Bottom Line: As we expected, the deadlock in Ukraine continues to hold as of the winter months, and protracted conflict remains active as both sides continue to failure to gain ground. The support to Ukraine from the Western Block remains fragmented despite European Union (EU) leaders unanimously ag
January 18, 2024
November 20, 2023
Ukraine War: Western Support Weakens, Elections on the Horizon, Peace Negotiations Remains Unlikely
November 20, 2023 11:28 AM UTC
Market Implications: The war continues to create an increasing financial burden on Russia due to high military spending in addition to aggravation of staff shortages, elevated inflation, and trade income diminishing due to sanctions. Ukraine's economy continues to contract, inflation surges, and inf
August 07, 2023
Navigating the Path to Peace: Saudi Talks on Ukraine-Russia Conflict
August 7, 2023 10:59 AM UTC
Saudi plays peacemaker
The goal of the meeting in Jeddah this weekend was to discuss and potentially agree upon essential principles that could pave the way for a peaceful end to the conflict in Europe. Saudi brought together several stakeholders with diverse interests and perspectives on the conflic
March 21, 2023
War in Ukraine: Turning to Stalemate
March 21, 2023 2:58 PM UTC
Figure 1: Possible Scenarios
Source: Continuum Economics.(1) Other scenarios would be a remaining 10% including a double cold war with China and Russia versus the west; Putin stepping down or dying or a successful Ukraine counter offensive that reclaims a fair portion of lost territory.
No Russian Maj