Ukraine War Update: Surprising Ukraine Incursion in Russia

Figure 1: The Military Situation in Kursk Oblast, August 11

Source: Institute for the Study of War (ISW)

Ukraine’s Surprise Attack into Russia

Ukraine conducted a cross-border offensive inside Russia's western Kursk region on August 6, and penetrated more than 30 kilometres (km) past the Ukraine-Russia border. Fighting was said to be taking place in three villages between 11 and 18 km from the border – Ivashkovskoye, Malaya Loknya and Olgovka. Following the incursion, Russia’s domestic security agency imposed a counter-terrorism regime on Kursk and two neighbouring oblasts, Bryansk and Belgorod, giving the authorities sweeping powers to lock down an area and impose controls on communications.

President Zelensky confirmed on August 10 that they started a cross-border offensive into Russia, and top Ukrainian commander Syrskyi mentioned the same day that “Ukraine is proving that it can really bring justice and guarantees exactly the kind of pressure that is needed – pressure on the aggressor.”

On the Russian front, Ministry of Defence acknowledged on August 11 that Ukrainian troops are 25-30 km inside the border. The Ministry of Emergency Situations announced that more than 76,000 residents were evacuated from the Kursk region, and tight security measures were imposed in the Kursk, Bryansk and Belgorod regions. In response to the attack, Russia’s foreign ministry spokesperson Zakharova stated on August 11 that there would be a tough response to the incursion. (Note: Russia launched an air attack on Kyiv early August 11 while Kyiv mayor, Vitali Klitschko underscored that it was not immediately clear if the attack caused any damage or injuries).

Despite the exact aims of the operation remain unclear, military analysts consider that Ukraine is willing to push Russia to draw some of its forces away from eastern Donetsk region, and hoping to gain a bargaining chip ahead of possible ceasefire talks with Russia. It appears the operation has demonstrated that Russia’s border defenses are weak, and has given Ukrainian troops a morale boost. Since the incursion started, Russian rouble has lost around 6% of its value against the U.S. dollar.

On the Edge: Fire at Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, Kursk Nuclear Power Station is at Risk

A fire broke out at the Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant in Ukraine on August 10, which was contained afterwards. Moscow and Kyiv were fast in accusing each other of starting the fire. Ukrainian head of the military administration Yevtushenko alleged that Russian forces set fire to a large number of automobile tires in cooling towers, while Evgeny Balitsky, a Russian-installed official, accused Kyiv’s forces of causing it by shelling the nearby city of Enerhodar. Later President Zelensky stated that there was no detected radiation spike or danger of a nuclear leak.

The current concern with respect to Ukraine’s incursion is the threats to Kursk nuclear power station, which is less than 50 kilometres from the fighting zone in Russia. According to BBC, Russia is building new defensive trench lines in the Kursk region, not far from a nuclear power plant.

Peace Talks Can Still Start in 2025: U.S. Presidential Election Will Set the Scene

Despite recent deliveries of U.S. military assistance, EU support, and arrival of F16s into Ukraine, Russian counteroffensives in the summer are alleged to be stronger and disruptive. Russian counter-offensives in the northwestern regions of Kharkiv, Donetsk region and Sumy continue with pace. According to sources, Russian forces already made significant tactical gains and the tempo of Russian offensive operations is currently higher in Kreminna, near Kupyansk, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, and Donetsk City.

We foresee Ukraine could gain a bargaining chip ahead of possible ceasefire talks, likely in 2025, if the incursion will successfully continue in the following weeks. We foresee it is unlikely that Russia will allow Ukrainian forces to go too far, as we expect a strong Russian response in the next days in Kursk region, which will likely slow down the pace of some of the Russian operations in Ukraine. Russia will probably fire missiles and execute more drone attacks into Ukraine territory, while the use of tactical nuclear weapons remains unlikely for now.

Taking into account that the operation has demonstrated that Russia’s border defenses are weak to respond to further Ukrainian cross-border incursions, Moscow’s response shall now consider the manpower and materiel requirements for defending the thousand-kilometer-long international border with northeastern Ukraine, and can therefore impose long-term operational planning constraints that Russia previously did not face, as reported by ISW.

We continue to think the U.S. presidential elections would set the scene in Ukraine, and we envisage the former U.S. President Trump would not be expected to provide firm backing for Ukraine, if elected. President Putin will continue to wait for the possibility of a Trump win and splits western support and leading to a Russia friendly peace deal with current territories, but the impacts of the incursion in the next couple of weeks could moderately change the game, likely less land to Russia in 4 occupied regions. The key will be how the incursion goes, and how strong Russia responds.