Canada April GDP - Q2 heading for a respectable gain
April Canadian GDP with a 0.3% ruse was in line with expectations and the preliminary estimate made with March’s data. The preliminary estimate for May is a 0.1% increase. If May rises by 0.1% and June is flat Q2 would rise by 1.8% annualized, slightly above a 1.5% forecast that the BoC made in April.
In April goods and services both rose by 0.3%, goods led by a 1.8% rise in mining while services were supported by gains of 2.0% in wholesale and 1.2% in accommodation/food services, both rebounding from weak March data. Wholesale, like manufacturing, benefited from the end of auto retooling that restrained March data.
In May wholesale and retail are expected to slip, but gains are seen in manufacturing, real estate/rental/leasing and finance/insurance. April’s yr/yr gain of 1.1% remains unimpressive, but is at an 11-month high. Worries over recession have faded.
