Economic Data and Events Week Ahead July 13-17
The most significant release of the week wis likely to be June’s CPI on Tuesday, which we expect to be unchanged overall, but with a slightly firmer 0.3% rise ex food and energy, 0.26% before rounding. The CPI could however be overshadowed by testimony from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh to the House Financial Services Committee due 90 minutes later, even if he continues to decline forward guidance.
Data and events for the week ahead
USA
The US releases June budget data on Monday and June’s NFIB small business survey on Tuesday. The most significant release of the week wis likely to be June’s CPI on Tuesday, which we expect to be unchanged overall, but with a slightly firmer 0.3% rise ex food and energy, 0.26% before rounding. The CPI could however be overshadowed by testimony from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh to the House Financial Services Committee due 90 minutes later, even if he continues to decline forward guidance. June PPI is due on Wednesday, which we also expect to be unchanged overall, but with 0.4% increases in the core rates, both ex food and energy and ex food, energy and trade. July’s Empire State manufacturing report is also due on Wednesday, with the Philly Fed’s following on Thursday.
Also due on Thursday are weekly initial claims and June retail sales. The latter will be watched to see if recent consumer resilience persists. We expect a 0.2% decline overall and a 0.4% decline ex autos, but a 0.2% increase ex autos and gasoline. May business inventories, where existing data suggests a rise of 0.6%, July’s NAHB homebuilders’ index, and June pending home sales follow. On Friday we expect June housing starts to rise by 13.0% to 1.33m after a 15.4% May decline, while permits fall by 2.1% to 1.38m after a 0.9% May decline. June industrial production follows, which we expect to be unchanged overall with a 0.1% rise in manufacturing. Friday also sees the preliminary July Michigan CSI, which may see support from lower gasoline prices.
CANADA
The Bank of Canada meets on Wednesday, and looks set to leave rates unchanged at 2.25%. They have stated that they are willing to tighten if higher energy costs feed into underlying inflation or ease if the US imposes fresh tariffs. The former risk has faded somewhat, which may see greater emphasis put on the latter. Canadian data includes May manufacturing and wholesale sales on Wednesday, for which respective preliminary estimates were for a 1.1% increase and a 0.7% decline (ex-petroleum for the latter). Also due are June existing home sales on Wednesday and June housing starts on Thursday.
UK
May’s GDP data may show conflicting signals, with a 0.1% m/m still consistent with Q2 growing by 0.2%, absent revisions of course. The usual accompanying data, including vis Trade, services and construction may also paint a differ picture. Otherwise, BoE Governor Bailey speaks (Mon).
Eurozone
Data wise, final HICP numbers, trade and industrial production all arrive Thursday. Thursday sees an ECB gathering, with at least three speeches.
Rest of Western Europe
There are a few key events in Sweden, not least what were near-unchanged headline June CPI flash numbers, such an outcome chiming with the Riksbank latest projection.
JP
Quiet calendar for Japan next week. Bunch of tier two data only. The blunt of energy is unlikely to be reflected in industrial production just yet.
AU
The Summer quietness creeping in. Consumer confidence on Tuesday and inflation expectation on Thursday are the only releases for Australia.
NZ
Business PSI on Monday, business confidence on Tuesday concludes the calendar for Kiwi.