DM Data Weekly Oct 12-16

Data Week Ahead 

USA

Monday sees no significant US data due to the partial holiday for Columbus Day, though Fed’s Hammack will speak. On Tuesday we expect a marginal upwards correction of 0.5% in September existing home sales to 4.00m. September’s NFIB small business survey is also due, while Fed’s Collins will speak. The key release of the week will be September CPI on Wednesday. We expect a strong 0.6% increase overall, but a moderate 0.2% rise ex food and energy, 0.19% before rounding. The latter would probably allow the Fed to pause on rates at the October 29 meeting.

On a busy Thursday we also expect September’s PPI to increase by 0.6%, but with a 0.3% increase ex food and energy. At the same time we expect a weak September retail sales report, up 0.1% overall and 0.4% ex autos, but down by 0.1% ex autos and gasoline. Weekly initial claims, as well as October’s manufacturing surveys from the Philly Fed and Empire State are also due. August business inventories follow, where existing data imply a rise of 0.4%. Fed’s Hammack will speak again on Thursday. On Friday September import prices are due, followed by September industrial production, where we expect a 1.0% rise overall with manufacturing up by 0.6%, bouncing back from a weak August.

Canada 

In Canada, August building permits are due on Wednesday with September housing starts and existing home sales following on Friday. On Thursday August manufacturing and wholesale sales are due. Respective preliminary estimates show a rise of 1.1% and a fall of 1.5%.

Eurozone

In the EZ, the 2027 French budget debate starting October 13 is the major event this week.  Next week’s data calendar looks pretty thin with industrial production for August likely to be the highlight. The consensus forecast is for a small month on month rebound of 0.3% after two consecutive monthly declines of -0.1% in June and July. Figures already out for Germany and France back the likely modest improvement in Eurozone production. Industrial output rebounded strongly in Germany (2% m/m, from -1.2% m/m in July) driven by strong activity in construction and manufacturing, while production in the automotive sector weakened, probably as a result of the summer holidays. In France, industrial output declined -0.3% m/m in August driven by a large drop of -2.4% m/m as a result of lower electricity output following a weather-driven surge in July.

UK

Thursday sees the release of monthly GDP covering August with consensus expecting a gain of 0.1% m/m from the 0.4% m/m increase reported in July. GDP also grew 0.4% in the 3 months to July relative to the previous 3 months (Feb-April). Recall that July’s month on monthly GDP gain was driven by growth of 0.4% in the services sector, particularly admin services, and computer programming and consulting.

The 3 BoE hawks for voted for a hike in September (Green, Mann, Pill) are due to speak next week at separate events with Governor Bailey attending an IIF meeting on Friday 16th October. Mann speaks on the 12th October, Green 13th, Pill twice on the 14th and 15th.

Japan

A 2nd tier data week, with September PPI on Tuesday and expected to remain close to 7.6% Yr/Yr seen in August.  Final industrial production is due on Thursday.  

Australia

September employment data is the highlight, with a 16k rise in employment expected on Thursday.