Outlook Overview
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March 27, 2025
March 26, 2025
Outlook Overview: Navigating the Turbulence
March 26, 2025 9:30 AM UTC
· More tariffs will arrive from the U.S. from April with product (car, pharma, semiconductors and lumber) and reciprocal tariffs. President Trump has a 3-part approach to tariffs to raise (tax) revenue; bring production back to the U.S. and get fairer trade deals. This means some of t
December 30, 2024
December 24, 2024
December Outlook Webinar on Jan 7: The Trump Effect- Tariffs, Fiscal Shifts and Geopolitics
December 24, 2024 8:30 AM UTC
The U.S. economy’s momentum remains reasonable before the impact of President-elect Trump’s policies in 2025 and 2026. While high uncertainty exists on the scale and timing of policy, the strategic bias is clear – sizeable tax cuts that will boost the budget deficit; tariffs (threats
December 20, 2024
December 19, 2024
Outlook Overview: The Trump Effect- Tariffs, Fiscal Shifts and Geopolitics
December 19, 2024 9:25 AM UTC
· The U.S. economy momentum remains reasonable before President elect Trump’s policies impact in 2025 and 2026. While high uncertainty exists on the scale and timing of policies, the strategic bias is clear – sizeable tax cuts that will boost the budget deficit; tariffs (threats
December 18, 2024
Jan 7 Outlook Webinar: The Trump Effect- Tariffs, Fiscal Shifts and Geopolitics
December 18, 2024 1:23 PM UTC
The U.S. economy’s momentum remains reasonable before the impact of President-elect Trump’s policies in 2025 and 2026. While high uncertainty exists on the scale and timing of policy, the strategic bias is clear – sizeable tax cuts that will boost the budget deficit; tariffs (threats
September 27, 2024
September 26, 2024
September 25, 2024
Outlook Overview: Rate Cuts But How Far?
September 25, 2024 7:30 AM UTC
· The U.S. economy is slowing, with the critical question being whether this is a soft or harder landing. Our broad analysis leaves us inclined to the soft landing view into 2025, though we shall watch real sector data closely over the next 3-6 months to check the trajectory. Else
September 15, 2024
September 27 Outlook Webinar: Rate Cuts But How Far?
September 15, 2024 11:17 AM UTC
Uncertainty about whether the U.S. economy will have a soft or hard landing is growing as the market approaches Q4. This is shaping the debate regarding the scale of easing through the remainder of 2024 and 2025 by the Fed. European easing is underway, but how much further will central ba
Sep 27 Outlook Webinar: Rate Cuts But How Far?
September 15, 2024 10:30 AM UTC
Uncertainty about whether the U.S. economy will have a soft or hard landing is growing as the market approaches Q4. This is shaping the debate regarding the scale of easing through the remainder of 2024 and 2025 by the Fed. European easing is underway, but how much further will central ba
June 26, 2024
June 25, 2024
Outlook Overview: Cyclical and Structural Forces
June 25, 2024 10:15 AM UTC
• The global economy is showing signs of healing, as inflation comes back towards targets and growth recovers momentum in some economies. Nevertheless, the cyclical headwind of lagged monetary tightening remains in DM countries, and will likely be one of the forces slowing the U.S. economy
April 03, 2024
March 27, 2024
March 25, 2024
December 20, 2023
September 29, 2023
August 02, 2023
U.S. and EZ Government Bond Yields and Peaking Rates
August 2, 2023 7:52 AM UTC
Bottom Line: We feel that the Fed is getting close to peaking and the ECB has already peaked with the July rate hike. However, this is already priced into 2yr yields, with the current discount to policy rates, and we see 2yr U.S. Treasuries and Bunds to 4.8% and 3.05% by end 2023 respectively. Inver
June 28, 2023
June 23, 2023
June 22, 2023
Outlook Overview: Headline Inflation Slowing, Core Inflation and Policy Rates in Focus
June 22, 2023 10:29 AM UTC
DM countries are seeing headline inflation rates come down helped by lower energy prices than 2022, but the downward progress on core inflation is slower. DM central banks are worried that multi-year inflation targets will not be hit, which is leaving some final tightening to be delivered; a tighten