EM Europe/CIS: Country Risk Ratings

April 22, 2024 9:00 AM UTC

We provide country risk reviews for EM Europe/CIS countries including Russia and Ukraine. 

Russia Frozen Assets, Ukraine Reconstruction and G7-BRICS

February 29, 2024 10:55 AM UTC

Bottom Line: A number of proposals to seize or use Russia frozen assets for Ukraine reconstruction are not getting overwhelming support within the G7 and a decision could be delayed until the G7 summit in Italy June 13-15.  Concerns over the legal standing and reputational risk (China has been shif

Ukraine War Update: The Struggle for Western Support

February 13, 2024 9:39 AM UTC

Bottom Line: As we expected, the deadlock in Ukraine continues to hold as of the winter months, and protracted conflict remains active as both sides continue to failure to gain ground. The support to Ukraine from the Western Block remains fragmented despite European Union (EU) leaders unanimously ag

January 18, 2024 10:00 AM UTC

We provide country risk reviews for EM Europe/CIS countries including Russia, Ukraine and Turkey. 

Ukraine War: Western Support Weakens, Elections on the Horizon, Peace Negotiations Remains Unlikely

November 20, 2023 11:28 AM UTC

Market Implications: The war continues to create an increasing financial burden on Russia due to high military spending in addition to aggravation of staff shortages, elevated inflation, and trade income diminishing due to sanctions. Ukraine's economy continues to contract, inflation surges, and inf

October 19, 2023 10:33 AM UTC

Armenia
Armenia’s overall risk level remains medium high. Vahagn Khachaturyan continues to be the president of Armenia after being in elected in March 2022, after the resignation of his predecessor. Political violence remains medium high and political interference and legal & regulatory risk at a m

Navigating the Path to Peace: Saudi Talks on Ukraine-Russia Conflict

August 7, 2023 10:59 AM UTC

Saudi plays peacemaker
The goal of the meeting in Jeddah this weekend was to discuss and potentially agree upon essential principles that could pave the way for a peaceful end to the conflict in Europe. Saudi brought together several stakeholders with diverse interests and perspectives on the conflic

Ukraine War: Stalemate and Frozen Conflict or Prolonged War?

August 4, 2023 10:59 AM UTC

Market Implications: The war continues to create an increasing financial burden on Russia due to high military spending in addition to aggravation of staff shortages, elevated inflation, and risks posed by the sanctions. Ukraine’s economy continues to contract, inflation surges and exports decreas

Russia’s Withdrawal from Black Sea Grain Deal

July 25, 2023 4:13 PM UTC

The Black Sea grain deal expired as of July 17 as Russia announced its decision not to extend it, arguing that Russia’s requests on removing obstacles to Russian agricultural exports was never fulfilled, and the grain exported from Ukraine (which were meant to be shipped to poor countries) headed

War in Ukraine: Turning to Stalemate

March 21, 2023 2:58 PM UTC

Figure 1: Possible Scenarios
Source: Continuum Economics.(1) Other scenarios would be a remaining 10% including a double cold war with China and Russia versus the west; Putin stepping down or dying or a successful Ukraine counter offensive that reclaims a fair portion of lost territory.
No Russian Maj

Russia Bears the Cost of Extended War — for Now

August 25, 2022 3:14 PM UTC

Figure 1: Russia Quarterly GDP, y/y
Source: Bloomberg, Continuum Economics
Russia's invasion of Ukraine may have been based on an assumption of Kyiv falling quickly and an easy victory. While this brings into daylight the poor planning and preparation going into the campaign, the Russian economy has w

Gas Price Surge on New Russia Supply Threats

August 22, 2022 2:03 PM UTC

Figure 1: Europe and Japan/South Korea Gas Prices (Dec. 31, 2021 = 100)
Source: Datastream
Russia Supply Problems into the Autumn
Russia has announced a 3-day shutdown of Nord Stream 1 from Aug. 31, which has sent European gas prices surging as worries grow that the shutdown could be extended or tha

EU Agrees Voluntary Demand Cuts, but Gas Prices Will Remain Sky High

July 26, 2022 3:06 PM UTC

Figure 1: European and U.S. Gas Prices
Source: Datastream
EU member states have agreed to a voluntary plan to cut gas demand by 15% (here). While the plan has plenty of loopholes to provide flexibility across the EU, political and economic momentum will likely follow through at a national level to re

Ukraine War Scenarios: Long war, Exhaustion or Cyberattack

July 22, 2022 12:58 PM UTC

Figure 1: Possible Scenarios
Source: Continuum Economics.(1) Other scenarios would be a remaining 10% including a double cold war with China and Russia versus the west; Putin stepping down or dying or a successful Ukraine counter offensive that reclaims a fair portion of lost territory.
2 Main Scenari

Supply and Labor Problems: Easing or Persisting?

July 15, 2022 1:38 PM UTC

Figure 1: NY Fed Global Supply Chain Pressure Index
Source: NY Fed
Some Easing of Supply Concerns
The COVID pandemic and Ukraine war have caused persistent supply chain and labor market problems, but how are these changing during 2022? A range of data points to an easing of pressures, but others are

Germany’s Gas-induced Downside Risks Specified

July 12, 2022 1:52 PM UTC

Figure 1: ZEW Expectations Back to Pandemic Lows
Source: ZEW, % balance
A Different Kind of Pipeline Pressure
Given that Russia has significantly reduced its deliveries to Germany, natural gas is likely to become scarcer in the coming winter, especially if the current (maintenance-induced) stoppage in

ECB Divides over Wage Outlook — Laboring the Point

July 8, 2022 12:16 PM UTC

Figure 1: EZ Has Ample Labor Slack
Source: Eurostat, ECB
Wages Undershooting ECB Expectations
As Figure 1 also shows, growth in negotiated wages increased considerably in Q1, but as Lane has underlined, this is largely due to one-off payments. When excluding these, the increase was considerably more mo

Russia Defaults on External Debt: So What?

June 30, 2022 9:30 AM UTC

Figure 1: Russia Gross External Debt — Foreign Currency Bonds, $m
Source: Bloomberg, Continuum Economics
Default was a foregone conclusion since the U.S. Treasury failed to renew the waiver for Russian debt payments on May 25, but it is now official: Russia's failure to pay interest on a pair of Eur

Central Bank Response to $160 WTI Cuts Growth

June 29, 2022 9:23 AM UTC

Figure 1: Higher Oil Prices Mean Slower GDP Growth in US, EZ and China Relative to Baseline
Source: Continuum Economics, NiGEM
Baseline
Our baseline view for WTI oil prices for end-2022 is $130 and $110 for end-2023. Our baseline view includes disruption from the ongoing war in Ukraine, which we expect

June 3, 2022 8:34 AM UTC

Figure 1: Brent, European Gas (TTF) and Coal (Ara) (31/12/2019 = 100)
Source: Datastream
OPEC+ Help Not Enough with EU Ban
OPEC+ decision to increase production quota in July and August by 648k barrels p/d will likely be followed later in the year by Saudi Arabia voluntary production increase by