Taiwan Speaker Reduces China/Taiwan War Risk

China will likely be pleased that a pro-China politician from Kuomintang, Han Kuo Yu, has been elected speaker of the Taiwan parliament.  With the DPP in opposition in parliament, divided government means that Taiwan new president will likely focus on domestic issues (e.g. social welfare) and be less likely to rock the boat with China. 

This does not mean that tensions will disappear in the Taiwan straits. The recent death of two China fishermen in the Taiwan straits is causing rising tension between China and Taiwan coastguards.  While this could be controlled, the risk of a misunderstanding always exists and this could escalate tensions. Large scale military exercises around Taiwan also remain highly likely in the spring, ahead of DPP Lai Ching taking power as president on May 20.  However, the exercises may not exceed last year scale or directly challenge Taiwan.  Military strategists also argue that the risk of full scale invasion by China remains low in the next few years, as a seaborne operation would require a much stronger China navy to counterbalance the risk that the U.S. supports Taiwan by blockading key China ports.

Indeed, any invitation for Taiwan’s new speaker to visit China would be a positive signal in cross straits relations.  During the election campaign Lai had said if Han became speaker he would lead KMT mayors to visit China and meet Chinese officials.  This would likely signal that China wants to encourage a dialogue with pro-China politicians in Taiwan, at the same time as maintaining pressure on the DPP president.  Overall, we see the new Taiwan speaker election as reducing the risk still further of a war or blockage in the next 3-4 years.