Ukraine
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February 13, 2025
Negotiations to End Ukraine War to Start Soon
February 13, 2025 3:03 PM UTC
Bottom Line: As we envisaged, U.S. president Trump and Russian president Putin talked over the phone on February 12 to discuss the war in Ukraine. According to sources, Trump and Putin agreed to have their teams start negotiations immediately. Under current circumstances, we foresee a Russia-friendl
January 27, 2025
Trump-Putin Meeting in Horizon, Date Still Unknown
January 27, 2025 7:01 PM UTC
Bottom Line: After Trump took the office as of January 20, we feel Ukraine war is not a priority in Trump’s agenda since he is most focused on his priorities of immigration and tariffs. We think Trump and Putin will likely meet in spring to discuss tha war in Ukraine and energy prices, and Ukraine
November 26, 2024
Ukraine War Update: What is Next in Ukraine under New Trump Administration?
November 26, 2024 1:14 PM UTC
Bottom Line: After Trump was elected for his second term, we foresee two major and one alternative scenario in Ukraine. Our first scenario is based on a negotiated settlement backed by the Trump administration, which could help Russia to gain assurance of no NATO/EU entry in the foreseeable future f
October 22, 2024
October 04, 2024
Ukraine War Update: Kursk Battle is Turning into a Stalemate
October 4, 2024 7:05 PM UTC
Bottom Line: After Ukraine’s offensive inside Russia's western Kursk region started early August, it seems the Russian military command is continuing to prioritize offensive operations in priority sectors of the frontline over long-term planning for Russia's theater-wide campaign in Ukraine as Rus
August 27, 2024
Ukraine War Update: Surprising Ukraine Incursion in Russia Continues
August 27, 2024 10:51 AM UTC
Bottom Line: Ukraine’s surprise cross-border offensive inside Russia's western Kursk region continues with pace as Ukrainians recently advanced near Sudzha. In response, Russian military deploys forces from lower priority sectors of the frontline in Ukraine to the frontline in Kursk Oblast. We for
August 12, 2024
Ukraine War Update: Surprising Ukraine Incursion in Russia
August 12, 2024 4:02 PM UTC
Bottom Line: After Russia executed strong counteroffensive operations in the western regions of Ukraine this summer, aiming to seize more territory before the U.S. presidential elections, Ukraine made a surprise attack in return and conducted a cross-border offensive inside Russia's western Kursk re
July 15, 2024
May 08, 2024
Ukraine War Update: Major Russian Offensive is Expected This Summer Despite U.S. Military Aid
May 8, 2024 12:06 PM UTC
Bottom Line: The offensives at the front lines started to pick up steam after March/April as the Russian forces plan for their larger summer 2024 offensive operation, aiming to seize more territory before the U.S. presidential elections in November. In the meantime, U.S. approved a $61 billion warti
April 22, 2024
February 29, 2024
Russia Frozen Assets, Ukraine Reconstruction and G7-BRICS
February 29, 2024 10:55 AM UTC
Bottom Line: A number of proposals to seize or use Russia frozen assets for Ukraine reconstruction are not getting overwhelming support within the G7 and a decision could be delayed until the G7 summit in Italy June 13-15. Concerns over the legal standing and reputational risk (China has been shif
February 13, 2024
Ukraine War Update: The Struggle for Western Support
February 13, 2024 9:39 AM UTC
Bottom Line: As we expected, the deadlock in Ukraine continues to hold as of the winter months, and protracted conflict remains active as both sides continue to failure to gain ground. The support to Ukraine from the Western Block remains fragmented despite European Union (EU) leaders unanimously ag
January 18, 2024
November 20, 2023
Ukraine War: Western Support Weakens, Elections on the Horizon, Peace Negotiations Remains Unlikely
November 20, 2023 11:28 AM UTC
As Ukraine counter offensive operations continues without much success, the possibility of a stalemate and frozen conflict increase in the medium term taking into account Russia's continued failure to gain ground in late 2023. What will happen in 2024?
Bottom Line: We foresee a protracted conflict,
August 07, 2023
Navigating the Path to Peace: Saudi Talks on Ukraine-Russia Conflict
August 7, 2023 10:59 AM UTC
The ongoing conflict between Ukraine and Russia has been a global concern, with efforts continuously being made to find a peaceful resolution. In a recent development, Saudi Arabia hosted a summit in Jeddah last week that brought together top officials from around 40 countries, including key players
March 21, 2023
War in Ukraine: Turning to Stalemate
March 21, 2023 2:58 PM UTC
Russia’s failure to gather sufficient forces for a spring major offensive in Ukraine is an indication that attacks into Ukraine may have reached culmination without the realization of a significant offensive. An increasing fiscal burden on Russia and absence of meaningful support from China along