Canada February GDP - Q1 looking less positive than previously projected
February Canadian GDP saw a second straight rise, but at 0.2% was below the 0.4% projected with January’s data and January was revised down to a 0.5% increase from 0.6%. The advance estimate for March is unchanged, which would leave a 0.6% rise (2.5% annualized) in Q1.
Such a quarterly increase would be slightly below a 2.8% annualized estimate made with the Bank of Canada’s April Monetary Policy Report, and not very impressive given that Q1’s 1.0% annualized increase was restrained by public sector strikes in Quebec. These restrained November and December monthly data with their ending explaining much of the increase in January.
February data showed goods unchanged with mining reversing a large January decline and utilities reversing a large January increase. Manufacturing saw a modest 0.4% decline after a 0.5% January increase. Services rose by 0.2% led by a 1.4% rise in transport and warehousing.
Yr/yr growth was stable at 0.8%. This is a subdued pace but fears that the economy might be slipping into recession that built during 2023 have faded.
